Housing Market Research Articles

Institutions' dynamics and homeownership aspirations in Ethiopia

The desire to own a home is a common aspiration amongst many. The role of institutions either by enabling or constraining the achievement of the aspirations is very crucial. Unfortunately, the study investigating the impact of these institutional factors on homeownership aspirations was not adequately adequate. Thus, the researchers motivated to analyze the role of institutions for homeownership aspirations. Researchers used qualitative and quantitative data analysis methods to explore the relationship between mortgage access, housing market prices, and homeownership in Sheger City, Ethiopia. The study involved 384 participants, and the results were analyzed using descriptive statistics and multinomial regression. The findings suggest that mortgage access and housing prices play a significant role in shaping homeownership aspirations. However, it was apparent that banks prioritize the wealthy, resulting in the housing market neglecting the needs of low-income individuals and families, leading to unaffordable housing options and findings revealed institutions’ dynamics are accompanied by dysfunctions. The multinomial regression analysis revealed that the likelihood of owning a home over renting one increases when housing becomes more affordable which shows market dysfunctions affect aspirations to homeownership. Obtaining a mortgage is also critical, as it significantly improves the chances of aspiring to own a home. The authors suggest that the Municipality reconsider the affordability of mortgage services and housing prices to ensure that homeownership opportunities are distributed fairly.

Inflation: What we have learned and what we need to know

We discuss the lessons that economic forecasters have learned about inflation since the Covid shock. First, physical shortages—e.g., in the auto sector—can push up goods prices much more dramatically than most forecasters expected following several decades near price stability. Second, imbalances in the rental housing market can sharply increase inflation and keep it high, especially in economies such as the US where rents are used to impute owner-occupied housing costs. Third, the jobs-workers gap can be a better measure of labor market balance than the unemployment rate or the employment/population ratio.Originally prepared for the Spring 2024 NBER conference on “Inflation in the Covid era and beyond”.

One Man’s Bubble Is Another Man’s Rational Behavior: Comparing Alternative Macroeconomic Hypotheses for the US Housing Market

Competing macroeconomic hypotheses have been developed to explain the US housing market and possible bubble behavior. We employ both seasonally adjusted (SA) and non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) monthly data for about 30 independent variables to examine alternative macro hypotheses for home prices. Using a neural network model as an atheoretical non-linear approach to capture the relative importance of alternative macro variables, we show that these hypotheses generate different macro relevance. As an alternative to testing housing time series, we focus on bubble identification being hypothesis dependent. Model forecast errors (residuals) identify the potential presence of bubbles through standardized residual CUSUM tests for structural breaks. By testing for housing bubbles from these unstructured models, we generate conclusions on the presence of bubbles prior to the Great Financial Crisis and the post-pandemic periods. Competing macro hypotheses or narratives will generate different conclusions on the presence of bubbles and create bubble identification issues.

Urbanization and Its Impact on Real Estate Development in Uganda

Urbanization in Uganda is driving significant transformations, impacting the dynamics of cities and the real estate sector. As rural populations migrate to urban centers like Kampala, Entebbe, and Mbarara for better opportunities, the resulting population growth pressures existing infrastructure and exacerbates housing shortages. This surge in demand for residential and commercial properties necessitates substantial investments and innovative approaches to expand and upgrade urban infrastructure. The housing market faces a stark contrast between luxury developments and underserved informal settlements, highlighting the need for affordable housing solutions and policies. Urbanization also offers opportunities for sustainable and smart city development, integrating green building practices, renewable energy, and advanced technologies to enhance urban resilience and efficiency. Government policies and urban planning initiatives are crucial in promoting sustainable growth, affordable housing, and robust infrastructure development. By addressing infrastructure needs, implementing innovative housing solutions, and adopting sustainable urban planning, Uganda can create vibrant, inclusive, and resilient cities for the future. Keywords: Urbanization, Real estate development, Infrastructure, Affordable housing, Sustainable cities.

Estimation of tax incidence in Beijing housing market

ABSTRACT Capital gains tax (CGT) in China charges 20% of the profit from home resale, exempted only if the seller owns only one home and the seller has owned it for more than five years. This work estimates how CGT is shared between seller and buyer. By calculating the price differential between similar CGT-accrued housing units and CGT-exempt housing units and estimating CGT accrued, we find that approximately 50% of CGT is in fact transferred to the buyer. It should be noted that 50% is a lower bound of actual buyer incidence due to data limitations. Appreciating, liquid, quality housing units are associated with higher tax incidence for buyers. To address non-hedonic motives to sell, it is also shown that the price differential between CGT- accrued and CGT-exempt housing units is not a result of demand for liquidity or out of market conditions. This work suggests that regulators should be prudent in utilizing such tax as tools to deter speculation in the housing market.

Cash is King? Understanding Financing Risk in Housing Markets

Abstract In Los Angeles, all-cash home purchases quintupled during the last decade. Compared with an else-equal mortgage offer, a cash offer is associated with 29% shorter time-to-close and a 2-3.9% price discount, indicating a substantial amount of financing risk—the risk to a seller that a transaction may not close on time and may fail to occur again because a mortgage contingency fails. The estimated cash discount aligns well with a canonical model calibrated to the sample market. Our findings reveal that closing risk alone is insufficient to explain the cash discount. Rather, it turns on the possibility that a property back on the market may fail to sell, requiring a substantial risk compensation. The estimated cash discount is smaller during booms and in larger markets, highlighting the inseparability of financial frictions in the mortgage market and search frictions in the housing market.

Analysis of the Housing Market Dynamics Using NARX Neural Network

This study employs a Nonlinear Autoregressive with eXogenous inputs (NARX) neural network to model the dynamics of the housing construction market in Poland, with a distinction made between segments of developers and individual investors. The dataset under analysis contains the 19-year data corresponding to the numbers of housing units approved for construction, under construction, and completed. The NARX model was calibrated thoroughly to suit unique characteristics of the data, with an emphasis put on the hidden layer size and delay parameters, to capture the estate market's nonlinear trends. Results show a very high efficiency of NARX models and highlight distinct patterns and dynamics in the housing completion, construction starts, and permit issuance between the two market segments. These variations are vital for understanding the distinct forces and trends shaping the developers’ and individual investors’ markets in the Polish housing sector. Findings of the analysis provide valuable insight into the nanced functioning of these market segments.

Segregation in Hyderabad: Introspecting Multiple Indexes and Multiple Patterns

Segregation based on caste, religion, and ethnicity exists primarily in the urban housing market in India even in cosmopolitan urban centres like Mumbai, Delhi, Bengaluru, Kolkata, and Hyderabad. The present study maps segregation in Hyderabad and explores its intricate linkages with access to public amenities. This study examines caste-based segregation in urban space using multiple indexes like dissimilarity index (DI), isolation index, interaction index, correlation analysis, and mandal development index (MDI). It is observed that there is no clear link between caste-based DI and MDI. The correlation of MDI and caste-based DI illustrates that it is the location (core or periphery) that decides the level of infrastructural development. This investigation of the link between residential segregation measurement of DI and MDI leads us to conclude that the historical factors are equally crucial along with the social identities to explain urban segregation and discrimination.

THE SITUATION ON THE UKRAINIAN RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE MARKET IN THE PRE-WAR AND WAR PERIODS

The War and the Ukrainian Housing Market: Overview and Forecasts: The article examines the domestic housing market dynamics in the pre-war and war periods. Quantitative indicators of the housing stock of Ukraine are analyzed, and their dynamics and structure are highlighted. The State Program "eRestoration": The Way to Housing Restoration: The features of implementing the "eRestoration" program aimed at compensating damaged and destroyed housing are considered. Trends in price changes in the primary, secondary, and rental housing markets in different regions of Ukraine are substantiated and conceptualized. Resumption of construction: Dynamics and prospects: The article examines aspects of the resumption of construction in Ukraine: the number of residential complexes sold in 2023 and apartments put into operation are analyzed. The state's role in the recovery of the housing market emphasizes the critical role of the state in stimulating the development of the housing market and providing affordable housing for people who lost it due to the war. Housing market: challenges and prospects. 1. Functioning of the housing market: the housing market as a system of economic relations; its role in stimulating savings, redistribution of resources, and investment; the impact of the war on the domestic housing market. 2. Market trends in 2023: growing demand for ready or almost ready housing; higher real estate prices, especially in the western regions; internal and external population migration; slow construction and accumulation of pent-up demand. 3. Future forecasts: stabilization of the market in the absence of escalation of the war; conversion of pent-up demand into new transactions; price correction; opportunities for further market development; stimulation of demand for housing and commercial real estate; development of urban infrastructure. 4. The role of the state: the leading role of the state in the formation of the regulatory framework; implementation of programs to eliminate imbalances in housing provision; elimination of the adverse effects of the war; 5. Conclusion: The restoration and development of the housing market of Ukraine is a complex task that requires joint efforts of the state, businesses, and citizens. Improving the uniqueness of the text: new subheadings were added to improve the structure of the text; more dynamic and emotional words and phrases were used; author's opinions and analytics were added; specific examples and statistics were provided; complex sentences were rephrased to improve readability; a different writing style was used to emphasize the author's handwriting.

Developer sentiment, developer’s strategy and housing supply: evidence from Hong Kong

ABSTRACT The increasingly important role of sentiment in the housing market has complicated the challenges facing developers during boom-and-bust cycles. This study investigates how developer sentiment affects developers’ decision-making and the housing supply at the project level. As the standard evaluation usually overlooks sentiment resulting in suboptimal inferences, we develop a new theoretical model that analyses both sentiment and developers’ optimal strategies. Our findings suggest a ‘U’-shape relationship between developer sentiment and the expected waiting time to develop. Second, the optimal development density declines when developer sentiment intensifies. The Hong Kong housing market is used as a case for empirical analysis.

Performance of structural insulation panels under eccentric axial and racking loads with varying opening ratios

Structural insulation panels, which are actively applied in the housing market in North America and Europe by utilizing wood, an eco-friendly material, as the main material, are composed of OSB (Oriented Strand Board), EPS (Expanded Polystyrene), and SPF (Spruce-Pine-Fir), which is used as a connection between the panels. Structural insulated panels are used as a load-bearing wall to resist external forces without installing separate columns. The production of structural insulation panels consists of applying adhesive to both sides of EPS, which acts as an insulation material, and pressing wood boards (OSB), which exert strength as a structural material. The OSB on the outside resists compressive and tensile forces, while the EPS on the inside resists shear forces. The joints and openings of the structural insulation panels are reinforced with SPF (Spruce-Pine-Fir) structural wood. When structural insulated panels are used as an exterior wall structure, the installation of openings is essential. Based on the opening size that is popularly used in wooden structures, the performance evaluation of structural insulation panels under eccentric axial load and repeated lateral load due to the reduction of the cross-sectional area by installing the opening was carried out, and the behavior analysis through variable analysis and comparison analysis with the design equation was carried out.

Planning for socially sustainable rural housing in Sweden

The aim of this article is to analyse and discuss policies and planning for rural housing, with a special focus on social sustainability. In this endeavour, we review research with such a focus and put this in dialogue with an analysis of the contemporary situation regarding rural housing challenges and policies in Sweden. Countrysides in Europe, including Sweden, are diverse and face different housing-related challenges. The literature illuminates spatial as well as socio-economic inequalities. Both a low demand for housing related to a shrinking labour market and out-migration and a high pressure on the housing market triggering restrictive or conditional measures to avoid speculative developments and rural gentrification affect social sustainability.Our case study on policy and planning measures that deal with rural housing in Sweden shows that there is a need to further investigate and understand the role of housing in rural areas for various groups and people with fewer resources, including further elaboration on the connection between mobilities and housing needs. A narrow focus upon housing provision that does not take into account access to services and communications as well as contemporary mobility flows of different groups challenges equality and well-being in rural areas. In Sweden, housing is primarily a municipal, local responsibility. However, exogenous forces or trends mean that housing issues play out at both the regional and national levels and put the municipalities in a difficult situation.

Housing the poor? Accessibility and exclusion in the local housing systems of Vienna and Milan

AbstractDespite featuring very different housing systems, both in Vienna and Milan a growing number of people struggle to access affordable and decent housing. Even though social housing policies are in place in both contexts, for many the unregulated and often unaffordable private housing market is the only option. Building upon Antonio Tosi’s work, we centre our analysis on the poor and compare how two very different local housing systems create the conditions for their inclusion or exclusion. Through a comparative analysis of the Viennese and Milanese local housing regimes and adopting a mixed methodology, we discuss how both generate conditions of exclusion and who the ones excluded are, which local policies address the poor and how appropriate these are for mitigating housing exclusion. Finally, we indicate some directions for policies aimed at tackling the intersections of poverty and housing exclusion, advocating for a maximization of the ‘sociality’ of housing policies, involving a shift in prioritisation from the middle classes to the most vulnerable groups and the loosening of certain formal access requirements to housing or welfare services that constitute barriers to these groups, where possible.

ASSESSING HOUSING AFFORDABILITY: ANALYSIS OF PROPERTY TAX SYSTEMS IN EUROPEAN COUNTRIES

This paper examines the relationship between property tax systems and housing affordability in European countries. The research contains not only theoretical section, but also empirical analysis. The statistical data used in research was extracted from Eurostat, OECD, and Tax Foundation. As housing affordability increasingly becomes a pressing issue in many European cities, understanding the role of property taxation in shaping affordability dynamics is crucial for policymakers, researchers, and stakeholders. Addressing housing affordability challenges requires a comprehensive understanding of the factors influencing housing costs, with property tax systems playing a pivotal role in shaping housing market dynamics. Through a comprehensive literature review, the paper explores existing research findings on the correlation between property taxation and housing affordability. Utilizing data from the Eurostat database, I conduct a comparative analysis of property tax collection statistics across Europe. It focuses on property tax revenues as percentage of total private stock. In assessing housing affordability, two key indicators were extracted from the Eurostat database: the housing cost overburden rate and housing costs as a proportion of disposable income. Housing costs encompass various expenses associated with dwelling occupancy, including utilities, maintenance, taxes, and insurance. The housing cost overburden rate measures the percentage of households where housing expenses exceed 40% of disposable income, providing insight into the burden of housing costs relative to income. Additionally, paper analyses the proportion of disposable income allocated to housingrelated expenses, offering further insight into affordability trends. The findings contribute to understanding the impact of property tax systems on housing affordability in European countries. By evaluating the relationship between property taxation and housing costs, the strategies can be developed to mitigate housing affordability challenges and promote sustainable housing markets.

Spatial valuation of urban green lungs: Unveiling the true worth of urban parks through MGWR in Chengdu, China

Urban green spaces (UGS), often metaphorically referred to as the “green lungs of cities,” play a crucial role in sustainable urban development and are a key element of land-use policy. This study evaluates the economic value conferred by UGS through urban parks, employing a Multi-scale Geographically Weighted Regression (MGWR) model within a hedonic pricing framework. By focusing on the localized impact of UGS on housing markets in developing megacities, this research utilizes Chengdu, China, as a case study to reveal spatial patterns in property valuations. The findings demonstrate a significant localized impact of UGS on housing prices, characterized by pronounced spatial heterogeneity. A substantial premium on housing values is correlated with proximity to urban parks, reflecting a high market valuation of these green spaces. This premium varies spatially, diminishing in more peripheral urban zones but still significantly influencing overall housing market dynamics. The study highlights the importance of reassessing rapid, policy-driven park expansions. There is a need for value-based UGS integration in sustainable urban planning, emphasizing strategic, ecologically informed decision-making that balances land development with conservation and meaningful resident engagement.

Village Chickens for Achieving Sustainable Development Goals 1 and 2 in Resource-Poor Communities: A Literature Review

The rapid increase in the global human population, particularly in Low-Income Food Deficit Countries (LIFDCs), causes severe food shortages. Food shortages are complex and can be linked to economic, environmental, social, and political variables. Harnessing village chicken products serves as a cheap commercial chicken substitute to address food shortages. The consumption and sales of protein products from village chickens, such as meat, eggs, and internal organs, ensures food security and poverty alleviation in limited-resource communities. However, village chickens have poor-quality end products due to poor management and animal-rearing resources. Village chicken production challenges include the absence of high-quality feed, biosecurity, recordkeeping, housing, and commercial marketing of its end products. Management being based on cultural gender roles instead of the possession of formal poultry management training further limits village chicken production. To improve village chicken end-product quality, poultry management trainings for rural women are suggested due to studies showing that women mainly manage village chicken production. Furthermore, to create a formal market share of village chickens, sensory evaluations need to be conducted using mainstream poultry consumers. This review examined the potential contribution of village chickens in achieving Sustainable Development Goals—one, No Poverty and two, Zero Hunger—to benefit vulnerable groups in resource-poor communities.

Time-Varying Role of House Prices on Monetary Policy in Türkiye

The main focus of this study is examining the time-varying effects of house prices on monetary policy in Türkiye from February 2010 to November 2021. We analyse these effects using a time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model with stochastic volatility (TVP VAR-SV). The evidence indicates that responses of inflation to positive house price shocks decrease over time. The response of credit and interest rates to positive house price shocks increases after 2018. The results reveal that the responses of the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) to the changes in the housing market have changed over time.

Supplementary rental supply? The digital market for low-cost and informal housing in Sydney, Australia

This article examines real estate platforms and the data they generate to provide new insights into housing markets and practices, focusing on lower-cost and informal sectors, where building or rental regulations are often bypassed or contravened. We examine online listings advertised in Sydney, one of the most expensive cities in Australia and the world, compiling data from four dominant platforms – Realestate.com.au, Flatmates.com.au, Gumtree.com.au and Airbnb.com – each of which offers a particular type of rental accommodation. Using these datasets, we identify a typology of lower-cost and informal tenures and dwelling units, ranging from secondary dwellings and illegally subdivided apartments to shared accommodation and precarious rental agreements. Our study highlights a supplementary supply of rental housing, operating within the conventional private rental market, accessed and made visible via the platforms we examine. Applying a statistical regression approach, we examine relationships between concentrations of informal housing supply and socio-economic variables. The findings reveal intersections between digital platforms and evolving informal market practices and have implications for urban planning and housing policy.

A review on American senior housing and financing decisions

Purpose The world population is getting older and housing decisions matter to the security of retirement life and well-being. However, senior housing and financing decisions are largely overlooked in the literature. This study aims to provide a comprehensive overview of the senior housing and financing decisions in the USA. Design/methodology/approach Using 2021 American Housing Survey data and ordinary least squares estimates, this paper studies senior housing and financing decisions in the 15 most populous US metropolitan areas. Multiple regressions are used to analyze the whole sample as well as various subsamples. Findings This paper finds strong evidence that seniors are more likely to own a house with a higher market value compared with nonseniors. More specifically, although race and gender do not matter in this relationship, it is less pronounced among those with higher education. Also, seniors, especially white senior homeowners, are more likely to have a lower mortgage debt burden due to a higher upfront down payment than nonseniors. Last, seniors are more likely to refinance their homes and receive cash than nonseniors. Research limitations/implications Constrained by the data limitations, this study specifically focuses on seniors’ housing and mortgage decisions. Future research could involve exploring seniors’ mortgage decisions by considering factors such as mortgage loan terms, borrower credentials and the evolving landscape of the senior housing market, among other aspects. Practical implications The findings would help policymakers and contractors in the construction industry better understand the uniqueness of challenges in the senior housing market and develop effective housing policies and programs that cater to the needs of the elderly. A comprehensive understanding of the senior housing market would also help seniors make informed purchase and financing decisions. Social implications The authors propose providing financial education to the elderly, particularly those of disadvantaged status, to improve their expertise and bargaining skills in the mortgage loan application process. Originality/value This paper contributes to understanding the dynamic senior housing market, which encounters challenges and opportunities associated with the aging population. The study fills the gap of limited research regarding seniors’ housing decision and their financing choices in the USA and would help policymakers and contractors in the construction industry develop effective housing policies and programs that cater to the needs of the elderly.

Housing Price-Vacancy Dynamics—An Empirical Study of the Hong Kong Housing Market

This study uses time series regression models and dynamic panel models of five-class housing to investigate the dynamics of the housing price-vacancy relationship in Hong Kong, offering insights distinct from previous cross-sectional analyses that take new housing completions as a supply proxy, without considering vacant homes as a source of housing supply. Two major contributions emerge: first, the results support the hypothesis that housing vacancies exert a negative impact on housing prices, holding other factors constant. Second, new builds supply is found to have a positive effect on housing prices, which is in line with many previous studies, but it contradicts the prediction. The results challenge the use of land supply or new housing completions as the proxy of housing supply and put forward a novel suggestion of including vacant homes in the housing price analysis. Advanced approaches to collecting housing vacancy data are also discussed. These findings have significant implications for policymakers, urban planners, and real estate investors, providing valuable insights for crafting targeted interventions and informing investment decisions. This is one of the first time series and dynamic panel analyses of housing vacancy’s effect on prices.