Housing Mortgage Research Articles

ASSESSMENT OF REGIONAL MORTGAGE INEQUALITY: COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF METHODS AND RESULTS

The article focuses on the study of the problems of assessing regional mortgage inequality in the Russian Federation. Based on an analysis of the experience of Russian and foreign economists and regionalists in the field of spatial inequality, possible approaches to assessing the disproportions in the regional mortgage market development are investigated. Calculations were carried out using the differentiation coefficient for extreme values of regions, fund coefficient for extreme groups of regions, log-normal distribution according to the 90/10 method, variation coefficient, Lorentz concentration coefficient and Gini index, Theil coefficient, as well as a differential indicator (author's development) of the development level of the housing mortgage lending system (HML) in the region and some other indicators. An economic interpretation of the calculation results is given. The significant variability of the various methods of estimation results is shown. On the basis of a comparative analysis of the approaches and their results, a substantiated method for assessing regional mortgage inequality was carried out. Statistical methods, including multivariate analysis, as well as expert assessment, were used as the methodological base of scientific research. The theoretical and practical significance of the study lies in substantiating the expediency of using the differential indicator proposed by the authors, characterizing the development level of the HML system in specific regions, to solve the problems of assessing the mortgage inequality of Russian subjects.

English

This study analyzes whether the 7p marketing mix variable (product, price, location, promotion, physical evidence, people, and Process) on buyer satisfaction and buyer value. This study also aims to determine whether the variable buyer value can mediate between the marketing mix and buyer satisfaction. The data source used is primary data by distributing questionnaires to subsidized housing mortgage buyers. This study uses the Standard Equation Model (SEM). Estimation results show that the marketing mix variable and buyer value positively and significantly affect buyer satisfaction. And the variable buyer value can mediate the marketing mix and buyer satisfaction variables. With probability = 0,000 (p <0.05) marketing mix to buyer satisfaction obtained CR = 3.973, and CR = 7.791 to the value of the buyer

AKIBAT HUKUM PERJANJIAN JUAL BELI RUMAH MELALUI KREDIT PEMILIKAN RUMAH SECARA OVER CREDIT DI BAWAH TANGAN

This research aims to examine the transfer of housing Mortgages (KPR) by transferring loans (over credit). This problem is caused by the lack of public knowledge about existing legal regulations related to buying and selling KPR by Over Credit. The research method used is a normative legal research method with a statutory approach and conceptual approach. The results of this research show that the process of over credit under the hand can be detrimental to third parties or substitute debtors. The loss was caused by the KPR organizer bank refusing to submit the KPR house certificate and the substitute debtor could not carry out the process of changing ownership of the land certificate for the KPR house he bought because the certificate was still registered in the name of the first party. Therefore, the settlement for the loss can be made by filing a lawsuit through the District Court with a verdict that has permanent legal force regarding the validity of the sale and purchase of mortgages under the hand and the third party is given the authority and power to use as appropriate.

Application of methods of neural networks in the analysis of the market of mortgage housing loan

Application of methods of neural networks in the analysis of the market of mortgage housing loan

The Housing Market in Russia’s Cities in 2019

In 2019, the macroeconomic indicators directly affecting the housing market were the following. The consumer price index stood at 3 percent, households’ income movement which is important for the housing market in the course of the major part of the year (after a plunge in Q1) posted positive. Over 2019 as a whole, the real disposable cash income of the population gained less than 1percent. The RF Central Bank repeatedly reduced its key rate over the course of last year hitting 6.25 percent in December 2019. Nevertheless, borrowers’ activity and the amount of housing mortgage lending (HML) was below that seen last year. According to the Bank of Russia, in 2019 Russia saw a total of 1.27 million extended mortgages to the tune of RUB 2.85 trillion against 1.47 million totaling RUB 3.01 trillion in 2018, in other words the decline came to 13.6 percent in loans-terms and 5.3 percent in volume-terms. The share of mortgage loans originated for shared-equity construction in the total volume of extended loans of all types constituted in 2019 6.6 percent against 7 percent in 2018. That said, the share of mortgages issued for shared-equity construction in the aggregate volume of solely mortgage loans went up from 28.8 to 32.4 percent.

RURAL HOUSING CHALLENGES IN THE UPPER WEST REGION OF GHANA: A CASE STUDY OF KULMASA

Housing is one of the most basic needs of human beings but many people find it difficult to afford. This is why there are many housing shortages in most parts of the world especially in developing countries. There seems to be paucity of studies on rural housing challenges in Ghana in general and Kulmasa community in the Upper West Region of Ghana in particular. This research seeks to bridge this knowledge gap by assessing rural housing challenges in the Upper West Region of Ghana using Kulmasa as a case study area in order to come out with interventions to address these housing challenges. Study methods include the use of questionnaire, interview guides and observation checklist for data analysis. A total of 66 respondents (both male and female) who took part in this study were purposively selected. The results indicated that the existing housing conditions in Kulmasa community in the Wa Municipality of the Upper West Region of Ghana are in substandard state. The study found out that cultural reasons, proximity to place of work, environmental friendliness of the area, accessibility and affordability of the land and availability of better infrastructure are factors influencing housing development in Kulmasa community of the Upper West Region of Ghana. The study found out that lack of access to secure land, limited access to finance, high cost of land registration, slow bureaucratic procedures, lack of infrastructure in rural areas, development controls, uncoordinated policies and implementations, high cost of construction and high price of land are some of the challenges of the existing housing conditions in Kulmasa community of the Upper West Region of Ghana. It is recommended that the government of Ghana should provide enabling environment for private sector to provide safe, adequate and affordable housing for people in rural communities in the Wa Municipality of the Upper West Region of Ghana. Again, the study recommends that the government of Ghana should liaise with banks and set up social housing mortgage scheme for the people of Kulmasa community. This entails interested banks pooling reasonable sum of money together for lending to the people of Kulmasa community at a negotiated but reduced interest rate of say 5% or less. Keywords: Rural, Housing, Challenges, Kulmasa Community, Wa Municipality, Upper WestRegion, Ghana.

On the Factors of Housing Mortgage Lending Dynamics in Russia and Some of its Regions

Housing lending is one of the fastest growing and most promising segments of Bank lending in the country. The article analyzes the main factors of housing mortgage lending dynamics in Russia and some of its regions: subjects of the Russian Federation of the Volga Federal district. The latest features of the relevant regional mortgage markets, including those reflecting the reality of the beginning of this year, are revealed. In the near future, the author substantiates the forecast conclusions, according to which: a) if the overall positive dynamics of the all-Russian and regional mortgage markets is maintained, their growth will slow down; b) if the monetary authorities implement an effective anti-crisis policy, including providing effective support to these markets, their degree of competitiveness and consolidation will increase.

From wheel of fortune to wheel of misfortune: Financial crises, cycles, and consumer predation

AbstractPredator–prey dynamics are widely used in ecology but seldom utilized in economics and marketing, despite their ability to express financial market agents' behaviors when considered in combination with economic cycles and financial crises. This multidisciplinary article presents a stylized framework of a market cycle that combines the notions of supply and demand and predator–prey interactions between buyers and sellers of housing mortgages. We illustrate our framework using data from the Global Financial Crisis and a Lotka‐Volterra predator–prey model. We find that with our framework we can capture the dynamics of the market, particularly the peak and decline in the number of sellers and sold subprime mortgages. Our framework sheds a new light on consumer behaviors, pinpointing how they can put themselves into vulnerable prey positions. This article is one of the first of its kind to propose market phases and predator–prey dynamics nested in economic cycles and consumer buying trends.

Evaluating the effectiveness of the housing mortgage lending market in the Ural federal district

Evaluating the effectiveness of the housing mortgage lending market in the Ural federal district

A Consumer Behavior and Lifestyle with the Interest of Buying As Mediation in Determining Home Purchase with Subsidy Credit in Jember

The need for houses is almost never decreasing, this opportunity is exploited by developers to realize government programs related to meeting the needs of subsidized housing mortgages. Developers must be able to know how consumer tastes are changing every day in line with current trends, and it is a challenge for developers to be able to predict future demand. This understanding needs further investigation to find out how consumers consider everything before finally making a decision to buy. The purpose of this study was to analyze and determine the effect of consumer behavior and lifestyle on the interests and decisions of the purchase of subsidized KPR housing in Jember Regency. The sample in this study consumers from 10 developers in Jember were 150 respondents. The results of the analysis show that consumer behavior influences consumer buying interest in the purchase of subsidized housing mortgages, lifestyle influences consumer buying interest in home mortgages, consumer behavior influences consumer purchasing decisions in buying subsidized housing mortgages in Jember, lifestyle has a significant effect on purchasing decisions in buying subsidized housing mortgages in Jember, buying interest influences purchasing decisions in determining the purchase of subsidized housing mortgages in Jember, and based on the results of testing the direct and indirect influence of consumer behavior and lifestyle on purchasing decisions through interest, the results show that the direct influence of consumer behavior and the lifestyle of buying interest and purchasing decisions has a greater influence than indirect influence.&#x0D; &#x0D; Keywords: consumer behavior, lifestyle, buying interest and purchasing decisions.

Decision Support System Recommendations of Half and Full Subsidized KPR Houses

The house is a primary need for humans because as a place to stay and carry on life. Having a house is certainly not an easy matter because it requires a very large cost for it. This large amount of capital has made the community take a short and practical path by choosing half or full subsidized housing loans. Only with a capital of 20 million housing mortgages can be placed. However, the case of the house also considers the size, area, model, size of the remaining land, and location to be crucial in the selection. At present the types of KPR houses consist of types 36, 45, and 54. All three types have subsidies from the government so that they are affordable by many communities. However, from the results of field observations many people felt that it was not appropriate to choose the type of house. Let's say someone wants a type 45 house but ends up choosing type 36 with an estimated objection to paying monthly installments, even though they are capable. And vice versa who take type 45 then object to paying the monthly installments. Based on these problems, the authors try to help the community through the bank with the application of a decision support system (SPK). With this system, people who have filled out the registration form on the system will get a recommendation for the type of house. This system was built using the simple addative weight (SAW) method.Keywords: House, KPR, Type, SPK, SAW.

Статистический анализ факторов ипотечного жилищного кредитования на Дальнем Востоке

В статье проанализированы показатели динамики ипотечного жилищного кредитования на Дальнем Востоке за период 2006-2017 гг. Для построения модели были выявлены факторные признаки, влияющие на объемы ипотечного кредитования, и раскрыта сущность их взаимосвязи с объемами кредитования. Для обоснования включения/не включения факторных признаков в модель множественной регрессии была выполнена проверка факторов на наличие/отсутствие мульколлинеарности, по результатам которой в модель были включены фактор численности населения ДВФО и фактор доли аварийного жилья. Построена линейная модель множественной регрессии и проведена оценка существенности взаимосвязи между признаками на основе F-критерия Фишера, оценка статистической значимости коэффициентов множественной регрессии на основе t-критерия Стьюдента, а также выполнен расчет средней ошибки аппроксимации. Был рассчитан прогноз объемов ипотечного кредитования двумя способами. Построена линейная модель основной тенденции динамики показателей ипотечного кредитования, на основе которой был рассчитан вероятный прогноз объема ипотечных кредитов на Дальнем Востоке на период 2018-2020 гг. с использованием метода экстраполяции. Используя метод аналитического выравнивания, были построены модели основной тенденции показателей среднедушевых доходов населения, численности населения, показателя удельного веса аварийного жилищного фонда ДВФО. Данные модели были использованы для определения доверительных интервалов значений изучаемых показателей на период до 2020 г. по модели множественной регрессии. Опираясь на положительные результаты оценки статистической значимости построенной модели множественной регрессии, прогноз был уточнен с учетом доверительных интервалов показателей прогноза численности населения, среднедушевых доходов и доли аварийного жилья в ДВФО. he article analyzes the trends in mortgage housing lending in the Russian Far East in the period 2006-2017. To build a model, factor signs were identified that affected the volume of mortgage lending and the essence of their relationship with lending volumes was revealed. To justify the inclusion / non-inclusion of the factor signs in the multiple regression model, a check of factors for the presence / absence of multicollinearity was carried out, according to which the factor of the Far Eastern Federal District (FEFD) population and the share of emergency housing were included in the model. A linear model of multiple regression was constructed and the significance of the relationship between the attributes based on the Fisher F-test was assessed, statistics on the significance of the multiple regression coefficients based on the Student t-test were estimated, and the average approximation error was calculated. The forecast of the volumes of mortgage lending was calculated in two ways. A linear model of the main trend in the dynamics of mortgage lending indicators was built, based on which a probable forecast of the volume of mortgage loans in the Far East for the period 2018-2020 was calculated. using the extrapolation method. Using the method of analytical equalization, models of the main tendency of indicators of average per capita incomes of the population, population, indicator of the proportion of emergency housing stock of the FEFD were built. These models were used to determine confidence intervals of the values of the studied indicators for the period up to 2020. according to the multiple regression model. Based on the positive results of assessing the statistical significance of the constructed model of multiple regression, the forecast was refined taking into account the confidence intervals of the forecast indicators for the population, average per capita income and the share of emergency housing in the Far Eastern Federal District.

Estimating the Leverage Condition of China’s Urban Households: Evidence from the Housing Sector

The large and increasing debt in China has attracted global concern, but there is currently little quantitative information available on the leverage condition of China’s housing sector. In this study, we suggest the current loan-to-value (LTV) ratio of housing as the key indicator of households’ leverage condition and develop a method to estimate the city-level ratio wholly based on macro-level statistics. The results from 40 major cities suggest that, on average, the current LTV ratio was 57.3% at the end of 2017 in the most vulnerable scenario, and only 18.4% if we adopt the actual scenario. This finding suggests that in general, the leverage of China’s urban household sector is still in the relatively safe range. However, a few cities, such as Wenzhou, witnessed a high current LTV ratio of over 100% due to a housing market crash. Based on manually collected city-level delinquency data, we also provide empirical evidence that our current LTV indicator can at least partially explain the change in housing mortgage loan delinquency rates and can thus serve as an important indicator of systemic financial risks associated with the household sector.

A Study on the Effect of Housing Financial Regulation Policy on Apartment Housing Prices

정부는 가계부채 문제해결과 더불어 주택가격안정을 목적으로 다양한 주택금융규제로 주택시장에 개입하고 있으나, 주택금융규제의 정책효과는 가계부채증가 억제나 주택가격안정과 같은 정책 목표를 달성하지 못하는 경우가 많다. 본 연구는 주택금융규제와 주택담보대출의 관계, 그리고 주택담보대출과 주택가격의 관계의 분석에 목적을 두었다. 즉, 주택금융규제 수단인 LTV, DTI, DSR의 주택담보대출 조절 효과를 개입ARIMA모형으로 분석하고, 주택담보대출이 주택가격에 미치는 영향을 VEC모형으로 분석함으로써, 규제정책의 유효성을 평가해보고, 가계부채 억제와 주택가격 안정화에 효과적인 주택금융규제 정책에 대한 시사점을 제시하고자 하였다. 분석 결과, 주택금융규제 수단인 LTV, DTI, DSR 규제가 동시에 강화의 방향으로 사용되었을 때에만 개입 효과가 발생하였으며, 주요거시경제변수 중 공동주택가격에 미치는 영향은 소비자물가지수(CPI), 종합주가지수(KOSPI), 광의통화량(M2) 순이었고, 주택담보대출의 설명력은 기간이 경과 할수록 설명력이 증가하였으나 상대적으로 매우 낮은 수준이었다. 그러므로 단기적인 주택가격 조정 목적으로서 주택금융규제 정책의 한계는 명확히 인식되어야 하며, 주택가격을 안정시키거나 부양하기 위한 수단으로 주택금융규제를 이용하는데에는 신중을 기해야 한다.1. CONTENTS (1) RESEARCH OBJECTIVES This study aims to provide a direction on the policy measures based on the result of empirical analysis on effectiveness of housing financial regulation policy to suppress mortgage loan and relation between mortgage loan and housing price. (2) RESEARCH METHOD ARIMA-Intervention analysis and VEC model analysis. (3) RESEARCH FINDINGS The intervention effect only occurred when the LTV, DTI, and DSR regulations, which are the means of housing finance regulation, were used simultaneously in the direction of strengthening. Among the major macroeconomic variables, the variables influencing the price of housing were the consumer price index(CPI), the composite stock price index(KOSPI), and the monetary volume(M2) in order, while the amount of housing mortgage loans’ explanatory power increased over the period, but it is relatively very low. 2. RESULTS Therefore, for the purpose of adjusting housing prices in the short term, the limitations of the housing finance regulation policy should be clearly recognized, and caution should be exercised in using it as a means to control housing prices.

An agent-based model for the assessment of LTV caps

We assess the effects of regulatory caps in the loan-to-value (LTV) ratio for housing mortgages using an agent-based model. Sellers, buyers and banks interact within a computational framework that enables the application of LTV caps to a one-step housing market. We first conduct a simulation exercise; later, we calibrate the probability distributions based on actual European data from the Household Finance and Consumption Survey. In both cases, the application of an LTV cap results in a modified distribution of buyers in terms of property values, bidding prices and properties sold, depending on the probability distributions of the LTV ratio, wealth and debt-to-income ratios considered. The results are of similar magnitude to other studies in the literature embodying other analytical approaches, and they suggest that our methodology can potentially be used to gauge the impact of common macroprudential measures.

Who's Moving In? A Longitudinal Analysis of Home Purchase Loan Borrowers in New Transit Neighborhoods

This article examines the characteristics of residents moving into new rail transit neighborhoods using longitudinal, individual‐level data from the Housing Mortgage Disclosure Act. To disentangle the role of transit from other neighborhood amenities that may give rise to shifts in the socioeconomic or demographic profile of homebuyers, an exploratory text analysis is first performed on property advertisements in transit‐adjacent neighborhoods. This informs the creation of variables for our models that estimate the probability of an applicant applying for a loan by race and income, and highlights where light rail is most prominently advertised as an amenity. We do not find that the announcement of a new light rail line significantly alters the income profile of loan applicants. Rather, proximity to the center city is a more important determinant in attracting higher income applicants. We do find that the announcement of the transit line is significant in explaining changes in the racial profile of applicants. Postannouncement, White applicants are significantly more likely to apply for loans in transit‐adjacent neighborhoods, while Blacks are significantly less likely to. As for other amenities, the walkability of a neighborhood is significant in predicting where White applicants are more likely to apply for home purchase loans.

THE CURRENT TRENDS AND FACTORS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORTGAGE HOUSING LENDING IN RUSSIA

The presented work contributes to the development of the studies evaluating the key determinants of mortgage housing lending development in Russia. Despite a relatively well-developed body of research in the field of mortgage housing lending, devoted to revealing the essence, functional purpose, and implementation mechanism, the works, aimed at identifying the factors influencing its development in the current economic environment in Russia, are under-represented in the Russian scientific field. This study aims to assess the dynamics of mortgage housing lending in the contemporary economic conditions and to identify the determinants of its defining. The research methodology is based on the use of statistical dynamic analysis and correlation-regression analysis. The work is based on the application of methods of statistical dynamic analysis and correlation-regression analysis. Assessment of the dynamics has shown the general trend towards an increase in the volume of mortgage housing loans. However, some periods have been noted to have a negative dynamic primary related to the negative external environment and stagnation of the economy, due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Additionally, this article presents the assessment of the qualitative indicators characterizing the level of penetration and the degree of aggressiveness of lending institutions’ policies on housing mortgage lending. The authors have built a panel data model that has allowed identifying the key determinants of the development of residential mortgage lending in Russia. The results have revealed that the state of the mortgage lending sector in Russia is influenced by such factors, as the commissioning of residential buildings, the cost in the primary real estate market, weighted average interest rates, and the unemployment rate.

Transparency as a Product of Processes of Power and Liquid Modernity: A Conceptual Paper

High-profile revelations of organizational malpractices in the last few years such as unethical business deals based on large-scale conflicts of interest, insider trading, overvaluation of housing mortgages, doctored inventories of inadequate capital holdings to raise finances, and manipulation of facts and figures have made transparency an important value in today’s organizational world. Stakeholders, whether internal or external, expect to have access to information and organizations have little choice but to open up in keeping with current trends (Christensen, 2002; Christensen & Langer, 2009). This paper offers a tentative examination of what we believe to be an original conceptual framework for a critical understanding of processes of and motivations for organizational transparency, including its paradoxes, by drawing on and combining theories of power, hegemony, legitimacy, and liquid modernity.

Parental “love” on time: strength and timing in homeownership transfer

With substantial parental support, China’s 1980–1996 birth cohorts, termed “the millennials” in this paper, have achieved an extremely high homeownership rate. This study is an attempt to explain the strength and timing of intergenerational transfer of housing-related wealth in China. The 2011–2013 China Household Finance Survey shows three dominant types of housing-related wealth transfer with increasing strengths overtime: no substantial help from parents, partial help from parents to cover down payment for housing mortgage, and full help from parents in the form of homeownership transfer. Chinese parents are found to be impurely altruistic, son-preference oriented, and risk-avoiding in their decisions of transferring wealth to married children. Consequently, wealth transfers tend to benefit the less accomplished sons who have better parent–child relationships, fewer siblings, lower-risk marriages, and stronger commitment to repaying aging parents. Emotional altruism, relational ethnics, and rational calculations are the underlying logics that govern intergenerational relations in the Chinese family.

Обоснование инструментария оценки регионального ипотечного кредитования

In this article, for the growth of mortgage lending in Russia, a complex coefficient for the development level of mortgage lending was created — the Regional housing affordability ratio. The article considers the regulatory framework of the domestic mortgage, to identify marks-indicators of the mortgage state for targeted programs. The key indicator was identified — the housing affordability ratio used in the Mortgage Development Strategy until 2020, and the absence of a similar indicator in the new priority project Mortgage and Rental Housing was noted. The author studies the advantages and non-delivery of housing affordability factor with the account of the modern scientific base. Based on the adjusted housing affordability coefficient proposed by A. Kulikov and V. Yaninin, a regional housing affordability index was developed together with a methodology for calculating it based on the available statistical data. The possibilities of purchasing housing on credit by the population in different regions were determined, and the possibility of using the coefficient for grouping regions using cluster analysis to identify the uneven development of mortgages in Russia was presented. The proposed coefficient can be used as a mortgage status indicator in the regions, used to create differentiated econometric models of mortgage lending and the development of a mortgage policy that takes into account the peculiarities of Russian regions.