Hot Hands in the Home Run Derby

Abstract

We investigate the hot hand hypothesis using home run derby data for the 2016 to 2019 and 2021 to 2022 contests. In each contest, eight batters are seeded and go head to head for three rounds, progressing to the next round if they hit more home runs than their opponent. Unlike at bats taken during a game, the home run derby is a more controlled environment, and it provides swings on similar pitches without long breaks between swings. We find robust evidence that a “hot hand” exists in hitting home runs, where if a home run was hit on the previous swing the likelihood the player hits a home run on their current swing increases by approximately four percentage points, or a 10% increase. Furthermore, we find that longer streaks of home runs have even greater effects on the probability of hitting a home run on the current swing. Though even in streaks, hitting a home run on the previous pitch is necessary for a streak to improve the probability of a home run on the next pitch. JEL codes: Z20, Z29, D91.