THE CURRENT TRENDS AND FACTORS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORTGAGE HOUSING LENDING IN RUSSIA

Abstract

The presented work contributes to the development of the studies evaluating the key determinants of mortgage housing lending development in Russia. Despite a relatively well-developed body of research in the field of mortgage housing lending, devoted to revealing the essence, functional purpose, and implementation mechanism, the works, aimed at identifying the factors influencing its development in the current economic environment in Russia, are under-represented in the Russian scientific field. This study aims to assess the dynamics of mortgage housing lending in the contemporary economic conditions and to identify the determinants of its defining. The research methodology is based on the use of statistical dynamic analysis and correlation-regression analysis. The work is based on the application of methods of statistical dynamic analysis and correlation-regression analysis. Assessment of the dynamics has shown the general trend towards an increase in the volume of mortgage housing loans. However, some periods have been noted to have a negative dynamic primary related to the negative external environment and stagnation of the economy, due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Additionally, this article presents the assessment of the qualitative indicators characterizing the level of penetration and the degree of aggressiveness of lending institutions’ policies on housing mortgage lending. The authors have built a panel data model that has allowed identifying the key determinants of the development of residential mortgage lending in Russia. The results have revealed that the state of the mortgage lending sector in Russia is influenced by such factors, as the commissioning of residential buildings, the cost in the primary real estate market, weighted average interest rates, and the unemployment rate.