Race and uneven recovery: neighborhood home value trajectories in Atlanta before and after the housing crisis

Abstract

We use zip-code-level home value data and cluster analysis to define three types of neighborhood housing markets in the Atlanta region based on their levels of volatility and stability before, during, and after the housing crisis. We identify the demographic and housing market characteristics of each of these clusters and use multivariate analysis to measure their predictive association with the neighborhood types. We also examine factors that predict long-term price appreciation over the 2001–2014 period. One key finding is that many black neighborhoods exhibited steep rates of price decline with only little recovery following the crisis. Meanwhile, many predominantly white, middle- and upper-income neighborhoods generally more than recovered from any housing price declines. The findings suggest that the legacies of the mortgage crisis may have long-lasting implications for housing wealth inequality and housing markets. Implications include a call for a renewed commitment to fair housing, community reinvestment, and equitable housing finance policies to support more evenness in recovery.