Hurricane Vulnerability Research Articles

State of the Art of Hurricane Vulnerability Estimation Methods: A Review

AbstractThis paper presents a comprehensive review of methods to assess building vulnerability for hurricane catastrophe models. The review identified five main types of assessment approaches judging by the underlying methodology: past-loss data, enhanced damage data, heuristic, physics, and simulation. The applicability of past-loss data-only vulnerability methods proved insufficient for the diversity of situations insurance companies faced. Therefore, modelers complemented this method with engineering and meteorology expert knowledge; these are the enhanced-data models. Expert opinion and subjective probabilities drive the heuristic models; these were short lived in the United States, but are still used when data are scarce. Component-based methods were developed as a more realistic alternative to enhanced-data models by assessing vulnerability within an engineering framework complemented with expert opinion. Simulation models enhanced the physical models with a probabilistic simulation of the wind-stru...

Regional loss estimation due to hurricane wind and hurricane-induced surge considering climate variability

This paper presents a framework to assess the potential hurricane damage risks to residential construction. Studies show that hurricane wind, frequency and/or hurricane-induced surge may change as a result of climate change; therefore, hurricane risk assessments should be capable of accounting for the impacts climate change. The framework includes a hurricane wind field model, hurricane-induced surge height model and hurricane vulnerability models. Three case study locations (Miami-Dade County, FL; New Hanover County, NC and Galveston County, TX) are presented for two types of analyses: annual regional loss estimation and event-based regional loss estimation. Demographic information, such as median house value and changes in house numbers, and distribution of houses for different exposures, is used to estimate the time-dependent probability of damage with or without possible climate change-induced change in wind speed, frequency and/or surge height. Through both analyses, it was found that climate change may have a significant impact on regional hurricane damage losses.

Equally Unprepared: Assessing the Hurricane Vulnerability of Undergraduate Students

AbstractStudents have been described as being both particularly vulnerable to natural disasters and highly resilient in recovery. In addition, they often have been treated as a distinct, homogeneous group sharing similar characteristics. This research tests these ideas through an examination of hurricane-related perceptions and preparations of students in a hurricane-prone area. A survey of over 500 undergraduate students (15% on-campus residents, 85% off campus) was conducted at the University of South Florida, a large, metropolitan-based university located in Tampa Bay, Florida, near the Gulf Coast. Following Mann–Whitney and Kruskal–Wallis tests, results showed that students were ill prepared for hurricanes and lacked specific knowledge of the risk. There were small but statistically significant differences in mean responses with respect to gender, age, and ethnicity on specific questions, while ethnicity most strongly warrants future research. Whether the magnitude of statistical differences results in behavioral differences is unclear. Using discriminant function analysis, attempts to identify heterogeneous subgroups based on gender, ethnicity, and age likewise found weak to moderate significant differences, supporting the contention that students are largely homogeneous with regard to certain aspects of hurricane perceptions and preparedness, though again ethnicity demands closer attention in subsequent studies.

Hurricane vulnerability modeling: Development and future trends

Catastrophe models help to evaluate the vulnerability of the building stock exposed to a hazard. This paper presents a history of the hurricane risk models in Florida, and discusses their relationship to the building codes. The first models were econometric, and failed to predict the insured building losses produced by hurricane Andrew. This led to a change in the loss projection paradigm and to the advent of modern catastrophe modeling. Advantages and challenges of the current methodologies are discussed, including the quality of input, validation, uncertainty, and scope of the outputs. The paper concludes with a brief overview of current and future research in vulnerability modeling.

Caribbean Islands in a Changing Climate

The Caribbean Sea is the second largest sea in the world, covering an area of approximately 2,515,900 kilometers. The region has the largest number of small island developing states (SIDS) and the ...

The Proof of the Planning Is in the Platting: An Evaluation of Florida's Hurricane Exposure Mitigation Planning Mandate

Problem: Florida's 1985 Growth Management Act required the state's coastal communities to include policies for two types of hurricane hazard zones in their comprehensive plans: to direct populations away from coastal high hazard areas (CHHAs) and to maintain evacuation times within larger hurricane vulnerability zones (HVZs). State law requires local governments to initiate measures to implement these policies within one year of state approval of the local plan. Have communities complied with these state mandates? Purpose: This research aims to determine the extent to which post-plan residential development intensities within hurricane hazard zones conform to the state's policy mandate and the degree to which success in this regard can be explained by the quality of local plan maps and policies. Methods: We conducted graphical analysis of development trends, and undertook quasi-experimental analysis of pre- and post-plan residential development inside and outside CHHAs, as well as analyzing correlations between plan quality and post-plan residential development intensity. We also conducted interviews for case studies. Results and conclusions: We found residential exposure to hurricane flood hazards to have increased substantially in the majority of 74 municipalities and 15 coastal counties in Florida after the state approved local comprehensive plans. Residential development inside CHHAs did not slow after plans were adopted by most of these coastal communities. We found better maps and stronger policies to be correlated with lower post-plan development intensity, but the policy quality effect, though not the map quality effect, disappeared after controlling for pre-plan development intensities. These results may be due in part to vesting of development approved prior to adopting the plans, pre-existing zoning entitlements, and Florida's 1995 property rights law. Takeaway for practice: State planning mandates aimed at managing development in critical areas are likely to have only marginal effects because of prior entitlements and the legal and political inertia of existing local plan policies and land development regulations. Research support: Research support was received from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Office of Sea Grant, the Florida Department of Community Affairs, and Florida State University's DeVoe Moore Center.

Forecasting Changes in the Hurricane Wind Vulnerability of a Regional Inventory of Wood-Frame Houses

Current regional hurricane loss estimation models use the present-day vulnerability of the building inventory in predicting future losses and assume that it remains static throughout the time horizon of interest. In reality, the hurricane vulnerability of a region changes with time due to changes in the types and conditions of buildings. Loss estimation models, therefore, may misestimate risk and the effectiveness of mitigation plans based on these loss estimates may be compromised. In this paper, the writers develop a regional vulnerability change model to estimate changes over time in the hurricane wind vulnerability of a regional inventory of wood-frame houses. The model integrates the effects of five types of changes—changing building codes, changing technologies, building demolition and construction, structural aging, and upgrading efforts—in a simulation framework to forecast changes in the vulnerability of a region. Projectile impacts, falling trees, and flooding are not considered currently. A cas...

Hurricane Mitigation of the Florida House Learning Center

The present study aims at investigating the applicability of the Florida Building Code (FBC) wind provisions and demonstrating benefits of the shuttering on the openings in the Florida House Learning Center, a unique demonstration structure with a large number of windows and sliding glass doors. The wind analysis of the building was performed according to the FBC on the currently existing structure with no hurricane shutters and on the strengthened structure with hurricane shutters added to all openings. It was found that wind pressures on walls and roofs for the unshuttered Florida House structure decreased by 0–95% due to the addition of hurricane shuttering. The reduction of the design forces for wall studs, anchor bolts, and uplift varies from 0 to 38% due to the addition of shutters. The only reason for wind pressure differences on the shuttered and unshuttered Florida House structure was the difference between the internal pressures on the “enclosed” and “partially enclosed” buildings, respectively. The significant hurricane mitigation effects of hurricane shutters on the Florida House hurricane vulnerability is demonstrated through the comparison of wind analysis between the shuttered and unshuttered structure.

Hurricane Vulnerability in Latin America and The Caribbean: Normalized Damage and Loss Potentials

In late October 1998, the remnants of Hurricane Mitch stalled over Honduras and Nicaragua, killing more than 10,000 people and causing as much as $8.5 billion in damage. While Central America and the Caribbean have a history of natural disasters, the fatalities and destruction caused by Mitch were the greatest in at least several decades, prompting many questions including: What accounts for the extent of these losses? Is Mitch a harbinger of future disasters in the region? and What might be done in response? This paper seeks to shed light on these questions by examining the historical and geographic context of hurricane vulnerability in Latin America and the Caribbean. The paper examines trends in economic and other societal factors that increase vulnerability to hurricanes in Central America and the Caribbean and includes a case study of normalized hurricane losses in Cuba made possible by newly collected damage data published herein. The paper places its findings into the context of policies related to climate change and natural hazards. The data and analysis in this paper suggest that the impacts of Hurricane Mitch were not anomalous when compared with a normalized record of past losses. Interrelated human-caused factors such as rapidly increasing populations, widespread poverty, deforestation and urbanization are shown to increase vulnerability to natural disasters such as Hurricane Mitch.

Quantitative Model to Forecast Changes in Hurricane Vulnerability of Regional Building Inventory

This paper introduces a quantitative methodology to model the way the hurricane wind vulnerability of a region's building inventory changes over time due, for example, to aging, structural upgrading efforts, construction and demolition of buildings, and changing materials, construction technologies, and building code content and enforcement. The model aims to explore the overall rate of vulnerability change and the relative contributions of various societal and natural factors affecting it, and ultimately to be incorporated into regional risk assessment models. Current risk assessment models assume that a region's vulnerability remains constant over time. The methodology combines a component-based building vulnerability model, simulation, and Markov modeling. The vulnerability changes are represented by changes in the form of fragility curves over time. A limited scope sample analysis is presented for a model residential, wood-frame building category in North Carolina. The sample analysis addresses vulnerability changes due to building code changes only, and includes an investigation of the sensitivity of the results to several key parameters.