Human Mobility Networks Research Articles

SARS-CoV-2 in low-income countries: the need for sustained genomic surveillance

SARS-CoV-2 in low-income countries: the need for sustained genomic surveillance

Impact of network centrality and income on slowing infection spread after outbreaks

The COVID-19 pandemic has shed light on how the spread of infectious diseases worldwide are importantly shaped by both human mobility networks and socio-economic factors. However, few studies look at how both socio-economic conditions and the complex network properties of human mobility patterns interact, and how they influence outbreaks together. We introduce a novel methodology, called the Infection Delay Model, to calculate how the arrival time of an infection varies geographically, considering both effective distance-based metrics and differences in regions’ capacity to isolate—a feature associated with socio-economic inequalities. To illustrate an application of the Infection Delay Model, this paper integrates household travel survey data with cell phone mobility data from the São Paulo metropolitan region to assess the effectiveness of lockdowns to slow the spread of COVID-19. Rather than operating under the assumption that the next pandemic will begin in the same region as the last, the model estimates infection delays under every possible outbreak scenario, allowing for generalizable insights into the effectiveness of interventions to delay a region’s first case. The model sheds light on how the effectiveness of lockdowns to slow the spread of disease is influenced by the interaction of mobility networks and socio-economic levels. We find that a negative relationship emerges between network centrality and the infection delay after a lockdown, irrespective of income. Furthermore, for regions across all income and centrality levels, outbreaks starting in less central locations were more effectively slowed by a lockdown. Using the Infection Delay Model, this paper identifies and quantifies a new dimension of disease risk faced by those most central in a mobility network.

Examining income segregation within activity spaces under natural disaster using dynamic mobility network

Rising income segregation perpetuates socioeconomic inequalities, preventing us from developing more sustainable environments. In the literature, little is known about the spatiotemporal dynamics of income segregation under natural disaster. To address this gap, this paper aims to quantify how people experience income segregation in the context of a disaster through their mobility patterns. Specifically, we propose a generalized framework to construct a dynamic mobility network that describes the footprint of residents within their activity spaces, leveraging large-scale mobile phone data. The construction of this network is formulated as a nonlinear programming model and solved by the Lagrangian relaxation and numerical iterative method. A case study is presented to examine income segregation of residents in Harris County (Texas) in access to various critical facilities before, during, and after the winter storm Uri. Our results indicate that income segregation behaviors vary at different critical facilities, as facilities with smaller catchment areas are found to have higher degrees of segregation. We also highlight the disparities in access to critical facilities between low-income and high-income neighborhoods. This paper provides a new venue to better understand income segregation behavior under natural disaster through human mobility networks, which could inform equitable resource allocation in disaster management.

How to control the spatiotemporal spread of Omicron in the region with low vaccination rates.

Currently, finding ways to effectively control the spread of Omicron in regions with low vaccination rates is an urgent issue. In this study, we use a district-level model for predicting the COVID-19 symptom onset risk to explore and control the whole process of spread of Omicron in South Africa at a finer spatial scale. We found that in the early stage of the accelerated spread, Omicron spreads rapidly from the districts at the center of human mobility to other important districts of the human mobility network and its peripheral districts. In the subsequent diffusion-contraction stage, Omicron rapidly spreads to districts with low human mobility and then mainly contracts to districts with the highest human mobility. We found that increasing daily vaccination rates 10 times mainly reduced the symptom onset risk in remote areas with low human mobility. Implementing Alert Level 5 in the three districts at the epicenter, and Alert Level 1 in the remaining 49 districts, the spatial spread related to human mobility was effectively restricted, and the daily onset risk in districts with high human mobility also decreased by 20-80%.

Effective resistance against pandemics: Mobility network sparsification for high-fidelity epidemic simulations.

Network science has increasingly become central to the field of epidemiology and our ability to respond to infectious disease threats. However, many networks derived from modern datasets are not just large, but dense, with a high ratio of edges to nodes. This includes human mobility networks where most locations have a large number of links to many other locations. Simulating large-scale epidemics requires substantial computational resources and in many cases is practically infeasible. One way to reduce the computational cost of simulating epidemics on these networks is sparsification, where a representative subset of edges is selected based on some measure of their importance. We test several sparsification strategies, ranging from naive thresholding to random sampling of edges, on mobility data from the U.S. Following recent work in computer science, we find that the most accurate approach uses the effective resistances of edges, which prioritizes edges that are the only efficient way to travel between their endpoints. The resulting sparse network preserves many aspects of the behavior of an SIR model, including both global quantities, like the epidemic size, and local details of stochastic events, including the probability each node becomes infected and its distribution of arrival times. This holds even when the sparse network preserves fewer than 10% of the edges of the original network. In addition to its practical utility, this method helps illuminate which links of a weighted, undirected network are most important to disease spread.

Reactive–diffusion epidemic model on human mobility networks: Analysis and applications to COVID-19 in China

The complex dynamics of human mobility, combined with sporadic cases of local outbreaks, make assessing the impact of large-scale social distancing on COVID-19 propagation in China a challenge. In this paper, with the travel big dataset supported by Baidu migration platform, we develop a reactive–diffusion epidemic model on human mobility networks to characterize the spatio-temporal propagation of COVID-19, and a novel time-dependent function is incorporated into the model to describe the effects of human intervention. By applying the system control theory, we discuss both constant and time-varying threshold behavior of proposed model. In the context of population mobility-mediated epidemics in China, we explore the transmission patterns of COVID-19 in city clusters. The results suggest that human intervention significantly inhibits the high correlation between population mobility and infection cases. Furthermore, by simulating different population flow scenarios, we reveal spatial diffusion phenomenon of cases from cities with high infection density to cities with low infection density. Finally, our model exhibits acceptable prediction performance using actual case data. The localized analytical results verify the ability of the PDE model to correctly describe the epidemic propagation and provide new insights for controlling the spread of COVID-19.

Estimating Infection-Related Human Mobility Networks Based on Time Series Data of COVID-19 Infection in Japan

Background: Comprehensive and evidence-based countermeasures against emerging infectious diseases have become increasingly important in recent years. COVID-19 and many other infectious diseases are spread by human movement and contact, but complex transportation networks in the 21st century make it difficult to predict disease spread in rapidly changing situations. It is especially challenging to estimate the network of infection transmission in countries where traffic and human movement data infrastructure is not yet developed. Methods: In this study, we devised a method utilizing an ordinary and partial differential equations-based mathematical model and a modified mathematical optimization method to estimate the network of transmission of COVID-19 from the time series data of its infection and applied it to determine its spread across areas in Japan. Furthermore, utilizing the estimated human mobility network, we predicted the spread of infection using the Tokyo Olympics as a model. Findings: We incorporated the effects of soft lockdowns, such as the declaration of a state of emergency, and changes in the infection network due to government-sponsored travel promotion, and revealed that the estimated effective distance captured human mobility changing dynamically in the different stages of the pandemic. The model predicted that the Tokyo Olympic and Paralympic Games would increase the number of infected cases in the host prefectures by up to 80%. Interpretation: The models used in this study are available online, and our data-driven infection network models are scalable, whether it be at the level of a city, town, country, or continent, and applicable anywhere in the world, as long as the time-series data of infections per region is available. These estimations of effective distance and the depiction of infectious disease networks based on actual infection data are expected to be useful in devising data-driven countermeasures against emerging infectious diseases worldwide.

Uncovering the spatiotemporal motif patterns in urban mobility networks by non-negative tensor decomposition

Investigating the macroscopic mobility laws of the population and the microscopic travel characteristics of individuals in a city offers an essential way of understanding the city as a complex system. Research that combines the travel laws of the population and individuals simultaneously poses a challenging and complicated task. In this paper, a 4-dimensional tensor is created to describe the spatiotemporal characteristics of people’s various mobility motifs. Non-negative tensor decomposition is used to identify the principal patterns of time, space, and daily motifs in a city and the level of interactions between them. Moreover, the major network indicators of the human mobility networks constructed in terms of three principal motif patterns are statistically analyzed and calculated from the complex network perspective. Relying on a conjoint analysis of core tensor and network indicators, we find that the three motif patterns correspond to three real-life mobility scenarios: simple motifs dominated by commuting, complex motifs based on more complicated life and entertainment activities, and single trips departing from or arriving at airports or railway stations, respectively. Furthermore, the intra-city mobility networks constituted based on the three motif patterns differ significantly in network heterogeneity, node importance, entropy, and clustering coefficient. This suggests that the existing studies on intra-city human mobility networks that only consider first-order trips may be the average results of aggregations containing many people with different characteristics. In our work, the specific research on the spatiotemporal characteristics of people with different mobility motif patterns can assist policy makers in conducting fine-scale management and implementing specific policies.

Disentangled Spatiotemporal Graph Generative Models

Spatiotemporal graph represents a crucial data structure where the nodes and edges are embedded in a geometric space and their attribute values can evolve dynamically over time. Nowadays, spatiotemporal graph data is becoming increasingly popular and important, ranging from microscale (e.g. protein folding), to middle-scale (e.g. dynamic functional connectivity), to macro-scale (e.g. human mobility network). Although disentangling and understanding the correlations among spatial, temporal, and graph aspects have been a long-standing key topic in network science, they typically rely on network processes hypothesized by human knowledge. They usually fit well towards the properties that the predefined principles are tailored for, but usually cannot do well for the others, especially for many key domains where the human has yet very limited knowledge such as protein folding and biological neuronal networks. In this paper, we aim at pushing forward the modeling and understanding of spatiotemporal graphs via new disentangled deep generative models. Specifically, a new Bayesian model is proposed that factorizes spatiotemporal graphs into spatial, temporal, and graph factors as well as the factors that explain the interplay among them. A variational objective function and new mutual information thresholding algorithms driven by information bottleneck theory have been proposed to maximize the disentanglement among the factors with theoretical guarantees. Qualitative and quantitative experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate the superiority of the proposed model over the state-of-the-arts by up to 69.2% for graph generation and 41.5% for interpretability.

From “Dynamics on Graphs” to “Dynamics of Graphs”: An Adaptive Echo-State Network Solution (Student Abstract)

Many real-world networks evolve over time, which results in dynamic graphs such as human mobility networks and brain networks. Usually, the “dynamics on graphs” (e.g., node attribute values evolving) are observable, and may be related to and indicative of the underlying “dynamics of graphs” (e.g., evolving of the graph topology). Traditional RNN-based methods are not adaptive or scalable for learn- ing the unknown mappings between two types of dynamic graph data. This study presents a AD-ESN, and adaptive echo state network that can automatically learn the best neural net- work architecture for certain data while keeping the efficiency advantage of echo state networks. We show that AD-ESN can successfully discover the underlying pre-defined map- ping function and unknown nonlinear map-ping between time series and graphs.

Identifying biological affinities of Holocene northern Iberian populations through the inner structures of the upper first molars

Neolithisation was a relatively fast process that affected both the interior and coastal zones of the Iberian Peninsula, but it was also a heterogeneous process that had diverse impacts on genomic and cultural diversity. In the Late Neolithic–Chalcolithic, a change in funerary practices, cultural material and trade networks occurred, and genomic heterogeneity decreased, suggesting human mobility and genetic admixture between different Iberian populations. Dental morphology has emerged as an effective tool for understanding genomic variability and biological affinities among ancient human populations. But, surprisingly, less attention has been paid to the morphological traits of inner dental tissues in Holocene European populations and their utility for the study of population dynamics. We applied 3D geometric morphometric methods on the enamel-dentine junction (EDJ) of the first upper molars to explore the biological affinities of north-eastern Iberian Peninsula populations from the Late Neolithic–Chalcolithic to the Bronze Age. Our results show that the EDJ morphologies of the northern Iberian Peninsula populations were generally homogeneous, indicative of genetic admixture as a result of human mobility and exchange networks. However, differences in the EDJ traits in remains from the Can Sadurní site are indicative of distant biological affinities with nearby populations. Additionally, the hypocone associated dentine area and the position of the trigon dentine horns relative to each other on the occlusal surface best describe the variability found among the samples studied. This study highlights the utility of EDJ morphology as a genetic proxy in Holocene population dynamic studies when paleogenomic studies are absent.

Modelling the geographical spread of HIV among MSM in Guangdong, China: a metapopulation model considering the impact of pre-exposure prophylaxis.

Men who have sex with men (MSM) make up the majority of new human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) diagnoses among young people in China. Understanding HIV transmission dynamics among the MSM population is, therefore, crucial for the control and prevention of HIV infections, especially for some newly reported genotypes of HIV. This study presents a metapopulation model considering the impact of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) to investigate the geographical spread of a hypothetically new genotype of HIV among MSM in Guangdong, China. We use multiple data sources to construct this model to characterize the behavioural dynamics underlying the spread of HIV within and between 21 prefecture-level cities (i.e. Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Foshan, etc.) in Guangdong province: the online social network via a gay social networking app, the offline human mobility network via the Baidu mobility website, and self-reported sexual behaviours among MSM. Results show that PrEP initiation exponentially delays the occurrence of the virus for the rest of the cities transmitted from the initial outbreak city; hubs on the movement network, such as Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Foshan are at a higher risk of ‘earliest’ exposure to the new HIV genotype; most cities acquire the virus directly from the initial outbreak city while others acquire the virus from cities that are not initial outbreak locations and have relatively high betweenness centralities, such as Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Shantou. This study provides insights in predicting the geographical spread of a new genotype of HIV among an MSM population from different regions and assessing the importance of prefecture-level cities in the control and prevention of HIV in Guangdong province.This article is part of the theme issue ‘Data science approach to infectious disease surveillance’.

The impact of human mobility networks on the global spread of COVID-19.

Human mobility networks are crucial for a better understanding and controlling the spread of epidemics. Here, we study the impact of human mobility networks on the COVID-19 onset in 203 different countries. We use exponential random graph models to perform an analysis of the country-to-country global spread of COVID-19. We find that most countries had similar levels of virus spreading, with only a few acting as the main global transmitters. Our evidence suggests that migration and tourism inflows increase the probability of COVID-19 case importations while controlling for contiguity, continent co-location and sharing a language. Moreover, we find that air flights were the dominant mode of transportation while male and returning travellers were the main carriers. In conclusion, a mix of mobility and geography factors predicts the COVID-19 global transmission from one country to another. These findings have implications for non-pharmaceutical public health interventions and the management of transborder human circulation.

Effects of COVID-19 government travel restrictions on mobility in a rural border area of Northern Thailand: A mobile phone tracking study.

BackgroundThailand is among the top five countries with effective COVID-19 transmission control. This study examines how news of presence of COVID-19 in Thailand, as well as varying levels of government restriction on movement, affected human mobility in a rural Thai population along the border with Myanmar.MethodsThis study makes use of mobility data collected using a smartphone app. Between November 2019 and June 2020, four major events concerning information dissemination or government intervention give rise to five time intervals of analysis. Radius of gyration is used to analyze movement in each interval, and movement during government-imposed curfew. Human mobility network visualization is used to identify changes in travel patterns between main geographic locations of activity. Cross-border mobility analysis highlights potential for intervillage and intercountry disease transmission.ResultsInter-village and cross-border movement was common in the pre-COVID-19 period. Radius of gyration and cross-border trips decreased following news of the first imported cases. During the government lockdown period, radius of gyration was reduced by more than 90% and cross-border movement was mostly limited to short-distance trips. Human mobility was nearly back to normal after relaxation of the lockdown.ConclusionsThis study provides insight into the impact of the government lockdown policy on an area with extremely low socio-economic status, poor healthcare resources, and highly active cross-border movement. The lockdown had a great impact on reducing individual mobility, including cross-border movement. The quick return to normal mobility after relaxation of the lockdown implies that close monitoring of disease should be continued to prevent a second wave.

Sensor-based localization of epidemic sources on human mobility networks.

We investigate the source detection problem in epidemiology, which is one of the most important issues for control of epidemics. Mathematically, we reformulate the problem as one of identifying the relevant component in a multivariate Gaussian mixture model. Focusing on the study of cholera and diseases with similar modes of transmission, we calibrate the parameters of our mixture model using human mobility networks within a stochastic, spatially explicit epidemiological model for waterborne disease. Furthermore, we adopt a Bayesian perspective, so that prior information on source location can be incorporated (e.g., reflecting the impact of local conditions). Posterior-based inference is performed, which permits estimates in the form of either individual locations or regions. Importantly, our estimator only requires first-arrival times of the epidemic by putative observers, typically located only at a small proportion of nodes. The proposed method is demonstrated within the context of the 2000-2002 cholera outbreak in the KwaZulu-Natal province of South Africa.

Characteristics of human mobility patterns revealed by high-frequency cell-phone position data

Human mobility is an important characteristic of human behavior, but since tracking personalized position to high temporal and spatial resolution is difficult, most studies on human mobility patterns rely on sparsely sampled position data. In this work, we re-examined human mobility patterns via comprehensive cell-phone position data recorded at a high frequency up to every second. We constructed human mobility networks and found that individuals exhibit origin-dependent, path-preferential patterns in their short time-scale mobility. These behaviors are prominent when the temporal resolution of the data is high, and are thus overlooked in most previous studies. Incorporating measured quantities from our high frequency data into conventional human mobility models shows inconsistent statistical results. We finally revealed that the individual preferential transition mechanism characterized by the first-order Markov process can quantitatively reproduce the observed travel patterns at both individual and population levels at all relevant time-scales.

Forecasting confirmed cases of the COVID-19 pandemic with a migration-based epidemiological model

The unprecedented coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is still a worldwide threat to human life since its invasion into the daily lives of the public in the first several months of 2020. Predicting the size of confirmed cases is important for countries and communities to make proper prevention and control policies so as to effectively curb the spread of COVID-19. Different from the 2003 SARS epidemic and the worldwide 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic, COVID-19 has unique epidemiological characteristics in its infectious and recovered compartments. This drives us to formulate a new infectious dynamic model for forecasting the COVID-19 pandemic within the human mobility network, named the SaucIR-model in the sense that the new compartmental model extends the benchmark SIR model by dividing the flow of people in the infected state into asymptomatic, pathologically infected but unconfirmed, and confirmed. Furthermore, we employ dynamic modeling of population flow in the model in order that spatial effects can be incorporated effectively. We forecast the spread of accumulated confirmed cases in some provinces of mainland China and other countries that experienced severe infection during the time period from late February to early May 2020. The novelty of incorporating the geographic spread of the pandemic leads to a surprisingly good agreement with published confirmed case reports. The numerical analysis validates the high degree of predictability of our proposed SaucIR model compared to existing resemblance. The proposed forecasting SaucIR model is implemented in Python. A web-based application is also developed by Dash (under construction).

Intracity Pandemic Risk Evaluation Using Mobile Phone Data: The Case of Shanghai during COVID-19

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has provided an opportunity to rethink the development of a sustainable and resilient city. A framework for comprehensive intracity pandemic risk evaluation using mobile phone data is proposed in this study. Four steps were included in the framework: identification of high-risk groups, calculation of dynamic population flow and construction of a human mobility network, exposure and transmission risk assessment, and pandemic prevention guidelines. First, high-risk groups were extracted from mobile phone data based on multi-day activity chains. Second, daily human mobility networks were created by aggregating population and origin-destination (OD) flows. Third, clustering analysis, time series analysis, and network analysis were employed to evaluate pandemic risk. Finally, several solutions are proposed to control the pandemic. The outbreak period of COVID-19 in Shanghai was used to verify the proposed framework and methodology. The results show that the evaluation method is able to reflect the different spatiotemporal patterns of pandemic risk. The proposed framework and methodology may help prevent future public health emergencies and localized epidemics from evolving into global pandemics.

Coerced Human Mobility and Elite Social Networks in Early Dynastic Iraq and Iran

Abstract The article provides a historical analysis of cuneiform records concerning the circulation of unfree humans among the political-cultic elite in southern Mesopotamia and the Persian Gulf during the Early Dynastic IIIb period, ca. 2475–2300 BCE. The analysis of the written data from the Adab city-state demonstrates that the royal house used the unfree as gifts to maintain a sociopolitical network on three spatial levels – the internal, local, and (inter)regional. The gift-givers and gift-receivers were mostly male adult members of the local and foreign elite, whereas the dislocated unfree humans were heterogeneous in terms of age, gender, and the ways they lost their freedom. The author relates the social profiles of both groups to the logistics of human traffic to reveal the link between social status and forms and nature of spatial mobility in the politically and socially unstable Early Dynastic Near East.

Location-based social simulation for prescriptive analytics of disease spread

Human mobility and social networks have received considerable attention from researchers in recent years. What has been sorely missing is a comprehensive data set that not only addresses geometric movement patterns derived from trajectories, but also provides social networks and causal links as to why movement happens in the first place. To some extent, this challenge is addressed by studying location-based social networks (LBSNs). However, the scope of real-world LBSN data sets is constrained by privacy concerns, a lack of authoritative ground-truth, their sparsity, and small size. To overcome these issues we have infused a novel geographically explicit agent-based simulation framework to simulate human behavior and to create synthetic but realistic LBSN data based on human patterns-of-life (i.e., a geo-social simulation). Such data not only captures the location of users over time, but also their motivation, and interactions via temporal social networks. We have open sourced our framework and released a set of large data sets for the SIGSPATIAL community. In order to showcase the versatility of our simulation framework, we added disease a model that simulates an outbreak and allows us to test different policy measures such as implementing mandatory mask use and various social distancing measures. The produced data sets are massive and allow us to capture 100% of the (simulated) population over time without any data uncertainty, privacy-related concerns, or incompleteness. It allows researchers to see the (simulated) world through the lens of an omniscient entity having perfect data.