Home Team Research Articles

Boldness-Recalibration for Binary Event Predictions

Probability predictions are essential to inform decision making across many fields. Ideally, probability predictions are (i) well calibrated, (ii) accurate, and (iii) bold, that is, spread out enough to be informative for decision making. However, there is a fundamental tension between calibration and boldness, since calibration metrics can be high when predictions are overly cautious, that is, non-bold. The purpose of this work is to develop a Bayesian model selection-based approach to assess calibration, and a strategy for boldness-recalibration that enables practitioners to responsibly embolden predictions subject to their required level of calibration. Specifically, we allow the user to pre-specify their desired posterior probability of calibration, then maximally embolden predictions subject to this constraint. We demonstrate the method with a case study on hockey home team win probabilities and then verify the performance of our procedures via simulation. We find that very slight relaxation of calibration probability (e.g., from 0.99 to 0.95) can often substantially embolden predictions when they are well calibrated and accurate (e.g., widening hockey predictions’ range from 26%–78% to 10%–91%).

Investigating the influence of fans on home advantage outcomes in association football across Europe

ABSTRACT Fan support has long been stated as one of the major contributors to the home advantage which football teams enjoy across Europe; whereby fans motivate the home team to increase performance levels, and in some cases, inadvertently cause referees to subconsciously make decisions in favour of the home team. With the naturally created experimental design by the COVID-19 pandemic, the unique opportunity arose to analyse the influence of fans on these home advantage outcomes. Mixed-effects models were used while controlling for available confounds. It was observed that home teams won fewer points and were less dominant without the support of their fans; while referees called more fouls against, and produced more yellow cards for home teams without fans present. However, these decisions were dependent on team dominance in a match. The findings reinforced social theories and also provided greater insights into the home advantage phenomenon.

The Night Owl Effect in the Premier League

A novel dataset of all the fixtures in the English Premier League’s 2021/2022 season is used to analyse the impact which kick-off time has on home advantage. Results show that late kickoffs significantly increase home advantage. During late kick-offs, home teams are significantly more likely to win fixtures and win fixtures by greater margins compared to early kick-offs. Furthermore, away teams are significantly less likely to keep clean sheets in middle-of-the-day and late kick-offs compared to early kick-offs. The night owl effect is proposed as a term to refer to this finding where late kick-offs facilitate increased home advantage.

Addressing infection prevention and control in Alabama through the long-term care strike team.

The COVID-19 pandemic exposed the lack of infection prevention and control (IPC) infrastructure among long-term care facilities (LTCFs) in the United States; the situation in Alabama is particularly dire with LTCFs receiving some of the lowest quality ratings in the country. Alabama's LTCFs continue to be challenged by frequent staff turnover, vaccine hesitancy, and reluctance to embrace new Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommendations such as enhanced barrier precautions. However, the American Rescue Plan of 2021 made funds available to states through a CDC Epidemiology and Laboratory (ELC) Cooperative Agreement to promote IPC system improvement, including the creation of the Alabama Nursing Home and Long-Term Care Strike Team (LTC Strike Team). In this article, we reviewed preliminary data from Alabama for the first year of the 2-year cooperative agreement cycle (2022--2023). Data included activity tracking by Infection Preventionists (IPs) and evaluations submitted voluntarily by LTCFs upon completion of trainings and/or direct services provided by the LTC Strike Team. Results indicated a significant need for IPC training among LTCFs and a high level of satisfaction with the services provided by IPs. Despite successes, it is unclear if future funding will be available to support long-term sustainability efforts.

Evaluating the pinnacle of football match key statistics as in‐play information for determining the match outcome of Europe's foremost leagues

AbstractObjectivesThe purpose of this study is to evaluate the pinnacle of football match key statistics as in‐play information for determining the match outcome of Europe's foremost leagues, namely those in England, Scotland, Spain, Germany, Italy, France, Portugal, Belgium, Turkey, the Netherlands, and Greece. The study analyzed a sample of 98,849 matches across all sports leagues from the 2002/2003 to 2023/2024 seasons.MethodsThe techniques employed include the zero‐inflated Poisson regression model and generalized ordered logit/partial proportional odds (gologit/ppo) models.ResultsThe findings revealed that, for both home and away teams, the number of shots, shots on target, corners, and the changes from one season to another, as well as the occurrence of Covid‐19, are factors that encourage goal scoring. On the other hand, fouls committed, yellow cards, and red cards act as limiting factors for goal scoring. The effects are higher in the full‐time play than in the halftime. However, the impact of the number of goals scored in the last match and the effect of Covid‐19 are negligible for the home and away teams, respectively. Moreover, when comparing the impacts specifically within home teams and within away teams, it was found that yellow and red cards are highly detrimental, while the positive impact of shots on target surpasses these and other factors in home teams. In contrast, for away teams, the negative impact of yellow and red cards is more significant than any other factor.ConclusionFootball match key statistics including the number of shots, shots on target, corners, change from one season to another, fouls committed, yellow cards, red cards, last match outcome, and occurrence of Covid‐19 are essential determinants of the match outcome whether a team is at home or way but the impact is higher during the second half of the play.

They didn’t know what they got till the crowd was gone

This paper revisits the relationship between Covid-19-related full and partial absence of stadium attendance and match outcomes, analyzing five seasons of the top tier of professional football in the Netherlands. Empty stadiums caused home advantages to disappear completely due to home teams scoring fewer goals. Additionally, in empty stadiums, away teams received fewer yellow cards. This persisted even when stadiums were filled to a maximum of one-third of their capacity. Under these circumstances, there were no effects on team performance. Thus, it is improbable that referee decisions were the intermediary factor influencing team performance. Players of home teams appear to have been directly and adversely affected by the absence of stadium crowds.

Home Advantage and Away Disadvantage of Teams in Champions League: Is It Valid for All Teams and Against Every Opponent?

The home advantage (HA) is a robust phenomenon in soccer whereby the home team wins more games and scores more goals than the away team. Similarly, away disadvantage (AD) means that an away team loses more games or scores less goals than the home team. This study examines the HA and AD values of teams in the UEFA-Champions League, covering the seasons from 2003/2004 to 2021/2022, a total of 2,344 matches. Controlling for team ability differences, the study revealed significant variations in HA, ranging from 32.1% to 79.5%, while AD values ranged from 45.1% to 71.9%. The study further found that HA remained consistent for teams across both the group and knockout stages, while AD varied between these stages. Furthermore, the results suggest that, for certain teams, HA is predominantly manifested against weaker opponents, and the impact of opponent strength on HA and AD is limited.

National expert consensus on home-administered oncologic therapies in Spain.

The diagnosis and treatment of cancer impose a significant emotional and psychological burden on patients, families, and caregivers. Patients undergo several interventions in a hospital setting, and the increasing number of patients requiring extended care and follow-up is driving the demand for additional clinical resources to address their needs. Hospital at Home (HaH) teams have introduced home-administered oncologic therapies that represent a new model of patient-centered cancer care. This approach can be integrated with traditional models and offers benefits to both patients and healthcare professionals (HCPs). Home-administered treatment programs have been successfully piloted globally, demonstrated as a preferred option for most patients and a safe alternative that could reduce costs and hospital burden. The document aims to establish the minimum recommendations for the home administration of oncologic therapies (ODAH) based on a national expert agreement. The expert panel comprised seven leading members from diverse Spanish societies and three working areas: clinical and healthcare issues, logistical and administrative issues, and economic, social, and legal issues. The recommendations outlined in this article were obtained after a comprehensive literature review and thorough discussions. This document may serve as a basis for the future development of home-administered oncologic therapy programs in Spain. .

Machine learning prediction of factors affecting Major League Baseball (MLB) game attendance: algorithm comparisons and macroeconomic factor of unemployment

PurposeThis study aims to identify an automated machine learning algorithm with high accuracy that sport practitioners can use to identify the specific factors for predicting Major League Baseball (MLB) attendance. Furthermore, by predicting spectators for each league (American League and National League) and division in MLB, the authors will identify the specific factors that increase accuracy, discuss them and provide implications for marketing strategies for academics and practitioners in sport.Design/methodology/approachThis study used six years of daily MLB game data (2014–2019). All data were collected as predictors, such as game performance, weather and unemployment rate. Also, the attendance rate was obtained as an observation variable. The Random Forest, Lasso regression models and XGBoost were used to build the prediction model, and the analysis was conducted using Python 3.7.FindingsThe RMSE value was 0.14, and the R2 was 0.62 as a consequence of fine-tuning the tuning parameters of the XGBoost model, which had the best performance in forecasting the attendance rate. The most influential variables in the model are “Rank” of 0.247 and “Day of the week”, “Home team” and “Day/Night game” were shown as influential variables in order. The result was shown that the “Unemployment rate”, as a macroeconomic factor, has a value of 0.06 and weather factors were a total value of 0.147.Originality/valueThis research highlights unemployment rate as a determinant affecting MLB game attendance rates. Beyond contextual elements such as climate, the findings of this study underscore the significance of economic factors, particularly unemployment rates, necessitating further investigation into these factors to gain a more comprehensive understanding of game attendance.

Home Advantage in the top Czech Hockey League

Home advantage in sport has long been established as an important factor in determining the outcome of a match. According to this phenomenon, the home team should win more games and score more goals than the away team. Home advantage is a very complex phenomenon that is influenced by many different factors. One possible explanation is that the home crowd supports the home team's performance and also causes the referee to be under pressure and favor the home team. The aim of this paper is to quantify the home advantage in the Czech top hockey league. Using statistical analysis, the number of points scored, goals scored, shots taken, penalties awarded and penalty minutes in the 2019/20 season were compared. A total of 364 matches were analysed. The results showed the existence of a home advantage in the Czech top hockey league in the 2019/20 season. Implications for sport practice and possible directions for future research are discussed.

Supporting care homes with behaviour that challenges: A psychosocial approach

The Greenwich and Bexley dementia Care Home Team is a novel test-and-learn service designed to upskill care home staff and support residents living with dementia with behaviours that challenge. Clinical outcomes and qualitative feedback suggest a positive impact on care home staffs’ self-efficacy in the application of biopsychosocial approaches in reducing or understanding behaviours that challenge. Limitations and future directions are discussed.

Does video assistant referee technology change the magnitude and direction of home advantages and referee bias? A proof-of-concept study

BackgroundThis study analyzed how Video Assistant Referee (VAR), introduced to improve the accuracy of referee decisions in football, changes the magnitude and direction of home advantage and referee bias in the Turkish Super League.MethodsWe analyzed points, goals, yellow cards and red cards, fouls, penalties, and offside data from 1,838 matches played in the Turkish Super League with and without VAR. Two-sample t-tests and two one-sided tests analysis were applied to determine the differences between the home and away team data between the seasons played with and without VAR.ResultsThe findings revealed that the only variable that changed significantly after VAR was implemented was fouls, which decreased for both home (p <.001; d = 0.56, medium effect) and away teams (p <.001; d = 0.69, medium effect). The results also indicated that, with or without VAR, home teams had an advantage over away teams in points and goals, and away teams faced more referee bias regarding yellow cards and penalties (against).ConclusionsAlthough this study shows that VAR does not significantly impact the HA and referee bias of football matches, nevertheless, teams should be more aware that bias is reduced when playing away. In addition, this study offers some practical applications that can help football players, coaches, and match officials better understand VAR technology’s effects on HA and referee bias.

A Multiple Case Study Exploring Person‐Centred Care in Care Homes

Background: There are 14,228 care homes in England with a population of approximately 372,035 residents, many of whom are living with frailty or multiple and complex comorbidities. Policy and international literature advocate that care homes provide high‐quality person‐centred care that meets each person’s specific needs. This study aims to provide an exploration of person‐centred care in care homes in the South West of England from the perspective of all those involved.Methods: A qualitative multiple case study design was used across seven care homes in a region of South West England. Semistructured interviews were conducted with 61 participants (residents, family and health and care professionals). Nonparticipant observations were undertaken in communal areas to understand the practices and cultures of the care homes. All data were analysed using reflexive thematic analysis.Findings: The findings are presented as six themes, they are adjusting to the transition into a care home; people at the centre of care; the place we call home with the people we call family; working across the boundaries of care; supporting, valuing and empowering care home teams; and managing complex and challenging moments of care.Conclusion: This study demonstrates a whole system understanding of person‐centred care across seven care homes. The main components of person‐centred care appear to be relational. These relationships take place in cultures and systems that are complex and challenging with care boundaries that need to be navigated. Navigating these care boundaries requires a people‐centred care approach built on partnerships and mutual respect.

Effectiveness of sponsorship type, sport team identification, team support and congruence

PurposeThe aim of this paper is to investigate the interaction effect that sponsor-team congruence and team fan (home/rival team) have on the influence of different types of sports sponsorship (joint, corporate social responsibility [CSR]-linked and conventional sponsorship) on fans' attitudes and purchase intentions toward the sponsor.Design/methodology/approachTwo experimental studies were conducted on 391 and 297 participants. The data gathered underwent analysis through five multivariate general linear model analyses.FindingsThe study found that CSR-linked sponsorship had the strongest positive impact and the weakest negative impact on the attitude and purchase intention of home team supporters and the attitude of rival team supporters. Nonetheless, the sponsor-team congruence did not significantly moderate the relationship. Additionally, the research demonstrated that the fan identity of both home and rival teams moderates the impact of sports sponsorships on attitude and purchase intention.Originality/valuePrevious research has studied the effectiveness of sponsorship format types independently. This is the first research comparing sponsorship formats regarding fan type and congruence.

The Care Home Independent Pharmacist Prescriber Study (CHIPPS): development and implementation of an RCT to estimate safety, effectiveness and cost-effectiveness

Background Medicine prescribing, monitoring and administration in care homes can be significantly enhanced. Effective interventions to improve pharmaceutical care and resident outcomes are required. The enablement of pharmacists to prescribe provides an opportunity for pharmacist independent prescribers to assume responsibility for improving pharmaceutical care, medication-related outcomes and resident safety whilst reducing general practitioner workload. Objective(s) To determine the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of pharmacist independent prescribing in care homes. Design Development work was undertaken through five work packages before the delivery of the definitive trial. Triads of pharmacist independent prescribers, care home and general practice with responsibility over 20 care home residents were recruited and cluster randomised to intervention or usual care for 6 months. Researchers were blinded at recruitment stage only. Recruitment of 880 residents was required to provide 80% statistical power, to show a 21% reduction in falls over 6 months, assuming 20% attrition. Randomisation was undertaken electronically at triad level, stratified by geographical area. Intention-to-treat analysis undertaken using a negative binomial model. Parameters were estimated using a generalised estimating equation approach. Costs were captured from an NHS perspective. Quality of life (EuroQol; five domain; five level) was collected by proxy to enable cost/quality-adjusted life-year estimation. A concurrent process evaluation was performed. Safety was monitored through a review of pharmacist independent prescriber activities, independent concerns reporting and review of adverse events. Participants Forty-nine triads of general practitioners, pharmacist independent prescribers and care homes were recruited with 454 residents allocated to the intervention arm and 428 to the control arm. Intervention Medication review and care planning, medication reconciliation, staff training, support with care home medication-related procedures, deprescribing and authorisation of monthly prescriptions. Main outcome measure Fall rate per person over 6 months. Results Data for 449 intervention and 427 control residents available for final analysis. The 6-month fall rate ratio in favour of intervention was 0.91 (95% confidence interval 0.66 to 1.26; p=0.58). No significant difference in secondary outcomes was identified except Drug Burden Index (rate ratio 0.83, 95% confidence interval 0.75 to 0.92; p&lt;0.001). No harms were identified. One quarter of medication-related interventions were associated with a reduced risk of falls. The intervention was positively received. Limitations Participant self-selection bias may have affected the generalisability of findings. Open-label cluster randomised controlled trial limited by 6-month follow-up. Potential ceiling effect due to concurrent pharmacist-led interventions. Falls potentially insufficiently proximal to the intervention. Conclusions To enhance effectiveness and acceptance of the proposed model, effective integration into care home and general practitioner teams was identified as a central requirement. A core outcome set and a training package were developed. The final model of care, whilst being safe and well received and resulting in a reduction in drug burden, demonstrated no improvement in the primary outcome of falls. With no improvement in quality-adjusted life-years identified, the pharmacist independent prescriber intervention was not estimated to be cost-effective. Future work To develop and evaluate better models of care for enhancing medication outcomes and safety in care homes or re-test with a longer intervention and follow-up period and a stronger primary outcome. Trial registration This trial is registered as ISRCTN10663852, definitive trial: ISRCTN17847169. Study registration This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD20150907. Funding This award was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Programme Grants for Applied Research programme (NIHR award ref: RP-PG-0613-20007) and is published in full in Programme Grants for Applied Research; Vol. 11, No. 10. See the NIHR Funding and Awards website for further award information.

Re-Evaluating the Role of Attendance on Home Advantage: Evidence From an International Rugby Tournament

Abstract: Home advantage has been documented in many sports. It is hypothesized that higher attendance, likely dominated by home-team supporters, can be a source of this advantage, either through influence on match officials or by spurring the home team to greater efforts relative to the away team. We examine this latter hypothesis using a dataset of 1,030 matches over eight seasons, 2012/2013 to 2019/2020, of the Pro14, one of the three major European rugby union leagues. Our results initially display strong evidence of home advantage. However, once we control for team quality, home advantage is significantly reduced. Further, our results also indicate that home advantage is not explained by the impact of attendances on team performance (effort).

Using volunteers to improve access to community rehabilitation in palliative care: the St Christopher's Living Well at Home Team.

UK hospices often provide outpatient rehabilitation services for people with advanced progressive illness. However, some people are unable to travel, leading to inequity in rehabilitation access. The Living Well at Home Team (LWAHT) at St Christopher's Hospice aimed to evaluate whether using volunteers to support rehabilitation in peoples' homes improved the reach of rehabilitation for people living in underserved localities and if it supported people to optimise their functional independence. This service improvement project evaluated hospice rehabilitation uptake during the implementation of volunteer-supported community rehabilitation. Following assessment by an LWAHT therapist, eligible people were matched with a trained volunteer who supported four to eight rehabilitation sessions in the person's home. The evaluation assessed uptake of the rehabilitation sessions. Mobility, wellbeing, and goal attainment outcomes were assessed by the Life-Space Assessment (LSA), General Health Questionnaire (GHQ), and Goal Attainment Scale (GAS), respectively. In the first year, 183 patients were referred to the LWAHT; 123 were assessed and 96 received rehabilitation including 56 who were matched with a volunteer. Following volunteer support, patients reported significant improvements in mobility [LSA median 20 (IQR, 3.5-27.8)], general health [GHQ -2 (-5.25 to 0)], and achievement of goals [GAS T-score +8 (0-18.4)]. It was feasible to support community rehabilitation using hospice volunteers for people with advanced progressive illness. The LWAHT service also increased the uptake of hospice centre-based rehabilitation. Further work should test efficacy and identify patients requiring additional professional input. This is the first known study reporting on the use of trained rehabilitation volunteers to extend the reach of hospice rehabilitation services. People with limited access to the hospice, because of geographical location or personal circumstances, valued and benefited from tailored rehabilitation supported by the volunteers in their own homes.

Home advantage in elimination games and the NBA play-in tournament

Some of the most exciting contests in US professional basketball are the win-or-gohome, game seven’s in the playoffs. The National Basketball Association has instituted a play-in tournament for the 2021 and 2022 playoffs consisting solely of one-game series, which has sparked considerable controversy among the league’s executives and players. To understand the effect of the play-in tournament on playoff participation, we developed a model to determine the home-court advantage in elimination games. Various solution techniques—including the log-binomial and robust Poisson regression models—are used to estimate the model parameters using elimination-game data from the 1955–2019 playoffs. These models are appropriate alternatives to logistic regression as probabilistic classifiers with dichotomous response variables and provide risk ratios (in terms of probabilities) that are easier to interpret for someone unfamiliar with odds ratios. Results indicate that the home-court advantage for equally matched teams would be in the 0.50 to 0.55 range; when considering the games are played at the home arena of the team with the better regular-season record, the home team is expected to win 65 per cent of elimination playoff games. These models can be used to estimate the likelihood of each play-in participant making the playoffs.

Moral Support and Performance

This study presents unique empirical evidence on the importance of moral support for performance. We take advantage of an unusual change in Argentinean football legislation. In August 2013, as a matter of national security, the Argentinean government forced all teams in the first division to play their games with only home team supporters. Supporters of visiting teams were not allowed to be in stadiums during league games. We estimate the effect of this exogenous variation of supporters on team performance and find that visiting teams are on average about 20% more likely to lose without the presence of their supporters. As a counterfactual experiment, we run the analysis using contemporaneous cup games, where the visiting team supporters were allowed to attend, and find no effect of the ban on those games. Moreover, the ban does not seem to bias the decisions of referees, the lineups, or the market value of the teams, suggesting that the effect on team performance is due to the loss of moral support rather than other factors. Finally, we find that moral support is more relevant when there is equal power between the two teams, suggesting that moral support compensates the power of monetary resources. This paper provides a proof of concept of moral support as an important nonmonetary resource, even in settings with high monetary incentives. This paper was accepted by Yan Chen, behavioral economics and decision analysis. Supplemental Material: The e-companion and data are available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2021.02906 .

A Mere Fan Effect on Home-Court Advantage

The existence of a home-court advantage is one of the most durable empirical patterns in all of sports. Yet, the mechanisms explaining its strength and persistence remain a mystery in large part because of well-known challenges with statistical identification. We use attendance restrictions in place during the 2020–2021 National Basketball Association regular season as an instrument in order to identify the effect of fans and crowd size on home-court advantage. We show that home teams win by [Formula: see text] points, on average, when fans are present at games compared with [Formula: see text] points when no fans are present. This equates to winning approximately 2.2 additional home games over the course of a regular season. In fixed effects instrumental variables regression models, we estimate that the marginal effect of an additional one thousand fans on home-court advantage is [Formula: see text] points. We conclude that the mere presence of home fans, on its own, explains a larger share of home-court advantage than previously thought.