House Prices Research Articles

The influence of urban green and recreational areas on the price of housing in Zagreb

Urban green and recreational spaces are important for residents and one of the foundations for the functioningof cities. They offer numerous benefits, including the influence on the price of real estate as an economic benefit.In this paper, the influence of green and recreational areas in Zagreb on the price of apartments in residential buildings is analysed using the hedonic pricing model. The data for the study was processed and analysed using a geographic information system. A local hedonic price model was developed. The results show that some of the observed green and recreational areas increase the price of housing due to their proximity, while others decrease it. Some areas have no influence on the price of housing. The influence of the observed areas on housing prices was heterogeneous. Spatial differences were also found in the influence of the observed areas on housing prices. The most attractive factors when choosing a place to live are Jarun and the parks in the city centre. The price of apartments that near the Jarun increases by 41 EUR/m2 if the apartment is 100 m closer to the Jarun. The price of the apartment increases by 91 EUR/m2 the closer the apartment is to the parks in the city centre (per 100 m). Apartments near Jarun and the parks in the city centre are not available for residents with lower socio-economic status. The forest areas, Maksimir Park and the banks of the Sava river are not favoured when choosing a place to live. Neighbourhoods near these areas are available to the lower socioeconomic status population. Bundek raises the price of one part of the apartments and lowers the price of the other. The results of this study can contribute to the study of green gentrification in Zagreb, but further research is needed on socio-economic indicators and other changes in the region.

Gobi wind blows housing price away: Willingness to pay for clean air in China

Economists often reply on housing market to investigate the willingness to pay for clean air, while potential endogeneity concerns pose challenges. This paper proposes an identification strategy based on the Gobi Desert dust storm, providing suitable instrumental variable for hedonic models at the house-day level in East Asia. We exploit within-Beijing and over-time variation in air pollution caused by dust storm and find that after addressing endogeneity issues, the negative impact of air pollution on housing prices strengthened nearly fivefold. Buyers in Beijing are willing to pay an additional 7.9% in housing prices for a decrease of PM10 by 100 μg/m³, indicating that the benefits of air pollution improvement in Beijing over the past decade are more than 1.5 trillion yuan in the housing market. This paper also reveals that an increase in air pollution leads sellers to exhibit a higher willingness to sell, reflecting in lower listing prices, heightened bargaining power for buyers, and a shorter transaction cycle.

How Do Housing Markets Affect Local Consumer Prices?: Evidence from U.S. Cities

AbstractWe examine the link between house and consumer prices in 41 U.S. cities using retail price data for various consumer goods. We find that shifts in house prices precede consumer price changes, with varying impacts depending on location and product categories. The nature of housing market shocks matters too; housing supply shocks move consumer prices temporarily through the cost‐push dynamics, while housing demand shocks have enduring effects via wealth and collateral channels. Our findings imply that housing market fluctuations may have greater impacts on local cost of living and consumer welfare than their representation in the Consumer Price Index.

Monetary policy and house price heterogeneity: Evidence from the U.K

This paper investigates the effects of monetary policy shocks on regional house prices in the U.K. The empirical results indicate significant heterogeneity in the impact of monetary policy on regional house prices. Focusing on the source of heterogeneity, the paper suggests a demand-side factor to be a major driver. The regions with relatively affordable housing exhibit higher sensitivity to monetary policy than those with less affordable housing. The prevailing view that region-specific housing supply constraints and regional housing supply elasticity are responsible for the heterogeneous response of regional house prices to monetary policy shocks is not confirmed by the empirical findings.

PROPERTY PURCHASE: ISSUES AND CHALLENGES FACING BY FIRST HOUSE BUYERS IN MALAYSIA DURING COVID-19 PANDEMIC (YEAR 2020-2022)

This article intended to identify issues and challenges facing by first house buyers when they are buying first house in Malaysia. Theresults from this article can provide insights to related stakeholders in helping first house buyers to come up with better policies. Withthe development of the economy, housing prices are still unaffordable and are gradually rising every year. However, household income has not increased accordingly, which is the main problem affecting Malaysians’ difficulty in affording a house. Previously the Malaysian homeownership rate is already declining due to the expensive house price where the COVID-19 pandemic has caused a severe downturn to Malaysia, especially the housing market which has been affected poorly. This article adopted quantitative research method where the primary data was collected through questionnaire surveys. The sample size was determined by referring to Krejcie and Morgan method. The questionnaires are distributed through internet platforms such as Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp to collect more responses as online survey brings convenience to respondents. 155 responds were collected from the respondents. From the results, unstable financial positions, unemployment rate, difficulty in obtaining loans, and location factors are the first house buyers’ main issues and challenges. These factors required intervention from the government to save the economy through several policies. Since majority of first house buyers are not familiar with the issues and challenges that they need to consider before making the decision to purchase their first house, this article’s outcomes help first house buyers to do decisions by discussing the issues and challenges that need to be considered. Furthermore, the outcomes can be referred to once the first house buyers encounter similar situations as the results can be used as guidance to help them to understand the problems.

Housing Price Prediction - Machine Learning and Geostatistical Methods

Abstract Machine learning algorithms are increasingly often used to predict real estate prices because they generate more accurate results than conventional statistical or geostatistical methods. This study proposes a methodology for incorporating information about the spatial distribution of residuals, estimated by kriging, into selected machine learning algorithms. The analysis was based on apartment prices quoted in the Polish capital of Warsaw. The study demonstrated that machine learning combined with geostatistical methods significantly improves the accuracy of housing price predictions. Local factors that influence housing prices can be directly incorporated into the model with the use of dedicated maps.

Variable selection of nonparametric spatial autoregressive models via deep learning

With the development of deep learning techniques, the application of neural networks to statistical inference has dramatically increased in popularity. In this paper, we extend the deep neural network-based variable selection method to nonparametric spatial autoregressive models. Our approach incorporates feature selection and parameter learning by introducing Lasso penalties in a residual network structure with spatial effects. We transform the problem into a constrained optimization task, where optimizing an objective function with constraints. Without specifying sparsity, we are also able to obtain a specific set of selected variables. The performance of the method with finite samples is demonstrated through an extensive Monte Carlo simulation study. Finally, we apply the method to California housing price data, further validating its superiority in terms of variable selection and predictive performance.

Analysis of the Combined Impact of Socio-Economic Factors on House Price Volatility in the Housing Market

As an important variable in China’s economic system, real estate price is a key point closely linked to the country’s economy and people’s livelihood. It is of great practical significance to study the impact of socio-economic factors in the housing market on China’s house prices and its transmission mechanism, so as to put forward corresponding policy recommendations for stabilizing house prices and preventing real estate market and financial risks. Taking China’s time series data from 2014 to 2023 as a sample, this paper empirically investigates the law of the relationship between socio-economic factors in the housing market and house price fluctuations by constructing a structural vector autoregressive model, and employs impulse response function and variance decomposition to analyze the relationship between the two dynamically. The study shows that the 15-period variance decomposition effect of itself and residents’ disposable income are the main influencing factors of house price fluctuation, and the degree of explanation of its fluctuation is 55.5% and 23.2% respectively. In a market economy, real estate prices fluctuate up and down around their value due to the law of value. Therefore, real estate prices cannot rise indefinitely, and the final result should be stabilized within a reasonable level.

Housing prices, airport noise and an unforeseeable event of silence

To evaluate the causal impact of noise exposure on housing prices, we exploit a sudden and massive reduction in flight traffic that occurred with the onset of the COVID-19 measures in Germany. Comparing locations differently exposed to pre- pandemic noise with a difference-in-difference approach, we detect a 2.4% increase in prices for apartments that experienced a noise reduction. Disentangling temporal dynamics, we find a peak effect in mid-2021 (up to 6%), with the effect persisting until 2023, albeit at a lower magnitude. In contrast to most evaluations show- ing that the erection of a disamenity affects prices negatively, we show that lifting the burden enables neighborhoods to catch up again immediately. The immediate catch-up contradicts a stickiness of housing prices regarding (temporal) local fac- tors. The temporal pattern shows a clear peak of the effects during the pandemic, which potentially hints at information asymmetries since buyers may not know the non-pandemic noise level during the pandemic.

Impact of North Korean Threats on Housing Prices in South Korea: A Research Note

Impact of North Korean Threats on Housing Prices in South Korea: A Research Note

A study on the benefits of housing pension according to housing prices

A study on the benefits of housing pension according to housing prices

A study on the benefits of housing pension according to housing prices

A study on the benefits of housing pension according to housing prices

Analysis of Factors Affecting Regional Housing Prices : Using Markov Switching Approach

Analysis of Factors Affecting Regional Housing Prices : Using Markov Switching Approach

Willingness analysis of middle-aged and older people’s participation in reverse mortgage schemes

Enabling older adults to age at home is an urgent issue. This study focuses on the attitudes of middle-aged and older people (MAOP) in the capital cities of Taiwan, which are characterised by expensive housing prices and living costs, to examine their preferences for reverse mortgage (RM) schemes. The stated preference method and conditional multinomial logit model are utilised for analysis. The study simulates the total payment duration (TPD) and monthly payment amounts (MPA) to determine the market share of MAOPs’ choices regarding terms. The results indicate that MAOPs tend to opt for RM schemes when they have children, partly enhancing the preference toward the long-term alternative (AL). Increasing the MPA has a positive effect on the market share of the AL scheme, but the amount must be increased to 90% to replace the market share of non-participation schemes significantly. The experimental design of this study could serve as a reference for future RM scheme designs. The findings suggest that there should be more alternative funding sources in an ageing society, particularly through revitalising housing assets, to promote ageing in place.

Has Cross-City Commuting Promoted Housing Purchases among the Workforce within Metropolitan Areas?—An Empirical Analysis from Micro Survey Data from China’s Three Major Metropolitan Areas

The ability of the cross-city commuting labor force to obtain housing has a profound impact on the development of the housing market and the enhancement of social welfare, but whether cross-city commuting has facilitated housing purchases remains to be verified However, the research on whether cross-city commuting behavior promotes labor force housing purchase in metropolitan areas is still lacking, especially in China, where the culture of buying houses is relatively special. This article used field survey data from the 2023 China Metropolitan Area Occupation and Housing Status Sampling Survey to empirically analyze whether cross-city commuting has facilitated housing purchases within metropolitan areas. The analysis was conducted by constructing a baseline model, a mediation effect model, and a subsample regression model. The results show that the cross-city commuting facilitated housing purchase within metropolitan areas, and the location preference is to purchase a house with a distance of 20–40 km from the workplace, but the contribution of the cross-city commuting to multi-suite purchases is relatively low. Mechanism analysis shows that compared to the workers who work and live in peripheral areas or the workers who work and live in cores, intercity commuters are promoted to purchase housing by relatively higher income and inducement of the housing price gap. The above conclusions still hold after controlling potential endogeneity issues and in robustness tests. The research of this paper can provide a new perspective for alleviating the housing inequality in the metropolitan area.

The relationship between accessibility and land prices: A focus on accessibility to transit in the 15-min city

In the context of local residents’ travel activities, access to transportation facilities is crucial and a key factor in achieving the goals of a 15-min city. However, current research on accessibility and land prices seldom fully considers the exploration of the relationship between the two using machine learning models. In this study, we conduct an analysis based on land price and accessibility in Beijing. Firstly, factors such as accessibility, population density, land use types, the number of Points of Interest (POI), and housing prices are selected as independent variables for the model, with land price as the dependent variable. Secondly, the CatBoost model is employed to investigate the complex relationship between accessibility to transit and land prices. Finally, the study introduces the XGBoost model and the ordinary least squares (OLS) method for comparison, validating the effectiveness of the CatBoost model in studying the complex relationship between accessibility and land prices through the comparison of model performance evaluation metrics. A clear nonlinear relationship exists between public transportation accessibility and land prices. Accessibility to bus within a 15-min bicycle is positively associated with land price; its trend shows a sharp increase followed by a gradual increase, and then another sharp increase. Accessibility to metro within the multistage distance threshold walk has a roughly positive association with land price within a certain range. While accessibility to bus within a 15-min walk and accessibility to bus within the multistage distance threshold walk have a negative association with land price. The nonlinear patterns between the four accessibility variables and land prices differ and exhibit significant spatial heterogeneity. Both housing prices and population density positively correlate with land prices. Housing prices sharply increase, then gradually, while population density gradually rises, then sharply. This paper explores the relationship between the two, reinforcing research on the mutual influence of public transportation facilities and surrounding environmental elements. It provides a theoretical basis for promoting transit-oriented development (TOD) and city planning.

Stimulus Policy in Uncertain Times: Evidence on the Impact in Real Estate Markets

The COVID-19 pandemic introduced historic high levels of economic and policy uncertainty alongside historic accommodative monetary and fiscal policy. Economists have theorized that uncertainty can inhibit market participants’ response to policy stimulus. We empirically tested whether the behavior of house prices following the COVID-19 pandemic is associated with changes in policy and economic uncertainty by examining a sample of 111 housing markets in the United States. We found that while accommodative monetary policy and several rounds of fiscal policy providing direct payments to households were made throughout the pandemic, house prices increased most significantly only after the uncertainty had resolved, nearly a year after the first policy moves. These effects were strongest in higher quantiles of the house price distribution and uncorrelated with the level of cash transfers received in the local housing market.

A Critical Analysis on the Low Birth Rate Problem and the Effectiveness of Relevant Policy

This paper discusses the importance of the birth rate problem and the effectiveness of Chinas Three-Child policy. In order to efficiently elaborate problems, this paper analyses the issue from several perspectives. Firstly, a declining birth rate will have a negative impact on the global and domestic economic development due to the decrease in labour force. Secondly, this paper suggests that the key reason for this declining birth rate is the rising economic pressure on young people. This paper finds that China, Japan, and South Korea face the same low birth rate problem. Hence, this paper investigates the different wage levels and house prices among these East Asian countries and elaborates on the relationship associated with declining birth rates. Furthermore, this paper also discusses how to ensure the successful implementation of the Three-Child policy, and what effect the social welfare and the Three-Child policy can bring to help the society and the economy.

Entrance opportunity vs. academic performance: unpacking the nonlinear capitalization effects of multidimensional school qualities on housing sales and rental prices

It is widely documented that school quality has a capitalization effect on housing prices. However, existing literature has commonly reported a linear relationship between housing sales prices and the academic performance of nearby schools. This study challenges this prevalent understanding by examining how the entrance opportunity as an integral part of school quality affects both housing sales prices and housing rental prices, in response to the newly adopted point-based school enrolment policy in China whereby tenants are allowed to access local public schools but with fewer opportunities compared to homeowners. Employing machine learning algorithms, this study identifies which key school indicators and what ranges of these indicators have significant impacts on different housing sales and rental price segments in Shenzhen, China. Our results reveal that housing rental prices, particularly in the lower-priced segment, are more determined by the entrance opportunity than the academic performance, while the latter is the most important factor influencing housing sales prices. The nonlinear capitalization effect suggests that tenants and homebuyers are willing to pay more for school quality increases only within specific ranges, namely, from median to a relatively high level of school quality. These findings contribute to a more nuanced and updated understanding of the education capitalization effect and thus inform more inclusive and equitable urban planning and governance.

Spillovers of U.S. monetary policy shocks on housing prices in nine emerging economies and their stabilizing capital controls

Spillovers of U.S. monetary policy shocks on housing prices in nine emerging economies and their stabilizing capital controls