Hydrological Sensitivity Research Articles

Weak hydrological sensitivity to temperature change over land, independent of climate forcing

We present the global and regional hydrological sensitivity (HS) to surface temperature changes, for perturbations to CO2, CH4, sulfate and black carbon concentrations, and solar irradiance. Based on results from ten climate models, we show how modeled global mean precipitation increases by 2–3% per kelvin of global mean surface warming, independent of driver, when the effects of rapid adjustments are removed. Previously reported differences in response between drivers are therefore mainly ascribable to rapid atmospheric adjustment processes. All models show a sharp contrast in behavior over land and over ocean, with a strong surface temperature-driven (slow) ocean HS of 3–5%/K, while the slow land HS is only 0–2%/K. Separating the response into convective and large-scale cloud processes, we find larger inter-model differences, in particular over land regions. Large-scale precipitation changes are most relevant at high latitudes, while the equatorial HS is dominated by convective precipitation changes. Black carbon stands out as the driver with the largest inter-model slow HS variability, and also the strongest contrast between a weak land and strong sea response. We identify a particular need for model investigations and observational constraints on convective precipitation in the Arctic, and large-scale precipitation around the Equator.

Alpine foreland running drier? Sensitivity of a drought vulnerable catchment to changes in climate, land use, and water management

Southeastern Austria as part of the southeastern Alpine forelands experiences an increase of temperature and a tendency of decreasing precipitation. Especially in summer, the temperature strongly increased by about 0.7 °C per decade since the 1970s. Drought vulnerability under climate change is therefore a key question in this region. Here, we address this question by exploring the hydrological sensitivity of the Raab catchment in Austria (area 987 km2), a typical catchment in these Alpine forelands. Using the process-oriented Water Flow and Balance Simulation Model (WaSiM) over 1982–2011, we focus on low-flow conditions during extended summer (May–September) and analyze the catchment’s runoff sensitivity to climate change, but also land use and water management change. We find that climate change drivers dominate the summertime runoff response (decrease > 40/> 70%), based on moderate and strong climate change cases in the region (temperature + 2/+ 4 K, precipitation − 15/− 30%). Land use changes towards more dry and sealed areas enhance surface runoff and thus may lead to somewhat increased flood peaks. In contrast, water withdrawal for irrigation reduces runoff during low-flow periods in the summer when the irrigation demand is high. Although the impact of these non-climatic drivers on runoff generally is lower than that of the climate change considered, their interactive effects may reinforce the catchment’s tendency of running drier during summer. While more detailed scenario-based assessments are needed to further assess drought risks, this initial study provides clear evidence for the vulnerability of Alpine foreland catchments to increasing summer dryness under climate change.

Interactions between Hydrological Sensitivity, Radiative Cooling, Stability, and Low-Level Cloud Amount Feedback

Low-level cloud feedbacks vary in magnitude but are positive in most climate models, due to reductions in low-level cloud fraction. This study explores the impact of surface evaporation on low-level cloud fraction feedback by performing climate change experiments with the aquaplanet configuration of the HadGEM2-A climate model, forcing surface evaporation to increase at different rates in two ways. Forcing the evaporation diagnosed in the surface scheme to increase at 7% K−1with warming (more than doubling the hydrological sensitivity) results in an increase in global mean low-level cloud fraction and a negative global cloud feedback, reversing the signs of these responses compared to the standard experiments. The estimated inversion strength (EIS) increases more rapidly in these surface evaporation forced experiments, which is attributed to additional latent heat release and enhanced warming of the free troposphere. Stimulating a 7% K−1increase in surface evaporation via enhanced atmospheric radiative cooling, however, results in a weaker EIS increase compared to the standard experiments and a slightly stronger low-level cloud reduction. The low-level cloud fraction response is predicted better by EIS than surface evaporation across all experiments. This suggests that surface-forced increases in evaporation increase low-level cloud fraction mainly by increasing EIS. Additionally, the results herein show that increases in surface evaporation can have a very substantial impact on the rate of increase in radiative cooling with warming, by modifying the temperature and humidity structure of the atmosphere. This has implications for understanding the factors controlling hydrological sensitivity.

Analysis of the Contribution Rate of Climate Change and Anthropogenic Activity to Runoff Variation in Nenjiang Basin, China

The Pettitt abrupt change test method based on ArcGIS was used to undertake change-point analysis on climatic (precipitation and potential evapotranspiration; 39 meteorological stations) and runoff data (27 hydrological stations) from 1954–2015 in the Nenjiang basin. The hydrological sensitivity analysis method was also used to calculate the influential component of climate change upstream, mid-stream, and downstream of the Nenjiang basin, as well as the effect of anthropogenic activities on runoff. Our results show that the upstream area has the highest contribution rate of climate change, followed by the mid-stream area; the downstream area has the lowest contribution rate. Studying climate change contribution rates in various sites in the Nenjiang basin, in addition to anthropogenic activities affecting runoff, can provide the foundation for the protection and utilization of basin water resources, as well as the conservation and restoration of wetlands.

Observed and Projected Precipitation Changes over the Nine US Climate Regions

We analyze the past (1900–2015) temperature and precipitation changes in nine separate US climate regions. We find that the temperature increased in a statistically significant (95% confidence level equivalent to alpha level of 0.05) manner in all of these regions. However, the variability in the observed precipitation was much more complex. In the eastern US (east of Rocky Mountains), the precipitation increased in all five climate regions and the increase was statistically significant in three of them. In contract, in the western US, the precipitation increased in two regions and decreased in two with no statistical significance in any region. The CMIP5 climate models (an ensemble mean) were not able to capture properly either the large precipitation differences between the eastern and the western US, or the changes of precipitation between 1900 and 2015 in eastern US. The statistical regression model explains the differences between the eastern and western US precipitation as results of different significant predictors. The anthropogenic greenhouse gases and aerosol (GHGA) are the major forcing of the precipitation in the eastern part of US, while the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) has the major influence on precipitation in the western part of the US. Our analysis suggests that the precipitation over the eastern US increased at an approximate rate of 6.7%/K, in agreement with the Clausius-Clapeyron equation, while the precipitation of the western US was approximately constant, independent of the temperature. Future precipitation over the western part of the US will depend on the behavior of the PDO, and how it (PDO) may be affected by future warming. Low hydrological sensitivity (percent increase of precipitation per one K of warming) projected by the CMIP5 models for the eastern US suggests either an underestimate of future precipitation or an overestimate of future warming.

Differences in the Hydrological Cycle and Sensitivity Between Multiscale Modeling Frameworks with and without a Higher-order Turbulence Closure.

Current conventional global climate models (GCMs) produce a weak increase in global mean precipitation with anthropogenic warming in comparison with the lower-tropospheric moisture increases. The motive of this study is to understand the differences in the hydrological sensitivity between two multiscale modeling frameworks (MMFs) that arise from the different treatments of turbulence and low clouds in order to aid to the understanding of the model spread among conventional GCMs. We compare the hydrological sensitivity and its energetic constraint from MMFs with (SPCAM-IPHOC) or without (SPCAM) an advanced higher-order turbulence closure. SPCAM-IPHOC simulates higher global hydrological sensitivity for the slow response but lower sensitivity for the fast response than SPCAM. Their differences are comparable to the spreads of conventional GCMs. The higher sensitivity in SPCAM-IPHOC is associated with the higher ratio of the changes in latent heating to those in net atmospheric radiative cooling, which is further related to a stronger decrease in the Bowen ratio with warming than in SPCAM. The higher sensitivity of cloud radiative cooling resulting from the lack of low clouds in SPCAM is another major factor in contributing to the lower precipitation sensitivity. The two MMFs differ greatly in the hydrological sensitivity over the tropical lands, where the simulated sensitivity of surface sensible heat fluxes to surface warming and CO2 increase in SPCAM-IPHOC is weaker than in SPCAM. The difference in divergences of dry static energy flux simulated by the two MMFs also contributes to the difference in land precipitation sensitivity between the two models.

PDRMIP: A Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project, Protocol and preliminary results.

As the global temperature increases with changing climate, precipitation rates and patterns are affected through a wide range of physical mechanisms. The globally averaged intensity of extreme precipitation also changes more rapidly than the globally averaged precipitation rate. While some aspects of the regional variation in precipitation predicted by climate models appear robust, there is still a large degree of inter-model differences unaccounted for. Individual drivers of climate change initially alter the energy budget of the atmosphere leading to distinct rapid adjustments involving changes in precipitation. Differences in how these rapid adjustment processes manifest themselves within models are likely to explain a large fraction of the present model spread and needs better quantifications to improve precipitation predictions. Here, we introduce the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP), where a set of idealized experiments designed to understand the role of different climate forcing mechanisms were performed by a large set of climate models. PDRMIP focuses on understanding how precipitation changes relating to rapid adjustments and slower responses to climate forcings are represented across models. Initial results show that rapid adjustments account for large regional differences in hydrological sensitivity across multiple drivers. The PDRMIP results are expected to dramatically improve our understanding of the causes of the present diversity in future climate projections.

Sensitivities of the hydrologic cycle to model physics, grid resolution, and ocean type in the aquaplanet Community Atmosphere Model

AbstractPrecipitation distributions and extremes play a fundamental role in shaping Earth's climate and yet are poorly represented in many global climate models. Here, a suite of idealized Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) aquaplanet simulations is examined to assess the aquaplanet's ability to reproduce hydroclimate statistics of real‐Earth configurations and to investigate sensitivities of precipitation distributions and extremes to model physics, horizontal grid resolution, and ocean type. Little difference in precipitation statistics is found between aquaplanets using time‐constant sea‐surface temperatures and those implementing a slab ocean model with a 50 m mixed‐layer depth. In contrast, CAM version 5.3 (CAM5.3) produces more time mean, zonally averaged precipitation than CAM version 4 (CAM4), while CAM4 generates significantly larger precipitation variance and frequencies of extremely intense precipitation events. The largest model configuration‐based precipitation sensitivities relate to choice of horizontal grid resolution in the selected range 1–2°. Refining grid resolution has significant physics‐dependent effects on tropical precipitation: for CAM4, time mean zonal mean precipitation increases along the Equator and the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) narrows, while for CAM5.3 precipitation decreases along the Equator and the twin branches of the ITCZ shift poleward. Increased grid resolution also reduces light precipitation frequencies and enhances extreme precipitation for both CAM4 and CAM5.3 resulting in better alignment with observational estimates. A discussion of the potential implications these hydrologic cycle sensitivities have on the interpretation of precipitation statistics in future climate projections is also presented.

Inferring hydraulic properties of alpine aquifers from the propagation of diurnal snowmelt signals

AbstractAlpine watersheds source major rivers throughout the world and supply essential water for irrigation, human consumption, and hydroelectricity. Coarse depositional units in alpine watersheds can store and transmit significant volumes of groundwater and thus augment stream discharge during the dry season. These environments are typically data scarce, which has limited the application of physically based models to investigate hydrologic sensitivity to environmental change. This study focuses on a coarse alpine talus unit within the Lake O'Hara watershed in the Canadian Rockies. We investigate processes controlling the hydrologic functioning of the talus unit using field observations and a numerical groundwater flow model driven with a distributed snowmelt model. The model hydraulic parameters are adjusted to investigate how these properties influence the propagation of snowmelt‐induced diurnal signals. The model results expectedly demonstrate that diurnal signals at the talus outlet are progressively damped and lagged with lower hydraulic conductivity and higher specific yield. The simulations further indicate that the lag can be primarily controlled by a higher hydraulic conductivity upper layer, whereas the damping can be strongly influenced by a lower hydraulic conductivity layer along the base of the talus. The simulations specifically suggest that the talus slope can be represented as a two layer system with a high conductivity zone (0.02 m s−1) overlying a 10 cm thick lower conductivity zone (0.002 m s−1). This study demonstrates that diurnal signals can be used to elucidate the hydrologic functioning and hydraulic properties of shallow aquifers and thus aid in the parameterization of hydrological models.

Forest cover change and water yield in large forested watersheds: A global synthetic assessment

AbstractThe effects of forest cover change on water yield have long been studied across the globe. Several reviews have summarized the impacts of forest change and water yield from the small and paired watershed experiments, but no any synthetic assessment has been conducted on the basis of studies of large watersheds (>1,000 km2). We conducted a synthetic analysis on the basis of the studies from 162 large studied watersheds across the globe to explore how forest cover change affects annual water yield. Our first‐ever assessment confirms that deforestation increases annual water yield and reforestation decreases it, which is consistent with results from paired watershed experiments. More importantly, we found that forest cover and climate variability play a coequal role in annual water yield variations. The effects of forest cover change and climate variability on annual water yield variations can be additive or offsetting. Thus, their interactions can critically determine the magnitudes and directions of water yield changes. We also found that the hydrological sensitivities to forest cover change in smaller and dryer watersheds are higher than those in larger and wetter ones. The implications of these findings for sustainable water and watershed management are discussed in the context of future land cover and climate changes.

Assessing hydrogeologic controls on dynamic groundwater storage using long‐term instrumental records of water table levels

AbstractThis study analyzes a long‐term regional compilation of water table response to climate variability based on 124 long‐term groundwater wells distributed across New England, USA, screened in a variety of geologic materials. The New England region of the USA is located in a humid‐temperature climate underlain by low‐storage‐fractured metamorphic and crystalline bedrock dissected by north–south trending valleys filled with glacial and post‐glacial valley fill sediments. Uplands are covered by thin glacial till that comprises more than 60% of the total area. Annual and multi‐annual responses of the water table to climate variability are assessed to understand how local hydraulic properties and hydrogeologic setting (located in recharge/discharge region) of the aquifer influence the hydrologic sensitivity of the aquifer system to climate variability. This study documents that upland aquifer systems dominated by thin deposits of surface till comprise ~70% of the active and dynamic storage of the region. Total aquifer storage changes of +5 to −7 km3 occur over the region during the study interval. The storage response is dominated by thin and low permeability surficial till aquifer that fills and drains on a multi‐annual basis and serves as the main mechanism to deliver water to valley fill aquifers and underlying bedrock aquifers. Whereas the till aquifer system is traditionally neglected as an important storage reservoir, this study highlights the importance of a process‐based understanding of how different landscape hydrogeologic units contribute to the overall hydrologic response of a region.

Quantification of Hydrological Responses Due to Climate Change and Human Activities over Various Time Scales in South Korea

Hydrological responses are being impacted by both climate change and human activities. In particular, climate change and regional human activities have accelerated significantly during the last three decades in South Korea. The variation in runoff due to the two types of factors should be quantitatively investigated to aid effective water resources’ planning and management. In water resources’ planning, analysis using various time scales is useful where rainfall is unevenly distributed. However, few studies analyzed the impacts of these two factors over different time scales. In this study, hydrologic model-based approach and hydrologic sensitivity were used to separate the relative impacts of these two factors at monthly, seasonal and annual time scales in the Soyang Dam upper basin and the Seom River basin in South Korea. After trend analysis using the Mann–Kendall nonparametric test to identify the causes of gradual change, three techniques, such as the double mass curve method, Pettitt’s test and the BCP (Bayesian change point) analysis, were used to detect change points caused by abrupt changes in the collected observed runoff. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) models calibrated from the natural periods were used to calculate the impacts of human activities. Additionally, six Budyko-based methods were used to verify the results obtained from the hydrological-based approach. The results show that impacts of climate change have been stronger than those of human activities in the Soyang Dam upper basin, while the impacts of human activities have been stronger than those of climate change in the Seom River basin. Additionally, the quantitative characteristics of relative impacts due to these two factors were identified at the monthly, seasonal and annual time scales. Finally, we suggest that the procedure used in this study can be used as a reference for regional water resources’ planning and management.

Rain or snow: hydrologic processes, observations, prediction, and research needs

Abstract. The phase of precipitation when it reaches the ground is a first-order driver of hydrologic processes in a watershed. The presence of snow, rain, or mixed-phase precipitation affects the initial and boundary conditions that drive hydrological models. Despite their foundational importance to terrestrial hydrology, typical phase partitioning methods (PPMs) specify the phase based on near-surface air temperature only. Our review conveys the diversity of tools available for PPMs in hydrological modeling and the advancements needed to improve predictions in complex terrain with large spatiotemporal variations in precipitation phase. Initially, we review the processes and physics that control precipitation phase as relevant to hydrologists, focusing on the importance of processes occurring aloft. There is a wide range of options for field observations of precipitation phase, but there is a lack of a robust observation networks in complex terrain. New remote sensing observations have the potential to increase PPM fidelity, but generally require assumptions typical of other PPMs and field validation before they are operational. We review common PPMs and find that accuracy is generally increased at finer measurement intervals and by including humidity information. One important tool for PPM development is atmospheric modeling, which includes microphysical schemes that have not been effectively linked to hydrological models or validated against near-surface precipitation-phase observations. The review concludes by describing key research gaps and recommendations to improve PPMs, including better incorporation of atmospheric information, improved validation datasets, and regional-scale gridded data products. Two key points emerge from this synthesis for the hydrologic community: (1) current PPMs are too simple to capture important processes and are not well validated for most locations, (2) lack of sophisticated PPMs increases the uncertainty in estimation of hydrological sensitivity to changes in precipitation phase at local to regional scales. The advancement of PPMs is a critical research frontier in hydrology that requires scientific cooperation between hydrological and atmospheric modelers and field scientists.

Quantitative separation of impacting factors to runoff variation using hydrological model and hydrological sensitivity analysis

우리나라는 지난 30년 동안 기후변화 및 도시화 등으로 인한 변화가 급격하게 진행된 바 있으므로, 두 가지 요소들로 인한 유량의 변동량을 정량화하여 분석할 필요가 있다. 그러나 유량의 변동량을 특정 원인별로 구분하여 분석하고자 하는 국내 연구는 매우 미미한 형편이며, 다양한 시간단위를 이용한 원인별 유량 변동량의 산정에 관한 연구는 더욱 찾아보기 힘들다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 기후변화 및 인간활동으로 인한 유량 변동량을 정량적으로 분리하기 위하여 수문모형을 이용한 방법과 수문학적 민감도(hydrological sensitivity) 분석 방법을 소양강 상류유역 및 섬강 유역에 대해 적용하고 유량 변동량의 결과를 월별, 분기별 및 연별로 구분하여 제시하였다. 인간활동으로 인해 발생되는 급진적인 변동점을 탐색하기 위해 이중누가곡선, Pettitt 검정 및 베이지안 변동점(Bayesian change point) 분석을 시행하였으며, 탐색된 변동점을 활용하여 변동점 이전 구간에 대해 보정 및 검증된 SWAT모형과 6가지의 Budyko 곡선 함수들로부터 각각 유량 변동량을 산정하여 수문모형에 의한 유량 변동량을 검증하였다.

Assessment of models predicting anthropogenic interventions and climate variability on surface runoff of the Lower Zab River

Multi-regression, hydrologic sensitivity and hydrologic model simulations were applied to quantify the climate change and anthropogenic intervention impacts on the Lower Zab River basin (LZRB). The Pettitt, precipitation-runoff double cumulative curve (PR-DCC) and Mann–Kendall methods were used for the change points and significant trend analyses in the annual streamflow. The long-term runoff series from 1979 to 2013 was first divided into two main periods: a baseline (1979–1997) and an anthropogenic intervention period (1998–2013). The findings show that the mean annual streamflow changes were consistent using the three methods. In addition, climate variability was the main driver, which led to streamflow reduction with contributions of 66–97% during 2003–2013, whereas anthropogenic interventions caused reductions of 4–34%. Moreover, to enhance the multi-model combination concept and explore the simple average method (SAM), Hydrologiska Byrans Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV), Génie Rural a Daily 4 parameters (GR4J) and Medbasin models have been successfully applied.

Evaluation of hydropeaking impacts on the food web in alpine streams based on modelling of fish- and macroinvertebrate habitats

Hydropeaking as a result of peak-load electricity production has been identified as one of the most significant pressures in alpine streams. Scouring of macroinvertebrates leads to downstream transport of aquatic organisms (catastrophic drift). Additionally, invertebrates are affected by periodic drying of wetted area during the dewatering of gravel bars and exposed areas along the banks. Even though fish are physiologically better adapted to switch to suitable habitats, artificial flow fluctuations may be followed by lethal stranding and quick alteration in habitat quantity and quality. Nevertheless, the interactions between pressures on fish and macroinvertebrates in terms of hydropeaking have not been investigated so far. The aim of this paper is to evaluate effects of flow fluctuations on potential epibenthic feeding grounds. Therefore, we evaluated changes in habitat distribution resulting from rapid flow fluctuations in river reaches with different river morphological characteristics, for five different macroinvertebrate taxa. Additionally, microhabitats for brown trout at two different life stages were calculated using representative peaking events (seasonal analysis) based on mid- to long term times series. Moreover, GIS-analysis allowed the evaluation of hydropeaking impacts (interaction) on both, macroinvertebrates and fish. In this study, it could be documented that feeding from the benthos for juvenile and subadult brown trout is inhibited during peak flow and is therefore reduced to times of base flow. Moreover, potential benthic feeding areas occurring at base flow have been found to increase with the level of morphological heterogeneity within analyzed river reaches. Likewise, hydrological sensitivity testing in terms of reducing ∆Q at different levels was performed and revealed that possible positive effects required heterogeneous river morphology as a precondition. However, this approach might be applied for estimating the impacts of hydrological mitigation measures in hydropeaked rivers concerning physical condition and/or growth rate of salmonids considering the river morphology of the investigated stream.

Contributions of Climate Variability and Human Activities to Runoff Changes in the Upper Catchment of the Red River Basin, China

Quantifying the effects of climate variability and human activities on runoff changes will contribute to regional water resource planning and management. This study aims to separate the effects of climate variability and human activities on runoff changes in the upper catchment of the Red River Basin in China. The Mann–Kendall test and Pettitt’s test methods were applied to identify the trends and change points of the hydro-meteorological variables. The hydrological sensitivity, climate elasticity and hydrological simulation methods were adopted to estimate the contributions of climate variability and human activities to runoff changes. Results showed that annual runoff significantly decreased by 1.57 mm/year during the period of 1961–2012. A change point in annual runoff coefficient occurred in 2002. Accordingly, the annual runoff series were divided into the baseline period (1961–2002) and the impacted period (2003–2012). Mean annual runoff of the impacted period decreased by 29.13% compared with the baseline period. Similar estimates of the contributions of climate variability and human activities were obtained by the three different methods. Climate variability was estimated to be responsible for 69%–71% of the reduction in annual runoff, and human activities accounted for 29%–31%. Climate variability was the main driving factor for runoff decrease in the catchment.

An Integrated Approach for Targeting Critical Source Areas to Control Nonpoint Source Pollution in Watersheds

This study presents an integrated approach for targeting critical source areas (CSAs) to control nonpoint source pollution in watersheds. CSAs are the intersections between hydrologically sensitive areas (HSAs) and high pollution producing areas of watersheds. HSAs are the areas with high hydrological sensitivity and potential for generating runoff. They were based on a soil topographic index in consistence of a saturation excess runoff process. High pollution producing areas are the areas that have a high potential for generating pollutants. Such areas were based on simulated pollution loads to streams by the Soil and Water Assessment Tool. The integrated approach is applied to the Neshanic River watershed, a suburban watershed with mixed land uses in New Jersey in the U.S. Results show that several land uses result in water pollution: agricultural land causes sediment, nitrogen and phosphorus pollution; wetlands cause sediment and phosphorus pollution; and urban lands cause nitrogen and phosphorus pollution. The primary CSAs are agricultural lands for all three pollutants, urban lands for nitrogen and phosphorus, and wetlands for sediment and phosphorus. Some pollution producing areas were not classified into CSAs because they are not located in HSAs and the pollutants generated in those areas are less likely to be transported by runoff into streams. The integrated approach identifies CSAs at a very fine scale, which is useful for targeting the implementation of best management practices for water quality improvement, and can be applied broadly in different watersheds to improve the economic efficiency of controlling nonpoint source pollution.

Radiative convective equilibrium as a framework for studying the interaction between convection and its large‐scale environment

AbstractAn uncertain representation of convective clouds has emerged as one of the key barriers to our understanding of climate sensitivity. The large gap in resolved spatial scales between General Circulation Models (GCMs) and high resolution models has made a systematic study of convective clouds across model configurations difficult. It is shown here that the simulated atmosphere of a GCM in Radiative Convective Equilibrium (RCE) is sufficiently similar across a range of domain sizes to justify the use of RCE to study both a GCM and a high resolution model on the same domain with the goal of improved constraints on the parameterized clouds. Simulations of RCE with parameterized convection have been analyzed on domains with areas spanning more than two orders of magnitude ( ), all having the same grid spacing of . The simulated climates on different domains are qualitatively similar in their degree of convective organization, the precipitation rates, and the vertical structure of the clouds and water vapor, with the similarity increasing as the domain size increases. Sea surface temperature perturbation experiments are used to estimate the climate feedback parameter for the differently configured experiments, and the cloud radiative effect is computed to examine the role which clouds play in the response. Despite the similar climate states between the domains the feedback parameter varies by more than a factor of two; the hydrological sensitivity parameter is better behaved, varying by a factor of 1.4. The sensitivity of the climate feedback parameter to domain size is related foremost to a nonsystematic response of low‐level clouds as well as an increasingly negative longwave feedback on larger domains.

Inferring Aerosol Cooling from Hydrological Sensitivity

Abstract Hydrological sensitivity is the change in global-mean precipitation per degree of global-mean temperature change. This paper shows that the hydrological sensitivity of the response to anthropogenic aerosol forcing is distinct from that of the combined response to all other forcings and that this difference is sufficient to infer the associated cooling in global-mean temperature. This result is demonstrated using temperature and precipitation data generated by climate models and is robust across different climate models. Remarkably, greenhouse gas warming and aerosol cooling can be estimated in a model without using any spatial or temporal gradient information in the response, provided temperature data are augmented by precipitation data. Over the late twentieth century, the hydrological sensitivities of climate models differ significantly from that of observations. Whether this discrepancy can be attributed to observational error, which is substantial as different estimates of global-mean precipitation are not even significantly correlated with each other, or to model error is unclear. The results highlight the urgency to construct accurate estimates of global precipitation from past observations and for reducing model uncertainty in hydrological sensitivity. This paper also clarifies that previous estimates of hydrological sensitivity are limited in that standard regression methods neglect temperature–precipitation relations that occur through internal variability. An alternative method for estimating hydrological sensitivity that overcomes this limitation is presented.