Host Contact Rates Research Articles

Nonrandom foraging and resource distributions affect the relationships between host density, contact rates and parasite transmission.

Nonrandom foraging can cause animals to aggregate in resource dense areas, increasing host density, contact rates and pathogen transmission, but when should nonrandom foraging and resource distributions also have density-independent effects? Here, we used a factorial experiment with constant resource and host densities to quantify host contact rates across seven resource distributions. We also used an agent-based model to compare pathogen transmission when host movement was based on random foraging, optimal foraging or something between those states. Nonrandom foraging strongly depressed contact rates and transmission relative to the classic random movement assumptions used in most epidemiological models. Given nonrandom foraging in the agent-based model and experiment, contact rates and transmission increased with resource aggregation and average distance to resource patches due to increased host movement in search of resources. Overall, we describe three density-independent mechanisms by which host behaviour and resource distributions alter contact rate functions and pathogen transmission.

Differential associations of horizontally and vertically transmitted symbionts on Ixodes ricinus behaviour and physiology

BackgroundIxodes ricinus ticks are infected with a large diversity of vertically and horizontally transmitted symbionts. While horizontally transmitted symbionts rely on a vertebrate host for their transmission, vertically transmitted symbionts rely more on the survival of their invertebrate host for transmission. We therefore hypothesized horizontally transmitted symbionts to be associated with increased tick activity to increase host contact rate and vertically transmitted symbionts to be associated with higher tick weight and lipid fraction to promote tick survival.MethodsWe used a behavioural assay to record the questing activity of I. ricinus ticks. In addition, we measured weight and lipid fraction and determined the presence of ten symbiont species in these ticks using qPCR, of which six were vertically transmitted and four horizontally transmitted.ResultsVertically transmitted symbionts (e.g. Midichloria mitochondrii) were associated with an increase in tick weight, whereas horizontally transmitted symbionts (e.g. Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato) were often associated with lower weight and lipid fraction of ticks. Moreover, horizontally transmitted symbionts (e.g. B. burgdorferi s.l.) were associated with increased tick activity, which may benefit pathogen transmission and increases tick-borne disease hazard.ConclusionsOur study shows that horizontally and vertically transmitted symbionts differentially influence the behaviour and physiology of I. ricinus and warrants future research to study the underlying mechanisms and effects on transmission dynamics of tick-borne pathogens.Graphical abstract

Once a reservoir, always a reservoir? Seasonality affects the pathogen maintenance potential of amphibian hosts.

Host species that can independently maintain a pathogen in a host community and contribute to infection in other species are important targets for disease management. However, the potential of host species to maintain a pathogen is not fixed over time, and an important challenge is understanding how within- and across-season variability in host maintenance potential affects pathogen persistence over longer time scales relevant for disease management (e.g., years). Here, we sought to understand the causes and consequences of seasonal infection dynamics in leopard frogs (Rana sphenocephala and Rana pipiens) infected with the fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd). We addressed three questions broadly applicable to seasonal host-parasite systems. First, to what degree are observed seasonal patterns in infection driven by temperature-dependent infection processes compared to seasonal host demographic processes? Second, how does seasonal variation in maintenance potential affect long-term pathogen persistence in multi-host communities? Third, does high deterministic maintenance potential relate to the long-term stochastic persistence of pathogens in host populations with seasonal infection dynamics? To answer these questions, we used field data collected over 3 years on >1400 amphibians across four geographic locations, laboratory and mesocosm experiments, and a novel mathematical model. We found that the mechanisms that drive seasonal prevalence were different from those driving seasonal infection intensity. Seasonal variation in Bd prevalence was driven primarily by changes in host contact rates associated with breeding migrations to and from aquatic habitat. In contrast, seasonal changes in infection intensity were driven by temperature-induced changes in Bd growth rate. Using our model, we found that the maintenance potential of leopard frogs varied significantly throughout the year and that seasonal troughs in infection prevalence made it unlikely that leopard frogs were responsible for long-term Bd persistence in these seasonal amphibian communities, highlighting the importance of alternative pathogen reservoirs for Bd persistence. Our results have broad implications for management in seasonal host-pathogen systems, showing that seasonal changes in host and pathogen vital rates, rather than the depletion of susceptible hosts, can lead to troughs in pathogen prevalence and stochastic pathogen extirpation.

Predation shifts coevolution toward higher host contact rate and parasite virulence.

Hosts can avoid parasites (and pathogens) by reducing social contact, but such isolation may carry costs, e.g. increased vulnerability to predators. Thus, many predator-host-parasite systems confront hosts with a trade-off between predation and parasitism. Parasites, meanwhile, evolve higher virulence in response to increased host sociality and consequently, increased multiple infections. How does predation shift coevolution of host behaviour and parasite virulence? What if predators are selective, i.e. predators disproportionately capture the sickest hosts? We answer these questions with an eco-coevolutionary model parametrized for a Trinidadian guppy-Gyrodactylus spp. system. Here, increased predation drives host coevolution of higher grouping, which selects for higher virulence. Additionally, higher predator selectivity drives the contact rate higher and virulence lower. Finally, we show how predation and selectivity can have very different impacts on host density and prevalence depending on whether hosts or parasites evolve, or both. For example, higher predator selectivity led to lower prevalence with no evolution or only parasite evolution but higher prevalence with host evolution or coevolution. These findings inform our understanding of diverse systems in which host behavioural responses to predation may lead to increased prevalence and virulence of parasites.

The predicted impact of resource provisioning on the epidemiological responses of different parasites.

Anthropogenic activities and natural events such as periodic tree masting can alter resource provisioning in the environment, directly affecting animals, and potentially impacting the spread of infectious diseases in wildlife. The impact of these additional resources on infectious diseases can manifest through different pathways, affecting host susceptibility, contact rate and host demography.To date however, empirical research has tended to examine these different pathways in isolation, for example by quantifying the effects of provisioning on host behaviour in the wild or changes in immune responses in controlled laboratory studies. Furthermore, while theory has investigated the interactions between these pathways, this work has focussed on a narrow subset of pathogen types, typically directly transmitted microparasites. Given the diverse ways that provisioning can affect host susceptibility, contact patterns or host demography, we may expect the epidemiological consequences of provisioning to vary among different parasite types, dependent on key aspects of parasite life history, such as the duration of infection and transmission mode.Focusing on an exemplar empirical system, the wood mouse Apodemus sylvaticus, and its diverse parasite community, we developed a suite of epidemiological models to compare how resource provisioning alters responses for a range of these parasites that vary in their biology (microparasite and macroparasite), transmission mode (direct, environmental and vector transmitted) and duration of infection (acute, latent and chronic) within the same host population.We show there are common epidemiological responses to host resource provisioning across all parasite types examined. In particular, the epidemiological impact of provisioning could be driven in opposite directions, depending on which host pathways (contact rate, susceptibility or host demography) are most altered by the addition of resources to the environment. Broadly, these responses were qualitatively consistent across all parasite types, emphasising the importance of identifying general trade‐offs between provisioning‐altered parameters.Despite the qualitative consistency in responses to provisioning across parasite types, we predicted notable quantitative differences between parasites, with directly transmitted parasites (those conforming to SIR and SIS frameworks) predicted to show the strongest responses to provisioning among those examined, whereas the vector‐borne parasites showed negligible responses to provisioning. As such, these analyses suggest that different parasites may show different scales of response to the same provisioning scenario, even within the same host population. This highlights the importance of knowing key aspects of host–parasite biology, to understand and predict epidemiological responses to provisioning for any specific host–parasite system.

The role of host phenology for parasite transmission

Phenology is a fundamental determinant of species distributions, abundances, and interactions. In host–parasite interactions, host phenology can affect parasite fitness due to the temporal constraints it imposes on host contact rates. However, it remains unclear how parasite transmission is shaped by the wide range of phenological patterns observed in nature. We develop a mathematical model of the Lyme disease system to study the consequences of differential tick developmental-stage phenology for the transmission of B. burgdorferi. Incorporating seasonal tick activity can increase B. burgdorferi fitness compared to continuous tick activity but can also prevent transmission completely. B. burgdorferi fitness is greatest when the activity period of the infectious nymphal stage slightly precedes the larval activity period. Surprisingly, B. burgdorferi is eradicated if the larval activity period begins long after the end of nymphal activity due to a feedback with mouse population dynamics. These results highlight the importance of phenology, a common driver of species interactions, for the fitness of a parasite.

Host density and habitat structure influence host contact rates and Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans transmission

Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans (Bsal) is an emerging invasive pathogen that is highly pathogenic to salamander species. Modeling infection dynamics in this system can facilitate proactive efforts to mitigate this pathogen's impact on North American species. Given its widespread distribution and high abundance, the eastern newt (Notophthalmus viridescens) has the potential to significantly influence Bsal epidemiology. We designed experiments to 1) estimate contact rates given different host densities and habitat structure and 2) estimate the probability of transmission from infected to susceptible individuals. Using parameter estimates from data generated during these experiments, we modeled infection and disease outcomes for a population of newts using a system of differential equations. We found that host contact rates were density-dependent, and that adding habitat structure reduced contacts. The probability of Bsal transmission given contact between newts was very high (>90%) even at early stages of infection. Our simulations show rapid transmission of Bsal among individuals following pathogen introduction, with infection prevalence exceeding 90% within one month and >80% mortality of newts in three months. Estimates of basic reproductive rate (R0) of Bsal for eastern newts were 1.9 and 3.2 for complex and simple habitats, respectively. Although reducing host density and increasing habitat complexity might decrease transmission, these management strategies may be ineffective at stopping Bsal invasion in eastern newt populations due to this species’ hyper-susceptibility.

Moving infections: individual movement decisions drive disease persistence in spatially structured landscapes

Understanding host–pathogen dynamics requires realistic consideration of transmission events that, in the case of directly transmitted pathogens, result from contacts between susceptible and infected individuals. The corresponding contact rates are usually heterogeneous due to variation in individual movement patterns and the underlying landscape structure. However, in epidemiological models, the roles that explicit host movements and landscape structure play in shaping contact rates are often overlooked.We adapted an established agent‐based model of classical swine fever (CSF) in wild boar Sus scrofa to investigate how explicit representation of landscape heterogeneity and host movement between social groups affects invasion and persistence probabilities. We simulated individual movement both phenomenologically as a correlated random walk (CRW) and mechanistically by representing interactions of the moving individuals with the landscape and host population structure.The effect of landscape structure on the probability of invasion success and disease persistence depended remarkably on the way host movement is simulated and the case fatality ratio associated with the pathogen strain. The persistence probabilities were generally low with CRW which ignores feedbacks to external factors. Although the basic reproduction number R0, a measure of the contagiousness of an infectious disease, was kept constant, these probabilities were up to eight times higher under mechanistic movement rules, especially in heterogeneous landscapes. The increased persistence emerged due to important feedbacks of the directed movement on the spatial variation of host density, contact rates and transmission events to distant areas.Our findings underscore the importance of accounting for spatial context and group size structures in eco‐epidemiological models. Our study highlights that the simulation of explicit, mechanistic movement behaviour can reverse predictions of disease persistence in comparison to phenomenological rules such as random walk approaches. This can have severe consequences when predicting the probability of disease persistence and assessing control measures to prevent outbreaks.

Typical epidemiology of respiratory virus infections in a Brazilian slum.

Host population size, density, immune status, age structure, and contact rates are critical elements of virus epidemiology. Slum populations stand out from other settings and may present differences in the epidemiology of acute viral infections. We collected nasopharyngeal specimens from 282 children aged ≤5 years with acute respiratory tract infection (ARI) during 2005 to 2006 in one of the largest Brazilian slums. We conducted real‐time reverse transcription‐polymerase chain reaction (RT‐PCR) for 16 respiratory viruses, nested RT‐PCR‐based typing of rhinoviruses (HRVs), and collected clinical symptoms. Viruses were common causes of respiratory disease; with ≥1 virus being detected in 65.2% of patients. We detected 15 different viruses during 1 year with a predominance of HRV (33.0%) and human respiratory syncytial virus (hRSV, 12.1%) infections, and a high rate of viral coinfections (28.3%). We observed seasonality of hRSV, HRV and human coronavirus infections, more severe symptoms in hRSV and influenza virus (FLU) infections and prolonged circulation of seven HRV clusters likely representing distinct serotypes according to genomic sequence distances. Potentially unusual findings included the absence of human metapneumovirus detections and lack of typical FLU seasonal patterns, which may be linked to the population size and density of the slum. Nonetheless, most epidemiological patterns were similar to other studies globally, suggesting surprising similarities of virus‐associated ARI across highly diverse settings and a complex impact of population characteristics on respiratory virus epidemiology.

Reviewing the Potential Vectors and Hosts of African Swine Fever Virus Transmission in the United States.

African swine fever virus (ASFV) continues to threaten global animal health and agricultural biosecurity. Mitigating the establishment of ASFV in the United States (U.S.) is contingent on (1) the identification of arthropod vectors and vertebrate hosts that are capable of viral maintenance and transmission in the U.S. and (2) knowledge of vector-host associations that may permit transmission. We aggregated data on vector competence, host competence and tick–host associations by systematic review of published articles and collection records to identify species that may support the invasion of ASFV in the U.S. Three species of competent soft ticks occur in the U.S., Ornithodoros coriaceus, Ornithodoros turicata, and Ornithodoros puertoricensis, however, vector competence for the majority of soft ticks in the U.S. remains unknown. Three species of competent vertebrate hosts currently occur in the U.S.: domestic pigs (Sus scrofa domesticus), feral hogs (Sus scrofa), and common warthogs (Phacochoerus africanus). Hierarchical hazard categories based on vector competence, tick–host contact rates, and vector abundance were used to semiquantitatively rank U.S. soft tick species by their relative risk for contributing to ASFV transmission to identify which soft tick species are a priority for future studies. High-risk vector and host species identified in this study can be used to focus ASFV risk assessments in the U.S., guide targeted surveillance and control strategies, and proactively prepare for an ASFV incursion event. Results indicate O. coriaceus, O. turicata, and O. puertoricensis demonstrate the highest relative risk for contributing to ASFV transmission in the U.S., however, many gaps in knowledge exist preventing the full evaluation of at least 30 soft tick species in the U.S. Further study is required to identify soft tick vectors that interact with feral swine populations, elucidate vector competence, and further understand the biology of soft tick species.

Impacts of heterogeneous host densities and contact rates on pathogen transmission in the Channel Island fox (Urocyon littoralis)

Diseases threaten wildlife populations worldwide and have caused severe declines resulting in host species being listed as threatened or endangered. The risk of a widespread epidemic is especially high when pathogens are introduced to naïve host populations, often leading to high morbidity and mortality. Prevention and control of these epidemics is based on knowledge of what drives pathogen transmission among hosts. Previous disease outbreaks suggest the spread of directly transmitted pathogens is determined by host contact rates and local host density. While theoretical models of disease spread typically assume a constant host density, most wildlife populations occur at a variety of densities across the landscape. We explored how spatial heterogeneity in host density influences pathogen spread by simulating the introduction and spread of rabies and canine distemper in a spatially heterogeneous population of Channel Island foxes (Urocyon littoralis), coupling fox density and contact rates with probabilities of viral transmission. For both diseases, the outcome of pathogen introductions varied widely among simulation iterations and depended on the density of hosts at the site of pathogen introduction. Introductions into areas of higher fox densities resulted in more rapid pathogen transmission and greater impact on the host population than if the pathogen was introduced at lower densities. Both pathogens were extirpated in a substantial fraction of iterations. Rabies was over five times more likely to go locally extinct when introduced at low host density sites than at high host-density sites, leaving an average of >99% of foxes uninfected. Canine distemper went extinct in >98% of iterations regardless of introduction site, but only after >90% of foxes had become infected. Our results highlight the difficulty in predicting the course of an epidemic, in part due to complex interactions between pathogen biology and host behavior, exacerbated by the spatial variation of most host populations.

Evaluating a mixed abiotic–biotic model for the distribution and host contact rates of an arthropod vector of pathogens: An example with Ixodes ricinus (Ixodidae)

Modelling the range of prominent vectors of pathogens is a common technique used for planning surveys, building exposure assessment estimations or addressing the impact of future climate scenarios. In most cases the recorded distribution of a target species is used together several environmental variables to capture its potential distribution, ignoring the availability of adequate hosts for the arthropod. In this study we used satellite-recorded, Fourier transformed, environmental variables of ground temperature and vegetation (NDVI) and a large dataset of records of the tick Ixodes ricinus and their hosts. The aim is to evaluate the influence of the contact rates of the ticks with the different hosts and how they impact on the raw, environmental-based distribution of the tick. These effects may alter the estimations of the distribution of the tick under future climate scenarios. This study demonstrated that the relative contribution of the hosts supporting the feeding of the tick life stages dramatically altered the expected distribution of the tick. In the study case, results support that both Passeriformes (Aves) and Rodentia-Soricomorpha contribute in different ways to the colonization of the tick along a large latitudinal gradient. However, Artiodactyla are the main supporters of the tick and enhance its presence in the fringe of its distribution area. Thus, complete data on the distribution of each host contributing to the tick's life cycle and their relative importance for the tick, should be included in the assessment of exposure by arthropods. Other results of the study suggested that more information could be obtained exploring the association of the arthropod to the variables in the environmental niche, instead of the classic approach based on a crude evaluation on the geographical space (maps).

Sheep breed and shearing influences attraction and blood-feeding behaviour of Culicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) on a UK farm

BackgroundCulicoides biting midges (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) are responsible for the biological transmission of arboviruses of international importance between ruminant livestock. These arboviruses include bluetongue virus (BTV) and Schmallenberg virus (SBV), which have emerged in unprecedented outbreaks in northern Europe. The impact of breed and shearing of sheep on Culicoides: host contact rates has not been investigated in detail and has the potential to influence arbovirus transmission and control measures employed to limit spread.MethodsAttraction of Culicoides to Hartline and Hartline/Suffolk cross-breed sheep was compared using 224 drop trap collections over 22 nights and 181 catches from sheared or unsheared Hartline/Suffolk ewes were made over 17 nights to compare Culicoides activity and rates of blood engorgement.ResultsA total of 31,314 Culicoides was collected in the two trials and females of the subgenus Avaritia represented over 96.9% of individuals collected. Attraction to breed was dependent upon species of Culicoides and physiological status, with a significantly greater number of individuals collected on the cross-breed sheep. Shearing of sheep did not significantly increase or decrease the number of Culicoides attracted but increased the rate of successful engorgement.ConclusionsBoth breed and shearing were shown to influence Culicoides biting rate on sheep. These data are useful in a direct context in understanding the likely impact of control measures against arboviruses including BTV and SBV and additionally in providing data from field-based studies to enable modelling exercises of arbovirus transmission and spread.

Sickness‐induced lethargy can increase host contact rates and pathogen spread in water‐limited landscapes

AbstractSevere infections in vertebrates commonly elicit sickness behaviour that includes anorexia and lethargy. Intuitively, sickness‐induced lethargy (SIL) should reduce contact among hosts. Therefore, for directly transmitted pathogens, sickness behaviour should reduce pathogen spread. However, there are indications that the relationship betweenSILand host contact rates can be reversed under specific social conditions.Here, we used an agent‐based model to investigate the possibility that the nonsocial environment can also impact the relationship betweenSILand host contact rates.Our results demonstrate that in water‐limited landscapes,SILcan increase host contact rates and associated pathogen spread. Based on our results, we hypothesize that a sickness‐induced increase in contact rates should be particularly likely and most pronounced in animals that are highly water dependent such as African buffaloes living in savanna environments.In the context of virulence evolution, our findings contradict the expectation that the direct transmission of pathogens generally favours the evolution of reduced pathogen virulence compared to vector‐ and water‐borne transmission. Instead, our findings suggest that the opposite effect is possible in water‐limited landscapes: compared to vector‐ and water‐borne transmission, direct transmission can favour the evolution of increased virulence.Our findings could be relevant in contexts other than direct transmission in water‐limited landscapes. For example, in addition to aggregating around limited water sources, sick individuals might aggregate at, or around, limited food sources, which could facilitate the spread of pathogens with different transmission modes. Therefore, sickness‐induced behavioural changes could critically affect the transmission of many pathogens in different environmental contexts.Aplain language summaryis available for this article.

Feeder density enhances house finch disease transmission in experimental epidemics.

Anthropogenic food provisioning of wildlife can alter the frequency of contacts among hosts and between hosts and environmental sources of pathogens. Despite the popularity of garden bird feeding, few studies have addressed how feeders influence host contact rates and disease dynamics. We experimentally manipulated feeder density in replicate aviaries containing captive, pathogen-naive, groups of house finches (Haemorhous mexicanus) and continuously tracked behaviours at feeders using radio-frequency identification devices. We then inoculated one bird per group with Mycoplasma gallisepticum (Mg), a common bacterial pathogen for which feeders are fomites of transmission, and assessed effects of feeder density on house finch behaviour and pathogen transmission. We found that pathogen transmission was significantly higher in groups with the highest density of bird feeders, despite a significantly lower rate of intraspecific aggressive interactions relative to the low feeder density groups. Conversely, among naive group members that never showed signs of disease, we saw significantly higher concentrations of Mg-specific antibodies in low feeder density groups, suggesting that birds in low feeder density treatments had exposure to subclinical doses of Mg. We discuss ways in which the density of garden bird feeders could play an important role in mediating the intensity of Mg epidemics.This article is part of the theme issue 'Anthropogenic resource subsidies and host-parasite dynamics in wildlife'.

R0: Host Longevity Matters

The basic reproduction ratio, R0, is a fundamental concept in epidemiology. It is defined as the total number of secondary infections brought on by a single primary infection, in a totally susceptible population. The value of R0 indicates whether a starting epidemic reaches a considerable part of the population and causes a lot of damage, or whether it remains restricted to a relatively small number of individuals. To calculate R0 one has to evaluate an integral that ranges over the duration of the infection of the host. This duration is, of course, limited by remaining host longevity. So, R0 depends on remaining host longevity and in this paper we show that for long-lived hosts this aspect may not be ignored for long-lasting infections. We investigate in particular how this epidemiological measure of pathogen fitness depends on host longevity. For our analyses we adopt and combine a generic within- and between-host model from the literature. To find the optimal strategy for a pathogen from an evolutionary point of view, we focus on the indicator R_0^{{opt}}, i.e., the optimum of R0 as a function of its replication and mutation rates. These are the within-host parameters that the pathogen has at its disposal to optimize its strategy. We show that R_0^{{opt}} is highly influenced by remaining host longevity in combination with the contact rate between hosts in a susceptible population. In addition, these two parameters determine whether a killer-like or a milker-like strategy is optimal for a given pathogen. In the killer-like strategy the pathogen has a high rate of reproduction within the host in a short time span causing a relatively short disease, whereas in the milker-like strategy the pathogen multiplies relatively slowly, producing a continuous small amount of offspring over time with a small effect on host health. The present research allows for the determination of a bifurcation line in the plane of host longevity versus contact rate that forms the boundary between the milker-like and killer-like regions. This plot shows that for short remaining host longevities the killer-like strategy is optimal, whereas for very long remaining host longevities the milker-like strategy is advantageous. For in-between values of host longevity, the contact rate determines which of both strategies is optimal.

Environmental‐mechanistic modelling of the impact of global change on human zoonotic disease emergence: a case study of Lassa fever

Summary Human infectious diseases are a significant threat to global human health and economies (e.g. Ebola, SARs), with the majority of infectious diseases having an animal source (zoonotic). Despite their importance, the lack of a quantitative predictive framework hampers our understanding of how spillovers of zoonotic infectious diseases into the human population will be impacted by global environmental stressors. Here, we create an environmental‐mechanistic model for understanding the impact of global change on the probability of zoonotic disease reservoir host–human spillover events. As a case study, we focus on Lassa fever virus (LAS). We first quantify the spatial determinants of LAS outbreaks, including the phylogeographic distribution of its reservoir host Natal multimammate rat (Mastomys natalensis) (LAS host). Secondly, we use these determinants to inform our environmental‐mechanistic model to estimate present‐day LAS spillover events and the predicted impact of climate change, human population growth and land use by 2070. We find phylogeographic evidence to suggest that LAS is confined to only one clade of LAS host (Western clade Mastomys natalensis) and that the probability of its occurrence was a major determinant of the spatial variation in LAS historical outbreaks (69·8%), along with human population density (20·4%). Our estimates for present‐day LAS spillover events from our environmental‐mechanistic model were consistent with observed patterns, and we predict an increase in events per year by 2070 from 195 125 to 406 725 within the LAS endemic western African region. Of the component drivers, climate change and human population growth are predicted to have the largest effects by increasing landscape suitability for the host and human–host contact rates, while land‐use change has only a weak impact on the number of future events. LAS spillover events did not respond uniformly to global environmental stressors, and we suggest that understanding the impact of global change on zoonotic infectious disease emergence requires an understanding of how reservoir host species respond to environmental change. Our environmental‐mechanistic modelling methodology provides a novel generalizable framework to understand the impact of global change on the spillover of zoonotic diseases.

Digging for answers: contributions of density- and frequency-dependent factors on ectoparasite burden in a social mammal.

Due to the density-dependent nature of parasite transmission parasites are generally assumed to constrain the evolution of sociality. However, evidence for a correlation between group size and parasite burden is equivocal, particularly for mammals. Host contact rates may be modified by mobility of the host and parasite as well as social barriers. In the current study, we used the common mole-rat (Cryptomys hottentotus hottentotus), a social subterranean rodent, as a model system to investigate the effect of host density and frequency of contact rates on ectoparasite burdens. To address these factors we used a study species that naturally varies in population densities and intergroup contact rates across its geographic range. We found that ectoparasite prevalence, abundance and species richness decreased with increasing host density at a regional scale. At the same time, measures of parasite burden increased with intergroup contact rates. Ectoparasite burdens decreased with colony size at the group level possibly as a result of increased grooming rates. Equating group size with population density might be too simplistic an approach when assessing parasite distributions in social mammals. Our data suggest that frequency-dependent mechanisms may play a much greater role at a population level than density-dependent mechanisms in determining parasite distributions in social species. We suggest that future studies should explicitly consider behavioural mechanisms that may affect parasite distribution.

Agent-based mathematical modeling as a tool for estimating Trypanosoma cruzi vector–host contact rates

The parasite Trypanosoma cruzi, spread by triatomine vectors, affects over 100 mammalian species throughout the Americas, including humans, in whom it causes Chagas’ disease. In the U.S., only a few autochthonous cases have been documented in humans, but prevalence is high in sylvatic hosts (primarily raccoons in the southeast and woodrats in Texas). The sylvatic transmission of T. cruzi is spread by the vector species Triatoma sanguisuga and Triatoma gerstaeckeri biting their preferred hosts and thus creating multiple interacting vector–host cycles. The goal of this study is to quantify the rate of contacts between different host and vector species native to Texas using an agent-based model framework. The contact rates, which represent bites, are required to estimate transmission coefficients, which can be applied to models of infection dynamics. In addition to quantitative estimates, results confirm host irritability (in conjunction with host density) and vector starvation thresholds and dispersal as determining factors for vector density as well as host–vector contact rates.

Linking anthropogenic resources to wildlife-pathogen dynamics: a review and meta-analysis.

Urbanisation and agriculture cause declines for many wildlife, but some species benefit from novel resources, especially food, provided in human-dominated habitats. Resulting shifts in wildlife ecology can alter infectious disease dynamics and create opportunities for cross-species transmission, yet predicting host–pathogen responses to resource provisioning is challenging. Factors enhancing transmission, such as increased aggregation, could be offset by better host immunity due to improved nutrition. Here, we conduct a review and meta-analysis to show that food provisioning results in highly heterogeneous infection outcomes that depend on pathogen type and anthropogenic food source. We also find empirical support for behavioural and immune mechanisms through which human-provided resources alter host exposure and tolerance to pathogens. A review of recent theoretical models of resource provisioning and infection dynamics shows that changes in host contact rates and immunity produce strong non-linear responses in pathogen invasion and prevalence. By integrating results of our meta-analysis back into a theoretical framework, we find provisioning amplifies pathogen invasion under increased host aggregation and tolerance, but reduces transmission if provisioned food decreases dietary exposure to parasites. These results carry implications for wildlife disease management and highlight areas for future work, such as how resource shifts might affect virulence evolution.