Historical Track Research Articles

The use of aircraft tracking GPS data to develop models of the use of airtankers in forest fire management

The Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry uses amphibious airtankers to help control forest fires in the province of Ontario. Their airtankers are based at airports from which they are dispatched to fires to assist FireRanger crews that work on the ground. Airtanker systems can be modelled as spatial queueing systems with fires as customers that arrive at rates that vary over both time and space and airtankers as mobile servers that fight fires at spatially dependent service rates. In order to model the airtanker service process one must know how much time airtankers spend travelling to and from and dropping water on fires. We developed a methodology for processing historical fire, airport location and on-board airtanker tracking GPS data to identify the key events that take place while airtankers are involved in fire suppression operations. We used that data to develop detailed models that describe how airtankers participate in the initial attack process. Those models can be incorporated in strategic, tactical and operational airtanker management decision support systems. We conclude by suggesting that our methodology be extended to model the use of transport helicopters, trucks and heavy equipment in fire suppression, and the activities of FireRanger crews on the ground.

Radar track prediction method based on BP neural network

Taking into account the complex electromagnetic environment in which the radar target is located, it is difficult for the traditional track prediction method to adapt for the high complexity, randomness, and uncertainty of the manoeuvring target track. This study proposes a radar track prediction method based on backpropagation (BP) neural network. According to the historical track of the radar target, this method uses BP neural network to model its movement law and obtain the target's predicted track. Finally, the track prediction experiment was conducted with measured data and compared with the Kalman filter track. The results show that the proposed method has higher track prediction accuracy and can be used for radar track prediction.

Hegemonía y contra-hegemonía

Objectivo: describir la naturaleza del momento político global e identificar las estrategias desplegadas en el último decalustro y aquellas utilizadas en la actualidad en la carrera constante por la identificación, la organización de las mayorías sociales y la disputa del poder. Además, se busca explicar las características de la lucha política actual y considerar las implicaciones geopolíticas de la decadencia de la hegemonía estadounidense y el potencial contra-hegemónico de China.
 Metodología: el estudio implicó métodos cualitativos como el explicativo, el histórico-crítico y el interpretativo: rastreo histórico de procesos, análisis de coyuntura, contexto y cambio social, arqueología contemporánea de prácticas políticas colombianas y globales y observación e interpretación del discurso nacional e internacional. Para ello, se hizo búsqueda, organización y análisis de documentos académicos e investigativos sobre el campo de estudio y consulta de fuentes secundarias. También se identificaron autores, áreas de estudio, categorías, publicaciones y tendencias acerca del problema de investigación.
 Resultados: el análisis de la literatura disponible y la contrastación de las teoríaspolíticas en liza muestran la existencia de un impasse económico y político de carácterepocal.
 Conclusiones: China, y su singular posicionamiento de clase, puede ofrecer respuestas a dicho impasse y tener mensajes de importancia universal.

Metropolitan Hotel Sector Forecast Accuracy in El Paso

This study evaluates the accuracy of previously published econometric forecasts for seven lodging sector variables that measure hotel activity in El Paso, Texas. The hotel forecasts have been generated annually using an econometric model of the El Paso metropolitan economy from 2006 forward. Predictive accuracy is evaluated relative to random walk benchmarks. Assessment is completed using both descriptive forecast error summary statistics as well as formal statistical tests. The econometric model outperforms the random walk benchmarks for a majority of the variables analyzed. However, statistical tests of forecast error differentials do not yield conclusive evidence in favor of the econometric historical track record. Tests of directional forecast accuracy also produce mixed results. Although the structural econometric model of hotel business conditions appears to provide useful predictive information, analysts and planners should also monitor recent history closely.

CRISPR-Cas, a highly effective tool for genome editing in Clostridium saccharoperbutylacetonicum N1-4(HMT).

ABSTRACTThe solventogenic clostridia have long been known for their ability to convert sugars from complex feedstocks into commercially important solvents. Although the acetone-butanol-ethanol process fell out of favour decades ago, renewed interest in sustainability and ‘green’ chemistry has re-established our appetite for reviving technologies such as these, albeit with 21st century improvements. As CRISPR-Cas genome editing tools are being developed and applied to the solventogenic clostridia, their industrial potential is growing. Through integration of new pathways, the beneficial traits and historical track record of clostridial fermentation can be exploited to generate a much wider range of industrially relevant products. Here we show the application of genome editing using the endogenous CRISPR-Cas mechanism of Clostridium saccharoperbutylacetonicum N1-4(HMT), to generate a deletion, SNP and to integrate new DNA into the genome. These technological advancements pave the way for application of clostridial species to the production of an array of products.

Observed changes in precipitation extremes and effects of tropical cyclones in South China during 1955–2013

Daily precipitation data from 21 Chinese Surface Stations for Global Exchange in South China and historical tracks of tropical cyclones (TCs) from International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) during 1955–2013 are analysed to study changes in extreme precipitation and TC‐related precipitation with respect to global mean temperature. On annual and seasonal bases, there have been significant enhancements in heavy precipitation and suppressions of light and moderate precipitation under global warming conditions. Except in winter, the enhancements in heavy precipitation dominate over the suppressions of light and moderate precipitation, leading to increases of seasonal total precipitation. A significant increase of consecutive dry‐day episodes has been observed, especially in winter and early spring, which is detrimental to spring planting. The top 10% heavy precipitation associated with TCs has increased significantly under global warming conditions, despite a reduction in TC frequency. Finally, we find that TC‐related precipitation per TC storm in South China has increased by an alarming rate of about 50% during the period of 1955–2013.

Toward business process recommendation-based collaborative filtering

Existing process recommendation methods cannot meet the various needs of personalised users. To address this problem, this paper proposed a personalised process recommendation method that is based on user behaviour preference. This method combines traditional process recommendation with user behaviour similarity and mines user behaviour preference according to the historical tracks of processes that were performed by users. In the execution of a process, the execution trace of a behaviour-similar user and executable candidate activities to be recommended that are provided by conventional process recommendation are analysed. Then, activities or recommended activities for the current user are selected to realise the automatic construction of the entire process to meet the personalised needs of users. The experimental results show that the proposed method outperforms other methods in terms of accuracy and efficiency.

‘Culture Is Inseparable from Race’: Culture Wars from Pat Buchanan to Milo Yiannopoulos

‘Culture Is Inseparable from Race’: Culture Wars from Pat Buchanan to Milo Yiannopoulos

On-demand assessment of air traffic impact of blocking airspace

ABSTRACTThe Federal Aviation Administration often blocks strategically located airspace volumes to ensure safety during a variety of operations that are potentially hazardous to aircraft, such as space launches. As the frequency of these operations increases, there is a growing need to deepen collaboration and transparency between stakeholders regarding the use of airspace. This collaboration can be supported by models and capabilities to quickly assess the impact of airspace closures, up to 12 months into the future. This paper presents a technique to enable a ‘what-if’ analysis capability coupled with a prediction model, whereby changes in airspace dimension, location, and activation time are reflected instantaneously as measures of projected impact. The technique can also be used for quick post-operations analysis using historical traffic data and to develop air traffic impact assessment capabilities accessible to a broad range of users outside of the air traffic domain. This research has three key components: developing a model to predict air traffic demand up to 12 months into the future, modelling air traffic impact to the affected traffic, and reducing this information into a data structure that can support on-demand analysis. The focus of this paper is on new techniques to predict demand using a large set of historical track data and further encode these projections to support the quick assessment of the impact of blocking various airspace volumes. Initial results show that the proposed data reduction scheme accurately represented the traffic crossing an airspace and resulted in data size reduction by over 50%. The projection model performed well, the actual number of impacted flights were within the estimated range of approximately 80% of the time. Finally, the responsiveness of the web-based prototype developed to illustrate the concept demonstrated the model’s ability to support an on-demand assessment of the air traffic impact of blocking airspace. A significant limitation of the projection model is that it is based on the historical traffic pattern within the U.S. airspace; separate analysis is needed to adapt it to other geographical location.

Corporate Purpose in a Populist Era

In the wake of the 2016 US Presidential election and similar developments parts of Europe, commentators widely acknowledged the rise of populist movements on both the right and left of the political spectrum that both were deeply suspicious of big business. This development potentially has important implications for the law and practice of corporate purpose. Left of center corporate social responsibility campaigners have long advocated the use of “boycotts, shareholder activism, negative publicity, and so on” to pressure corporate managers to act in ways those campaigners deem socially responsible. Right of center populists could use the same tactics to induce corporate directors to make decisions they favor. The question thus is whether they are likely to do so based on their historical track record. Assuming for the sake of argument that right-of-center populists begin focusing on corporate purpose, the question arises whether modifying the shareholder wealth maximization norms so as to give managers more discretion to take the social effects of their decisions into account would lead to outcomes populists would view as desirable. Populists historically have viewed corporate directors and managers as elites opposed to the best interests of the people. Today, right of center populists find themselves increasingly at odds with an emergent class of social justice warrior CEOs, whose views on a variety of critical issues are increasingly closer to those of blue state elites than those of red state populists.

Online adaptive complementation tracker

Correlation filter-based trackers have recently shown excellent performance in terms of motion blur and illumination changes, but they are notoriously sensitive to deformation. It has been demonstrated that the combination of the correlation filter-based tracker and the color histogram-based tracker can alleviate the deformation and keep advantages of the correlation filter-based tracker. However, the most existing complementary tracking algorithms, which use fixed complementary weights, limit the performance of every sub tracker. This paper introduces an adaptive complementary tracker by online learning dynamic complementary weights. The strategy enables inappropriate sub tracker to be down-weighted while increasing the impact of suitable one. We jointly learn the sub trackers and their reliability weights by regression analysis of the corresponding historical tracking results. The robustness of the model also can be improved by training each sub tracker with the result of historical tracking. Finally, both qualitative and quantitative evaluations demonstrate that our tracker achieves the state-of-the-art results in a wide range of tracking scenarios.

Continuously Variable Transmissions - outline

Paper concerned the Continuously Variable Transmission (CVT). The comparison of the engine’s work conditions with conventional manual transmission and CVT’s is presented. Also, a short historical track is included. Furthermore, a production data with the forecast is presented for different parts of the World. Various current solutions of continuous ratio change are mentioned with the more detailed description of the most popular design used in passenger cars. Technological challenges and possibilities of further transmission improvement are included.

STRATEGI KOMUNIKASI PRAJURU DESA DALAM PELESTARIAN DUA KAHYANGAN TIGA DI DESA ADAT TEGAL DARMASABA KECAMATAN ABIANSEMAL KABUPATEN BADUNG

<p><em>Hinduism is one of the world's oldest religions. Based on historical tracks it is estimated that Hinduism began to flourish in 5000 BC, located in the valley of the Sindhu River India. The development of Hinduism in India has been linked with the Aryan Nations traveling across Central Asia to India, settling in the territory of the Sindhu River, or more popularly known as the Indus area. In line with the progress of civilization Hindu religion also experienced the development or dissemination to some other countries outside the country of India. Indonesia is one of the countries that became the area of dissemination or development of Hinduism. Bali is one of the archipelago areas that became the central point of the development of Hindu religion in the archipelago. The development of Hinduism in Bali has a strong suggestion of local cultural systems and customs. Therefore, the teachings of Hinduism in Bali have their own characteristics when compared with the beliefs of Hinduism in other countries.</em></p><p><em>Based on this background, three problems can be formulated: (1) What are the backgrounds and factors inhibiting the maintenance and preservation of the three heavens in Tegal Darmasaba Traditional Village? (2) What is the communication strategy that should be done by village counselors in the preservation of the three heavens in Tegal Darmasaba Traditional Village? (3) What are the communication implications of indigenous village customs in the preservation of the three heavens in Tegal Darmasaba ?. The purpose of this study is to solve and find solutions to a problem, also has the potential and effective power in achieving the goals and support the success of research conducted. This type of research is qualitative research with data collection techniques used are observation, interview, literature and documentation. Data analysis is presented in descriptive qualitative.</em></p><p><em>This study aims to develop a concept or develop an understanding of an emperis phenomenon, in this case the phenomenon of preservation parhyangan, and the role of prajuru Desa Pakraman especially Tegal Darmasaba Village in preserving Dua Kahyangan Tiga. This research can be concluded to be 3 that is: 1) inhibiting factor in maintenance and preservation of three heavens in Tegal Darmasaba custom village in the form of burden of kahan, burden of cost, and difference of understanding. 2) communication strategy of customary village in the preservation of two heavens in Tegal Darmasaba traditional village of persuasive communication, interpersonal communication, group communication, organizational communication and mass communication. 3) The communication implications of customary village counselors in the preservation of the three divisions in Tegal Darmasaba customary village are the implications in the social field, the implications in the religious field and the implications in the field of village weakness.</em></p>

An Inventory of Historic Storms and Cyclone Tracks That Have Caused Met-Ocean and Coastal Risks in the Eastern Baltic Sea

Suursaar, U.; Sepp, M.; Post, P., and Mall, M., 2018. An inventory of historic storms and cyclone tracks that have caused met-ocean and coastal risks in the eastern Baltic Sea. In: Shim, J.-S.; Chun, I., and Lim, H.S. (eds.), Proceedings from the International Coastal Symposium (ICS) 2018 (Busan, Republic of Korea). Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue No. 85, pp. 531–535. Coconut Creek (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208.Located on relatively high latitudes, the eastern section of the practically tideless Baltic Sea is frequently battered by extratropical cyclones that have caused storm surges of up to 421 cm (at St. Petersburg, Russia), and 275 cm at Parnu (Estonia). The analysis of storms includes the events that have yielded the highest sea levels at Parnu and Narva-Joesuu tide gauges on an annual basis from 1950–2016. For each event, corresponding cyclone tracks have been extracted from the cyclone database, which is based on NCEP/NCAR reanalysis of air pressure fields in a six–hour interval. Track matches for 109 surge cases were found, including 43 for Parnu, 42 for Narva-Joesuu, and 24 common for both locations. Although cyclones from several distinct directions can approach Estonia and the Gulf of Finland area, the most serious meteorological, oceanographic (met-ocean), as well as coastal impacts were connected to westerly approaching deep cyclones with tracks crossing Scandinavia and Southern Finland. A suitable course for the cyclone and a pre-elevated (by up to 70 cm) average Baltic Sea level as a result of preceding series of cyclones are among the important factors which may result in destructive event.

Liquidity as Social Expertise

ABSTRACTThis paper proposes a theory of liquidity dynamics. Illiquidity results from asymmetric information. Observing the historical track record teaches agents how to interpret public information and helps overcome information asymmetry. However, an illiquidity trap can arise: too much asymmetric information leads to the breakdown of trade, which interrupts learning and perpetuates illiquidity. Liquidity falls in response to unexpected events that lead agents to question their valuation models (especially in newer markets) may be slow to recover after a crisis, and is higher in periods of stability.

Impact of aerosols on tropical cyclone-induced precipitation over the mainland of China

In this study, we investigate the impacts of aerosols on tropical cyclone (TC) precipitation that occurred from 1980 to 2014 over China mainland. The TC-induced precipitation is objectively identified based on Western North Pacific (WNP) TC historical track data and daily precipitation data from meteorological stations. Aerosol optical depth (AOD) from the Second Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA-2) is used to represent the amount of aerosol pollution. The long-term variations in AOD and TC precipitation from the past 35 years are analyzed. A significant increasing trend is found for both the relative percentage of TC rainstorm days and the amount of aerosol loading. Together with the decreasing trend in the annual number of TCs affecting China, this indicates that aerosols are invigorating TC precipitation. For the TC precipitation during the study period, the relative occurrence of light rain shows a decreasing trend, while the proportion of heavy rain and rainstorms shows an increasing trend. Meanwhile, the intensity of the TC daily precipitation increases with the elevated pollution level, particularly during the TC initial period and for heavy TC rainfall. These statistical results based on long-term observations suggest that aerosols have a substantial impact on TC precipitation through microphysical effects and have the potential to impact the track, intensity, size, and lifespan of TCs over Southeast Asia.

Quantifying and visualizing site performance in clinical trials.

BackgroundOne of the keys to running a successful clinical trial is the selection of high quality clinical sites, i.e., sites that are able to enroll patients quickly, engage them on an ongoing basis to prevent drop-out, and execute the trial in strict accordance to the clinical protocol. Intuitively, the historical track record of a site is one of the strongest predictors of its future performance; however, issues such as data availability and wide differences in protocol complexity can complicate interpretation. Here, we demonstrate how operational data derived from central laboratory services can provide key insights into the performance of clinical sites and help guide operational planning and site selection for new clinical trials.MethodsOur methodology uses the metadata associated with laboratory kit shipments to clinical sites (such as trial and anonymized patient identifiers, investigator names and addresses, sample collection and shipment dates, etc.) to reconstruct the complete schedule of patient visits and derive insights about the operational performance of those sites, including screening, enrollment, and drop-out rates and other quality indicators. This information can be displayed in its raw form or normalized to enable direct comparison of site performance across studies of varied design and complexity.ResultsLeveraging Covance's market leadership in central laboratory services, we have assembled a database of operational metrics that spans more than 14,000 protocols, 1400 indications, 230,000 unique investigators, and 23 million patient visits and represents a significant fraction of all clinical trials run globally in the last few years. By analyzing this historical data, we are able to assess and compare the performance of clinical investigators across a wide range of therapeutic areas and study designs. This information can be aggregated across trials and geographies to gain further insights into country and regional trends, sometimes with surprising results.ConclusionsThe use of operational data from Covance Central Laboratories provides a unique perspective into the performance of clinical sites with respect to many important metrics such as patient enrollment and retention. These metrics can, in turn, be used to guide operational planning and site selection for new clinical trials, thereby accelerating recruitment, improving quality, and reducing cost.

Estimation of shipping emissions using vessel Long Range Identification and Tracking data

ABSTRACTShipping is a growing source of air pollutants and greenhouse gases, which are emitted mainly over an international territory, the seas, for which only shared responsibility by all countries is felt. The international community, in particular the International Maritime Organisation, is called to look for appropriate mitigation of these emissions. This starts with the reporting of emissions in an inventory and its mapping over the international territory to be able to then evaluate the effect of emission reduction policies on the environment. Under the European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme, Member States are required to provide gridded emissions for the different sectors but the spatial allocation of ship emissions requires a supranational setup to avoid transboundary inconsistencies. By using vessel density maps extracted from historical Long Range Identification and Tracking (LRIT) data, accurate high-resolution maps of emissions can be obtained in support of policy development, implementation and monitoring in the interrelated fields of air quality and climate.

A statistical dynamics track model of tropical cyclones for assessing typhoon wind hazard in the coast of southeast China

An improved full track model for tropical cyclones (TCs) based on statistical dynamics method is developed to estimate typhoon wind hazard in the coast of southeast China. The track model includes genesis model, movement model, and intensity model. The genesis model is established based upon an improved kernel probability density function with the biased cross-validation bandwidth. The movement model is developed based on the Beta and Advection Model (BAM). The intensity model consists of an auto-regression ocean intensity model and an inland decay model using the nearest neighbor method. Using the historical environment data, 1000 years TC tracks are simulated by the improved model and compared with features of the historical tracks in the western North Pacific (WNP) basin, the results verify that the developed model performs well. Moreover, typhoon wind hazard in the coastal areas of southeast China is estimated by the improved track model combined with a parametric wind field model. Compared with the current Chinese design code, the relative differences between estimated return period velocities and those recommended in design code are less than 13.4%. The developed model enables analyzing typhoon hazard in the context of climate change, which is our future task.

Quantifying the statistical distribution of Tropical Cyclone Activity in the historical record of the Dominican Republic

In this study, we re-examined the Official Hurricane Database from the National Hurricane Center (HURDAT-NHC), an agency associated with NOAA, for tropical cyclone activity from 1851 to 2012for the Dominican Republic on the island of Hispaniola in the Caribbean Basin. We performed analyses at two different levels for the island (i.e., all of the storm tracks in the Caribbean Basin near to the study area that made landfall and all of the events that crossed the Dominican Republic from a radius of 300 km from the coastline). This study includes the statistical occurrence of these phenomena during the study period and the climatological analysis of all tropical cyclone tracks (112 total events) by decadal seasonal distribution, fifty-year seasonal distribution and monthly seasonal distribution to show the lowest and highest activities. We performed wavelet analysis on the continuous data over a long time series to determine the important frequencies. This analysis provided a general statistical conclusion resulting from the data collected. A landfall probability for the study area corresponding to the long time series of (it’s 162) years within a radius of ~100, ~185 and ~300 km, based on the historical climatology tropical cyclone tracks, reveals the likelihood of a strike for a major or a minor hurricane. We present a review of the tropical cyclone activities that passed the Dominican Republic, which also forms part of the author’s dissertation.