Can we screen opportunistically for low bone mineral density using CT scans of the shoulder and artificial intelligence?

Abstract

To evaluate whether the CT attenuation of bones seen on shoulder CT scans could be used to predict low bone mineral density (BMD) (osteopenia/osteoporosis), and to compare the performance of two machine learning models to predict low BMD. In this study, we evaluated 194 patients aged 50 years or greater (69.2 ± 9.1 years; 170 females) who underwent unenhanced shoulder CT scans and dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry within 1 year of each other between January 1, 2010, and December 31, 2021. The CT attenuation of the humerus, glenoid, coracoid, acromion, clavicle, first, second, and third ribs was obtained using 3D-Slicer. Support vector machines (SVMs) and k-nearest neighbours (kNN) were used to predict low BMD. DeLong test was used to compare the areas under the curve (AUCs). A CT attenuation of 195.4 Hounsfield Units of the clavicle had a sensitivity of 0.577, specificity of 0.781, and AUC of 0.701 to predict low BMD. In the test dataset, the SVM had sensitivity of 0.686, specificity of 1.00, and AUC of 0.857, while the kNN model had sensitivity of 0.966, specificity of 0.200, and AUC of 0.583. The SVM was superior to the CT attenuation of the clavicle (P = .003) but not better than the kNN model (P = .098). The CT attenuation of the clavicle was best for predicting low BMD; however, a multivariable SVM was superior for predicting low BMD. SVM utilizing the CT attenuations at many sites was best for predicting low BMD.