Historical Survey Data Research Articles

Data Collection Expert Prior Elicitation in Survey Design: Two Case Studies

Abstract Data collection staff involved in sampling designs, monitoring and analysis of surveys often have a good sense of the response rate that can be expected in a survey, even when this survey is new or done at a relatively low frequency. They make expectations of response rates, and, subsequently, costs on an almost continuous basis. Rarely, however, are these expectations formally structured. Furthermore, the expectations usually are point estimates without any assessment of precision or uncertainty. In recent years, the interest in adaptive survey designs has increased. These designs lean heavily on accurate estimates of response rates and costs. In order to account for inaccurate estimates, a Bayesian analysis of survey design parameters is very sensible. The combination of strong intrinsic knowledge of data collection staff and a Bayesian analysis is a natural next step. In this article, prior elicitation is developed for design parameters with the help of data collection staff. The elicitation is applied to two case studies in which surveys underwent a major redesign and direct historic survey data was unavailable.

Northward Range Expansion of Water Deer in Northeast Asia: Direct Evidence and Management Implications.

Simple SummaryThe water deer Hydropotes inermis, one of the most primitive members of Cervidae, is classified as vulnerable by the IUCN Red List in their native range, having declined drastically in recent years. In this study, we illustrated a northern extension of water deer using the current evidence, and assessed the status, phylogeny, and genetic ancestry of the newly recorded population. Our results showed that water deer had expanded to the Northeast China and the Russian Far East, where there had previously been no record of this species; thus, this could be a genuine range expansion rather than simply an expansion of the known range. A genetic investigation indicated that the expanding population had a close phylogenetic affinity with Korean water deer. The likely migration route and causes of the species’ distribution range expansion are discussed.Given current anthropogenic pressures and climate change, wildlife range expansion offers a second chance for species conservation. The water deer Hydropotes inermis is a native to China and the Korean peninsula, but populations in North Korea and mainland China have declined drastically in recent years. However, the range of this species appears to be rapidly expanding northward. In this study, we employed camera traps and molecular technology to assess the status, phylogeny, and genetic ancestry of the newly recorded population. Our results showed an ongoing northward expansion of water deer, reaching at least 500 km from their historical distribution limit. We provided updated information on this species’ geographical distribution in Northeast China and the Russian Far East. Based on historical survey data before the 1990s, there had previously been no record of this species in these two regions; thus, this could be a genuine range expansion rather than simply an expansion of the known range. A genetic investigation based on mitochondrial DNA indicated that the expanding population had a close phylogenetic affinity with Korean water deer. The likely migration route and causes of the species’ distribution range expansion are discussed. We recommend revising the range of water deer in the IUCN Red List to facilitate the effective conservation and management of this threatened species, especially in new locations.

Changes in waterfowl migration phenologies in central North America: Implications for future waterfowl conservation.

Globally, migration phenologies of numerous avian species have shifted over the past half-century. Despite North American waterfowl being well researched, published data on shifts in waterfowl migration phenologies remain scarce. Understanding shifts in waterfowl migration phenologies along with potential drivers is critical for guiding future conservation efforts. Therefore, we utilized historical (1955–2008) nonbreeding waterfowl survey data collected at 21 National Wildlife Refuges in the mid- to lower portion of the Central Flyway to summarize changes in spring and autumn migration phenology. We examined changes in the timing of peak abundance from survey data at monthly intervals for each refuge and species (or species group; n = 22) by year and site-specific temperature for spring (Jan–Mar) and autumn (Oct–Dec) migration periods. For spring (n = 187) and autumn (n = 194) data sets, 13% and 9% exhibited statistically significant changes in the timing of peak migration across years, respectively, while the corresponding numbers for increasing temperatures were 4% and 9%. During spring migration, ≥80% of significant changes in the timing of spring peak indicated advancements, while 67% of significant changes in autumn peak timing indicated delays both across years and with increasing temperatures. Four refuges showed a consistent pattern across species of advancing spring migration peaks over time. Advancements in spring peak across years became proportionally less common among species with increasing latitude, while delays in autumn peak with increasing temperature became proportionally more common. Our study represents the first comprehensive summary of changes in spring and autumn migration phenology for Central Flyway waterfowl and demonstrates significant phenological changes during the latter part of the twentieth century.

Interest or ideology? Why American business leaders opposed the Vietnam War

AbstractWhy do business leaders support or oppose interstate wars? This article clarifies and empirically illustrates two competing perspectives on the sources of business war preferences: the opinions businesses have about interstate conflict. Namely, while an “economic consequences” perspective argues that business war preferences stem primarily from the economic effects of interstate conflicts, a “leader ideology” perspective predicts that business leaders’ domestic policy preferences and political ideology will determine their war preferences. I reexamine historical survey data on American business leaders’ opinions about the Vietnam War using item response theory scaling and regression analysis and find support for both perspectives. These results point toward the importance of further theoretical and empirical research on the sources of business war preferences, so I propose a structured, forward-looking research agenda on business war preferences based on different conceptualizations of businesses, their motivations, and the consequences of interstate conflicts.

A comparison of witness tree and contemporary compositions for old-growth forests at Savage Mountain, Maryland, and secondary forests of the northern Allegheny Mountains1

We used historical and contemporary survey data to assess the dynamics in two old-growth forests at Savage Mountain, Maryland, versus secondary forests from the surrounding landscape of the northern Allegheny Mountain Plateau (AMP). This is the first published compilation of witness trees from western Maryland. The old-growth forests on Savage Mountain, Maryland, are presently dominated by mixed oak (Quercus spp. L.; 42%), red maple (Acer rubrum L.), and black birch (Betula lenta L.). Witness trees (1620–1825) from Savage Mountain were dominated by mixed oak (55%), hickory (Carya spp.; 18%), and chestnut (Castanea dentata (Marsh.) Borkh.; 10%), and lacked red maple and black birch. The witness trees of the AMP in Pennsylvania were dominated by mixed oak (41%), pine (Pinus spp. L.; 12%), maple (11%), chestnut (10%), and hickory (6%). Currently the AMP is dominated by mixed oak (25%), red maple (25%), and black cherry (Prunus serotina Ehrh.; 11%). The old-growth stands on Savage Mountain are similar to its witness trees in regard to oak species and have greater oak dominance than the AMP secondary forests. This suggests that old-growth retains more oak compared with cut-over forests. However, old-growth on Savage Mountain has a higher density of red maple and black birch when compared to the AMP. Our research illustrates differences in forest dynamics and oak dominance between old-growth and second-growth forests that have important implications for the sustainability of native forests.

Sentiment Analysis of Social Survey Data for Local City Councils

Big data analytics can be used by smart cities to improve their citizens’ liveability, health, and wellbeing. Social surveys and also social media can be employed to engage with their communities, and these can require sophisticated analysis techniques. This research was focused on carrying out a sentiment analysis from social surveys. Data analysis techniques using RStudio and Python were applied to several open-source datasets, which included the 2018 Social Indicators Survey dataset published by the City of Melbourne (CoM) and the Casey Next short survey 2016 dataset published by the City of Casey (CoC). The qualitative nature of the CoC dataset responses could produce rich insights using sentiment analysis, unlike the quantitative CoM dataset. RStudio analysis created word cloud visualizations and bar charts for sentiment values. These were then used to inform social media analysis via the Twitter application programming interface. The R codes were all integrated within a Shiny application to create a set of user-friendly interactive web apps that generate sentiment analysis both from the historic survey data and more immediately from the Twitter feeds. The web apps were embedded within a website that provides a customisable solution to estimate sentiment for key issues. Global sentiment was also compared between the social media approach and the 2016 survey dataset analysis and showed some correlation, although there are caveats on the use of social media for sentiment analysis. Further refinement of the methodology is required to improve the social media app and to calibrate it against analysis of recent survey data.

Are invasive hymenopteran species replacing native mud dauber wasp-associated taxa on the Seychelles Archipelago?

Nest aggregations of mud dauber wasps increase substrate heterogeneity and provide suitable sites for colonization by other invertebrate species. The mud dauber wasp Sceliphron fuscum Klug, 1801 (Hymenoptera: Sphecidae) abundantly occurs throughout the Seychelles Archipelago, Republic of Seychelles. Here, we estimated the taxonomic richness of the hymenopteran assemblage associated with S. fuscum’s nest aggregations, using material collected from the Inner Seychelles in 2016. Furthermore, we examine available historical survey data in order to assess possible changes in this association over decades. We discovered that from 1936 to 1938, seven hymenopteran species were associated with the nest aggregations of S. fuscum on Mahé and Praslin islands, representing six native taxa and one invasive species. From the material collected in 2016, we found one native and three invasive hymenopteran species associated to S. fuscum nests. Our findings could indicate a replacement of native species associated with the mud dauber wasps’ nest aggregations by recently introduced alien taxa on the Seychelles Archipelago.

Finite-amplitude sound propagation effects in volume backscattering measurements for fish abundance estimation

Scientific advice for governmental management of marine resources relies on acoustical observation methods. Quantification and identification of fish and plankton species are often achieved using multi-frequency acoustic data. Accurate measurements of backscattering cross-sections and volume backscattering coefficients are essential. Systematic errors from finite-amplitude sound propagation are demonstrated in experimental survey measurements on Atlantic mackerel using 120 kHz and 200 kHz echosounders and high power settings. Finite-amplitude signal distortion causes excess transmission loss that is not accounted for in fisheries acoustics today, other than by fixed limits on the maximum transmitted power. The demonstrated errors are of a magnitude that can seriously bias abundance estimation and species identification. It is shown how the finite-amplitude effects can be modelled and predicted quantitatively, within a framework of electroacoustic power budget equations. A method is provided to calculate related errors in echosounder calibration and oceanic measurement of acoustic volume backscattering. When accounting for finite-amplitude effects in echosounder signal processing, higher transmit powers can be used when needed to improve signal-to-noise ratio or extend measurement range. The results indicate that historical survey data can be adjusted for such errors using numerical simulations. The echosounder characteristics relevant to finite-amplitude effects can be determined by laboratory measurements.

Relative Inference for Paired Data: More than Meets the Eye

Relative Inference for Paired Data: More than Meets the Eye

Impacts of a Non-indigenous Ecosystem Engineer, the American Beaver (Castor canadensis), in a Biodiversity Hotspot

Non-native species having high per capita impacts in invaded communities are those that modulate resource availability and alter disturbance regimes in ways that are biologically incompatible with the native biota. In areas where it has been introduced by humans, American beaver (Castor canadensis) is an iconic example of such species due to its capacity to alter trophic dynamics of entire ecosystems and create new invasional pathways for other non-native species. The species is problematic in several watersheds within the Southern California-Northern Baja California Coast Ecoregion, a recognized hotspot of biodiversity, due to its ability to modify habitat in ways that favor invasive predators and competitors over the region's native species and habitat. Beaver was deliberately introduced across California in the mid-1900s and generally accepted as non-native to the region up to the early 2000s; however, articles promoting the idea that beaver may be a natural resident have gained traction in recent years, due in large part to the species' charismatic nature rather than by presentation of sound evidence. Here, we discuss the problems associated with beaver disturbance and its effects on conserving the region's native fauna and flora. We refute arguments underlying the claim that beaver is native to the region, and review paleontological, zooarchaeological, and historical survey data from renowned field biologists and naturalists over the past ~160 years to show that no evidence exists that beaver arrived by any means other than deliberate human introduction. Managing this ecosystem engineer has potential to reduce the richness and abundance of other non-native species because the novel, engineered habitat now supporting these species would diminish in beaver-occupied watersheds. At the same time, hydrologic functionality would shift toward more natural, ephemeral conditions that favor the regions' native species while suppressing the dominance of the most insidious invaders.

Rain Belt and Flood Peak: A Study of the Extreme Precipitation Event in the Yangtze River Basin in 1849

Floods caused by extreme precipitation events, in the context of climate warming, are one of the most serious natural disasters in monsoon region societies. The great flood in the Yangtze River Basin in 1849, in Eastern China, was a typical extreme flood event. According to historical archives, local chronicles, diaries, and historical hydrological survey data, this study reconstructed the temporal and spatial patterns of extreme precipitation in 1849, and the flood process of the Yangtze River. We found four major precipitation events at the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, from 18 May to 18 July 1849. The torrential rainfall area showed a dumbbell-like structure along the Yangtze River, with two centers distributed separately in the east and west. For the specific flood process of the Yangtze River, many tributaries of the Yangtze River system entered the flood season consecutively since April, and the mainstream of the Yangtze River experienced tremendous pressure on flood prevention with the arrival of multiple rounds of heavy rainfall. In mid-to-late July, the water level and flow rate of many stations along the mainstream and tributaries had reached their record high. The record-breaking peak flow rate at many stations along the mainstream and tributaries in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River indicated intense precipitation in the area. The heavy rainfall disaster in the Yangtze River Basin could be driven by these reasons. First, the cold air in North China was extraordinary active in 1849, which made it difficult for the subtropical high pressure to move northward. Second, the rain belt stagnated in the Yangtze River Basin for a long time, and the Meiyu period reached 42 days, 62% longer than normal years. Third, the onset of a southwest monsoon was earlier and more active, which provided abundant moisture to the Yangtze River Basin. The great flood disaster was caused by heavy precipitation at the middle reaches, which made it quite different from the other three great floods in the Yangtze River in the 20th century. At present, the large water conservancy projects in the Yangtze River are mainly designed for flood problems caused by rainstorms in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River. The middle reaches of the Yangtze River, however, are facing the weakening of flood diversion capacity, caused by social and economic development. Therefore, future flood prevention measures in the Yangtze River should pay great attention to the threat of this flood pattern.

Humans as geomorphic agents: Lidar detection of the past, present and future of the Teotihuacan Valley, Mexico.

As humans are the primary geomorphic agents on the landscape, it is essential to assess the magnitude, chronological span, and future effects of artificial ground that is expanding under modern urbanization at an alarming rate. We argue humans have been primary geomorphic agents of landscapes since the rise of early urbanism that continue to structure our everyday lives. Past and present anthropogenic actions mold a dynamic "taskscape" (not just a landscape) onto the physical environment. For example, one of the largest Pre-Columbian metropolitan centers of the New World, the UNESCO world heritage site of Teotihuacan, demonstrates how past anthropogenic actions continue to inform the modern taskscape, including modern street and land alignments. This paper applies a multi-scalar, long durée approach to urban landscapes utilizing the first lidar map of the Teotihuacan Valley to create a geospatial database that links modern and topographic features visible on the lidar map with ground survey, historic survey, and excavation data. Already, we have recorded not only new features previously unrecognized by historic surveys, but also the complete erasure of archaeological features due to modern (post-2015) mining operations. The lidar map database will continue to evolve with the dynamic landscape, able to assess continuity and changes on the Teotihuacan Valley, which can benefit decision makers contemplating the stewardship, transformation, or destruction of this heritage landscape.

Changes in treatment pattern and costs in advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC)

ABSTRACT Introduction While essential for cost-effectiveness analyses, there are no current resource use and cost data available for advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and selective internal radiation therapy (SIRT). The study aims to assess current resource use and costs in HCC and for SIRT compared to historical survey data. Areas covered To address this data gap, resource use was elicited via surveys and interviews with medical professionals experienced with HCC and SIRT in the United Kingdom. Unit costs were from publicly available databases. Resource use and costs were estimated and compared to prior surveys. Expert opinion From eleven responses, pre-progression costs for SIRT and systemic therapy were £256.77 and £292.27/month, respectively. One-off progression and post-progression costs were £209.98 and £522.84/month. Monthly costs were 54%-79% lower than in previous surveys, due to reduction in hospitalizations and funded social care. Furthermore, substantial differences in resource use associated with SIRT between clinical practice and clinical trials were found. In conclusion, increased availability and familiarity with systemic treatments has led to important changes in HCC care and SIRT administration. The uncertainty from the use of expert opinion and the limited number of hospitals with SIRT experience can be addressed with future research using large databases, registries.

Predicting phenotypes from genetic, environment, management, and historical data using CNNs.

Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) can perform similarly or better than standard genomic prediction methods when sufficient genetic, environmental, and management data are provided. Predicting phenotypes from genetic (G), environmental (E), and management (M) conditions is a long-standing challenge with implications to agriculture, medicine, and conservation. Most methods reduce the factors in a dataset (feature engineering) in a subjective and potentially oversimplified manner. Deep neural networks such as Multilayer Perceptrons (MPL) and Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) can overcome this by allowing the data itself to determine which factors are most important. CNN models were developed for predicting agronomic yield from a combination of replicated trials and historical yield survey data. The results were more accurate than standard methods when tested on held-out G, E, and M data (r = 0.50 vs. r = 0.43), and performed slightly worse than standard methods when only G was held out (r = 0.74 vs. r = 0.80). Pre-training on historical data increased accuracy compared to trial data alone. Saliency map analysis indicated the CNN has "learned" to prioritize many factors of known agricultural importance.

Racket or Bat Sports: No Association With Thumb-Base Osteoarthritis.

Repetitive joint use is a risk factor for osteoarthritis, which is a leading cause of disability. Sports requiring a racket or bat to perform repetitive high-velocity impacts may increase the risk of thumb-base osteoarthritis. However, this hypothesis remains untested. To determine if a history of participation in racket or bat sports was associated with the prevalence of thumb-base osteoarthritis. Descriptive epidemiologic study. Four US clinical sites associated with the Osteoarthritis Initiative. We recruited 2309 men and women from the community. Eligible participants had dominant-hand radiographic readings, hand symptom assessments, and historical physical activity survey data. A history of exposure to racket or bat sports (badminton, baseball or softball, racketball or squash, table tennis [or ping pong], tennis [doubles], or tennis [singles]) was based on self-reported recall data covering 3 age ranges (12-18, 19-34, and 35-49 years). Prevalent radiographic thumb-base osteoarthritis was defined as Kellgren-Lawrence grade >2 in the first carpometacarpal joint or scaphotrapezoidal joint at the Osteoarthritis Initiative baseline visit. Symptomatic thumb-base osteoarthritis was defined as radiographic osteoarthritis and hand or finger symptoms. Radiographic or symptomatic thumb-base osteoarthritis was present in 355 (34%) and 56 (5%), respectively, of men (total = 1049) and 535 (42%) and 170 (13%), respectively, of women (total = 1260). After adjusting for age, race, and education level, we found no significant associations between a history of any racket or bat sport participation and thumb-base osteoarthritis (radiographic or symptomatic; odds ratios ranged from 0.82 to 1.34). In a community-based cohort, a self-reported history of participation in racket or bat sports was not associated with increased odds of having radiographic or symptomatic thumb-base osteoarthritis in the dominant hand.

Reproductive Biology, Size, and Age Structure of Harlequin Rockfish: Spatial Analysis of Life History Traits

AbstractMany rockfish (genus Sebastes) species within multispecies complexes have lacked basic biological data hindering their fisheries management. In this study, we provide essential information for stock assessment decision making for one of these species, Harlequin Rockfish Sebastes variegatus. We analyzed aspects of reproduction, size structure, and growth of Harlequin Rockfish in waters off Alaska using historical survey data and recent field collections. Results are reported primarily from the Gulf of Alaska (GOA) region, but important findings are noted from the Aleutian Islands (AI). Harlequin Rockfish reached an observed maximum age of 76 years in the AI, a new estimate for this species. Females exhibited group‐synchronous oocyte development; the parturition period occurred in the spring in both regions, ceasing as late as July in the GOA. Females from the GOA had an estimated length and age at 50% maturity of 187.6 mm (95% confidence limits [CL] = 152.0–215.6 mm; n = 318) and 4.7 years (95% CL = 1.6–6.2 years; n = 188), respectively, indicating that the Harlequin Rockfish is one of the earliest maturing rockfishes. We analyzed a 14‐year time series of bottom trawl survey data to examine the relationship between Harlequin Rockfish length and selected covariates. Spatial heterogeneity existed, with size showing a relationship with bottom temperature and ocean color (productivity index) across the GOA. The comparison of Harlequin Rockfish length at age indicated that larger fish were present in the western GOA but variable growth occurred across the region. Our findings contribute to understanding Harlequin Rockfish biology within multispecies management complexes, and our results demonstrate that key life history traits vary spatially, possibly influenced by regional environmental conditions. This study represents the most comprehensive biological examination for Harlequin Rockfish.

The transformation of Caribbean coral communities since humans.

The mass die‐off of Caribbean corals has transformed many of this region’s reefs to macroalgal‐dominated habitats since systematic monitoring began in the 1970s. Although attributed to a combination of local and global human stressors, the lack of long‐term data on Caribbean reef coral communities has prevented a clear understanding of the causes and consequences of coral declines. We integrated paleoecological, historical, and modern survey data to track the occurrence of major coral species and life‐history groups throughout the Caribbean from the prehuman period to the present. The regional loss of Acropora corals beginning by the 1960s from local human disturbances resulted in increases in the occurrence of formerly subdominant stress‐tolerant and weedy scleractinian corals and the competitive hydrozoan Millepora beginning in the 1970s and 1980s. These transformations have resulted in the homogenization of coral communities within individual countries. However, increases in stress‐tolerant and weedy corals have slowed or reversed since the 1980s and 1990s in tandem with intensified coral bleaching and disease. These patterns reveal the long history of increasingly stressful environmental conditions on Caribbean reefs that began with widespread local human disturbances and have recently culminated in the combined effects of local and global change.

Predictive soil mapping using historic bare soil composite imagery and legacy soil survey data

There is an increasing need for detailed soil property maps to support land use planning, soil carbon accounting, and precision agriculture. While soil maps exist in Saskatchewan, they are at coarse scales (1:100,000), which are not always suitable for detailed soil management. One emerging technique for predictive soil mapping is the use of bare soil composite imagery derived from multi-temporal satellite imagery. This study focused on using bare soil composite imagery along with legacy soil data (1958–1998) with high location uncertainty to predict soil organic carbon, clay, and cation exchange capacity. The bare soil composite images were created from Landsat 5 imagery (1985 to 1995) using Google Earth Engine. Predictive models were built using a Random Forest model for each parameter and evaluated using a 75–25 train-test split. The soil organic carbon model had an R2 value of 0.55 with a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.67 percent, with the near infrared and visible light bands being the most important features in the model. The clay predictive model has an R2 of 0.44 and a RMSE of 5.0 percent, with the shortwave infrared bands being most important. The cation exchange capacity model had an R2 of 0.50 with a RMSE of 5.7 meq 100 g−1, with the shortwave and near infrared bands as the most important predictors. Based on these results, bare soil composite imagery represents a valuable covariate for predictive soil mapping in the Canadian Prairies. This work also illustrates that for regions with extensive adoption of conservation farming practices, satellite imagery should be obtained for time periods before these practices were adopted from the months of the year where crop residues have decomposed. By combining historical soil survey data with historical imagery, maps of legacy soil properties can be generated to make comparisons against with modern data for applications such as monitoring soil organic carbon change over time.

A Bayesian inference approach to quantify average pathogen loads in farmyard manure and slurry using open-source Irish datasets

Farm-to-fork quantitative microbial risk assessments (QMRA) typically start with a preliminary estimate of initial concentration (Cinitial) of microorganism loading at farm level, consisting of an initial estimate of prevalence (P) and the resulting pathogen levels in animal faeces. An average estimation of the initial concentration of pathogens can be achieved by combining P estimates in animal populations and the levels of pathogens in colonised animals' faeces and resulting cumulative levels in herd farmyard manure and slurry (FYM&S). In the present study, 14 years of data were collated and assessed using a Bayesian inference loop to assess the likely P of pathogens. In this regard, historical and current survey data exists on P estimates for a number of pathogens, including Cryptosporidium parvum, Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis (MAP), Salmonella spp., Clostridium spp., Campylobacter spp., pathogenic E. coli, and Listeria monocytogenes in several species (cattle, pigs, and sheep) in Ireland. The results revealed that Cryptosporidium spp. has potentially the highest mean P (Pmean) (25.93%), followed by MAP (15.68%) and Campylobacter spp. (8.80%) for cattle. The Pmean of E. coli is highest (7.42%) in pigs, while the Pmean of Clostridium spp. in sheep was estimated to be 7.94%. Cinitial for Cryptosporidium spp., MAP., Salmonella spp., Clostridium spp., and Campylobacter spp. in cattle faeces were derived with an average of 2.69, 4.38, 4.24, 3.46, and 3.84 log10 MPN g −1, respectively. Average Cinitial of Cryptosporidium spp., Salmonella spp., Clostridium spp., and E. coli in pig slurry was estimated as 1.27, 3.12, 3.02, and 4.48 log10 MPN g −1, respectively. It was only possible to calculate the average Cinitial of Listeria monocytogenes in sheep manure as 1.86 log10 MPN g −1. This study creates a basis for future farm-to-fork risk assessment models to base initial pathogen loading values for animal faeces and enhance risk assessment efforts.

Impact of a pollution breach at a coke oven factory on asthma control in nearby vulnerable adults

Previous studies have related sulfur dioxide (SO2) exposure to asthma exacerbations. We utilized the University of Pittsburgh Asthma Institute registry to study associations of asthma exacerbations between 2 geographically distinct populations of adults with asthma. Our objective was to examine whether asthma symptoms worsened following a significant fire event that destroyed pollution control equipment at the largest coke works in the United States. Two groups of patients with asthma, namely, those residing within 10 miles of the coke works fire (the proximal group [n= 39]) and those residing beyond that range (the control group [n= 44]), were geocoded by residential address. Concentrations of ambient air SO2 were generated by using local University of Pittsburgh Asthma Institute registry air monitoring data. Factory emissions were also evaluated. Data from a patient historical acute exposure survey and in-person follow-up data were evaluated. Inferential statistics were used to compare the groups. In the immediate postfire period (6-8 weeks), the level of emissions of SO2 from the factory emissions increased to 25 times more than the typical level. Following the pollution control breach, the proximal cohort self-reported an increase in medication use (risk ratio= 1.76; 95% CI= 1.1-2.8; P< .01) and more exacerbations. In a small subset of the follow-up cohort of those who completed the acute exposure survey only, asthma control metrics improved. Real-world exposure to a marked increase in ambient levels of SO2 from a pollution control breach was associated with worsened asthma control in patients proximal to the event, with the worsened control improving following repair of the controls. Improved spatial resolution of air pollutant measurements would enable better examination of exposures and subsequent health impacts.