Abstract

Phenology is a fundamental determinant of species distributions, abundances, and interactions. In host–parasite interactions, host phenology can affect parasite fitness due to the temporal constraints it imposes on host contact rates. However, it remains unclear how parasite transmission is shaped by the wide range of phenological patterns observed in nature. We develop a mathematical model of the Lyme disease system to study the consequences of differential tick developmental-stage phenology for the transmission of B. burgdorferi. Incorporating seasonal tick activity can increase B. burgdorferi fitness compared to continuous tick activity but can also prevent transmission completely. B. burgdorferi fitness is greatest when the activity period of the infectious nymphal stage slightly precedes the larval activity period. Surprisingly, B. burgdorferi is eradicated if the larval activity period begins long after the end of nymphal activity due to a feedback with mouse population dynamics. These results highlight the importance of phenology, a common driver of species interactions, for the fitness of a parasite.

Highlights

  • Behaviors or traits that vary seasonally, termed phenology in the ecological literature, impact both the type and strength of ecological interactions within populations and communities (Miller-Rushing et al 2010; Bewick et al 2016; Paull and Johnson 2014; Barber et al 2016; Burkett-Cadena et al 2011)

  • The parasite reproduces sexually within the bird who defecate parasite eggs that infect juvenile fish (Clarke 1954). This disease system occurs in North American lakes that freeze over winter, causing both fish reproduction and bird migration to be temporally restricted within each year

  • Phenology is a fundamental component of all ecological interactions

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Summary

Introduction

Behaviors or traits that vary seasonally, termed phenology in the ecological literature, impact both the type and strength of ecological interactions within populations and communities (Miller-Rushing et al 2010; Bewick et al 2016; Paull and Johnson 2014; Barber et al 2016; Burkett-Cadena et al 2011). L (T) represents the total larval population to emerge in year T, as determined by the number of nymphs that have successfully fed in the previous year, T − 1 , survived to adulthood, and reproduced (given by equation (18) below). R0 of a rare parasite infection is given as follows: R0 = This R0 accounts for transmission between cohorts of ticks through intermediate mouse hosts in a given feeding season. The fitness of B. burgdorferi, quantified by the basic reproductive number ( R0 ), is greatest when larval activity is concentrated around the peak in the mouse infection prevalence, increasing the probability that each larva will feed on an infected mouse The fitness of B. burgdorferi, quantified by the basic reproductive number ( R0 ), is greatest when larval activity is concentrated around the peak in the mouse infection prevalence, increasing the probability that each larva will feed on an infected mouse (Fig. 3A. and Fig. 4A)

Results
Discussion
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