Spatiotemporal Variability Analysis of Glaciers in the Hindukush Region of Pakistan Using Remote Sensing Data

Abstract

Headwater in the Indus River in Pakistan is largely dependent on the glaciers located in the northern part of the country, along with other sources such as direct precipitation. Glaciers are a major source of freshwater that provides agriculture and livelihood to millions of people. The hydro-climatic variations in the Gilgit watershed of the Upper Indus basin are poorly investigated scientifically due to high topographical differences, geography, remoteness of the region, and larger variations in climatic conditions. These glaciers are continuously changing due to melting as a consequence of global warming or accumulation due to snowfall/precipitation at higher altitude regions. The study is carried out using remote sensing data to quantify glacier changes in spatiotemporal variability in the past three decades. Five glaciers in the Gilgit region (near the junction of the Hindukush and Karakoram Mountains) with an area of more than 5 square kilometers were selected, namely Phakor, Karamber, East Gammu, Bhort, and Bad-e-Swat glaciers. These glaciers were monitored for changes in their sizes through a cloud-free continuous series of Landsat satellite imagery. The annual climatic trends were studied through spatially interpolated gridded climate data WοrldClim version-1 climate database for 1970–2000, utilized for assessment of meteorological condition by analyzing the variations of minimum and maximum temperature, solar radiation, and precipitation. The temporal variations in five glaciers in the Gilgit watershed are found to be minimal and, thus, are rather stable and show no sign of rapid melting or diminishing. The little variability of glaciers’ extent may be attributed to their geographic condition, altitude, topography, and orientation. The mapped glacier classes have been validated to check the accuracy assessment through an error matrix method. The kappa coefficient from the error matrix has been calculated as 84%, which shows a good agreement. The study makes a critical input towards understanding the dynamics of the glacier in the upper Indus catchment’s Gilgit watershed.