A statistical dynamics track model of tropical cyclones for assessing typhoon wind hazard in the coast of southeast China

Abstract

An improved full track model for tropical cyclones (TCs) based on statistical dynamics method is developed to estimate typhoon wind hazard in the coast of southeast China. The track model includes genesis model, movement model, and intensity model. The genesis model is established based upon an improved kernel probability density function with the biased cross-validation bandwidth. The movement model is developed based on the Beta and Advection Model (BAM). The intensity model consists of an auto-regression ocean intensity model and an inland decay model using the nearest neighbor method. Using the historical environment data, 1000 years TC tracks are simulated by the improved model and compared with features of the historical tracks in the western North Pacific (WNP) basin, the results verify that the developed model performs well. Moreover, typhoon wind hazard in the coastal areas of southeast China is estimated by the improved track model combined with a parametric wind field model. Compared with the current Chinese design code, the relative differences between estimated return period velocities and those recommended in design code are less than 13.4%. The developed model enables analyzing typhoon hazard in the context of climate change, which is our future task.