PurposeTo evaluate the value of five indicators in predicting OVCF through a retrospective case–control study, and explore the internal correlation of different indicators.MethodWe retrospectively enrolled patients over 50 years of age who had been subjected to surgery for fragility OVCF at China Japan Friendship Hospital from January 2021 to September 2023. Demographic characteristics, T-score based on dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA), CT-based Hounsfield unit (HU) value, vertebral bone quality (VBQ) score based on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), relative cross-sectional area (rCSA) and the rate of fat infiltration (FI) of paraspinal muscle were collected. A 1:1 age- and sex-matched, fracture-free control group was established from patients admitted to our hospital for lumbar spinal stenosis or lumbar disk herniation.ResultsA total of 78 patients with lumbar fragility OVCF were included. All the five indicators were significantly correlated with the occurrence of OVCFs. Logistic regression analysis showed that average HU value and VBQ score were significantly correlated with OVCF. The area under the curve (AUC) of VBQ score was the largest (0.89). There was a significantly positive correlation between average T-score, average HU value and average total rCSA. VBQ score was significantly positive correlated with FI.ConclusionVBQ score and HU value has good value in predicting of fragility OVCF. In addition to bone mineral density, we should pay more attention to bone quality, including the fatty signal intensity in bone and the FI in paraspinal muscle.