Abstract
The Pettitt abrupt change test method based on ArcGIS was used to undertake change-point analysis on climatic (precipitation and potential evapotranspiration; 39 meteorological stations) and runoff data (27 hydrological stations) from 1954–2015 in the Nenjiang basin. The hydrological sensitivity analysis method was also used to calculate the influential component of climate change upstream, mid-stream, and downstream of the Nenjiang basin, as well as the effect of anthropogenic activities on runoff. Our results show that the upstream area has the highest contribution rate of climate change, followed by the mid-stream area; the downstream area has the lowest contribution rate. Studying climate change contribution rates in various sites in the Nenjiang basin, in addition to anthropogenic activities affecting runoff, can provide the foundation for the protection and utilization of basin water resources, as well as the conservation and restoration of wetlands.
Highlights
In relation to global warming, the effect climate change has on hydrological processes and water resources of basins has become an important research area [1,2]
From the perspective of different areas in the Nenjiang watershed, the upstream area was located in a mountainous area, which had the least anthropogenic activity (18%); the downstream area is located in agricultural areas of the Songnen Plain and was most affected by anthropogenic activities (28.9%)
From the perspective of different periods, it was seen that after the year 2000, the contribution rate of climate change to runoff variation was the greatest. This difference occurred for two reasons: one is that the upstream area is in the mountain area, with fewer human activities, and the downstream area is the Songnen Plain, with more agricultural activities; the other reason is that since the 1990s, with rapid economic development, fast population growth, increase in the planting area for agricultural products, and the construction of water conservancy project facilities, human activities have had an increasing impact on runoff changes
Summary
In relation to global warming, the effect climate change has on hydrological processes and water resources of basins has become an important research area [1,2]. With the continued effects of global warming, investigating the evolution pattern of water resources impacted by natural changes and human activities has become a new and important research area in water science [3]. The Nenjiang river basin is located in the midwestern part of the northeastern region of China, an area that has developed water systems and an abundance of developed wetlands, such as lacustrine and swamps. This area is important as it regulates natural water reserves and the regional water balance, as well as providing ecological protection to prevent desertification in the western Songnen Plain expanding towards the middle-eastern areas [5,6,7]. The flood-regulating function of wetlands have drastically declined, leading to increased potential threats to water security and to people’s livelihood and property security
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