Hydrometeorological Variables Research Articles

Standardized Innovative Polygon Trend Analysis for Climate Change Assessment (S-IPTA)

AbstractResearch and applications on trend analysis have recently been on the agenda and are top priorities in many disciplines due to the effects of climate change. After a thorough evaluation of the literature, it is noted that different hydro-meteorological variables, such as precipitation, temperature, etc., are studied and analyzed individually. This research proposes a new innovative polygon trend analysis application (S-IPTA) using the standardization concept to fill this gap in classical trend applications and comprehensively compare the trends of different variables to temporal and spatial patterns. Firstly, using statistical standardization, S-IPTA adjusts the original data sets and makes them dimensionless. Then, the innovative trend analyses are conducted and interpreted on one single graph (S-IPTA). The S-IPTA methodology is applied to monthly precipitation and temperature time series of Konya Basin in Türkiye at ten meteorological stations between 1959 and 2022. For precipitation, the S-IPTA did not exhibit a consistent polygon across all stations within the study area, while the temperature polygon was more regular, indicating that the temperature mean was generally stable with a positive trend. Also, S-IPTA shows the difference between the average value for each month and the newly proposed long-term average value (0). S-IPTA also provides a basis for a better interpretation of climate change and its effects by providing a common denominator for various trend characteristics, such as trend magnitudes and trend transitions in different hydro-meteorological time series.

Trends of meteorological and hydrological droughts and associated parameters using innovative approaches

Climate change and drought have profound effects on hydro-meteorological series. In addition to spatial, these effects could be on annual, seasonal, monthly, or daily temporal scales. In the literature, seasonal Mann-Kendall and Kendall Tau, Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), and Standardized Runoff Index are mostly used to detect seasonal effects (autumn, winter, spring, and summer), despite some restrictive assumption. Innovative Polygon Trend Analysis (IPTA) method developed from Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA) analyzes monthly effects on hydro-meteorological variables without restrictive assumptions. In this study, the IPTA method is revised and developed as Periodic Innovative Polygon Trend analysis (P-IPTA) to analyze hydro-meteorological series in periods of 1, 3, 6, 9, and 12 months instead of one-month duration. The method turns to the IPTA for one-month evaluations. Also, ITA method is improved by adding the frequencies for each drought classification (F-ITA). For the precipitation and water availability (Istanbul, Türkiye) and stream flow (Danube River, Romania) series, the P-IPTA method has been used in addition to the SPI, SPEI, and SDI methods to detect the trends in meteorological and hydrological droughts, and their associated parameters. There are generally decreasing trends, increasing drought frequencies, and decreasing wet event frequencies in the study areas. As the period lengths of the hydro-meteorological series increase, drought becomes more evident. Unlike these methods, the method results are consistent with the F-ITA SPI, SPEI, and SDI graphs and can give drought and wet periods. Similarly, the new P-IPTA method will enable researchers to investigate seasonal effects not only on hydro-meteorological series but also on any variable.

Trend Analysis of Hydro-Meteorological Variables in the Wadi Ouahrane Basin, Algeria

In recent decades, a plethora of natural disasters, including floods, storms, heat waves, droughts, and various other weather-related events, have brought destruction worldwide. In particular, Algeria is facing several natural hydrometeorological and geological hazards. In this study, meteorological parameters (precipitation, temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and sunshine) and runoff data were analyzed for the Wadi Ouahrane basin (northern Algeria), into which drains much of the surrounding agricultural land and is susceptible to floods. In particular, a trend analysis was performed using the Mann–Kendall (MK) test, the Sen’s slope estimator, and the Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA) method to detect possible trends in the time series over the period 1972/73–2017/2018. The results revealed significant trends in several hydro-meteorological variables. In particular, neither annual nor monthly precipitation showed a clear tendency, thus failing to indicate potential changes in the rainfall patterns. Temperature evidenced a warming trend, indicating a potential shift in the local climate, while streamflow revealed a decreasing trend, reflecting the complex interaction between precipitation and other hydrological factors.

Compound and consecutive drought-flood events at a global scale

Flooding during or after droughts poses significant challenges to disaster risk management. However, interactions between droughts and floods are often overlooked as studies typically analyse these events in isolation. Here we explore historical occurrences of compound and consecutive drought-flood events and drought effects on flood severity and timing by analysing global datasets of hydrometeorological and biophysical variables for 8255 catchments worldwide. These data show that 24% of floods globally (anomalies above the 85th percentile) are preceded by, or happen during, drought conditions. Flood events occurring during drought conditions are typically of lower magnitude, especially in arid regions, while floods following drought events have a severity distribution comparable to single flood events. For most drought-flood events, flood timing appears relatively unaffected by drought conditions, but almost a quarter of the drought-flood events had flood timings occurring two to three months later than expected. These shifts in flood timing suggest droughts potentially affect flood-generating processes. As both drought and flood occurrences are projected to increase in a warming climate, interactions between them may become more common and need to be accounted for in flood risk assessment and management.

Northern Pacific sea-level pressure controls rain-on-snow in North America

Rain-on-snow (ROS) events, a phenomenon of liquid rainfall falling over accumulated snowpack, cause quick melting of snow, often leading to rapid and catastrophic flooding. Here we explore the causal drivers of ROS events across North America. A ROS identification method is proposed, which builds on the existing methods but adds more realism in terms of rain and snow conditions for ROS occurrence. We consider a wide range of observed hydrometeorological variables along with climatic oscillations over the period of 1951 to 2022. Causal linkages between the potential drivers and ROS frequency are explored by implementing Convergent Cross Mapping (CCM). Results suggest a strong causal link between the North-Pacific (NP) Index, a measure of sea-level pressure in the Northern Pacific Ocean, and ROS frequencies in North America, specifically in the eastern and western parts. We show the association of the NP index with the hydroclimatic variables and explain how this association might have contributed to this causal link. Thus, our findings provide valuable insights into the potential mechanisms of ROS events in different regions in North America.

Evapotranspiration evaluation using three different protocols on a large green roof in the greater Paris area

Abstract. Nature-based solutions have appeared as relevant solutions to mitigate urban heat islands. To improve our knowledge of the assessment of this ecosystem service and the related physical processes (evapotranspiration), monitoring campaigns are required. This was the objective of several experiments carried out on the Blue Green Wave, a large green roof located in Champs-sur-Marne (France). Three different protocols were implemented and tested to assess the evapotranspiration flux at different scales: the first one was based on the surface energy balance (large scale); the second one was carried out using an evapotranspiration chamber (small scale); and the third one was based on the water balance evaluated during dry periods (point scale). In addition to these evapotranspiration estimates, several hydrometeorological variables (especially temperature) were measured. Related data and Python programs providing preliminary elements of the analysis and graphical representation have been made available. They illustrate the space–time variability in the studied processes regarding their observation scale. The dataset is available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8064053 (Versini et al., 2023).

Influence of hydrometeorological risk factors on child diarrhea and enteropathogens in rural Bangladesh.

A number of studies have detected relationships between weather and diarrhea. Few have investigated associations with specific enteric pathogens. Understanding pathogen-specific relationships with weather is crucial to inform public health in low-resource settings that are especially vulnerable to climate change. Our objectives were to identify weather and environmental risk factors associated with diarrhea and enteropathogen prevalence in young children in rural Bangladesh, a population with high diarrheal disease burden and vulnerability to weather shifts under climate change. We matched temperature, precipitation, surface water, and humidity data to observational longitudinal data from a cluster-randomized trial that measured diarrhea and enteropathogen prevalence in children 6 months-5.5 years from 2012-2016. We fit generalized additive mixed models with cubic regression splines and restricted maximum likelihood estimation for smoothing parameters. Comparing weeks with 30°C versus 15°C average temperature, prevalence was 3.5% higher for diarrhea, 7.3% higher for Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC), 17.3% higher for enterotoxigenic E. coli (ETEC), and 8.0% higher for Cryptosporidium. Above-median weekly precipitation (median: 13mm; range: 0-396mm) was associated with 29% higher diarrhea (adjusted prevalence ratio 1.29, 95% CI 1.07, 1.55); higher Cryptosporidium, ETEC, STEC, Shigella, Campylobacter, Aeromonas, and adenovirus 40/41; and lower Giardia, sapovirus, and norovirus prevalence. Other associations were weak or null. Higher temperatures and precipitation were associated with higher prevalence of diarrhea and multiple enteropathogens; higher precipitation was associated with lower prevalence of some enteric viruses. Our findings emphasize the heterogeneity of the relationships between hydrometeorological variables and specific enteropathogens, which can be masked when looking at composite measures like all-cause diarrhea. Our results suggest that preventive interventions targeted to reduce enteropathogens just before and during the rainy season may more effectively reduce child diarrhea and enteric pathogen carriage in rural Bangladesh and in settings with similar meteorological characteristics, infrastructure, and enteropathogen transmission.

Investigating the Morphometry and Hydrometeorological Variability of a Fragile Tropical Karstic Lake of the Yucatán Peninsula: Bacalar Lagoon

Comprehensive morphometric and hydrometeorological studies on Bacalar Lagoon, Mexico’s largest tropical karstic lake and a significant aquatic system of the Yucatán Peninsula, are lacking. This study provides a detailed analysis of its bathymetry, morphometry, and hydrometeorological characteristics. The lake’s main basin stretches more than 52.7 km in length, with widths varying from 0.18 km to 2.28 km. It has a volume of 554.4 million cubic meters, with an average depth of 8.85 m, reaching depths of up to 26 m in the north and featuring sub-lacustrine dolines in the south, with depths of 38 m, 48.5 m, and 63.6 m. The study reveals seasonal variations in surface water temperature, closely linked to air temperature (r = 0.89), and immediate responses of water levels to hydrometeorological events. Water level fluctuations also exhibit seasonal patterns that are correlated with regional aquifer conditions, with a lag of 2 months after seasonal rainfall. Interannual variability in rainfall and water levels was observed. From 2010 to 2012, rainfall consistently remained below its mean climatic value, due to a prolonged La Niña event, while the exceptionally wet conditions in 2020 were also associated with La Niña. Extreme and anomalous hydrometeorological events, such as those following tropical storm Cristobal in 2020, revealed the fragility of Bacalar Lagoon, causing a notable transformation in lake color and transparency, shifting it from its typical oligotrophic state to eutrophic conditions that lasted longer than a year. These color changes raise questions about the factors impacting ecological health in tropical karstic regions. Additional factors affecting water quality in the BL in 2020, such as deforestation, coastline changes, and urban growth, warrant further investigation. Our study can serve as a starting landmark.

A global dataset of terrestrial evapotranspiration and soil moisture dynamics from 1982 to 2020

Quantifying terrestrial evapotranspiration (ET) and soil moisture dynamics accurately is crucial for understanding the global water cycle and surface energy balance. We present a novel, long-term dataset of global ET and soil moisture derived from the newly developed Simple Terrestrial Hydrosphere model, version 2 (SiTHv2). This ecohydrological model, driven by multi-source satellite observations and hydrometeorological variables from reanalysis data, provides daily global ET-related estimates (e.g., total ET, plant transpiration, soil evaporation, intercepted evaporation) and three-layer soil moisture dynamics at a 0.1° spatial resolution. Validation with in-situ measurements and comparisons with mainstream global ET and soil moisture products demonstrate robust performance of SiTHv2 in both magnitude and temporal dynamics of ET and soil moisture at multiple scales. The comprehensive water path characterization in the SiTHv2 model makes this seamless dataset particularly valuable for studies requiring synchronized water budget and vegetation response to water constraints. With its long-term coverage and high spatiotemporal resolution, the SiTHv2-derived ET and soil moisture product will be suitable to support analyses related to the hydrologic cycle, drought assessment, and ecosystem health.

Winter harvesting reduces methane emissions and enhances blue carbon potential in coastal phragmites wetlands

Enhancing the ability of coastal blue carbon to accumulate and store carbon and reduce net greenhouse gas emissions is an essential component of a comprehensive approach for tackling climate change. The annual winter harvesting of Phragmites is common worldwide. However, the effects of harvesting on methane (CH4) emissions and its potential as an effective blue carbon management strategy have rarely been reported. In this study, the effects of winter Phragmites harvesting on the CH4 and carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes and the underlying mechanisms in coastal Phragmites wetlands were investigated by comparing the eddy covariance flux measurements for three coastal wetlands with different harvesting and tidal flow conditions. The results show that harvesting can greatly reduce the CH4 emissions and the radiative forcing of CH4 and CO2 fluxes in coastal Phragmites wetlands, suggesting that winter Phragmites harvesting has great potential as a nature-based strategy to mitigate global warming. The monthly mean CH4 fluxes were predominantly driven by air temperature, gross primary productivity, and latent heat fluxes, which are related to vegetation phenology. Additionally, variations in the salinity and water levels exerted strong regulation effects on CH4 emissions, highlighting the important role of proper tidal flow restoration and resalinization in enhancing blue carbon sequestration potential. Compared with the natural, tidally unrestricted wetlands, the CH4 fluxes in the impounded wetland were less strongly correlated with hydrometeorological variables, implying the increased difficulties of predicting CH4 variations in impounded ecosystem. This study facilitates the improved understanding of carbon exchange in coastal Phragmites wetlands with harvesting or impoundment, and provides new insights into effective blue carbon management strategies beyond tidal wetland restoration for mitigating the effects of climate change.

Evaluation of the fully coupled WRF and WRF-Hydro modelling system initiated with satellite-based soil moisture data

ABSTRACT This study comparatively evaluates the skill of the (un)coupled Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) – WRF-Hydro system supported with satellite-based soil moisture initiation in long-term simulations of hydrometeorological variables under humid and semi-arid climate conditions. Prior to the coupling, the WRF-Hydro model is calibrated using streamflow data at different data scales (i.e. hourly and daily) to discuss the influences of the changing temporal resolution of the reference dataset on the optimum parameter values. According to the results, fully coupled models correct the location and magnitude of the occurrence of hourly extreme precipitation. Changing the initial soil moisture data source affects the terrestrial water cycle elements in the semi-arid region (i.e. Mediterranean (MED)) more than in the humid area (i.e. Eastern Black Sea (EBS)), especially in spring and summer. The initiation of the coupled model with satellite-based soil moisture improves the streamflow outputs after a reasonable spin-up period for the MED region.

Contribution of climatic variables and their interactions to reference evapotranspiration changes considering freeze-thaw cycles in the Tibetan Plateau during 1960–2022

While the direct impact of climate change on reference evapotranspiration (ET0) has been extensively studied, there is limited research on the indirect impact resulting from the interaction between climatic variables. This gap hinders a comprehensive understanding of climate change effects on ET0. Additionally, there is scarce exploration into the quantitative effect of freeze-thaw cycles on ET0 variation. In this study, we employed path analysis and dependent variable variance decomposition methods to discern the direct and interactive effects of climatic variables on ET0 in the Tibetan Plateau from 1960 to 2022. Annual ET0 exhibited variation across basins, with the coefficient of variability during the thawed period smaller than that during the non-thawed period. On an annual scale, the largest contribution to ET0 variation came from water vapor pressure deficit (VPD) at 47.7%. This contribution was amplified by its coupled interaction with temperature (T) at 47.1%, although the contribution was partially offset by the interactive effects of VPD with downward shortwave radiation and wind speed at −2.4% and − 27.6%, respectively. During different freezing-thawing periods, VPD primarily controlled ET0 variation, with its interaction with other climatic variables enhancing its impact. Furthermore, soil moisture, influenced by freeze-thaw cycles, exhibited a strong correlation with T and VPD, indicating the significant effect of freeze-thaw cycles on ET0 variation. The weak correlation between ET0 and NDVI suggested that vegetation growth had a limited regulatory effect on ET0. These findings provide valuable insights into the impact of interactions between climatic variables on hydrological processes, enhancing our understanding of the interactive roles of hydrometeorological variables.

Dynamic Bayesian-Network-Based Approach to Enhance the Performance of Monthly Streamflow Prediction Considering Nonstationarity

In recognizing the pervasive nonstationarity of hydrometeorological variables, a paradigm shift towards alternative analytical methodologies is imperative for refining hydroclimatic data modeling and prediction. We introduce a novel approach leveraging nonstationary Graphical Modeling and Bayesian Networks (NGM-BNs) tailored for hydrometeorological applications. Demonstrated through monthly streamflow forecasting in the Kashgar River Basin of China, our method illuminates the temporal evolution of network relationships, underscoring the dynamism inherent in both input variables and modeling parameters. The key to our approach is identifying the most suitable time horizon (MST) for model updates, which is intricately problem-specific and crucial for peak performance. This methodology not only unveils changing predictor significance across varying flow conditions but also elucidates the fluctuating temporal links between variables, especially under the lens of climate change, for instance, the growing impact of snowmelt on the Kashgar Basin’s streamflow. Compared to stationary counterparts, our nonstationary Bayesian framework excels in capturing extreme events by adeptly accommodating temporal shifts, outperforming traditional models including both stationary and nonstationary variants of Support Vector Regression (SVR) and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference Systems (ANFIS).

A framework to evaluate the impact of a hazard chain and geographical covariates on spatial extreme water levels: A case study in the Pearl River Delta

The interactions and collective impacts of different types of hazards within a compound hazard system, along with the influence of geographical covariates on flooding are presently unclear. Understanding these relationships is crucial for comprehending the formation and dynamic processes of the hazard chain and improving the ability to identify flood warning signals in complex hazard scenarios. In this study, we presented a multivariate spatial extreme value hierarchical (MSEVH) framework to assess the spatial extreme water levels (EWL) at different return levels under the influence of a hazard chain and geographical covariates. The Pearl River Delta (PRD) was selected as a research example to assess the effectiveness of the MSEVH framework. Firstly, we identified a hazard chain (extreme streamflow from the Xijiang River (XR) - extreme streamflow from the Beijiang River (BR) - extreme sea level) and three geographical covariates influencing EWL in the PRD. Then, we compared four hazard scenarios in the MSEVH framework to evaluate the spatial EWL at different return levels under the influence of the hazard chain in the PRD. The final step involves assessing spatial EWL with the effect of the hazard chain and geographical covariates. The results indicate that when extreme streamflow from XR and BR occurs concurrently, the extreme streamflow from BR weakens the influence of extreme streamflow from XR on EWL in the PRD. However, it cannot fully offset the overall impact of extreme streamflow from XR on EWL. In addition, when extreme streamflow from XR, extreme streamflow from BR, and extreme sea level occur simultaneously, the extreme sea level enhances the influence of concurrent extreme streamflow from XR and BR on EWL in the PRD. The proposed MSEVH is not only applicable to the PRD but also shows promising potential for evaluating extreme hydrometeorological variables under the influence of other hazard chains.

Statistical Analysis and Scenario Modeling of Non-Stationary Runoff Change in the Loess Plateau: A Novel Application of the Generalized Additive Model in Location, Scale and Shape

The hydrological series in the Loess Plateau region has exhibited shifts in trend, mean, and/or variance as the environmental conditions have changed, indicating a departure from the assumption of stationarity. As the variations accumulate, the compound effects caused by the driving variables on runoff variations grow complex and interactive, posing a substantial risk to water security and the promotion of high-quality development in regions or river basins. This study focuses on the Tuwei River Basin in the Loess Plateau, which experiences significant changes in vegetation coverage and minimal human disturbance, and examines the cross-driving relationship between the runoff change and its driving variables (including hydrometeorological and environmental variables). A quantitative statistical analysis method based on the GAMLSS is then developed to estimate the interacting effects of changes in the driving variables and their contribution to runoff changes. Finally, various anticipated scenarios are used to simulate the changes in driving variables and runoff disturbances. The findings indicate the following: (1) The developed GU, LO, and NO distribution-based GAMLSSs provide a notable advantage in effectively capturing the variations in groundwater storage variables, actual evapotranspiration, and underlying surface parameters, as well as accurately estimating the impacts of other relevant variables. (2) The precipitation and groundwater storage variables showed predominantly positive contributions to the runoff change, but actual evapotranspiration had an adverse effect. The changes in underlying surface parameters, particularly since 2000, increase actual evapotranspiration, while decreasing groundwater storage, resulting in a progressive decrease in runoff as their contribution grows. (3) The scenario simulation results reveal that alterations to the underlying surface have a substantial influence on the evolution of runoff in the Tuwei River Basin. Additionally, there are cross-effects between the impact of various driving variables on runoff, potentially compounding the complexity of inconsistent changes in runoff sequences.

Hydro-meteorological factors and inflowing nutrients drive water quality in an impounded lake of China's South-to-North Water Diversion Project.

Freshwater lakes play a vital role in global hydrological and biogeochemical cycles, serving various functions and maintaining ecological balance. However, freshwater resources are more vulnerable to deterioration due to multiple stressors. Gaoyou Lake is one of the impounded lakes of the Eastern route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project in China, and as an important source of drinking water, the lake has been routinely monitored. Long-term monitoring of water quality in Gaoyou Lake showed that concentrations of nutrients and chlorophyll a as well as trophic state in the water column increased while water transparency decreased, indicating that the water quality has declined during the last 12years. Specifically, there was a notable and statistically significant increase in chlorophyll a concentrations, averaging an annual rate of 9.9%. Despite a slight decline in trophic level index until 2014, subsequent years saw an upward trend, ranging from 50.7 to 56.4 and indicating a light eutrophic state. Spatially, the western area displayed higher nutrient and chlorophyll a concentrations. Changes in hydro-meteorological variables and nutrients from inflowing rivers were the main factors correlated with water quality in Gaoyou Lake. Thus, pollution source apportionment and management within Huaihe River basin should be considered to reduce the external loadings of nutrients in order to improve and sustain long-term water quality.

Browning from headwaters to coastal areas in the boreal region: Trends and drivers

Browning of freshwaters, mainly caused by increased terrestrial organic carbon loading, has been widely studied during the last decades. However, there are still uncertainties regarding both the extent of browning in different aquatic ecosystems and the actual importance of different driving forces and mechanisms. To refine understanding of the extent and causes of browning and its temporal variation, we gathered a comprehensive dataset including 746 Finnish water quality monitoring stations representing various waterbody types: streams, rivers, lakes, and coastal waters. Monotonic trend analyses revealed that TOC concentrations increased in all waterbody types during the study period from 1990 to 2020, whereas non-linear trends indicated that upward trends in TOC concentrations have substantially decreased since the mid-2000s. However, despite the upward trends levelling off, non-linear analyses also indicated decreases in TOC concentrations at only a few stations. As a result, the TOC contents of the majority of Finnish waterbody types in 2020 were at a higher level than in 1990. To examine the driving forces of increasing TOC concentrations, we selected 100 riverine catchments and linked the detected trends to 24 different drivers, including both hydrometeorological and catchment characteristics. The increased TOC concentrations in surface waters could be connected to diverse human impacts: hydrometeorological variables impacted by climate change, decreased acidic deposition, and land use in terms of peatland drainage. The importance of increased temperatures was emphasized, and its role as a driver of increased leaching of organic carbon in the forthcoming years is expected to grow with climate change.

Investigating First Flush Occurrence in Agro-Urban Environments in Northern Italy

The first flush (FF) phenomenon is commonly associated with a relevant load of pollutants, raising concerns about water quality and environmental management in agro-urban areas. An FF event can potentially transport contaminated water into a receiving water body by activating combined sewer overflow (CSO) systems present in the drainage urban network. Therefore, accurately characterizing FF events is crucial for the effective management of sewer systems and for limiting environmental degradation. Given the ongoing controversy in the literature regarding the delineation of FF event occurrences, there is an unavoidable necessity for further investigations, especially experimental-based ones. This study presents the outcomes of an almost two-year field campaign focused on assessing the water quantity and quality of two combined sewer systems in Northern Italy. For this purpose, various hydro-meteorological variables, including precipitation, flow rate, temperature, and solar radiation, in addition to water quality analytics, were measured continuously to capture stormwater events. Throughout the monitoring period, sixteen stormwater events were identified and analyzed using five indices usually adopted in the literature to identify FF occurrences. The results indicate that there is a strong positive correlation between the mass first flush ratios calculated for nutrients and three factors, including maximum rainfall intensity, maximum flow rate, and antecedent dry weather period. Furthermore, rainfall duration was found to possess a strong negative correlation with the mass first flush ratios calculated for nutrients. However, for the same rainfall event, the occurrence of FF has never been unanimously confirmed by the indices examined in this study. Moreover, different macro-groups of pollutants can behave differently. Thus, it becomes apparent that relying solely on a priori analyses, without the support of data from experimental monitoring campaigns, poses a risk when designing actions for the mitigation of FF occurrences.

Responses of annual streamflow variability to annual precipitation, extreme climate events and large-scale climate phenomena in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Solar activity and large-scale climate phenomena have significant effects on extreme climate events and streamflow variability. As the roof of the world and the water tower of Asia, the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) is highly sensitive to climate change. Therefore, it is of great significance to study the relationship between extreme hydrometeorological events of the QTP and climate change for global hydroclimate research. In this study, we analyzed the spatiotemporal variation and significant oscillation period of several hydrometeorological variables such as extreme precipitation indices (EPIs), extreme temperature indices (ETIs) and annual streamflow variability based on the observation data of hydrometeorological stations in the QTP during 1962–2019 using Sen’s slope estimator, Mann-Kendall test and continuous wavelet analysis (CWT). And the teleconnection patterns and the lead-lag relationship between annual precipitation, extreme climate events, multiple nonstationary climate mode and annual streamflow were evaluated using wavelet coherence (WTC). The results show that the climate of the QTP has been wetter and warmer in the past 58 years. The annual streamflow of several natural rivers in the QTP mainly show an increasing trend over the last 60 years. The annual streamflow of natural river (except Yellow River) increases significantly in three-rivers headwater region, and the rivers in the northeast and northwest also show a significant increase trend, but there is no significant change in the natural river streamflow in the south of QTP. In addition, the annual streamflow of natural rivers had significant periodicities in the bands of 2–4 years, 4–7 years and 7–11 years. The significant coherence of WTC spectra between annual precipitation and streamflow indicate that precipitation is the main reason for annual streamflow variation in the QTP. The variation of extreme climate events significantly regulates the regional annual streamflow. All EPIs except consecutive dry days show an in-phase correlation with annual streamflow of most headwater. Annual streamflow of Naijin River is positively and negatively correlated with extreme warm and extreme cold, respectively, and has a clearer lead-lag relationship than that with EPIs. Annual streamflow of headwater has higher correlations with EI Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) than with sunspot number (SSN). Solar activity may first affect ENSO and PDO, and then this effect is transferred sequentially to the hydrological cycle of the QTP by SSN-modulated PDO and PDO-SSN co-modulated ENSO. It is of great significance to investigate the response of streamflow variation to annual precipitation, extreme climate events and large-scale climate phenomena for water resources management, flood control, ecosystem restoration, and the well-being of surrounding residents and sustainable development in the QTP.

Exploring a spatiotemporal hetero graph-based long short-term memory model for multi-step-ahead flood forecasting

Operational flood prevention platforms and systems rely upon the advance notice provided by flood forecasts to formulate efficient measures for flood mitigation. Capturing complex spatial heterogeneity and correlation of hydro-meteorological variables is fundamentally challenging for artificial neural networks. This challenge becomes even more significant when the complexity involved introduces systematic biases and time-lag phenomena in flood forecasts. For the first time, this study proposed a Spatiotemporal Hetero Graph-based Long Short-term Memory (SHG-LSTM) model for multi-step-ahead flood forecasting. The case study focused on the Jianxi basin in China. 25,341 hydro-meteorological data, with a temporal resolution of three hours, collected during flood events were divided into training and test datasets for model construction purpose. The model was fed with 3-h streamflow and precipitation data from 23 gauge stations, covering a time span of the preceding 21 h, for generating flood forecasts at 1 up to 7 horizons. To make a comparative analysis, both LSTM and the Spatiotemporal Graph Convolutional Network (S-GCN) were constructed. This study conducted multiple rounds of model training with varying initial parameters to assess the accuracy, stability, and reliability of the LSTM, S-GCN, and SHG-LSTM models. The results demonstrated that the SHG-LSTM model outperformed LSTM and S-GCN models, with an average reduction in the volume error (VE) of 6.5% and 11.1%, respectively, a decrease in the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 6.7% and 8.1%, respectively, and a reduction in the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 5.0% and 12.9%, respectively. Furthermore, the SHG-LSTM model not only could efficiently overcome the under-prediction bottleneck, but also could largely mitigate the time-lag phenomenon in flood forecasts, even during the testing stages. These findings indicate that the proposed SHG-LSTM model can provide a general framework for modelling the spatial heterogeneity and correlation of hydro-meteorological variables and achieve accurate and reliable flood forecasts, thereby enhancing the model’s applicability in flood prevention platforms and systems.