Statistical Study of Current Trends in Mortgage Lending in Russia

Svetlana G Babich,Elnur T Mekhdiev,Mikhail V Karmanov,Elizaveta S Sokolova,Natalya N Toropova

doi:10.13189/ujaf.2021.090204

Abstract

Mortgage lending is one of the most important and most socially significant sectors of the national economy. Today, mortgage in Russia is rather underdeveloped and has a significant impact only on the economy of large cities. The development of mortgage in the Russian regions is hampered by the non-diversified approach to this issue. The article presents the results of analysis of housing mortgage loans dynamics in Russia. The number and volume of mortgage loans issued to individuals were assessed by regional structure. The Russian federal entities were grouped by the main indicators that affect the housing mortgage market. This allowed forming a basis for creating a strategy for the development of mortgage in Russia in the long term. Given the lack of a close relationship between mortgage lending and the situation in the housing market (in Moscow and St. Petersburg the demand for mortgage is higher than in other regions), the author has formed a more complex diversified model of regional distribution of mortgage lending. The author has also measured the dependence of the volume of housing mortgage loans on the main socioeconomic factors. The key finding of the article is that the most serious factors affecting mortgage lending in Russia are the factors that need to be influenced, specifically the volume of wages, housing prices at current prices, as well as the level of employment in the economy.

Highlights

The transition to a market-oriented economy model contributed to the development of the housing market
The indicators for the grouping are the following: volume of housing mortgage loans issued, million rubles; number of housing mortgage loans issued, units; weighted average loan term, months; weighted interest rate, %; average annual number of employed in the economy, thousand people; unemployment rate, %;per capita money income of the population, rubles per month; average monthly salary, rubles; housing brought into use, million m2;average prices in the primary housing market, rubles
The following indicators were selected: х1 (y) – volume of housing mortgage loans issued, million rubles; х2 – number of housing mortgage loans issued, units; х3 – weighted average loan term, months; х4 – weighted interest rate, %; х5 – average annual number of employed in the economy, thousand people; х6 – unemployment rate, %; х7 – per capita money income of the population, rubles per month; х8 – average monthly salary, rubles; х9 – housing brought into use, million m2; х10 – average prices in the primary housing market, rubles

Summary

Introduction

The transition to a market-oriented economy model contributed to the development of the housing market. Purchasing own home is a top priority for every family. The solution of housing problem is important to citizens, and to a state as a whole. The role of mortgage significantly increases when economy is in an unsatisfactory state, since a developed and efficient mortgage system helps to reduce inflation, on the one side, and address social and economic issues, on the other side [2]. With the increase in the population’s money income, the desire of citizens to improve their housing conditions grows, and the role of housing mortgage increases. Solving social problems, including housing, is one of the top priorities of Russian society

Methods

Results

Conclusion