Mortgage lending market in Russia in terms of exit out of the pandemic

Abstract

Aim. The work aimed to summarize the results of the development of the mortgage lending market during the acute phase of the COVID-19 pandemic and predict its development in the near future.Tasks. The work was performed to investigate the volume of issuance and growth rates of mortgage lending in Russia; to analyze the dynamics of the total mortgage portfolio of the banking system of the Russian Federation (RF), as well as the average cost of 1 square meter of housing in the primary and secondary markets in a pandemic, combined with government support; demonstrate possible changes in the Russian mortgage market during the exit out of the COVID-19 pandemic and consequences of the implementation of state market support programs.Methods. The methodological foundation of the study was the general scientific methods of cognition, namely analysis, synthesis, generalization, visualization, and forecasting. In particular, the authors analyzed the indicators of the mortgage lending and real estate markets, identified causal relationships between the state support for mortgage lending and changes in the main parameters of the real estate market, as well as forecasting the dynamics of its individual indicators.Results. The work presents the main indicators characterizing mortgage lending in Russia from 2014 to the present time, including the aggregate mortgage portfolio of Russian banks. The study describes the average cost of 1 square meter of housing in the primary and secondary markets. The authors of the article predicted changes in the mortgage lending market, the state of the quality of bank loan portfolios and trends in the residential real estate market as a whole.Conclusion. Under conditions of the COVID-19 pandemic, mortgage lending has shown its incredible growth in association with government support. However, according to the authors, there will be significant changes in the future, which will be the consequences of such a rapid development, namely an increase in overdue indebtedness on mortgage loans, a shortage of demand for built housing which has sharply become expensive. Banks will be forced to tighten monitoring of mortgage programs and select carefully new borrowers, ensuring their highest quality.