Housing Market Characteristics Research Articles

Stabilizing China’s Housing Market

The sharp rise of house prices in China’s Tier-1 cities has fostered a great deal of commentary about the possibility of bubbles forming there. However, China’s unique housing market characteristics make it difficult to assess the macroeconomic severity of bursting bubbles, even if they exist. These include the setting of land supply and prices by the government, among many others. The presence of overbuilt “ghost cities” greatly complicates the ability of traditional macroeconomic policies to address these concerns. This paper looks at proposals to shore up the mortgage underwriting and legal infrastructure to help China withstand the impact of falling prices, should this occur.

Homeownership and residential stability: does tenure really make a difference?

ABSTRACTHomeownership has long been associated with a myriad of economic, social and civic benefits, prompting countries such as Norway to expand access to homeownership for socio-economically disadvantaged households. In this paper, we explore the impact of homeownership on residential stability using a longitudinal data-set of renters who applied for a state mortgage programme in Norway between 2004 and 2010. These data allow us to specifically address the issue of selection bias in our analysis. We find that even after controlling for a wide range of demographic, socio-economic and housing market characteristics, homeownership has a substantial, positive impact on residential stability. This effect is stronger for groups that are more marginalised in Norwegian housing and labour markets, including East European and non-Western immigrants. The Norwegian case suggests homeownership policy can help to promote social goals, but also highlights the importance of providing welfare supports in tandem with access to mortgage credit in order to reduce the risks of homeownership for lower-income households.

Stabilizing China's Housing Market

The sharp rise of house prices in China’s Tier-1 cities has fostered a great deal of commentary about the possibility of bubbles forming there. However, China’s unique housing market characteristics make it difficult to assess the macroeconomic severity of bursting bubbles, even if they exist. These include the setting of land supply and prices by the government, among many others. The presence of overbuilt “ghost cities” greatly complicates the ability of traditional macroeconomic policies to address these concerns. This paper looks at proposals to shore up the mortgage underwriting and legal infrastructure to help China withstand the impact of falling prices, should this occur.

Stabilizing China's Housing Market

The sharp rise of house prices in China's Tier-1 cities has fostered a great deal of commentary about the possibility of bubbles forming there. However, China's unique housing market characteristics make it difficult to assess the macroeconomic severity of bursting bubbles, even if they exist. These include the setting of land supply and prices by the government, among many others. The presence of overbuilt 'ghost cities' greatly complicates the ability of traditional macroeconomic policies to address these concerns. This paper looks at proposals to shore up the mortgage underwriting and legal infrastructure to help China withstand the impact of falling prices, should this occur.

공시지가를 이용한 아파트 분양가격 예측

부동산이 가계자산에서 차지하는 비중은 우리나라가 다른 나라에 비해 상당히 높다. 그로 인해 부동산가격이 가계경제에 미치는 파급력과 관심도 높다. 분양시장의 특성상 전국의 모든 시군구에서의 분양은 이루어지지 않고, 신규공급물량은 부동산 경기에 따라 차이가 크다. 이러한 이유로 분양가격을 산출하는데 문제점이 존재하고, 이를 보완하여 평균분양가격을 구하기 위해 12개월 이동평균을 이용하고 있다. 그러나 이러한 방법은 평활화현상이 나타나기 때문에 변화하는 부동산 시장을 반영하기에는 어려움이 있다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 이러한 문제점을 보완하여 분양가격에 대한 정보를 제공함으로써 보조지표 개발을 위한 기초자료로 활용하고자 한다. 또한 현재 우리나라에는 전매차익을 노리는 투자자들의 과도한 유입으로 실수요자들의 피해가 커지고 있는 상황이다. 그로 인하여 최근 부동산대책이 새로 발표되었으며, 추후 2년 이내 전국 100만 가구 분양이 계획되어 있다. 이에 대응하여 부산광역시의 평균분양가격과 16개 구․군의 평균공시지가를 기준으로 지목과 주거지의 분류를 통하여 회귀모형을 적용하고 분양가격을 예측한다. 그 결과 주거지로 분류된 회귀모형이 우수한 예측력을 보였다.In Korea, real estate accounts for a greater part of household assets comparing to other countries. Accordingly, influential power of and interest in real estate price are great. Because of characteristics of housing market, apartment sales is not happening in every local government and new apartment supply is varied by real estate market status. For this reason, there are problems in calculating and estimating apartment sales price. To calculate average sales price supplementing these difficulties, moving average for 12 years is commonly used. However, this method may introduce smoothing effects and it may not represent the rapidly changing real estate market. The purpose of this study is to develop sub-indicators providing information on apartment sales price by resolving these problems. Additionally, in Korea investors aiming at trading profit make market overheated and end users become the victims of overheated market. Recently, new policy has been announced to resolve this issue and housing for 1 million households will be supplied for 2 years. To respond to this plan, this study tries to estimate sales price of apartment houses by reviewing and classifying lands according to purpose of land use and classification of residential area based on average sales price in Pusan Metropolitan City and average publicly notified individual land price in 16 Gus and Guns and applying regression model to the values. In the analysis, regression model classified as residential area showed excellent predictive power.

Accessibility of America's Housing Stock: Analysis of the 2011 American Housing Survey (AHS)

The American Housing Survey (AHS) is the most comprehensive national housing survey in the United States. Since 2009, AHS has included six core disability questions used in the American Community Survey. The questions address hearing, visual, cognitive, ambulatory, self-care, and independent living difficulties for each household member. For 2011, AHS added a topical module on accessibility. The module asked about the presence of accessibility features in housing units, including wheelchair accessibility features, and whether the accessibility features were used or not. Together, these data provide an unprecedented opportunity to examine the accessibility of the U.S. housing stock and to ask whether people with disabilities reside in accessible homes. In this report, we present summary measures of housing accessibility based on the 2011 AHS. To develop these summary measures, we examined United States (U.S.) and international standards and regulations regarding housing accessibility, reviewed the relevant literature, and conducted interviews with a set of disability and housing design experts. These interviews are further described in appendix A. Based on these summary measures, we describe how accessibility varies by housing market characteristics as well as resident characteristics such as age, disability status, and income. We also present evidence on the relationship between the need for and availability of accessible housing units, taking affordability of accessible units into account.

Gimme Shelter: Defining Market-Rate Affordable Housing and Its Investment Performance

In the midst of historically low multifamily vacancies, a large supply wave of high-end apartments, and a national discussion of wealth inequality, multifamily conversations increasingly include housing affordability and the availability of affordable multifamily housing. The problem is that although there is much talk, there is no lingua franca. Definitions of the size, scope, and characteristics of the nonsubsidized affordable housing market do not exist. In this article, the authors define the inventory and explore the investment characteristics of nonsubsidized naturally occurring affordable housing in the United States.

International Real Estate Review

This paper outlines an approach to constructing a Dynamic Housing Affordability Index (DHAI) that reflects the anticipated cost of owner-occupied housing and performs well in tracking changes in the demand for homeownership and other aspects of the housing market. Our index is grounded in the user cost theory and influenced by variations in the price of housing, mortgage interest and property tax rates, property insurance, transaction costs, and depreciation and maintenance. It takes into account the benefits from U.S. income tax deductions for mortgage interest and property taxes, and considers the role of expected house price inflation in reducing the cost of housing. We show that the DHAI is correlated with national and regional consumer sentiment which reflects the demand for owner-occupied housing, regional and metropolitan statistical area (MSA) homeownership rates, housing market characteristics including housing starts, and sales of new and existing housing. There is evidence that the DHAI performs better than other popular measures of affordability.

Determinants of Residential Property Value in New Zealand: A Neural Network Approach

Identifying the New Zealand housing market characteristics, the study examined the determinants of residential property price, and showed how different the marginal impact of these factors was. A semi-long linear model was estimated to assess the impact of demand and supply related factors on house prices based on prior studies. The study also employed the multi-layer neural network to evaluate the normalized importance of demand and supply determinants of the residential housing market. On average, both the semi-log-linear and the multi-layer neural network models supported the predictions made in the study that population, real GDP, immigration and housing credit on the demand side, and gross fixed capital formation (GDP) and residential investment on the supply side are the major determinants of residential property prices in New Zealand. Although both the models had shown promising results, the multi-layer neural network approach produced better results compared to the semi-log-linear model.

Examining the Correlates of Sex Offender Residence Restriction Violation Rates

This research examines the contribution of social ecological factors to the variation in sex offender residence restriction (SORR) violation rates, operationalized as a sex offender residing within a buffer zone around a school or a day care. Drawing on data from two Midwestern states, we utilize a quasi-experimental cohort-control group design to examine the correlates of county-level SORR violation rates among a cohort of post-SORR sex offender parolees, and three counterfactual cohorts (pre-SORR sex offenders, pre- and post-SORR non-sex offender parolees). We model the violation rate using a series of fractional logit regressions, examining the contribution of housing market, environmental justice, and system resource variables. We observe that county-level variation in post-SORR sex offender violation rates is directly associated with concentrated disadvantage and the density of residence restrictions. The direct effect of concentrated disadvantage was unique to the post-SORR sex offender cohort. Model predictions suggest that the relationship between SORR density and concentrated disadvantage varies across the study states. The results suggest that factors found to be associated with sex offender clustering (i.e., housing market characteristics) are not associated with SORR violation rates. Instead, this research suggests a model which allows for the simultaneous influence of environmental justice and system resource effects. Future research on the mechanisms underlying these effects is warranted.

Idiosyncratic Risk of House Prices: Evidence from 26 Million Home Sales

This paper uses about 26 million home sales to measure house price idiosyncratic risk for 7,580 U.S. zip codes during three periods: (1) when the U.S. housing market was stable (1996–2000), (2) booming (2001–2007) and (3) busting (2007–2012), and investigates the determinants of house price risk. We find very strong relationships between risk and some basic housing market characteristics. There is a U‐shaped relationship between risk and zip‐code level median household income; risk is higher in zip codes with more appreciation volatility; and risk is not compensated with higher appreciation.

A Dynamic Housing Affordability Index

This paper outlines an approach to constructing a Dynamic Housing Affordability Index (DHAI) that reflects the anticipated cost of owner-occupied housing and performs well in tracking changes in the demand for homeownership and other aspects of the housing market. Our index is grounded in the user cost theory and influenced by variations in the price of housing, mortgage interest and property tax rates, property insurance, transaction costs, and depreciation and maintenance. It takes into account the benefits from U.S. income tax deductions for mortgage interest and property taxes, and considers the role of expected house price inflation in reducing the cost of housing. We show that the DHAI is correlated with national and regional consumer sentiment which reflects the demand for owner-occupied housing, regional and metropolitan statistical area (MSA) homeownership rates, housing market characteristics including housing starts, and sales of new and existing housing. There is evidence that the DHAI performs better than other popular measures of affordability.

Is Los Angeles Becoming Transit Oriented?

Over the past 20 years, local and regional governments in the Los Angeles metropolitan area have invested significant resources in building rail transit infrastructure that connects major employment centers. One goal of transit infrastructure is to catalyze the development of high density, mixed-use housing and commercial activity within walking distance of rail stations, referred to as Transit Oriented Development (TOD). This project examines the quantity, type, and mix of economic activity that has occurred around newly built rail stations in Los Angeles over the past 20 years. Specifically, have the number of jobs or housing market characteristics changed near stations? We use establishment-level data on employment and property-level data on housing transactions to analyze changes in several employment and housing outcomes. Results suggest that new rail stations were located in areas that, prior to station opening, had unusually high employment density and mostly multifamily rental housing. There is no evidence of changes in employment density, housing sales volume, or new housing development within five years after station opening. Regressions suggest that a subset of stations saw increased employment density within five to ten years after opening.

Race and uneven recovery: neighborhood home value trajectories in Atlanta before and after the housing crisis

We use zip-code-level home value data and cluster analysis to define three types of neighborhood housing markets in the Atlanta region based on their levels of volatility and stability before, during, and after the housing crisis. We identify the demographic and housing market characteristics of each of these clusters and use multivariate analysis to measure their predictive association with the neighborhood types. We also examine factors that predict long-term price appreciation over the 2001–2014 period. One key finding is that many black neighborhoods exhibited steep rates of price decline with only little recovery following the crisis. Meanwhile, many predominantly white, middle- and upper-income neighborhoods generally more than recovered from any housing price declines. The findings suggest that the legacies of the mortgage crisis may have long-lasting implications for housing wealth inequality and housing markets. Implications include a call for a renewed commitment to fair housing, community reinvestment, and equitable housing finance policies to support more evenness in recovery.

Is Los Angeles Becoming Transit Oriented?

Over the past 20 years, local and regional governments in the Los Angeles metropolitan area have invested significant resources in building rail transit infrastructure that connects major employment centers. One goal of transit infrastructure is to catalyze the development of high density, mixed-use housing and commercial activity within walking distance of rail stations, referred to as Transit Oriented Development (TOD). This project examines the quantity, type, and mix of economic activity that has occurred around newly built rail stations in Los Angeles over the past 20 years. Specifically, have the number of jobs or housing market characteristics changed near stations? We use establishment-level data on employment and property-level data on housing transactions to analyze changes in several employment and housing outcomes. Results suggest that new rail stations were located in areas that, prior to station opening, had unusually high employment density and mostly multifamily rental housing. There is no evidence of changes in employment density, housing sales volume, or new housing development within five years after station opening. Regressions suggest that a subset of stations saw increased employment density within five to ten years after opening.

Selective mobility, segregation and neighbourhood effects

Selective mobility, segregation and neighbourhood effects

Selective mobility, segregation and neighbourhood effects

Selective mobility, segregation and neighbourhood effects

Selective mobility, segregation and neighbourhood effects

Selective mobility, segregation and neighbourhood effects

Homeowner Balance Sheets and Monetary Policy

This paper empirically identifies an important channel through which monetary policy affects consumer spending: homeowner balance sheets. A monetary loosening increases home values, thereby strengthening homeowner balance sheets and stimulating household spending due to a combination of collateral and wealth effects. The magnitude of these effects on a given household depends on local housing market characteristics such as local geography and regulation. Cities with the largest geographic and regulatory barriers to new construction see 3-4 percent responses in real house prices compared with unconstrained, elastic-supply cities where construction holds prices in check. Using non-public geocoded microdata from the Consumer Expenditures Survey, house price and consumption responses are compared across areas differing in local land availability and zoning laws to identify a marginal propensity to consume out of housing of 0.07. Homeowners with debt service ratios in the highest quartile have MPCs as high as 0.14 compared with negligible responses for those with low debt service ratios. This indicates a strong role for collateral effects, as opposed to pure wealth effects, in driving the relationship between home values and spending. I discuss the implications of these results for the aggregate effects and regional heterogeneity in responses to monetary shocks.

Affordability After Subsidies: Understanding the Trajectories of Former Assisted Housing in Florida

Each year, thousands of units are lost from the assisted rental housing inventory through deterioration and default, subsidy expiration, and market-rate conversion. While a good deal of research and data collection has focused on identifying at-risk developments, less is known about what happens to former assisted developments after they exit income and rent restrictions. This article uses a survey of former assisted properties in Florida to identify their postsubsidy trajectories—that is, as to whether developments continue as rental housing, are converted to condominiums, or leave the housing stock through vacancy and demolition; and for those that continue as rental housing, whether they continue to offer affordable rents. Using logistic regression models, the article examines the property, housing market, and neighborhood characteristics that determine these trajectories. The results show that smaller properties, those that have been out of subsidy programs longer, and those in stronger neighborhood housing markets are more likely to be converted to condominiums. Among developments that continue as rental housing, those that previously had more stringent rent restrictions, those in strong rental submarkets, and those with better transit access tend to become unaffordable compared with previous rent limits.