Hydroclimatic Variability Research Articles

Distinctive Patterns of Water Level Change in Swedish Lakes Driven by Climate and Human Regulation

AbstractDespite having approximately 100,000 lakes, Sweden has limited continuous gauged lake water level data. Although satellite radar altimetry (RA) has emerged as a popular alternative to measure water levels in inland water bodies, it has not yet been used to understand the large‐scale changes in Swedish lakes. Here, we quantify the changes in water levels in 144 lakes using RA data and in situ gauged measurements to examine the effects of flow regulation and hydroclimatic variability. We use data from several RA missions, including ERS‐2, ENVISAT, JASON‐1,2,3, SARAL, and Sentinel‐3A/B. We found that during 1995–2022, around 52% of the lakes exhibited an increasing trend and 43% a decreasing trend. Most lakes exhibiting an increasing trend were in the north of Sweden, while most lakes showing a decreasing trend were in the south. Regarding the potential effects of regulation, we found that unregulated lakes had smaller trends in water level and dynamic storage than regulated ones. While the seasonal patterns of water levels in the lakes in the north are similar in regulated and unregulated lakes, in the south, they differ substantially. This study highlights the need to continuously monitor lake water levels for adaptation strategies in the face of climate change and understand the downstream effects of water regulatory schemes.

Trend analysis of hydro-climatic variables in the Great Lakes Depression region of Mongolia

Abstract Arid and semi-arid regions are the first to be affected by hydro-climatic changes. The Great Lakes Depression Basin in western Mongolia is the most notable example of such a region. Therefore, analyzing hydro-climatic changes in the Great Lakes Depression region is essential for future climate, hydrological, eco-hydrological processes, and ecosystem studies in similar areas and basins. In this study, Mann–Kendall (MK), innovative trend analysis method (ITAM), and Sen's slope estimator test (SSET) were used to determine the interrelationship between climate and river discharge changes and lake water level changes through statistical analysis. During the last 30 years, the air temperature has increased by 1.2 °C (Z = 1.16). Total annual precipitation decreased by 23.44 mm, resulting in 134.16 mm (Z = −0.79). The river discharge of the major rivers, such as Khovd River (Z = −3.51) and Zavkhan River (Z = −6.01), has significantly decreased. In Uvs (Z = 0.30) and Khyargas (Z = 2.03) lakes, the water level has also dropped. This study confirms that the increase in air temperature in the depression area of the Great Lakes reduces the amount of precipitation, and the decrease in precipitation affects the decrease in river discharge, which further affects the water level of the inflowing lakes.

Historical climate impact attribution of changes in river flow and sediment loads at selected gauging stations in the Nile basin

The Nile basin is the second largest basin in Africa and one of the regions experiencing high climatic diversity with variability of precipitation and deteriorating water resources. As climate change is affecting most of the hydroclimatic variables across the world, this study assesses whether historical changes in river flow and sediment loads at selected gauges in the Nile basin can be attributed to climate change. An impact attribution approach is employed by constraining a process-based model with a set of factual and counterfactual climate forcing data for 69 years (1951–2019), from the impact attribution setup of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3a). To quantify the role of climate change, we use the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test to identify trends and calculate the differences in long-term mean annual river flow and sediment load simulations between a model setup using factual and counterfactual climate forcing data. Results for selected river stations in the Lake Victoria basin show reasonable evidence of a long-term historical increase in river flows (two stations) and sediment load (one station), largely attributed to changes in climate. In contrast, within the Blue Nile and Main Nile basins, there is a slight decrease of river flows at four selected stations under factual climate, which can be attributed to climate change, but no significant changes in sediment load (one station). These findings show spatial differences in the impacts of climate change on river flows and sediment load in the study area for the historical period.

Climate and landform interact to control the source and transport of nitrate in Pacific Northwest rivers

The hydrological effects of climate change are documented in many regions; however, climate-driven impacts to the source and transport of river nutrients remain poorly understood. Understanding the factors controlling nutrient dynamics across river systems is critical to preserve ecosystem function yet challenging given the complexity of landscape and climate interactions. Here, we harness a large regional dataset of nitrate (NO3–) yield, concentration, and isotopic composition (δ15N and δ18O) to evaluate the strength of hydroclimate and landscape variables in controlling the seasonal source and transport of NO3–. We show that hydroclimate strongly influenced the seasonality of river NO3–, producing distinct, source-dependent NO3– regimes across rivers from two mountain ranges. Riverine responses to hydroclimate were also constrained by watershed-scale topographic features, demonstrating that while regional climate strongly influences the timing of river NO3– transport, watershed topography plays a distinct role in mediating the sensitivity of river NO3– dynamics to future change.

Temporal and spatial patterns of hydroclimate variability related to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation in Michigan, USA

ABSTRACT Teleconnections play an influential role in driving atmospheric circulation and hydroclimatic variability at regional and global scales. While hydroclimatic conditions are associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) throughout North America, to date there has been limited study on the influence of the PDO on the hydroclimate of Michigan. Using statistical analyses, this study quantified the mean monthly streamflow, precipitation and temperature characteristics in climate divisions and stream gage stations in both the Upper and Lower Peninsulas of Michigan during the warm (+) and cool (-) phases of the PDO from 1967 to 2018. Streamflow is greater statewide during PDO+ phases compared to during PDO- phases, and most prominent from August to February. During the peak month of streamflow difference by PDO phase, November, there was a streamflow increase of nearly 26% during PDO+ phases compared to the long-term mean. In relation, mean monthly precipitation increased (decreased) statewide from August to November during PDO+ (PDO-) phases, with decreased (increased) monthly precipitation from December to July. This study advances our understanding of the PDO’s influence on hydroclimatic variability in Michigan, presenting novel results at intra-seasonal scales in this highly impactful and populated region.

CAMELS‐SE: Long‐term hydroclimatic observations (1961–2020) across 50 catchments in Sweden as a resource for modelling, education, and collaboration

AbstractThis paper introduces a community‐accessible dataset comprising daily hydroclimatic variables (precipitation, temperature, and streamflow) observed in 50 catchments in Sweden (median size of 1019 km2). The dataset covers a 60‐year period (1961–2020) and includes information on geographical location, landcover, soil classes, hydrologic signatures, and regulation for each catchment. Data were collected from various sources, such as the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, the Swedish Geological Survey, and several Copernicus products provided by the European Environment Agency. The compiled, spatially‐matched, and processed data are publicly available online through the Swedish National Data Service (https://snd.se/en), contributing a new region to the collection of existing CAMELS (Catchment Attributes and Meteorology for Large‐sample Studies) datasets. The CAMELS‐SE dataset spans a wide range of hydroclimatic, topographic, and environmental catchment properties, making it a valuable resource for researchers and practitioners to study hydrological processes, climate dynamics, environmental impacts, and sustainable water management strategies in Nordic regions.

A speleothem record of hydroclimate variability in northwestern Madagascar during the mid-late Holocene

We present a continuous high-resolution precisely dated multiproxy record of hydroclimate variability at Anjohibe cave in northwestern Madagascar using speleothem AB13. The record spans from ~4484 y BP to ~2863 y BP. Stalagmite δ18O, δ13C and Sr/Ca ratios show very similar changes in hydroclimate. The mechanism controlling Sr/Ca changes, however, from prior calcite precipitation to degree of dolomite dissolution at about 4 ky BP. Our record is also in good agreement with previously published speleothem records from the same area. This agreement and multiproxy consensus indicate that AB13 provides a robust record of hydroclimate variability, including a continuous record of hydroclimate variability across the 4.2 ka event. This 4.2 ka event in Madagascar is marked by two distinct periods of drying between ~3900 y BP to 4300 y BP. A dry 4.2 ka event at this Southern Hemisphere site helps limit possible mechanisms for the event, indicating that a meridional shift to the south in the ITCZ is not responsible for the 4.2 ka event. In addition, the 4.2 ka event does not stand out as a unique dry period in our record. The longest and driest period of the record lasted ~300 years with peak dryness at ~3000 y BP. Our record differs significantly from a speleothem record from Rodrigues Island, located ~1800 km to the east of our study area in Madagascar suggesting different climatological controls on northwest Madagascar and more oceanic sites to the east.

Declining groundwater and its impacts along Ganga riverfronts using combined Sentinel-1, GRACE, water levels, and rainfall data

The Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGP) in northern India are vast alluvial tracts with huge shallow aquifers, densely populated and agriculturally productive regions. In the last few decades, IGP has been facing water scarcity driven by erratic monsoon dynamics, anthropogenic activity, and hydroclimatic variability. In urban centers, continuous groundwater withdrawal leads to high stress, affecting surface deformation and a threat to buildings and infrastructures. An attempt has been made to explore the possible linkage and coupling between groundwater level, hydroclimatic variables, and subsidence in the Central Ganga Plains (CGP), in Varanasi metropolis using the combined multisensory multitemporal data, Sentinel-1 (2017–2023), GRACE (2003–2023), groundwater levels (1998–2023), and precipitation (2002–2023). Long-term hydrological response in the CGP shows continuous depletion (14.6 ± 5.6 mm/yr) in response to precipitation variability. Results show spatiotemporal variations between GWS, and precipitation estimate with nonlinear trend response due to associated inter-annual/inter-seasonal climate variability and anthropogenic water withdrawal, specifically during the observed drought years. The significant storage response in the urban center compared to a regional extent suggests the potential impact of exponentially increasing urbanization and building hydrological stress in the cities. The implications of reducing storage capacity show measured land subsidence (∼2–8 mm/yr) patterns developed along the meandering stretch of the Ganga riverfronts in Varanasi. The groundwater level data from the piezometric supports the hydroclimatic variables and subsidence coupling. Considering the vital link between water storage, food security, and socioeconomic growth, the results of this study require systematic inclusion in water management strategies as climate change seriously impacts water resources in the future.

Reconstructing Historical Intense and Total Summer Rainfall in Central North Carolina Using Tree-Ring Data (1770–2020)

Contextualizing historic hydroclimate variability in the southeastern USA has relied significantly on proxy indicators such as tree-ring data, and while previous studies have reconstructed total precipitation, less is known about the historic variability of intense rainfall events, which are climatologically and ecologically important and distinct from non-intense rainfall events. Here, a combined longleaf pine and shortleaf pine adjusted latewood chronology spanning 1770–2020 was used to reconstruct July–September total precipitation and intense rainfall event precipitation in central North Carolina, USA. The adjusted latewood chronology explains 46% of the variance in July–September total precipitation and 37% of the variance in July–September intense rainfall event precipitation during the 1940–2020 instrumental period with intense rainfall event precipitation amounts comprising 52% of total precipitation amounts. The models provide context about historic hydroclimate variability at this location and suggest overall stability in both total and intense rainfall event precipitation amounts during the instrumental and reconstruction periods with three identical significant regime shifts during 1770–2020: 1770–1935, 1936–1959 (above-average moisture), 1960–2020 (below-average moisture). To compare model strength, the models were split into early (1940–1980) and late (1981–2020) analysis periods with the intense rainfall event precipitation model exhibiting greater skill during the early analysis period. The early analysis period has a greater frequency and magnitude of intense rainfall events, and these results suggest the influence of intense rainfall event precipitation on latewood growth and the potential susceptibility of reconstruction models to decreased skill and/or error with differing frequencies of extreme events, a finding of particular importance to future dendroclimatic research.

Upper Colorado River Streamflow Dependencies on Summertime Synoptic Circulations and Hydroclimate Variability

Abstract The southwestern United States is highly sensitive to drought, prompting efforts to understand and predict its hydroclimate. Oftentimes, the emphasis is on wintertime precipitation variability, yet the southwestern United States exhibits a summertime monsoon where a significant portion of annual precipitation falls through daily convection activities manifested by a midtropospheric ridge of high pressure. Here, we examine synoptic patterns of the southwestern ridge through a k-means clustering analysis and assess how these synoptic patterns translate into streamflow changes in the upper Colorado River basin. A linear perspective suggests ∼17% of upper Colorado River discharge at the Lee’s Ferry, Arizona, gauge comes from summertime monsoon rains. The ridge of high pressure exhibits diversity in its intensity, structure, and position, inducing changes in moisture advection and precipitation. A ridge shifted north or east of its climatological center increases moisture and precipitation over the southwestern United States, while a ridge toward the south or northwest inhibits precipitation. A ridge east of its climatological center contributes to increased streamflow, whereas a ridge west or northwest of its climatological center decreases streamflow. Cooling in the central tropical Pacific and the Pacific meridional mode region favors an eastward shift of the ridge of high pressure corresponding to wet days. Eastern tropical Pacific warming favors a southward shift of the ridge corresponding to dry days. These results support an intermediate scale between climate forcing and summertime Colorado River discharge through changes in the intensity, structure, and position of the southwestern ridge of high pressure, integral to the U.S. Southwest hydroclimate.

Spatiotemporal Variability Analysis of Glaciers in the Hindukush Region of Pakistan Using Remote Sensing Data

Headwater in the Indus River in Pakistan is largely dependent on the glaciers located in the northern part of the country, along with other sources such as direct precipitation. Glaciers are a major source of freshwater that provides agriculture and livelihood to millions of people. The hydro-climatic variations in the Gilgit watershed of the Upper Indus basin are poorly investigated scientifically due to high topographical differences, geography, remoteness of the region, and larger variations in climatic conditions. These glaciers are continuously changing due to melting as a consequence of global warming or accumulation due to snowfall/precipitation at higher altitude regions. The study is carried out using remote sensing data to quantify glacier changes in spatiotemporal variability in the past three decades. Five glaciers in the Gilgit region (near the junction of the Hindukush and Karakoram Mountains) with an area of more than 5 square kilometers were selected, namely Phakor, Karamber, East Gammu, Bhort, and Bad-e-Swat glaciers. These glaciers were monitored for changes in their sizes through a cloud-free continuous series of Landsat satellite imagery. The annual climatic trends were studied through spatially interpolated gridded climate data WοrldClim version-1 climate database for 1970–2000, utilized for assessment of meteorological condition by analyzing the variations of minimum and maximum temperature, solar radiation, and precipitation. The temporal variations in five glaciers in the Gilgit watershed are found to be minimal and, thus, are rather stable and show no sign of rapid melting or diminishing. The little variability of glaciers’ extent may be attributed to their geographic condition, altitude, topography, and orientation. The mapped glacier classes have been validated to check the accuracy assessment through an error matrix method. The kappa coefficient from the error matrix has been calculated as 84%, which shows a good agreement. The study makes a critical input towards understanding the dynamics of the glacier in the upper Indus catchment’s Gilgit watershed.

Celerity of Ice Breakup Front in the Regulated Peace River, Canada, and Implications for the Recharge of the Peace–Athabasca Delta

Timely release of flow from upstream hydropower generation facilities on the Peace River can enhance potential ice-jam flooding near the drying Peace–Athabasca Delta (PAD), a Ramsar wetland of international importance and homeland to Indigenous Peoples. An important consideration in deciding whether and when to commence a release is the celerity of the breakup front as it advances along the Peace River. Relevant historical data for a key stretch of the river are analyzed to determine average celerities, which can vary by an order of magnitude from year to year. Seven breakup events are identified that might have been candidates for a release, and the predictability of associated celerities is explored in terms of antecedent hydroclimatic variables, including cumulative winter snowfall, snow water equivalent on 1 April, ice cover thickness, coldness of the winter, and freezeup level. It is shown that celerity can be predicted to within a factor of two or less, with the freezeup level giving the best results. Three of the seven “promising” events culminated in PAD floods and were associated with the three highest celerities. The empirical findings are shown to generally align with physical understanding of breakup driving and resisting factors.

Holocene Hydroclimatic Variations in the Asian Drylands: Current Understanding and Future Perspectives

Holocene Hydroclimatic Variations in the Asian Drylands: Current Understanding and Future Perspectives

Long-Term Trends and Variability of Hydroclimate Variables and Their Linkages with Climate Indices in the Songhua River

The long-term trends and variability of hydroclimate variables are critical for water resource management, as well as adaptation to climate change. Three popular methods were used in this study to explore the trends and variability of hydroclimate variables during last 122 years in the Songhua River (SHR), one of most important river systems in China. Results show the followings: (1) There was an obvious pattern of decadal oscillations, with three positive and three negative precipitation and streamflow anomalies. The lengths of these phases vary from 11 to 36 years. (2) Annual temperature demonstrated a statistically significant increasing trend in the last 122 years, and the trend magnitude was 0.30 °C/10 years in the last 50–60 years, being larger than that of the global surface temperature. It has increased much faster since 1970. (3) Monthly precipitation in the winter season in recent years was almost the same as that in earlier periods, but a significantly increasing monthly streamflow was observed due to snowmelt under a warming climate. (4) A statistically significant correlation between hydroclimate variables and climate indices can be determined. These results could be used to make better water resource management decisions in the SHR, especially under future climate change scenarios.

Future water storage changes over the Mediterranean, Middle East, and North Africa in response to global warming and stratospheric aerosol intervention

Abstract. Water storage plays a profound role in the lives of people across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) as it is the most water-stressed region worldwide. The lands around the Caspian and Mediterranean seas are simulated to be very sensitive to future climate warming. Available water capacity depends on hydroclimate variables such as temperature and precipitation that will depend on socioeconomic pathways and changes in climate. This work explores changes in both the mean and extreme terrestrial water storage (TWS) under an unmitigated greenhouse gas (GHG) scenario (SSP5-8.5) and stratospheric aerosol intervention (SAI) designed to offset GHG-induced warming above 1.5 ∘C and compares both with historical period simulations. Both mean TWS and extreme TWS are projected to significantly decrease under SSP5-8.5 over the domain, except for the Arabian Peninsula, particularly in the wetter lands around the Caspian and Mediterranean seas. Relative to global warming, SAI partially ameliorates the decreased mean TWS in the wet regions, while it has no significant effect on the increased TWS in drier lands. In the entire domain studied, the mean TWS is larger under SAI than pure GHG forcing, mainly due to the significant cooling and, in turn, a substantial decrease in evapotranspiration under SAI relative to SSP5-8.5. Changes in extreme water storage excursions under global warming are reduced by SAI. Extreme TWS under both future climate scenarios is larger than throughout the historical period across Iran, Iraq, and the Arabian Peninsula, but the response of the more continental eastern North Africa hyper-arid climate is different from the neighboring dry lands. In the latter case, we note a reduction in the mean TWS trend under both GHG and SAI scenarios, with extreme TWS values also showing a decline compared to historical conditions.

Holocene climatic and tectonic forcing of decadal hydroclimate variation on the north-eastern Tibetan Plateau

A better understanding of past climate and landscape variability in high resolution on the Tibetan Plateau is of critical importance for the understanding of fundamental mechanisms and interactions in the global climate system. However, due to relatively few datasets in decadal-resolution available for analyzing possible seasonal effects and seismic activity on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau, further high-resolution lake records as an integration need to be explored to test the significance of the seasonal variations of surface processes and climatic phenomena as well as tectonic impact on a decadal scale. The rhomb-shaped pull-apart Lake Donggi Cona along the modern monsoon marginal zone on the north-eastern TP is considered an excellent archive that monitors neotectonic and climatic changes through time. We obtained new high-resolution (mean 20 yr) proxy records from a 488 cm-long sediment core from the lake and compare them directly with paleoclimate records from nearby lakes. A decadal-resolution oxygen stable isotope (δ18O) record co-varies positively with carbonate content and demonstrates the profound and varying contribution of glacier/snow melt (winter/spring moisture) to lake hydrology at different lake evolution stages. This is also indicated by the grain size composition and related endmember modelling (EMMA) results. During 11.8–9.4 cal Ka BP, the lake experienced a swamp status, apart from the major lake body followed by water rise towards the littoral zone until 7.5 cal Ka BP. Glacier melt water supply started to be active since the late Younger Dryas and led to the strong excursions of carbonate contents and δ18O values according to insolation increase. This phase was dominated by the westerlies and characterized as low seasonality with long winter duration. Water rose to its highest level during 7.5–6.5 cal Ka BP and fluctuated with deep water phases until 4.7 cal Ka BP, due to glacier melt maxima and potential increase of summer (convective) moisture preserved in the oxygen isotopic signals. Water cover dropped and remained low until 2.9 cal Ka BP due to the reduced glacier melt and colder climate. However, the low δ18O values at a reduced water budget points to the still active contribution of spring glacier/snow melt that kept the lake not dry-up unlike other lakes with no glacier melt water supply. After 2.9 cal Ka BP water level dropped towards a pond/lagoon situation until 2.0 cal Ka BP, albeit temperature rise after a long cold climatic interlude. It might be caused by another phase of lake deepening triggered by subsidence and related sediment relocation from the shore, rather than by climatic factors. However, water level increased again afterwards and fluctuated towards the present level due to non-summer moisture supply in long freezing winters. We assume profound signatures of high seasonality in climate after 7.5 cal Ka BP and the lake became open since1.3 cal Ka BP. We suggest that combined thermal forcing by glacier/snow melt and tectonics play a significant role together with solar forcing, governing hydroclimate changes on the north-eastern Tibetan Plateau with decadal to millennial cycles.

Eccentricity Forcing of the Hydrological Cycle in East Asia During the Early Eocene Climatic Optimum (EECO)

AbstractThe Early Eocene Climatic Optimum (EECO) may be a potentially useful analog for future global warming under high CO2 concentrations. However, a paucity of orbital‐scale terrestrial records limits our understanding of how the hydrological cycle responded during this protracted (∼4 Myr) interval of global warmth. In this study, we combine zircon U‐Pb dating and cyclostratigraphy to establish a high‐resolution astronomical timescale spanning the EECO (∼52.9 Ma to ∼49.9 Ma) through a >1 km fluviolacustrine succession from the Gonjo Basin, Southeast Tibet. Our results suggest that hydroclimate variability in the region during this interval was strongly controlled by eccentricity forcing (∼405 Kyr, ∼135–100 Kyr, and possibly ∼200 Kyr cycles). The dominance of eccentricity forcing in our record is consistent with coeval marine records, and indicates that modulation of low‐latitude summer insolation through nonlinear interactions with the global carbon cycle likely controlled hydroclimate and paleolake level in the Gonjo basin during the EECO. Our study offers new perspectives for the forcing mechanisms of terrestrial hydroclimate changes of East Asia in response to subtle changes in insolation during the EECO.

Relationship of Hydroclimate Variables and Power Generation in Jebba Dam, North Central Nigeria

This study aims to determine a relationship between power generation and hydroclimate elements. The Mann-Kendall test, Sen’s slope tests, Pearson’s correlation and linear regression have been used for data analysis. The results of monthly hydroclimate elements showed mixed increasing and decreasing trends. The annual rainfall, maximum and minimum temperature showed an increasing trend, while evaporation showed decreasing trends. The annual inflow and outflow showed significantly increasing trends, while reservoir elevation showed a significant decreasing trend. The annual hydropower generation showed a non-significant increasing trend implying power generation has risen over the years. The Pearson’s correlation results showed a positive relationship between rainfall, hydropower generation while other climate elements showed a weak negative relationship. This relationship implies that climate factors play an insignificant role in power generation at Jebba dam. However, the consistently increased temperature trends in the Jebba dam could indicate climate variability and change. Contrary to other studies, we concluded that climate might not significantly influence hydropower generation at Jebba dam, Nigeria. Although continuing climate studies are encouraged, we recommended that authorities focus more on other factors for optimum power generation.

Holocene process-based hydroclimate evolution coupled with human behaviours in Dian Lake basin, Southwest China

Lakes are considered excellent archives for the reconstruction of sedimentary processes and related hydroclimatic variations. Dian Lake in south-western China was selected to demonstrate the impacts of Indian summer monsoon-induced water and sediment availabilities on land surface changes and human behaviours. A new sediment core from Dian Lake in the vicinity of Hebosuo village was analyzed by grain size composition, geochemical content, and minerals to detect land-lake processes that responded to hydroclimatic variations and human impacts through the Holocene. Our data suggest that Dian Lake levels during the last 9.8 cal. ka BP were controlled by the variations of the Indian summer monsoon moisture supply according to the displacements of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. A low lake level stage of ∼ 4 m lower than present was determined between 3.1 and 1.73 cal. ka BP, allowing the residents of the Dian culture to occupy the low terrains for settlement and farmland cultivation. With lake level rise at around 1.73 cal. ka BP (220 CE) the high input of clay-fine silt-sized sediments rich in rubidium and barium indicates intensified soil erosion in the Dian Lake basin. Former paddy farmlands and mountain slopes were drained by artificial and natural channels towards the lake in response to strengthened rainfalls covering low terrains by coarse and red alluvial sediments that fostered the residents to abandon the lowlands in the southern basin until 1368 CE. However, the surface erosion process during this period promoted the elevation of the south-eastern delta so that it could be re-occupied since Ming Dynasty. The Indian summer monsoon influence comparable to the modern pattern was responsible for lake level rise to the present level since then but also triggered high seasonality in flood and drought events to foster manual regulation of flood discharge during the last centuries.

Climate change and water resources

ABSTRACT This is a written version of the Munro Oration delivered at the Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium in Sydney on 13 November 2023. The presentation reflects on climate change and water resources, and on decades of research and practice in hydroclimate and hydrological modelling. The presentation highlights Australian contribution to global research and synthesis, challenges posed by Australia’s unique hydrology, key hydroclimate trends and future projections for Australia, and knowledge, opportunities and challenges in water resources adaptation to hydroclimate variability and climate change.