Housing Variables Research Articles

House Price Expectations, Labour Market Developments and the House Price to Rent Ratio: A User Cost of Capital Approach

The user cost of capital model is a popular tool for assessing the sustainability of house price movements. However, a number of issues typically arise when the approach is applied including the absence of information on consumer price expectations, differences in quality between owner-occupied and rented dwellings and whether agents expectations are rational. In this paper, using a new, unique database of regional housing variables we address these issues in assessing the sustainability of Irish house price changes between 2010 and 2018. We draw on a regular and timely survey of subjective house price expectations amongst Irish households to compile regional-specific user cost of capital variables. In examining the relationship between the user cost of capital and house price to rent ratios, we use developments in local labour markets to establish whether these expectations are determined by economic ``fundamentals” and, hence, not subject to a ``bubble”. Drawing on finance theory, we also present a series of indicators aimed at evaluating the sustainability of price movements.

Mapping the spatial pattern of the uncertain data in urban areas: The disadvantaged predict global nonresponse rate in the National Household Survey

High levels of survey nonresponse potentially produce unreliable data due to the often indeterminable possibility of such data being subject to nonresponse bias. In this paper, spatial patterns of global nonresponse rate are analyzed in order to identify whether systemic bias exists across urban spaces with regard to survey nonresponse. Forward stepwise regression is used in combination with spatial regression analysis to build models enabling the prediction of global nonresponse rates in the voluntary 2011 National Household Survey based on explanatory employment, housing, income, and other variables within 11 Canadian cities. The modelling process underscores the inequity of global nonresponse rates; places with high unemployment, high rates of rental properties, a higher proportion of Aboriginal residents, and lower educational attainment have lower compliance with the voluntary survey. Such a pattern has the potential to dramatically influence the ability of government, non‐governmental organizations, and other service providers to address the needs of residents of such urban areas.

The Role of the Federal Reserve in the U.S. Housing Crisis: A VAR Analysis with Endogenous Structural Breaks

This paper reexamines the role of the Federal Reserve in triggering the recent housing crisis. Specifically, we explore if the relationship between the federal funds rate and the housing variables underwent structural changes in the wake of the housing crisis. Using quarterly data spanning 1960–2017, we estimate a VAR model involving federal funds rate, real GDP growth and a housing variable (captured by house price inflation or residential investment share or housing starts) and conduct time series analysis for the pre- and post-crisis periods. While previous studies mostly set break-dates based on events known a priori to split the full sample to subsamples, we endogenously determine structural break points occurring at multiple unknown dates. Our Granger causality analysis indicates that the federal funds rate did not cause house price inflation, although it caused residential investment share and housing starts in the pre-crisis period. In the post-crisis period, the real GDP growth caused residential investment and housing starts while house price inflation had a momentum of its own. Our impulse response and forecast error variance decomposition analysis reinforce these results. Overall, our findings suggest that housing volume fluctuates more than house prices over the business cycle.

Time-varying impact of uncertainty shocks on the US housing market

This paper investigates the impact of uncertainty shocks on the housing market of the United States using the time-varying parameter factor augmented vector autoregression (TVP-FAVAR). We use a comprehensive quarterly time-series dataset on real economic activity, price, and financial variables, besides housing market variables, covering the period 1963:Q1 to 2014:Q3. In addition to housing prices, we also consider variables related to home sales, permits and starts. In general, the results of the cumulative response of housing variables to a one standard deviation positive uncertainty shock at the one-, four-, eight-, and twelve-quarter-horizon tends to change over time, both in terms of sign and magnitude, with the uncertainty shock primarily negatively affecting the housing variables, in particular prices, permits and starts, in longer-runs (i.e., two- and three-years-ahead horizons).

Exclusive Breastfeeding and Decrease of Upper respiratory Infection Incidence among Infants Aged 6-12 Months in Kampar District, Riau Province

Upper Respiratory Infection (URI) is a major cause of morbidity and mortality of infants and toddlers in developing countries. The high infant morbidity and mortality rates in Indonesia are associated with the low exclusive breastfeeding ability. Breast milk is a natural drink for newborns in the first month of life that is beneficial not only for the babies, but also for mothers. The aim of study was to determine exclusive breastfeeding and decrease in incidence of URI among infants aged 6-12 months. This study was conducted by using case control design. Samples were taken by using cluster random sampling. Subject of study consisted of 162 cases and 162 control with infants aged 6-12 years. Cases were 162 infants aged 6-12 months suffering from URI within one last month and taken by mothers to primary health care that was selected location of study, while control was mothers who took their infants aged 6-12 months who did not suffer from URI within one last month to the selected primary health care. Data analysis included univariate, bivariate, stratification, and multivariate analysis with logistic regression. Results of study found that infants who were not exclusively breastfed were 1.69 times (95% CI: 1.02-2.80) more at risk of increasing URI incidence compared to infants who were breastfed exclusively after controlled by smoker in house and immunization variables. Health promotion of 6-month exclusive breastfeeding, provision of immunization, and anti-smoking program need to be implemented continuously to decrease the rates of morbidity and mortality due to URI disease.

Revealing the structure of the associations between housing system, facilities, management and welfare of commercial laying hens using Additive Bayesian Networks

After the ban of battery cages in 1988, a welfare control programme for laying hens was developed in Sweden. Its goal was to monitor and ensure that animal welfare was not negatively affected by the new housing systems. The present observational study provides an overview of the current welfare status of commercial layer flocks in Sweden and explores the complexity of welfare aspects by investigating and interpreting the inter-relationships between housing system, production type (i.e. organic or conventional), facilities, management and animal welfare indicators. For this purpose, a machine learning procedure referred to as structure discovery was applied to data collected through the welfare programme during 2010–2014 in 397 flocks housed in 193 different farms. Seventeen variables were fitted to an Additive Bayesian Network model. The optimal model was identified by an exhaustive search of the data iterated across incremental parent limits, accounting for prior knowledge about causality, potential over-dispersion and clustering. The resulting Directed Acyclic Graph shows the inter-relationships among the variables. The animal-based welfare indicators included in this study – flock mortality, feather condition and mite infestation – were indirectly associated with each other. Of these, severe mite infestations were rare (4% of inspected flocks) and mortality was below the acceptable threshold (< 0.6%). Feather condition scored unsatisfactory in 21% of the inspected flocks; however, it seemed to be only associated to the age of the flock, ruling out any direct connection with managerial and housing variables. The environment-based welfare indicators – lighting and air quality – were an issue in 5 and 8% of the flocks, respectively, and showed a complex inter-relationship with several managerial and housing variables leaving room for several options for intervention. Additive Bayesian Network modelling outlined graphically the underlying process that generated the observed data. In contrast to ordinary regression, it aimed at accounting for conditional independency among variables, facilitating causal interpretation.

Unequal residential exposure to air pollution and noise: A geospatial environmental justice analysis for Ghent, Belgium.

Following the growing empirical evidence on the health effects of air pollution and noise, the fair distribution of these impacts receives increasing attention. The existing environmental inequality studies often focus on a single environmental impact, apply a limited range of covariates or do not correct for spatial autocorrelation. This article presents a geospatial data analysis on Ghent (Belgium), combining residential exposure to air pollution and noise with socioeconomic variables and housing variables. The global results show that neighborhoods with lower household incomes, more unemployment, more people of foreign origin, more rental houses, and higher residential mobility, are more exposed to air pollution, but not to noise. Multiple regression models to explain exposure to air pollution show that residential mobility and percentage of rental houses are the strongest predictors, stressing the role of the housing market in explaining which people are most at risk. Applying spatial regression models leads to better models but reduces the importance of all covariates, leaving income and residential mobility as the only significant predictors for air pollution exposure. While traditional multiple regression models were not significant for explaining noise exposure, spatial regression models were, and also indicate the significant contribution of income to the model. This means income is a robust predictor for both air pollution and noise exposure across the whole urban territory. The results provide a good starting point for discussions about environmental justice and the need for policy action. The study also underlines the importance of taking spatial autocorrelation into account when analyzing environmental inequality.

The Relationship between Extreme Heat and Cardiovascular Mortality: Assessing Effect Modification by Social Vulnerability Metrics

Heat-Mortality relationships show heterogeneity across populations; however, extant literature sheds little light on the factors, especially social determinants of health, responsible for this differential heterogeneity. Our objective was to assess the effect modification by social vulnerability metrics (SVMs) on the association between heat and mortality.A two-stage time-series analysis with distributed lag non-linear models was used to model the exposure-response (E-R) relationships between heat and mortality in 2,431 counties in the United States for years, 2001-2012. The risk estimates were pooled in a meta-regression framework to examine how SVMs modified the E-R relationships. A counterfactual health burden analysis was applied to quantify the extent of the effect modification by estimating fractions of deaths attributed to heat (AF) at various percentiles of each SVM. The SVMs used in this assessment ranged from commonly used sociodemographic variables to a composite community-specific Heat-Related Social Vulnerability Rating (HRSVR).The HRSVR and several SVMs, including socioeconomic status (e.g., % with no high school diploma), housing (e.g., % of households with no vehicles), and minority status (e.g., % of population with limited English speaking abilities) variables were significantly associated with an increase in heat-attributed mortality. Across all climate regions, the increase in AF of deaths for an interquartile increase in HRSVR levels was 0.59% (95%CI: 0.55%&amp;#8211;0.63%).Health burden is likely to increase with increasing social vulnerability levels and the extent of effect modification varies with SVMs. The results from this assessment could potentially be used to identify at-risk areas based on their levels of social vulnerability and design community-specific heat intervention plans to help prepare for extreme heat emergencies.

The Urban Sustainability Index in Urban Aglomeration

The regional autonomy positively impacts regional development in terms of competitiveness. Each area tries to have advantage from other areas. One of the parameters of city competitiveness is the concept of sustainable cities. This study aims to identify cities based on sustainable urban development indices in six urban agglomeration area of Semarang: Semarang city, Semarang regency, Kendal regency, Grobogan regency, Demak regency and Salatiga city. Methods of data collection with questionnaires, interviews and documentation. Respondents in this study were the general public, policy makers, and academics. The results showed, based on the sustainable urban development index of the Sustainable Urban Development Indonesia Forum, six districts in urban agglomeration area of Semarang are categorized as less sustainable in 2016. The regencies in the urban agglomeration areas of Semarang indicate the index result of 103,00 - 127,83. The average contribution of the urban leadership, the urban governance, the urbanization and population, the housing and settlements variables are high, while the disaster risk and the climate change, the waterfront areas, the mass transportation, the local economy and informal sector, the preservation of cultural Heritage, the natural heritage and the local Wisdom, the green Open Spaces, the emissions and energy variable are still low.

An Epidemiological Study to Find out Risk Factors of Multi Drugs Resistance Tuberculosis in Nepal

Introduction: Drug resistant tuberculosis is a threat to tuberculosis control worldwide. Previous anti- tuberculosis treatment is a widely reported risk factor for multi drug resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB), whereas other risk factors are less well described. In Nepal National Tuberculosis Control Programme initiated DOTSPLUS Pilot project from September 2005 using standardized treatment regimen.Objective: To explore the risk factors for MDR-TB in Nepal.Methodology: Institution based matched case control study with a case: control ratio of 1:2 was carried out in three regions of Nepal. Fifty five cases and 110 controls were selected. Current MDR-TB patients on treatment from DOTS–Plus clinic were enrolled as cases. Controls were age, sex matched cured TB patients and who had completed treatment either from the same centre or any DOTS Centre adjacent to that DOTS Plus Centre. Data was collected by a trained research assistant using interviewer administered structured questionnaire. Matched analysis was done using SPSS 16 version. Confounding effects were controlled by using matching, matched analysis and regression analysis.Results: In matched analysis following were the significant risk factors for MDR-TB in Nepal.(1) HIV Sero positivity (OR 15.9, CI 1.9- 133.0) (2) Travel cost more than 50 NRs per day (OR 6.5, CI 2.4- 9.8) (3) Contact history of TB (OR 3.8, CI 2.2- 6.6) (4) Living in a nuclear family (OR 6.0, CI 2.6- 13.9)(5) Non adherence to DOTS (OR 18.6, CI 2.27- 151.0) (6) Distance to treatment centre more than 5 Km ( OR 3.9, CI 1.5- 10.) (7) Previous history of TB ( OR 12.0, CI 5.4 -26.5)(8) Living in a rural area (OR 4, CI 2.1- 8.5) (9) Unmarried (Crude OR 3.3,CI 1.6- 6.8) (10) Un-employment (OR 3.4,CI 1.6-7.6)(11) Living in a rented house (OR 3.5, CI 1.77- 3.67) (12) Single bed room (OR 2.8, CI 1.13- 6.9). Using muti-variate analysis except living in a rented house and single bed room other variables were positive significant predictors for MDR –TB in Nepal.Conclusions: Many risk factors were related to the DOTS. Strengthening of DOTS programme to tackle the identified risk factors can reduce the MDR –TB burden in Nepal.SAARC Journal of Tuberculosis, Lung Diseases and HIV/AIDS, Vol. 14, No. 2, 2017, Page: 31-38

Credit-related Shocks in VAR Models: The Case of Lithuania

This article provides empirical evidence on the role played by credit-related shocks over the business cycle in Lithuania. To this end, we estimate a vector auto regression (VAR) with credit and housing variables and identify credit-related shocks. Using sign restriction, we identify credit supply shocks; while using zero restrictions, we identify credit spread shocks. We find evidence that credit-related shocks have a significant effect on housing and credit market variables, while the effect on GDP is less pronounced but still significant. While credit supply shocks weighed down on economic growth during the period from 2008 to 2014, the effect turned positive in 2014.

댈러스-포트워스-알링턴 메트로폴리탄지역에서 백인의 이동과 유색인동의 성장이 주택의 변수에 영향에 관한 연구

댈러스-포트워스-알링턴 메트로폴리탄지역에서 백인의 이동과 유색인동의 성장이 주택의 변수에 영향에 관한 연구

Herd-level prevalence of the ultrasonographic lung lesions associated with bovine respiratory disease and related environmental risk factors

Bovine respiratory disease complex (BRD) is a major calf disease during the preweaning period. Thoracic ultrasound (TUS) has been recently described as a reliable tool for assessing BRD-associated lung lesions. The objectives of this study were to define the herd-level prevalence of lung consolidation assessed by TUS (CONSTUS). A total of 39 Québec dairy herds were randomly chosen to participate in this cross-sectional study. Between 6 and 12 preweaned calves were examined for signs of CONSTUS defined by any site with ≥3 cm consolidated lung tissue during 1 visit in summer and 1 visit in winter. Herd questionnaire focused on calf health and housing data [airborne bacteria (aerobic, coliform, yeasts and mold counts), air drafts, temperature, hygrometry, and ammonia levels] were also collected during these visits looking for potential association with CONSTUS prevalence. The median herd-level of CONSTUS prevalence (interquartile range) were 8% (0-22%) in summer and 15% (0-35%) in winter. Multivariable analyses showed that season was associated with an increased CONSTUS prevalence [10.0 vs. 19.3%; odds ratio (OR) = 2.16], as well as group housing during preweaned period (9.6 vs. 20.0%; OR = 2.37) and perceived BRD problem by the farmer (10.6 vs. 18.3%; OR = 1.89). Despite tremendous changes in calves' environment between winter and summer, none of the housing variables were associated with the CONSTUS prevalence in this study. Based on the observed CONSTUS prevalence ranges in the present study (herds in the lower prevalence quartile), an achievable goal of none of 12 calves with consolidation ≥3 cm can potentially be used to define a low-BRD risk herd.

The Residential Mobility of Seniors Among Different Residential Forms: Analysis of Metropolitan and Rural Issues for Six Contrasted Regions in Québec, Canada

ABSTRACTThe purpose of this research is to describe and analyze the residential mobility of senior citizens, between 2006 and 2011, among different residential forms in rural and metropolitan areas in the province of Quebec (Canada). A systematic analysis of residential form variability in territories that include both metropolitan and rural areas is performed. First, a typology of residential forms is proposed using a principal component analysis and a hierarchical cluster analysis on environment-related and housing variables. Second, the residential mobility of seniors among these different residential forms is analyzed. The results reveal a certain amount of residential stability among seniors, except where specific conditions are met, such as the death of a spouse or the onset of health problems limiting day-to-day activities. For those who moved, high-rise habitat areas and mixed areas with older rental apartments held the greatest attraction. However, suburban areas attracted the largest number of seniors because these areas account for a sizeable portion of the real estate market.

The Effect of the Change of Racial Residential Segregation on Housing Variables between 2000 and 2010 in Dallas-Arlington-Ft. Worth Metropolitan Area in Texas

The Effect of the Change of Racial Residential Segregation on Housing Variables between 2000 and 2010 in Dallas-Arlington-Ft. Worth Metropolitan Area in Texas

The impact of state fire safe cigarette policies on fire fatalities, injuries, and incidents.

Cigarettes are a leading cause of civilian deaths in home fires. Over the last decade, state fire service leaders and allied interest groups succeeded in persuading state lawmakers to require manufacturers to sell only low-ignition strength or "fire safe" cigarettes as a strategy to reduce these fatalities and the injuries and losses that stem from them. This article examines whether the states' fire safe cigarette laws actually helped to save lives, prevent injuries, and reduce the incidence of home fires ignited by cigarettes left unattended by smokers. Controlling for the effects of key demographic, social, economic, and housing variables, this study finds that the states' fire-safe cigarette policies had significant impacts on reducing the rate of smoking-related civilian fire deaths and the incidence of fires started by tobacco products. The findings also suggest that the states' fire safe cigarette policies may have helped to reduce the rate of smoking-related fire injuries. The study shows that collective actions by leaders in the fire service across the states can result in meaningful policy change that protects lives and advances public safety even when a political consensus for action is absent at the national level.

Health and welfare profile of Australian baby boomers who live in rented accommodation – implications for the future

ABSTRACTBaby boomers who rent are often overlooked as an important sub-group. We aimed to assess the chronic conditions, risk factors, socio-economic factors and other health-related factors associated with renting in private or public housing. Data from telephone interviews conducted each month in South Australia between 2010 and 2015 were combined. Prevalence estimates were assessed for each risk factor and chronic condition by housing status. The association between housing status and variables of interest were analysed using logistic regression models adjusting for multiple covariates (age, gender, income, smoking, physical activity, area and year of data collection). Overall, 17.4 per cent of the 16,687 baby boomers interviewed were renting, either privately or using government-subsided housing. The health profile of renters (both private and public) was poorer overall, with renters more likely to have all of the chronic conditions and ten risk factors assessed. For public renters the relationships were maintained even after controlling for socio-economic and risk factor variables for all chronic diseases except osteoporosis. This research has provided empirical evidence of the considerable differences in health, socio-economic indicators and risk factors between baby boomers who rent and those who own, or are buying, their own homes.

Soil transmitted Helminthiasis and associated risk factors among elementary school children in ambo town, western Ethiopia

BackgroundSoil-transmitted helminths (STHs) are widespread in underdeveloped countries. In Ethiopia, the prevalence and distribution of helminth infection varies by different exposing risk factors. We therefore investigated the prevalence of and risk factors of STHs infection in school children living in Ambo town, west Shoa Ethiopia.MethodsIn 2014/15, among 375 school children planed to be included in this study, only 321 school children were recruited in the study. Data onto school children from different schools were collected, including stool samples for qualitative STHs analysis. Questionnaire data on various demographic, housing and lifestyle variables were also available.ResultsPrevalence of any STHs infection was 12.6%. The respective prevalence of major soil-transmitted helminths is Ascaris (7.8%), Hookworm (2.8%) and Trichuris (2.2%). This study result shows STHs prevalence varies regards to age, sex, latrine use, family size and nail trimming.ConclusionThe results of the present study indicated that the percentage of positive finding for STHs in Ambo area is low. Besides, Large Family size, not nail trimming and unavailability of improved latrine were identified as predisposing factor for STHs infections. All school children enrolled and not enrolled in this study should be treated twice a year until the prevalence falls below the level of public health importance.

Interprefectural Migration Patterns of Young Adults in Japan : An Explanation Using a Nested Logit Model

The authors use a nested logit model to explain departure and destination choice patterns among prefectures for adults aged 15-39 living in Japan during the period 1979-1980. Our major findings are as follows. First besides being subject to the strong negative effect of physical distance the destination choice propensities are strongly enhanced by contiguity and linguistic similarity. Second housing variables are less important than other types of variables....Third within the Tokyo and Osaka metropolitan areas the attractiveness of suburban prefectures is significantly enhanced by the high level of commuting....Furthermore...both destination choice and departure processes are strongly affected by government redistribution policy through the unequal grants to local governments. (EXCERPT)

노인과 잠재적 노인의 삶의 만족도에 대한 특성분석

삶의 만족도는 노인들의 복지정책수립의 가장 중요한 요소 중 하나이다. 이 연구의 목적은 적절한 복지정책의 수립을 위해 노인(세계2차대전후의 베이비 부머)과 잠재적 노인들 (한국전쟁후의 베이비 부머)의 삶의 만족도를 분석하는 것이다. 본 연구는 국민노후보장채널자료가 순서화 된 카테고리 데이터이기 때문에 순서화된 로짓모델을 활용하였다. 분석결과 건강, 경제, 주택변수가 연령집단에 관계없이 가장 기본적인 변수인 것으로 나타났다. 따라서 한국정부는 변수의 중요도에 따라, 건강문제, 경제문제, 주택문제 등의 해결에 정책의 우선순위를 두어야 하는 것으로 판명되었다. 특히 연금문제는 노인들의 경제적 문제를 해결하는 핵심변수인 것으로 조사되었다.