Abstract
Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans (Bsal) is an emerging invasive pathogen that is highly pathogenic to salamander species. Modeling infection dynamics in this system can facilitate proactive efforts to mitigate this pathogen's impact on North American species. Given its widespread distribution and high abundance, the eastern newt (Notophthalmus viridescens) has the potential to significantly influence Bsal epidemiology. We designed experiments to 1) estimate contact rates given different host densities and habitat structure and 2) estimate the probability of transmission from infected to susceptible individuals. Using parameter estimates from data generated during these experiments, we modeled infection and disease outcomes for a population of newts using a system of differential equations. We found that host contact rates were density-dependent, and that adding habitat structure reduced contacts. The probability of Bsal transmission given contact between newts was very high (>90%) even at early stages of infection. Our simulations show rapid transmission of Bsal among individuals following pathogen introduction, with infection prevalence exceeding 90% within one month and >80% mortality of newts in three months. Estimates of basic reproductive rate (R0) of Bsal for eastern newts were 1.9 and 3.2 for complex and simple habitats, respectively. Although reducing host density and increasing habitat complexity might decrease transmission, these management strategies may be ineffective at stopping Bsal invasion in eastern newt populations due to this species’ hyper-susceptibility.
Highlights
Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans (Bsal) is an emerging invasive pathogen that is highly pathogenic to salamander species
The eastern newt is as susceptible to Bsal infection as the fire salamander[16,33]; this species could play a major role in the epidemiology of Bsal if the pathogen is introduced to North America
Our epidemiological model confirms that the eastern newt will likely play a major role in the epidemiology of Bsal if the pathogen emerges in North America[33]
Summary
Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans (Bsal) is an emerging invasive pathogen that is highly pathogenic to salamander species. Initial model simulations using European fire salamanders predict Bsal outbreaks at low host densities and rapid spread of the pathogen across a landscape, suggesting that mitigation efforts should focus on preventing pathogen introduction and transmission within populations[29]. These simulations are useful for informing disease response options for the fire salamander, they may not be translatable to North American ecosystems, where susceptible species have different life history strategies[30,31,32]. The eastern newt is as susceptible to Bsal infection as the fire salamander[16,33]; this species could play a major role in the epidemiology of Bsal if the pathogen is introduced to North America
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
