Hydroclimatic Regions Research Articles

Streamflow prediction model for agriculture dominated tropical watershed using machine learning and hierarchical predictor selection algorithms

Study regionRana watershed, located in the mid-Mahanadi River basin in the state of Odisha, India. Study focusThis study attempted to develop a generalizable machine learning (ML)-based streamflow prediction model implementing prediction selection algorithms to the physiographic characteristics, and hydro-meteorological data collected for Rana Watershed. New hydrological insightsThe pertinent predictors identified were land use/ land cover (LULC), one and two-day lagged rainfall, one-day lagged PET, and one-day lagged streamflow and its categorized flow regime. The random forest algorithm, which outperformed the other five algorithms evaluated, was trained using identified predictors to develop a streamflow prediction model called “stRFlow”. The mean absolute error, root mean squared error, coefficient of determination, and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency during training were 0.753 m3/s, 3.584 m3/s, 0.973, and 0.972 and testing were 2.829 m3/s, 10.503 m3/s, 0.855, and 0.851, respectively. The Kling-Gupta efficiency was found to be 0.96 and 0.92 during training and testing, respectively. There was an enhancement to model proficiency with the addition of LULC to temporal predictors. Moreover, the partial auto-correlation factor for the streamflow and examining the categorization of specific lagged flow regimes enhanced the predictive capacities of “stRFlow”. Results depict the potential of stRFlow and the framework in streamflow modeling in similar hydroclimatic regions with applicability for practical and reliable streamflow predictions globally.

Analysis of the impacts of climate change, physiographic factors and land use/cover on the spatiotemporal variability of seasonal daily mean flows in southern Quebec (Canada)

The objective of this study is to compare the spatiotemporal variability of seasonal daily mean flows measured in 17 watersheds, grouped into three homogeneous hydroclimatic regions, during the period 1930–2023 in southern Quebec. With regard to spatial variability, unlike extreme daily flows, seasonal daily mean flows are very poorly correlated with physiographic factors and land use and land cover. In fall, they are not correlated with any physiographic or climatic factor. In winter, they are positively correlated with the rainfall and winter daily mean maximum temperatures. In spring, they are strongly correlated positively with the snowfall but negatively with the spring daily mean maximum temperatures. However, in summer, they are better correlated with forest area and, to a lesser extent, with the rainfall. As for their temporal variability, the application of six different statistical tests revealed a general increase in daily mean flows in winter due to early snowmelt and increased rainfall in fall. In summer, flows decreased significantly in the snowiest hydroclimatic region on the south shore due to the decrease in the snowfall. In spring, no significant change in flows was globally observed in the three hydroclimatic regions despite the decrease in the snowfall due to the increase in the rainfall. In fall, flows increased significantly south of 47°N on both shores due to the increase in the rainfall. This study demonstrates that, unlike extreme flows, the temporal variability of seasonal daily average flows is exclusively influenced by climatic variables in southern Quebec. Due to this influence, seasonal daily mean flows thus appear to be the best indicator for monitoring the impacts of changes in precipitation regimes and seasonal temperatures on river flows in southern Quebec.

Projected Changes in Mean and Extreme Precipitation over Northern Mexico

Abstract Northern Mexico is home to more than 32 million people and is of significant agricultural and economic importance for the country. The region includes three distinct hydroclimatic regions, all of which regularly experience severe dryness and flooding and are highly susceptible to future changes in precipitation. To date, little work has been done to characterize future trends in either mean or extreme precipitation over northern Mexico. To fill this gap, we investigate projected precipitation trends over the region in the NA-CORDEX ensemble of dynamically downscaled simulations. We first verify that these simulations accurately reproduce observed precipitation over northern Mexico, as derived from the Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation (MSWEP) product, demonstrating that the NA-CORDEX ensemble is appropriate for studying precipitation trends over the region. By the end of the century, simulations forced with a high-emissions scenario project that both mean and extreme precipitation will decrease to the west and increase to the east of the Sierra Madre highlands, decreasing the zonal gradient in precipitation. We also find that the North American monsoon, which is responsible for a substantial fraction of the precipitation over the region, is likely to start later and last approximately three weeks longer. The frequency of extreme precipitation events is expected to double throughout the region, exacerbating the flood risk for vulnerable communities in northern Mexico. Collectively, these results suggest that the extreme precipitation-related dangers that the region faces, such as flooding, will increase significantly by the end of the century, with implications for the agricultural sector, economy, and infrastructure. Significance Statement Northern Mexico regularly experiences severe flooding and its important agricultural sector can be heavily impacted by variations in precipitation. Using high-resolution climate model simulations that have been tested against observations, we find that these hydroclimate extremes are likely to be exacerbated in a warming climate; the dry (wet) season is projected to receive significantly less (more) precipitation (approximately ±10% by the end of the century). Simulations suggest that some of the changes in precipitation over the region can be related to the North American monsoon, with the monsoon starting later in the year and lasting several weeks longer. Our results also suggest that the frequency of extreme precipitation will increase, although this increase is smaller than that projected for other regions, with the strongest storms becoming 20% more frequent per degree of warming. These results suggest that this region may experience significant changes to its hydroclimate through the end of the century that will require significant resilience planning.

Drought Propagation and Recovery Behaviors Across 407 Australian Catchments

AbstractA reliable understanding of linkages between meteorological, hydrological and agricultural droughts (MD, HD, and AD respectively) is crucial to building resilience and planning for future climate changes. Despite Australia being prone to severe droughts, lagtimes of propagation (and recovery), from meteorological to hydrological and agricultural droughts across its large hydroclimatic regions, are poorly understood. Therefore, we investigate the characteristics of drought propagation and recovery time lags for droughts of four timescales and a combination of drought onset and cessation criteria in 407 unregulated catchments within six major precipitation zones across the country. We find that the propagation and recovery lags depend on climatic conditions, drought criteria and timescales. The median of catchment average propagation times from MD to HD across Australia varied from 0.8 to 1.7 months for 1‐month timescales, increasing to 2.2–5.0 months for 12‐month timescales. The corresponding recovery lagtimes were 1.3–3.7 and 1.7–7.0 months respectively. Similarly, the median of catchment average propagation times from MD to AD ranged from 0.8 to 1.9 months for 1‐month timescales, increasing to 0.6–5.0 months for 12‐month. The corresponding recovery lagtimes were 0.7–2.8 and 0.3–8.7 months respectively. For droughts of smaller timescales, propagation and recovery lags are linearly correlated with recovery lagtimes consistently greater than propagation times. However, as the timescale increases, these relationships weaken suggesting effects of other catchment attributes (e.g., groundwater contributions) on lag relationships.

The Value of Large‐Scale Climatic Indices for Monthly Forecasting Severity of Widespread Flooding Using Dilated Convolutional Neural Networks

AbstractSpatially co‐occurring floods pose a threat to the resilience and recovery of the communities. Their timely forecasting plays a crucial role for increasing flood preparedness and limiting associated losses. In this study we investigated the potential of a dilated Convolutional Neural Network (dCNN) model conditioned on large‐scale climatic indices and antecedent precipitation to forecast monthly severity of widespread flooding (i.e., spatially co‐occurring floods) in Germany with 1 month lead time. The severity was estimated from 63 years of daily streamflow series as the sum of concurrent exceedances of at‐site 2‐year return periods within a given month across 172 mesoscale catchments (median area 516 km2). The model was trained individually for the whole country and three diverse hydroclimatic regions to provide insights on heterogeneity of model performance and flood drivers. Our results showed a considerable potential for forecasting widespread flood severity using dCNN especially as the length of training series increases. However, event‐based evaluation of model skill indicates large underestimation for rainfall‐generated floods during dry conditions despite overall lower severity of these events compared to the rain‐on‐snow floods. Feature attribution and wavelet coherence analyses both indicated considerable difference in the major flood drivers in three regions. While the flooding in North‐Eastern region is strongly affected by the Baltic Sea, the North‐Western region is affected more by global patterns associated with the El‐Niño activity. In the Southern region in addition to global patterns we detected the effect of the Mediterranean Sea, while antecedent precipitation plays a less important role in this region.

Weighting climate models for hydrological projections: effects on contrasting hydroclimatic regions

Weighting climate models has recently become a more accepted approach. However, it remains a topic of ongoing discussion, especially for analyses needed at regional scales, such as hydrological assessments. Various studies have evaluated the weighting approaches for climate simulations. Yet, few case studies have assessed the impacts of weighting climate models on streamflow projections. Additionally, the methodological and location limitations of previous studies make it difficult to extrapolate their conclusions over regions with contrasting hydroclimatic regimes, highlighting the need for further studies. Thus, this study evaluates the effects of different climate model’s weighting approaches on hydrological projections over hydrologically diverse basins. An ensemble of 24 global climate model (GCM) simulations coupled with a lumped hydrological model is used over 20 North American basins to generate 24 GCM-driven streamflow projections. Six unequal-weighting approaches, comprising temperature-, precipitation-, and streamflow-based criteria, were evaluated using an out-of-sample approach during the 1976–2005 reference period. Moreover, the unequal-weighting approaches were compared against the equal-weighting approach over the 1976–2005, 2041–2070, and 2070–2099 periods. The out-of-sample assessment showed that unequally weighted ensembles can improve the mean hydrograph representation under historical conditions compared to the common equal-weighting approach. In addition, results revealed that unequally weighting climate models not only impacted the magnitude and climate change signal, but also reduced the model response uncertainty spread of hydrological projections, particularly over rain-dominated basins. These results underline the need to further evaluate the adequacy of equally weighting climate models, especially for variables with generally larger uncertainty at regional scale.

A statistical–dynamical approach for probabilistic prediction of sub-seasonal precipitation anomalies over 17 hydroclimatic regions in China

Abstract. In this study, we develop a spatial–temporal projection-based calibration, bridging, and merging (STP-CBaM) method to improve probabilistic sub-seasonal precipitation forecast skill over 17 hydroclimatic regions in China. The calibration model is established by post-processing ECMWF raw forecasts using the Bayesian joint probability (BJP) approach. The bridging models are built using large-scale atmospheric intraseasonal predictors, including zonal wind at 200 hPa (U200) and 850 hPa (U850); an outgoing longwave radiation anomaly (OLRA); and geopotential height at 200 hPa (H200), 500 hPa (H500), and 850 hPa (H850) defined by the STP method. The calibration model and the bridging models are then merged through the Bayesian modelling averaging (BMA) method. Our results indicate that the forecast skill of the calibration model is higher compared to bridging models when the lead time is within 5–10 d. The U200- and OLRA-based bridging models outperform the calibration model in certain months and certain regions. The BMA-merged forecasts take advantage of both calibration models and bridging models. Meanwhile, the BMA-merged forecasts also show high reliability at longer lead times. However, some improvements to reliability are still needed at shorter lead times. These findings demonstrate the great potential to combine dynamical models and statistical models in improving sub-seasonal precipitation forecasts.

A multi-scale algorithm for the NISAR mission high-resolution soil moisture product

This study proposes a multi-scale soil moisture algorithm for the upcoming NASA-ISRO SAR (NISAR) mission to estimate high-resolution (200 [m]) soil moisture (the water content of the soil). The algorithm takes advantage of the high-resolution (∼10 [m]) synthetic aperture radar (SAR) backscatter and coarse resolution modeled/reanalysis soil moisture products (∼ 9 [km]) to create a high-resolution (200 [m]) soil moisture product at a global extent. The end goal of the algorithm is to remove dependencies on any complex modeling, tedious retrieval steps, or multiple ancillary data needs, and subsequently decrease the degrees of freedom to achieve optimal accuracy in soil moisture retrievals. The use of modeled/reanalysis soil moisture products with high temporal resolution gives an added advantage in reducing the temporal mismatch between the two different inputs used in the algorithm. In this study, the proposed algorithm is tested using L-band UAVSAR backscatter (σ°) data and Advanced Land Observing Satellite −2 (ALOS-2) SAR σ° as a substitute for the NISAR L-band SAR observations. The algorithm uses the L-band SAR σ° to disaggregate coarse resolution (∼9 [km]) reanalysis soil moisture of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) to a high-resolution of ∼200 [m] soil moisture product. The potential of the algorithm is demonstrated over three sites in different hydroclimatic regions of the world, such as India, the USA, and Canada. The high-resolution soil moisture estimates were compared with the in-situ soil moisture measurements available for three sites (North India, Southern California, and Carman, Manitoba, Canada). In North India, in-situ measurements are from paddy crops with high vegetation water content, the unbiased root-mean-square-error (ubRMSE) for the high-resolution soil moisture retrievals was found to be 0.036 [m3/m3] with a bias of −0.051 [m3/m3]. For the southern California site, the validation statistics shows low ubRMSE of 0.027 [m3/m3] and a low bias of 0.016 [m3/m3]. At the Carman, Manitoba test site of Canada, where in-situ soil measurements were available for multiple crop types, the comparison shows that the ubRMSE for all the crop types lies below 0.05 [m3/m3] with an average bias of <0.07 [m3/m3]. The result confirms that the proposed algorithm meets the NISAR mission's accuracy goals, i.e., 0.06 [m3/m3] ubRMSE over areas with vegetation water content (VWC) below 5 [kg/m2]. Rigorous validation work will still need to be carried out in the future based on the availability of L-band SAR datasets and after the launch of the NISAR satellite.

Comparison of Spatio-Temporal Variability of Daily Maximum Flows in Cold-Season (Winter and Spring) in Southern Quebec (Canada)

Quebec has experienced a significant decrease in the amount of snow and an increase in temperature during the cold season. The objective of this study is to analyze the impacts of these climate changes on the spatio-temporal variability of the daily maximum flows generated by snowmelt in winter and spring using several statistical tests of correlation (spatial variability) and long-term trend (temporal variability). The study is based on the analysis of flows measured in 17 watersheds (1930–2019) grouped into three hydroclimatic regions. Regarding the spatial variability, the correlation analysis revealed that in winter, the flows are positively correlated with the agricultural area and the daily maximum winter temperature. In the spring, the flows are positively correlated with the drainage density and the snowfall but negatively correlated with the area of wetlands and the daily maximum spring temperature. As for temporal variability (long-term trend), the application of eight statistical tests revealed a generalized increase in flows in winter due to early snowmelt. In the spring, despite the decreased snow cover, no negative trend was observed due to the increase in the spring rainfall, which compensates for the decrease in the snowfall. This temporal evolution of flows in the spring does not correspond to the predictions of climate models. These predict a decrease in the magnitude of spring floods due to the decrease in the snowfall in southern Quebec.

Daily ensemble river discharge reforecasts and real-time forecasts from the operational Global Flood Awareness System

Abstract. Operational global-scale hydrological forecasting systems are used to help manage hydrological extremes such as floods and droughts. The vast amounts of raw data that underpin forecast systems and the ability to generate information on forecast skill have, until now, not been publicly available. As part of the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS; https://www.globalfloods.eu/, last access: 3 December 2022) service evolution, in this paper daily ensemble river discharge reforecasts and real-time forecast datasets are made free and openly available through the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Climate Data Store (CDS). They include real-time forecast data starting on 1 January 2020 updated operationally every day and a 20-year set of reforecasts and associated metadata. This paper describes the model components and configuration used to generate the real-time river discharge forecasts and the reforecasts. An evaluation of ensemble forecast skill using the continuous ranked probability skill score (CRPSS) was also undertaken for river points around the globe. Results show that GloFAS is skilful in over 93 % of catchments in the short (1 to 3 d) and medium range (5 to 15 d) against a persistence benchmark forecast and skilful in over 80 % of catchments out to the extended range (16 to 30 d) against a climatological benchmark forecast. However, the strength of skill varies considerably by location with GloFAS found to have no or negative skill at longer lead times in broad hydroclimatic regions in tropical Africa, western coast of South America, and catchments dominated by snow and ice in high northern latitudes. Forecast skill is summarised as a new headline skill score available as a new layer on the GloFAS forecast Web Map Viewer to aid user interpretation and understanding of forecast quality.

Probabilistic subseasonal precipitation forecasts using preceding atmospheric intraseasonal signals in a Bayesian perspective

Abstract. Accurate and reliable subseasonal precipitation forecasts are of great socioeconomic value for various aspects. The atmospheric intraseasonal oscillation (ISO), which is one of the leading sources of subseasonal predictability, can potentially be used as predictor for subseasonal precipitation forecasts. However, the relationship between atmospheric intraseasonal signals and subseasonal precipitation is of high uncertainty. In this study, we develop a spatiotemporal-projection-based Bayesian hierarchical model (STP-BHM) for subseasonal precipitation forecasts. The coupled covariance patterns between the preceding atmospheric intraseasonal signals and precipitation are extracted, and the corresponding projection coefficients are defined as predictors. A Bayesian hierarchical model (BHM) is then built to address the uncertainty in the relationship between atmospheric intraseasonal signals and precipitation. The STP-BHM model is applied to predict both the pentad mean precipitation amount and pentad mean precipitation anomalies for each hydroclimatic region over China during the boreal summer monsoon season. The model performance is evaluated through a leave-1-year-out cross-validation strategy. Our results suggest that the STP-BHM model can provide skillful and reliable probabilistic forecasts for both the pentad mean precipitation amount and pentad mean precipitation anomalies at leads of 20–25 d over most hydroclimatic regions in China. The results also indicate that the STP-BHM model outperforms the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) model when the lead time is beyond 5 d for pentad mean precipitation amount forecasts. The intraseasonal signals of 850 and 200 hPa zonal wind (U850 and U200) and 850 and 500 hPa geopotential height (H850 and H500) contribute more to the overall forecast skill of the pentad mean precipitation amount predictions. In comparison, the outgoing longwave radiation anomalies (OLRAs) contribute most to the forecast skill of the pentad mean precipitation anomaly predictions. Other sources of subseasonal predictability, such as soil moisture, snow cover, and stratosphere–troposphere interaction, will be included in the future to further improve the subseasonal precipitation forecast skill.

Design flood estimation using extreme Gradient Boosting-based on Bayesian optimization

• Proposed XGB-based ML model for RFFA and flood estimation. • CAMELs data for 671 catchments from the USA were used to test the efficacy of the approach. • Multiple Linear Regression methods and Artificial Neural Networks were used to compare the output of the eXtreme Gradient Boost-based ML model. • The importance of each catchment feature is characterized using Gini Impurity, Permutation, and Dropout Loss Feature Ranking methods. Regional Flood Frequency Analysis (RFFA) is one of the widely used approaches for estimating design floods in the ungauged basins. We developed an eXtreme Gradient Boost (XGB) machine learning model for RFFA and flood estimation. Our approach relies on developing a regression model between flood quantiles and the commonly available catchment descriptors. We used CAMELs data for 671 catchments from the USA to test the approach's efficacy. The results were compared with the traditional Multiple Linear Regression methods and Artificial Neural Networks. Results revealed that the XGB-based approach estimated design flood with the highest accuracy during training and validation with minor mean absolute error, root mean square error values, and percentage bias ranging from −10 to + 10. The importance of each catchment feature is visualized by three different approaches Gini Impurity, Permutation, and Dropout Loss Feature Ranking. We observed that the most dominating variables are rainfall intensity, slope, snow fraction, soil porosity, and temperature. It is observed that the importance of these variables is a function of the hydroclimatic regions and varies with space. In contrast, mean annual areal potential evapotranspiration, mean annual rainfall, fraction forest area, and soil conductivity have low significance in estimating design flood for an ungauged catchment. Indeed, the proposed XGB-based approach has broader applicability and replicability.

Development of a national 7-day ensemble streamflow forecasting service for Australia

Abstract. Reliable streamflow forecasts with associated uncertainty estimates are essential to manage and make better use of Australia's scarce surface water resources. Here we present the development of an operational 7 d ensemble streamflow forecasting service for Australia to meet the growing needs of users, primarily water and river managers, for probabilistic forecasts to support their decision making. We test the modelling methodology for 100 catchments to learn the characteristics of different rainfall forecasts from Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models, the effect of statistical processing on streamflow forecasts, the optimal ensemble size, and parameters of a bootstrapping technique for calculating forecast skill. A conceptual rainfall–runoff model, GR4H (hourly), and lag and route channel routing model that are in-built in the Short-term Water Information Forecasting Tools (SWIFT) hydrologic modelling package are used to simulate streamflow from input rainfall and potential evaporation. The statistical catchment hydrologic pre-processor (CHyPP) is used for calibrating rainfall forecasts, and the error reduction and representation in stages (ERRIS) model is used to reduce hydrological errors and quantify hydrological uncertainty. Calibrating raw forecast rainfall with CHyPP is an efficient method to significantly reduce bias and improve reliability for up to 7 lead days. We demonstrate that ERRIS significantly improves forecast skill up to 7 lead days. Forecast skills are highest in temperate perennially flowing rivers, while it is lowest in intermittently flowing rivers. A sensitivity analysis for optimising the number of streamflow ensemble members for the operational service shows that more than 200 members are needed to represent the forecast uncertainty. We show that the bootstrapping block size is sensitive to the forecast skill calculation. A bootstrapping block size of 1 month is recommended to capture maximum possible uncertainty. We present benchmark criteria for accepting forecast locations for the public service. Based on the criteria, 209 forecast locations out of a possible 283 are selected in different hydro-climatic regions across Australia for the public service. The service, which has been operational since 2019, provides daily updates of graphical and tabular products of ensemble streamflow forecasts along with performance information, for up to 7 lead days.

Climatic and altitudinal controls on rainfall extremes and their temporal changes in data-sparse tropical regions

• We used the Simplified MEV to model extreme rainfall quantiles in tropical regions. • Weibull distribution well approximates the tail of daily rainfall distribution. • Statistical parameters and rainfall quantiles significantly depend on latitude. • Homogeneous patterns in regional temporal trends are related to altitude. • Extreme daily rainfall amounts in the Volta basin increased during 1978–2018. Sub-Saharan Africa’s economy and livelihood are primarily dependent on agriculture, which makes it highly vulnerable to the impacts of extreme weather events and climate change. Modelling and quantifying extreme rainfall and its temporal changes in such environments could thus provide crucial information for design, insurance, management, ecology and climate adaptation. Rain gauge networks in the area are relatively sparse, and often characterized by missing data, which hamper the use of extreme-value methods for estimating extreme precipitation quantiles. In this study, we adopted the Simplified Metastatistical Extreme Value approach for the estimation of extreme return levels based on ordinary events (i.e., all the independent realizations of the variable of interest), which was shown to be more accurate than traditional extreme-value methods in the presence of short data records. We examined data from 66 rain gauges covering diverse hydro-climatic regions across Ghana with the aim of (i) validating the robustness of the statistical approach, (ii) characterising the climatic and altitudinal controls on the occurrence, frequency and intensity of rainfall extremes, and (iii) quantifying recent changes in the characteristics of extremes. We found that a two-parameter Weibull distribution well approximates the tail of the daily rainfall distribution throughout the area. Our statistical approach can quantify extremes with largely reduced uncertainties (7–17% uncertainty in the 100-year return levels computed using 10 years of data versus 11–62% of extreme-value based methods). Extreme precipitation statistics (daily intensity distribution, number of wet days, extreme rainfall quantiles) are found to significantly depend on latitude, so that the four latitudinally layered hydro-climatic regions typically adopted in the area well represent spatial variations. Elevation significantly affects the tail heaviness of the daily intensity distribution and thus extreme rainfall quantiles. Temporal changes during the period 1978–2018 are found to be non-homogeneous in the area as well as within the four hydro-climatic regions, but are homogeneous in three altitude-based regions. We report contrasting trends in extreme return levels in low-elevation (<200 m a.s.l.) and hilly regions, related to contrasting changes in the daily intensity distribution. Statistically significant positive trends in extreme daily rainfall amounts are observed in the inland low-elevation region of the Volta river basin, which call for further investigation of changes in future precipitation extremes in this extremely important hydrological region in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Optimum design of a recharge filter for recharging the dug wells: a field application

Artificial recharging of the abandoned and/or functional dug wells through a recharge filter is an efficient and economical method for mitigating and maintaining depleting water tables. An optimum sizing of the recharge filter is necessary to avoid its over-design or under-design and has a minimum cost. Optimum sizing of the recharge filter for the dug well recharging has received very little attention, especially in India. In this paper, analytical expressions for designing the recharge filter were derived based on the concept of maximization of the hydrological water balance equation. Optimum sizing of the recharge filter based on the minimum cost was formulated using the optimization model. The optimization model was solved using the Snopt non-linear programming optimization model of the AMPL software. The results of the optimization model were also compared with the analytical framework. Sensitivity analyses using an analytical framework indicated that size, time of filling and empty time for the recharge filter were more sensitive to the changes in watershed area and watershed condition as compared to the diameter of the discharge pipe, the porosity of the filter material and depth of the recharge filter. It could be concluded that the derived optimization model incorporating the derived analytical expressions can successfully be used for optimum sizing and evaluation of the effectiveness of the recharge filter of any shape and locations in different hydro-climatic regions.

Global Evapotranspiration Datasets Assessment Using Water Balance in South America

Evapotranspiration (ET) connects the land to the atmosphere, linking water, energy, and carbon cycles. ET is an essential climate variable with a fundamental importance, and accurate assessments of the spatiotemporal trends and variability in ET are needed from regional to continental scales. This study compared eight global actual ET datasets (ETgl) and the average actual ET ensemble (ETens) based on remote sensing, climate reanalysis, land-surface, and biophysical models to ET computed from basin-scale water balance (ETwb) in South America on monthly time scale. The 50 small-to-large basins covered major rivers and different biomes and climate types. We also examined the magnitude, seasonality, and interannual variability of ET, comparing ETgl and ETens with ETwb. Global ET datasets were evaluated between 2003 and 2014 from the following datasets: Breathing Earth System Simulator (BESS), ECMWF Reanalysis 5 (ERA5), Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS), Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model (GLEAM), MOD16, Penman–Monteith–Leuning (PML), Operational Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEBop) and Terra Climate. By using ETwb as a basis for comparison, correlation coefficients ranged from 0.45 (SSEBop) to 0.60 (ETens), and RMSE ranged from 35.6 (ETens) to 40.5 mm·month−1 (MOD16). Overall, ETgl estimates ranged from 0 to 150 mm·month−1 in most basins in South America, while ETwb estimates showed maximum rates up to 250 mm·month−1. ETgl varied by hydroclimatic regions: (i) basins located in humid climates with low seasonality in precipitation, including the Amazon, Uruguay, and South Atlantic basins, yielded weak correlation coefficients between monthly ETgl and ETwb, and (ii) tropical and semiarid basins (areas where precipitation demonstrates a strong seasonality, as in the São Francisco, Northeast Atlantic, Paraná/Paraguay, and Tocantins basins) yielded moderate-to-strong correlation coefficients. An assessment of the interannual variability demonstrated a disagreement between ETgl and ETwb in the humid tropics (in the Amazon), with ETgl showing a wide range of interannual variability. However, in tropical, subtropical, and semiarid climates, including the Tocantins, São Francisco, Paraná, Paraguay, Uruguay, and Atlantic basins (Northeast, East, and South), we found a stronger agreement between ETgl and ETwb for interannual variability. Assessing ET datasets enables the understanding of land–atmosphere exchanges in South America, to improvement of ET estimation and monitoring for water management.

Variability of Mean Annual Flows in Southern Quebec (Canada)

Snow is the main source of streamflow in temperate regions characterized by very cold and snowy winters. Due to global warming, these regions are experiencing a significant decrease in snowfall. The main objective of this study is to analyze the impacts of snowfall on the spatio-temporal variability of mean annual flows (MAFs) of 17 rivers, grouped into three hydroclimatic regions, from 1930 to 2019 in southern Quebec. In terms of spatial variability, snowfall is the variable most correlated with MAFs (positive correlation), followed by drainage density (positive correlation) and wetland surface areas (negative correlation). Due to the influence of these three factors, MAF values are generally higher in the most agricultural watersheds of the southeastern hydroclimatic region on the south shore than in the less agricultural watersheds of the southwestern hydroclimatic region on the north shore of the St. Lawrence River. As for temporal variability, the four statistical tests applied to the hydrological series detect no significant downward trend in MAFs, despite having reduced snowfall. Instead, they suggest an evolution toward an increase in mean annual flows, as a result of increased rainfall due to the increase in temperature. This evolution is more pronounced on the north shore than on the south shore, likely due to the presence of wetlands and others water bodies, whose runoff water storage capacity does not change over time to be able to store the surplus of the quantity of water brought by the increase in rain.

Using invertebrate functional traits to improve flow variability assessment within European rivers

Rivers are among the most threatened ecosystems worldwide and are experiencing rapid biodiversity loss. Flow alteration due to climate change, water abstraction and augmentation is a severe stressor on many aquatic communities. Macroinvertebrates are widely used for biomonitoring river ecosystems although current taxonomic approaches used to characterise ecological responses to flow have limitations in terms of generalisation across biogeographical regions. A new macroinvertebrate trait-based index, Flow-T, derived from ecological functional information (flow velocity preferences) currently available for almost 500 invertebrate taxa at the European scale is presented. The index was tested using data from rivers spanning different biogeographic and hydro-climatic regions from the UK, Cyprus and Italy. The performance of Flow-T at different spatial scales and its relationship with an established UK flow assessment tool, the Lotic-invertebrate Index for Flow Evaluation (LIFE), was assessed to determine the transferability of the approach internationally. Flow-T was strongly correlated with the LIFE index using both presence-absence and abundance weighted data from all study areas (r varying from 0.46 to 0.96). When applied at the river reach scale, Flow-T was effective in identifying communities associated with distinct mesohabitats characterised by their hydraulic characteristics (e.g., pools, riffles, glides). Flow-T can be derived using both presence/absence and abundance data and can be easily adapted to varying taxonomic resolutions. The trait-based approach facilitates research using the entire European invertebrate fauna and can potentially be applied in regions where information on taxa-specific flow velocity preferences is not currently available. The inter-regional and continental scale transferability of Flow-T may help water resource managers gauge the effects of changes in flow regime on instream communities at varying spatial scales.

Mapping actual evapotranspiration using Landsat for the conterminous United States: Google Earth Engine implementation and assessment of the SSEBop model

The estimation and mapping of actual evapotranspiration (ETa) is an active area of applied research in the fields of agriculture and water resources. Thermal remote sensing-based methods, using coarse resolution satellites, have been successful at estimating ETa over the conterminous United States (CONUS) and other regions of the world. In this study, we present CONUS-wide ETa from Landsat thermal imagery-using the Operational Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEBop) model in the Google Earth Engine (GEE) cloud computing platform. Over 150,000 Landsat satellite images were used to produce 10 years of annual ETa (2010–2019) at unprecedented scale. The accuracy assessment of the SSEBop results included point-based evaluation using monthly Eddy Covariance (EC) data from 25 AmeriFlux stations as well as basin-scale comparison with annual Water Balance ETa (WBET) for more than 1000 sub-basins. Evaluations using EC data showed generally mixed performance with weaker (R2 < 0.6) correlation on sparsely vegetated surfaces such as grasslands or woody savanna and stronger correlation (R2 > 0.7) over well-vegetated surfaces such as croplands and forests, but location-specific conditions rather than cover type were attributed to the variability in accuracy. Croplands performed best with R2 of 0.82, root mean square error of 29 mm/month, and average bias of 12%. The WBET evaluation indicated that the SSEBop model is strong in explaining the spatial variability (up to R2 > 0.90) of ETa across large basins, but it also identified broad hydro-climatic regions where the SSEBop ETa showed directional biases, requiring region-specific model parameter improvement and/or bias correction with an overall 7% bias nationwide. Annual ETa anomalies over the 10-year period captured widely reported drought-affected regions, for the most part, in different parts of the CONUS, indicating their potential applications for mapping regional- and field-scale drought and fire effects. Due to the coverage of the Landsat Path/Row system, the availability of cloud-free image pixels ranged from less than 12 (mountainous cloud-prone regions and U.S. Northeast) to more than 60 (U.S. Southwest) per year. However, this study reinforces a promising application of Landsat satellite data with cloud-computing for quick and efficient mapping of ETa for agricultural and water resources assessments at the field scale.

Advancing flood warning procedures in ungauged basins with machine learning

Flood prediction across scales and more specifically in ungauged areas remains a great challenge that limits the efficiency of flood risk mitigation strategies and disaster preparedness. Building upon the recent success of Machine Learning (ML) models on streamflow prediction, this work presents a prototype ML-based framework for flood warning and flood peak prediction. The fundamental elements of the proposed system consist of a) a Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) model for classifying storm events to Flood/no-Flood given a threshold based on the 90th flow percentile and b) the flood peak prediction models. The selected ML-models for flood peak prediction are the Histogram based Gradient Boosting Regressor and the Random Forest. One of the strengths, and reason for selection, of these decision-tree models is their degree of interpretability. This is exploited in the study to help us spatially disentangle the role of both the static and dynamic drivers of flood peak response. Our analysis is presented for 18 distinct hydroclimatic regions across the contiguous US. Results reveal a significant regional dependence on both predictive performance and dominant flood predictors, which emphasize the variability in the complexity of a catchment’s hydrologic behavior as well as its impact on forecasting flood response. Evaluation of the drivers of flood peaks noted distinct dependencies among the dynamic and static predictors considered in our models for flood peaks of different severity. Specifically, low-moderate flood events showed a clear preponderance for the static catchment attributes over dynamic predictors like precipitation whereas precipitation was the dominant driver for the highest flood peaks. The proposed flood peak prediction models were compared against a state-of-the-art LSTM model and were shown to outperform in ungauged basins for the majority of basins. Overall, the proposed system classified storms correctly for >80% in all cases and exhibited a percent relative difference in flood peak estimates of <30% in most cases.