Hot Hand Research Articles

A Cold Shower for the Hot Hand Fallacy: Robust Evidence from Controlled Settings

Abstract The canonical hot hand fallacy result was recently reversed, based largely on a single statistic, and a data set that was underpowered for individual-level testing. Here we perform a more robust analysis, testing whether hot hand performance exists across (i) data sets: four different controlled shooting experiments, (ii) time: multiple sessions per individual spread across a six month gap, and (iii) various (improved) approaches to statistical testing. We find strong evidence of hot hand performance, both across data sets and within individuals across time. Moreover, in a study of beliefs, we find that expert observers can successfully predict which shooters get the hottest.

Sequential Decision Making in Beach Volleyball-A Mixed-Method Approach.

Which opponent player to sequentially serve to in beach volleyball is crucial given the advantage of the attacking team. The sequential choice theory was tested in three studies by analyzing allocation strategies based on the hot hand belief. Study 1 showed strong belief in the hot hand of national coaches. In Study 2, we analyzed Tokyo Olympics data to explore how base rates and sequential selection rates varied in an elite sample. When base rates of players differed by 0.25, low-performing players were frequently selected. In an experiment with elite athletes, Study 3A demonstrated accurate base-rate-difference recognition but low base-rate-change recognition. Study 3B found that the hot hand is believed to be important but is not often detected. We conclude that players and coaches follow predictions of the sequential choice theory and believe in the hot hand, but do not have a shared understanding of how to use it.

Can the hot hand phenomenon be modelled? A Bayesian hidden Markov approach

Can the hot hand phenomenon be modelled? A Bayesian hidden Markov approach

An analysis of the hot hand phenomenon in basketball and mid-range shooting

Does the Hot Hand phenomenon exist during basketball, especially in the NBA? This question has been controversial over the past years in the sports field. The enormous literature on the Hot Hand effect in basketball was conducted to investigate the Hot Hand hypothesis. This study analyzes this question using a novel data set of all mid-range shots from the 2023-2024 NBA regular season, combined with data on teams and players. A model was built based on the definition of the Hot Hand and potential influential variables such as distance and location to analyze the players' shot data. Supervised machine learning methods fit the model and measure its performance. The results suggest that mid-range shooting streaks do not affect making the next shot in game situations, indicating that the Hot Hand effect is not present in mid-range shooting situations.

Hot Hands in the Home Run Derby

We investigate the hot hand hypothesis using home run derby data for the 2016 to 2019 and 2021 to 2022 contests. In each contest, eight batters are seeded and go head to head for three rounds, progressing to the next round if they hit more home runs than their opponent. Unlike at bats taken during a game, the home run derby is a more controlled environment, and it provides swings on similar pitches without long breaks between swings. We find robust evidence that a “hot hand” exists in hitting home runs, where if a home run was hit on the previous swing the likelihood the player hits a home run on their current swing increases by approximately four percentage points, or a 10% increase. Furthermore, we find that longer streaks of home runs have even greater effects on the probability of hitting a home run on the current swing. Though even in streaks, hitting a home run on the previous pitch is necessary for a streak to improve the probability of a home run on the next pitch. JEL codes: Z20, Z29, D91.

Does Smart Money Believe in the Hot Hand? Evidence From Daily Fantasy Baseball

The behavior of informed traders, or “smart money,” in sports betting markets has long been of interest to researchers. In this paper, we focus specifically on the behavior of smart money in Major League Baseball (MLB) daily fantasy sports (DFS) contests to determine whether they avoid cognitive-behavioral biases to increase their expected earnings. Specifically, we investigate whether smart money avoids the hot hand bias, where individuals tend to overestimate the likelihood of success for players on a hot streak. Using a dataset of MLB DFS contests, we find that winning lineups have lower usage rates for players exhibiting the hot hand compared to losing lineups. This suggests that smart money identifies and fades the hot hand strategy to increase their expected earnings.

The Hot Hand in the NBA 3-Point Contest: The Importance of Location, Location, Location

We investigate the hot hand in the 1986-2019 NBA 3-Point Shooting Contests. Combining repeated shots in a location and shots across locations, the contest mimics game situations without many of the confounding factors. We find that a hot hand exists in the contest, but only for shots within the same location. Streaks of shots increase a hot hand, but only if the player makes his previous shot and has not moved locations. Our results suggest that while a hot hand does exist in basketball shooting, it is only present when shots are taken from the same shooting location.

"This is fine": the impact of blowouts on subsequent game performance in the National Hockey League (NHL).

Blowouts in sports involve large margins of victory or loss between teams and have long been perceived as influencing subsequent performances by athletes, coaches, fans, and other stakeholders. Under the backdrop of the hot hand ph enomenon, the current study explores the impact of blowouts on subsequent game performance in the National Hockey League (NHL). Specifically, we examine the potential carryover of a "hot (or cold) hand" on the subsequent game following a large win or loss. In our study, we defined blowouts as outlying goal differentials for regular season games (i.e., a difference of approximately 6 goals between teams in a single game based on 3 standard deviations from the mean goal differential during the sampled period). Using this criterion, data from 285 games over the 2005-06 to 2018-19 NHL regular seasons were gathered for analysis. We performed a series of multiple regressions using blowout goal differential as the main predictor, adjusting for location of the subsequent game, number of time zones from the home base city, whether the subsequent game was a back-to-back, and winning percentages of the team and opponent. Our results revealed no significant over or under performance by teams that either won through a blowout or those that lost by a blowout. Our findings are consistent with previous work in other and similar sports contexts. Practical applications and future directions for research are discussed.

Detecting the hot hand in amateur bowlers

ABSTRACT The hot hand, often invoked in describing athletic performances, refers to the notion that the probability of success is conditional upon recent success or failure. The present paper describes a method of identifying hot-hand behavior in which data from amateur 10-pin bowlers were fit with a model containing dynamically varying probabilities of success and failure (hot-hand model) and one with fixed probabilities (stable model). Full-season data of 27 out of 40 bowlers were found to be better fit by the hot-hand model. Following success, different bowlers showed increased or decreased probability of success (hot-hand behavior or underperformance, respectively). Analysis of the two halves of each bowler’s data indicated that the extent of hot-hand behavior or underperformance varied across the season. Overall, results suggest that the conditional probabilities that define performance can vary in an individual over time such that anticipation of hot-hand performance can be a reasonable expectation in certain circumstances.

Metacognitive Awareness and the Hot Hand: When Winning, No Amount of Awareness Will Have Strong Believers Avoid the Heuristic.

In some instances, such as in sports, individuals will cheer on the player with the "hot hand". But is the hot hand phenomenon a fallacy? The current research investigated (1) whether the hot hand fallacy (HHF) was related to risky decisions during a gambling scenario, and (2) whether metacognitive awareness might be related to optimal decisions. After measuring for baseline tendencies of using the hot hand heuristic, participants were presented with a series of prior card gambling results that included either winning streaks or losing streaks and asked to choose one of two cards: a good card or a bad card. In addition, we examined whether high metacognitive awareness-as measured by the ability to discriminate between correct and incorrect responses-would be negatively related to the risky decisions induced by the hot hand heuristic. The results showed that our predictions were partially supported. For winning streaks, individuals who had a weak tendency for using the heuristic exhibited fewer risky decisions with higher metacognitive awareness. However, those with a strong baseline tendency for using the hot hand showed no sign of decrease with metacognitive awareness. On the whole, the complex data suggest that further research on the HHF would be helpful for implementing novel ways of avoiding the fallacy, if needed.

Streakiness is not a theory: On “momentums” (hot hands) and their underlying mechanisms

Streakiness is not a theory: On “momentums” (hot hands) and their underlying mechanisms

Examination of Thermoplastic Polymers for Splicing and Bending

Materials of thermoplastic polymer when they break is usually thrown away, or is recycled which requires a long process. The purpose of this study is splicing the broken thermoplastic polymer using hot gas hand welding with different variations of welding wire/electrodes. Materials of thermoplastic polymer used are Polyethylene (PE), Polypropylene (PP), and Polyvinyl chloride (PVC) by using welding wire like the three materials. The method is carried out by using hot gas hand welding, there are two materials that cannot be connected, namely PE with PVC welding wire, and PP with PVC welding wire. The permeable liquid penetrant test is PP with PE welding wire, and PVC with PE welding wire. The longest elongation is PE with PE welding wire is 15.96% and the best of bending result is PVC with PVC welding wire reach value 181.2 kgf/mm2. The microstructure was all described in Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) observations.

Does success breed success? An investigation of momentum in elite recurve archery

We investigate the existence of momentum or the “hot hand” phenomenon in recurve archery, in which archers have three shots per set. We collected the performance of archers along with the control variable (player difference) and game data (set score difference, shooting order and game type). We set out to compare the outcome (bullseye, 10 points, probability) and performance (scores of the third shot) in a range of cases with the previous two shots. The most obvious finding to emerge from this study is the powerful evidence for positive momentum in recurve archery. The key finding that hitting the bullseye creates momentum and momentum leads to better performance has been confirmed as the “success breeds success” mechanism. Furthermore, the performance of the third shot is influenced by competitive ability and match importance (Olympic Games or not).

Hot hand or choking under pressure – Evidence from professional basketball

AbstractThis paper examines the existence of a hot hand and whether performing in front of a supportive audience creates a psychological pressure, which may impair performance. Using the task of free throwing in basketball competitions involving National Basketball Association (NBA) regular season and playoff games, I find strong evidence of a hot hand and a negative causal effect of the spectators on the probability of a successful shoot. The results support the hot hand fallacy and are in line with the hypothesis of choking under pressure when performing skill‐based tasks. Furthermore, contrary to what would be expected given the evidence in favor of a choking phenomenon, the effect of star players is insignificant. The hot hand effects for stars and non‐stars are the same in direction. Finally, efforts increase the performance, and the influence of hot hands and choking are not different between home and away shootings.

A longitudinal analysis of the hot hand and gambler’s fallacy biases

Abstract Researchers have found evidence of both hot hand and gambler’s fallacy biases in lottery number selection. Which of the two opposite effects is observed is often dependent upon the nature of the lottery game, the particular sample, the local culture of the participants, or the time transpired since the seed event. By observing hundreds of millions of lottery entries over 118 consecutive semiweekly drawings, we present evidence of both effects and their longitudinal properties. With respect to the selection of individual numbers, lottery participants tend to avoid recently selected winning numbers. This gambler’s fallacy effect diminishes and the number becomes increasingly ‘hot’ until it is selected again. With respect to winning number combinations, we found strong evidence of a small but persistent hot hand bias. This bias gradually diminishes over time, but remains detectable and highly consistent for a number of years.

The Bounce-Back Effect: Checkmating Competitors with the Cold Hand

Purpose: The paper investigates the effect of winning performance streaks (the hot hand) and losing performance streaks (the cold hand) on future performance. Performance streaks have many implications in business settings, such as selecting stocks, hedge fund performance, employee performance, introducing new products, and business strategy. Design/methodology/approach: The paper empirically analyzes the effects of performance steaks. It uses data from world blitz chess championships. Findings: Contrary to some studies in competitive sports, the empirical analysis supports neither the hot hand nor the cold hand hypothesis. Instead, a new effect is discovered; performance increases following a loss. We term this effect to be the bounce-back effect. Research limitation/implications: Future research may conduct field experiments to investigate which business environments are likely to generate this effect. Similar to other studies on performance streaks, the analysis does not control for motivation. Future research may also analyze the role of motivation for performance. Originality/value: The paper identifies a new effect previously not investigated in the literature. In addition, the paper contributes to this literature by looking into competitive blitz chess, where psychological factors are more important than physiological factors. If the bounce-back effect holds more generally in other settings, it might have implications for predicting the performance of employees in competitive business environments.

The Impact of Social Influence on the relationship between Behavioral Biases and Portfolio Diversification

The study examines the impact of behavioral biases on portfolio diversification of the investors trading at Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX). The study also explores the moderating role of social influence in the association between behavioral biases and portfolio diversification. Biases studied in this research are overconfidence and hot hand fallacy. Primary data is collected from investors of Pakistan Stock Exchange using a structured questionnaire. A representative sample of 430 investors trading at Pakistan Stock Exchange is used in this study. The findings of this research have shown that behavioral biases impact negatively the portfolio diversification. The finding of this research also highlights that social influence moderates the association between hot hand fallacy and portfolio diversification. However, findings showed that social influence do not moderate the association between overconfidence and portfolio diversification. This research will be helpful for investors as well as for the regulators. This research will enable the investors to recognize the effect of biases in their ability to diversify the investment portfolio. They will also consider the role that social influence play in the impact of these biases on portfolio diversification. On the other hand, this research also highlighted areas where regulators can educate investors. The study finds a strong support from Theory of Planned Behavior. Previously researches have studied the effect of biases on investment horizon, investment decisions or investment risk. This research is unique in a way that it examines the effect of biases on portfolio diversification.

‘Form is temporary, class is permanent’: identifying a longer-term hot hand in golf

Abstract The existence (or not) of the hot hand in sport continues to attract the attention of economists and psychologists. The paper presents analysis to test the belief prevalent in golfing circles that golfers go in and out of form quickly, while ‘class’ remains relatively constant. By going in and out of form, the golfer is effectively experiencing a longer-run hot hand: one can speculate that periods of confidence breed good performance. To test for the existence of ‘form’, we present a new application of the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck model and use it to identify both a golfer’s class and form when modelling golf scores. The findings suggest that short-term form does exist in golf and that this hot hand lasts for about four weeks.

Behavioral Biases in Daily Fantasy Baseball: The Case of the Hot Hand

Despite mixed evidence, sport participants and fans heavily believe in the existence of the hot hand. Prior literature examining NBA and NFL betting markets found betters were biased towards hot teams. Using a unique market and data set, this study identifies if the hot hand is prevalent in daily fantasy baseball contests, if there is a profitable hot hand selection strategy, and if consumers believe in its existence. Results show that while there is no evidence of a hot hand effect, and no evidence of a profitable hot hand strategy, consumers believe in and incorporate it in their lineup decisions.

They Don't Tell You

They Don't Tell You