Housing Demand Research Articles

Housing prices and points of interest in three Polish cities

This paper shows the usefulness of open source points-of-interest (POI) data for understanding the causes of volatility in residential property prices. Points of interest are unique locations or features cartographically mapped in space and explicitly connected to various aspects of human life. This point number, and density, primarily reflect a city’s spatial structure. They could therefore indicate a higher quality of life in a given urban zone, resulting in higher demand for housing in the area and, consequently, higher housing prices. This study was conducted in three Polish cities: Warsaw, Poznań and Olsztyn. Our research also attempted to establish which POI categories constitute stimulants and which are destimulants in the housing market. To determine the significance of POI in the price formation process, we used the quantile regression model and its spatial version, apart from classical regression models. The results of our research show the importance of POIs for the formation of housing prices. Individual POI categories are of minor importance, while the simultaneous presence of many different POIs definitely has a positive impact on housing prices.

Aging and real estate prices in Germany

AbstractExploiting regional heterogeneity in population dynamics across more than 10,000 municipalities in Germany, we provide robust empirical evidence that population aging depresses real estate prices and rents. Using millions of individual real estate listings and detailed demographic data at the municipality level, we estimate that average sales prices in 2020 would have been up to 12% higher if the population age distribution had been the same as in 2008. We show that population aging not only reduces prices but also increases the availability of real estate. In addition, we document substantial heterogeneity in price responses across dwelling type, property characteristics, and urban-rural status, suggesting that lower housing demand and life-cycle dissaving are driving our results. We predict that population aging will continue to exert downward pressure on house prices and exacerbate regional disparities in Germany.

A Neural Network Forecasting Approach for the Smart Grid Demand Response Management Problem

Demand response management (DRM) plays a crucial role in the prospective development of smart grids. The precise estimation of electricity demand for individual houses is vital for optimizing the operation and planning of the power system. Accurate forecasting of the required components holds significance as it can substantially impact the final cost, mitigate risks, and support informed decision-making. In this paper, a forecasting approach employing neural networks for smart grid demand-side management is proposed. The study explores various enhanced artificial neural network (ANN) architectures for forecasting smart grid consumption. The performance of the ANN approach in predicting energy demands is evaluated through a comparison with three statistical models: a time series model, an auto-regressive model, and a hybrid model. Experimental results demonstrate the ability of the proposed neural network framework to deliver accurate and reliable energy demand forecasts.

Embodied Energy and Thermal Performance of Alternate Walling Materials in Affordable Housing in the Composite Climate of Delhi

Meeting the affordable housing shortage in India in a short time has its environmental and social challenges. It not only requires huge resources but is also a big social responsibility to provide economical and comfortable housing for the marginalized section of society. Improper selection of construction materials may lead to the locking up of massive energy as embodied energy of materials and uncomfortable indoor living conditions. The present study focuses on the need for consideration of both embodied energy and thermal performance in the selection of materials for the building envelope in naturally ventilated affordable housing in India. Walling materials form a major part of the building envelope and thus it's crucial to assess their performance. This paper presents an analysis of embodied energy and thermal performance of fly ash Bricks, AAC blocks, and RCC precast panels as walling options in comparison to conventional walling material of burnt clay brick in the composite climate zone of Delhi. This analysis is being carried out for the alternate walling solutions in practice or emerging for mid to high-rise EWS housing construction in this region. The embodied energy values per cubic meter are compared for each wall assembly for the lifecycle stage cradle to gate. Thermal simulation results are presented in terms of indoor operative temperatures achieved by each wall type material and compared with the comfort temperature range prescribed by the comfort model IMAC-R, 2022 to find out the ‘discomfort degree hours’. The results of the study underscore the suitability of fly ash bricks and AAC blocks as sustainable alternatives due to their lower embodied energy compared to traditional burnt clay bricks base case. Fly ash bricks even outperform the base case in terms of thermal comfort. The study discourages the use of burnt clay bricks due to very high embodied energy. The study also strongly discourages the use of RCC panels in the composite climate as they exhibit both poor thermal comfort and high embodied energy. The study findings would help government agencies to make environmentally and socially conscious decisions about the use of walling materials on a large scale in meeting the affordable housing demand.

Understanding housing preferences and challenges of older adults in Kalisz, Poland

Purpose: This study aimed to identify the demographic, economic, and social factors that influence the housing demand of older adults in Kalisz, Poland, and assess their preferences and challenges in meeting their housing needs. Methodology: A quantitative survey was conducted among individuals aged 50 and above in Kalisz. The survey questionnaire covered various aspects, including current housing conditions, housing preferences, knowledge of senior housing options, and willingness to relocate to such housing. Data analysis involved descriptive statistics and correlation analysis. Results: The findings revealed that while most respondents were satisfied with their current housing situation, they acknowledged the need for housing options tailored to older adults. However, there was a lack of interest in relocating to designated senior housing due to concerns about affordability, accessibility, and amenities. Respondents expressed a preference for independent living arrangements with access to medical, care, and rehabilitation services. Theoretical contribution: The study contributes to the understanding of the housing needs and preferences of older adults in the context of a medium-sized city in Poland. It highlights the importance of considering demographic shifts and adapting housing policies and urban planning strategies to meet the diverse requirements of an aging population. Practical implications: The findings can inform policymakers, urban planners, and housing developers in designing and implementing housing solutions that cater to the specific needs of older adults, ensuring accessible, affordable, and supportive living environments. The study also emphasizes the need for public awareness and education regarding senior housing options.

The Role of Digital Inclusive Finance in Weakening Real Estate Market Speculation

A multitude of studies have extensively examined strategies for achieving sustainable development in the real estate market. As the pivotal component of land economy, the real estate market plays a crucial role in ensuring its sound operation. However, it is currently undergoing significant adjustments and grappling with rampant speculative activities, resulting in an alarming bubble. By scrutinizing the speculative motivations of different entities, we present a novel perspective on mitigating speculation. Our analysis reveals that digital inclusive finance effectively curbs residents’ and enterprises’ speculative behavior, as evidenced by diminished prevention motivation and investment substitution motivation. Utilizing data from 280 cities, this study measures real estate market speculation by establishing a model that the volatility of the housing market turnover, as a proportion of GDP, deviates from the actual housing demand transactions based on economic fundamentals. Furthermore, it investigates the relationship between digital inclusive finance and real estate market speculation, along with its spatial effects. The findings indicate that digital inclusive finance significantly curbs real estate market speculation and has a negative spatial spillover effect. This research provides a novel model and perspective for exploring real estate market speculation while positively impacting sustainable development within the real estate market.

The impact of US housing demand and supply shocks on the Australian economy: Analysis implementing a SVAR model

AbstractThis thesis develops an open economy structural vector autoregression model to determine how the Australian economy is affected by both a US housing demand shock and a US housing supply shock. Previous literature has either grouped Australia with other economies or has excluded Australia altogether. This leaves a significant literature gap in explaining how the Australian economy is solely impacted. The results of the model indicate both a US housing demand and a US housing supply shock significantly impact the Australian economy, with the most significant being the impact of a US house price shock upon Australian GDP which is large and persistent over time. The results contribute to the understanding of how Australian policymakers should incorporate the US housing market into policy decisions and central bank modelling.

Analysis of the Influence of Peatlands on the Development of the Palangka Raya Urban Area

Palangka Raya City has been designated the National Activity Center for the Central Kalimantan Province, resulting in a 2.24% increase in the city’s population growth rate. As a consequence, the demand for housing has surged, leading to a reduction in peat land. Peatlands are vital for carbon storage, water system support, and biodiversity preservation. Therefore, it is crucial to consider the impact of projected urban development on peatlands. The Cellular Automata method, a spatially discrete dynamic system of regular cells with processing time at each different stage, was used to calculate this impact. According to the two CA approaches, bushland might be converted into residential land, while the driving factor approach suggests that the rate of residential development is at 74.48%. Unfortunately, peatland in Jekan Raya, Sabangau, and Pahandut sub-districts has significantly reduced. Therefore, implementing a peatland protection scheme is necessary to prevent urban area development from diminishing the environmental value of Palangka Raya City.

INDUSTRY PERSPECTIVE ON THE TRANSITION TO ECO-FRIENDLY SINGLE-FAMILY HOMES

As the global climate continues to change, countries across the world face a critical challenge in balancing sustainable construction, lowering construction costs, and increasing housing affordability and the United States is no exception. Since the U.S. building sector is a major contributor to CO2 and other greenhouse gases emissions, it necessitates the adoption of eco-friendly construction practices, which may increase construction costs. On the other hand, with the persistent yet increasing demand for affordable housing, it is imperative to navigate these concurrent issues efficiently. The challenges of climate-friendly buildings, affordable construction, and housing costs come together in a complex way. Ensuring that housing is both environmentally friendly and affordable for everyone, a deep understanding and innovative ideas are essential. The overarching goal of this study is two-fold. First, it aims to understand how the building industry in the state of Massachusetts, U.S. is addressing the transition to building more eco-friendly single-family homes. Second, it looks at the construction costs associated with building these energy-efficient homes by obtaining real estimates from subcontractors. Through these steps, this study offers a clear picture of the challenges and opportunities in an effort to provide housing that is both energy-efficient and affordable.

INDUSTRY PERSPECTIVE ON THE TRANSITION TO ECO-FRIENDLY SINGLE-FAMILY HOMES

As the global climate continues to change, countries across the world face a critical challenge in balancing sustainable construction, lowering construction costs, and increasing housing affordability and the United States is no exception. Since the U.S. building sector is a major contributor to CO2 and other greenhouse gases emissions, it necessitates the adoption of eco-friendly construction practices, which may increase construction costs. On the other hand, with the persistent yet increasing demand for affordable housing, it is imperative to navigate these concurrent issues efficiently. The challenges of climate-friendly buildings, affordable construction, and housing costs come together in a complex way. Ensuring that housing is both environmentally friendly and affordable for everyone, a deep understanding and innovative ideas are essential. The overarching goal of this study is two-fold. First, it aims to understand how the building industry in the state of Massachusetts, U.S. is addressing the transition to building more eco-friendly single-family homes. Second, it looks at the construction costs associated with building these energy-efficient homes by obtaining real estimates from subcontractors. Through these steps, this study offers a clear picture of the challenges and opportunities in an effort to provide housing that is both energy-efficient and affordable.

Evaluation of water use impacts caused by real estate development with gentrification traits in the metropolitan area of San Luis Potosí

Water resource management is a technical, social, and political issue worldwide. Water, being a public good, is characterized as follows: “Unlike private goods, public goods are indivisible and cannot be satisfactorily met by the market or other private initiatives. The provision of public goods requires cooperation or coercion, either through collective action or effective government.” In this sense, water is a human right, as stated by the UN in its sixth sustainable development goal, which aims to “ensure availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all.” Gradually, housing in the city of San Luis Potosí has shifted from being affordable for the entire population to becoming increasingly unattainable. Due to the growing demand for housing driven by common population growth and urban development, in recent years, vertical construction-both residential and commercial-has been implemented as a potential solution to this phenomenon, now accounting for 10% of constructions in this area in the capital city, according to the Registro Único de la Vivienda as of 2023. However, such constructions have brought new challenges to urbanization in San Luis Potosí city. As noted by Lozano Niño Y., areas, where high-socioeconomic-status apartment buildings with gentrification features proliferate, were not planned to support high population densities. Eventually, one of the possible consequences of high densification in these areas will be the inadequacy of basic services such as water. While vertical housing offers an alternative to maximize land use within the urban sprawl and could address housing demands, there is also a need to improve public services and urban infrastructure in the surrounding areas where these constructions are planned to prevent social inequality in terms of public service distribution. This study aims to analyze the relationship between case studies—buildings with gentrification features-and their impact on the use and distribution of potable water among the inhabitants of the urban sprawl of San Luis Potosí, by using geospatial methods and technologies.

Credit easing, income gap, and housing price fluctuation

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused a global economic recession, forcing several countries to adopt credit easing policies. This study examines the impact of credit easing on housing price fluctuations from an income gap perspective. Through the construction and analysis of a heterogeneous agent model, we reveal that credit easing promotes the rise of house prices and a positive correlation exists between the income gap and the effect of credit easing on house prices. Additionally, credit easing substantially enhances the housing demand of low-income people, increasing debt and house prices. The analysis using panel data from 36 countries from 1970 to 2018 confirms that compared to rising income for high-income people, a decline in the income level of low-income people significantly increases credit easing effect on house prices.

Field diagnosis of the criteria for selecting affordable housing in less developed countries: evidence from homeowners and renters in Ghana

Purpose In the Global North, affordable housing has evolved and thrived, and it is now gaining traction in the Global South, where governments have been vocal supporters of the concept. Therefore, this paper aims to investigate the important criteria for selecting affordable housing units in Ghana. Design/methodology/approach A quantitative research approach was used, and a survey was administered to the residents. The data was analysed using both descriptive and inferential statistics. The relative importance index technique was used to rank the important criteria, and the EFA technique was used to create a taxonomy system for the criteria. Findings The hierarchical ranking of the most significant criteria for selecting affordable housing includes community safety, waste management and access to good-quality education. Furthermore, the important criteria for selecting affordable housing are classified into two groups, namely, “sustainability criteria” and “housing demand and supply and social service provision”. Research limitations/implications This study has implications for the real estate industry and construction stakeholders, as this will inform decision-making in terms of the design of affordable housing and the suitability of the location for the development. Originality/value These findings provide a baseline to support potential homeowners and tenants in their quest to select affordable housing. Furthermore, these findings will aid future longitudinal research into the indicators or criteria for selecting suitable locations for the development of low- and middle-income housing.

Utilizing Qual2Kw software to calculate the pollution load capacity of Ciliwung River Segment IV (Depok City)

Situated in the administrative boundaries of West Java Province and DKI Jakarta Province, the Ciliwung River is a national river. Its river length is about 120 km, and its watershed area is about 425 km³ (DAS). The population of Depok City is growing at a pace of 1.79% annually, which leads to a rise in the demand for food, clothing, and housing, among other necessities. As a result of the growth of various industrial and community residential buildings to accommodate human needs, wastewater discharge into rivers will increase and the amount of pollution entering the Ciliwung River may surpass its carrying capacity if efforts are not made to control water pollution. As a result, research must be done to ascertain Segment IV Depok City's Ciliwung River Pollutant Load Capacity utilizing a simulation model and Qual2Kw software. Primary data samples of the Ciliwung River's water and pollution sources that enter it were collected for this study, in addition to firsthand field observations. Data calibration is carried out after entering hydraulic and quality data into worksheets. In order to ensure that river flow data still satisfies class II river water quality standards, modeling is done utilizing the following sources: (1) existing data; (2) upstream data of class II river water quality standards; and (3) current conditions of river flow and trial & error pollutant source data. The findings indicated that the Ciliwung River section IV, Depok City, has a somewhat contaminated water quality. Pollutant loads for TSS and COD criteria can still be accommodated in Ciliwung River section IV, Depok City. In the meantime, the BOD criteria for carrying pollutant loads has been surpassed; therefore, to meet class II water quality regulations, the BOD pollutant load needs to be reduced by 22.58% to 37.50%.

A Comprehensive Study of Factors Influencing Rental Prices in Shanghai

Shanghai, as a city with a high demand for rental housing, rents and the factors affecting rents are a concern for many individuals. This paper analyzes Shanghai Lane house rental in 2021. Using data from Kaggle, key variables such as square meters, location, latitude and longitude, bedrooms, living rooms, bathrooms, lofts, outdoor spaces, and underfloor heating were examined to understand their impact on rents. Using multiple linear regression and stepwise regression methods, the study identified the important factors that influence rental prices. Correlation analysis and multiple regression models revealed a strong relationship between rent and variables such as square meters, bedrooms, living rooms, dining rooms and bathrooms. The R-square values of the models were 0.689 and 0.360, respectively, indicating that these variables collectively explain a significant portion of the variation in rents. It highlights the positive impact of neighborhoods, living-dining rooms, and outdoor spaces on rents, while lofts negatively affect rental prices. Providing valuable insights for policymakers, real estate professionals, and urban planners, this comprehensive analysis greatly contributes to the understanding of urban housing markets, especially in fast-growing cities such as Shanghai.

Two-Stage Solar–NaOH Thermochemical Heat Pump Heating System for Building Heating: Operations Strategies and Theoretical Performance

Heating buildings with solar energy is challenged by the seasonal mismatch between solar availability and heating demand. Thermochemical energy storage is a promising technology to overcome this challenge because of its high energy density. In building applications, space requirement is also an important consideration. Therefore, both the storage space and collector areas are important considerations, with only the latter often being neglected in previous studies. This paper proposes a novel two-stage thermochemical heat pump heating system based on the working pair of NaOH/H2O. We demonstrate that this system can work with a concentration difference (70% wt–30% wt) for the climate in hot summer and cold winter regions in China. The energy storage density based on the discharged solution is 363 kWh/m3. With this solar-driven thermochemical heat pump heating system, 35.13 m2 of collectors and 10.48 tons of 70% wt NaOH solution are sufficient to complete a full charge–discharge cycle and meet the heating demand of a single-family house (winter space heating + DHW: 9370 kWh, summer DHW: 2280 kWh). The theoretical maximum storage for solution (discharged + water tank) is 32.47 m3. Compared with the sensible seasonal storage alternative, the collector area is reduced by 12.5% and the storage space is reduced by 59%, with a possible further reduction through optimization. With the potential to be further optimized for space saving, the two-stage solar–NaOH heat pump heating system is an energy-efficient and space-efficient heating system for buildings in the hot summer and cold winter regions of China.

The return on everything and the business cycle in production economies

Motivated by recent empirical evidence on returns on equity, bonds, and housing, we study interactions among an economy’s total net worth, consisting of housing and equity, the business cycle, and three specific types of productivity risk: standard, long-run, and disaster. Preferences include habits or follow a generalized recursive form. Procyclical housing adjustments reduce consumption risk as residential investment determines the next-period amount of housing as a fraction of the composite consumption good. The existence of an asset that is safe in real terms and has a positive supply prevents versions with habits or long-run risk from simultaneously replicating risk premia, investment volatility, and housing demand. The disaster risk version replicates these targets. In all versions, a perfectly negative correlation between equity returns and the marginal utility of consumption places the equity Sharpe ratios in the upper bound of any Sharpe ratios (the Hansen–Jagannathan bound). Consequently, replicating Sharpe ratios of housing larger than equity is impossible.

Experimental and numerical study on the thermal performance of earthbag-wall units incorporated with phase change materials

The demand for temporary housing for refugees and displaced communities has led to the development of earthbag buildings. While these structures are affordable and sustainable, they often struggle with thermal discomfort in extreme climates. This study aims to examine the integration of phase change materials (PCM) into earthbag walls to improve thermal performance. The research involved incorporating paraffin wax and microencapsulated PCM into scaled-down earthbag walls, with their performance evaluated in a controlled environment. The results were validated against a numerical simulation model developed in EnergyPlus. The study revealed significant thermal improvements with PCM integration. Wall-2, with paraffin wax A31, demonstrated a surface temperature reduction of up to 1.9 °C, while Wall-3, with microencapsulation Inertek26, showed a decrease of 2.4 °C compared to the reference wall. A parametric analysis highlighted the importance of PCM layer thickness. Specifically, Wall-2 with a 6 cm paraffin wax layer achieved a maximum reduction of 4.0 °C compared to the base case. The study identified the transition temperature of PCM as a critical factor in thermal performance, with paraffin wax A31 emerging as the optimal choice. Placing the PCM layer on the interior surface of the wall was more effective than exterior placement. Overall, PCM integration in earthbag walls offers a promising solution to enhance thermal comfort in temporary housing, addressing the critical needs of refugees and displaced communities. This research fills existing gaps in thermal comfort in temporary housing and demonstrates the potential of PCM as an innovative passive design strategy.

Impacts of demand and supply-side interventions on South Korea’s housing markets: a dynamic housing-CGE analysis

This paper examines the impacts of housing market policies in Korea by developing a dynamic computable general equilibrium model integrating regional housing markets and multiregional mobility. We compare simulation outcomes of demand- and/or supply-side approaches in housing market interventions and address how these various policy instruments affect housing prices, demand, and household welfare. Policy simulation results suggest that supply-based interventions would be more effective than housing tax policies for cooling down overheated housing markets without decreasing consumer welfare. Tax-based demand-side approaches result in a 1.8–2.2% housing price drop and a 1.1–1.2% welfare decline annually between 2021 and 2024. In the supply-side policy, investing in housing construction leads to 3.4–4.1% lower housing prices and 1.5–1.8% enhanced welfare.

Analysis of sustainable investment policies for housing demand in Qatar via hybrid quantum fuzzy decision-making model

Analysis of sustainable investment policies for housing demand in Qatar via hybrid quantum fuzzy decision-making model