Historical Record Research Articles

New source model for the 1771 Meiwa tsunami along the southern Ryukyu Trench inferred from high-resolution tsunami calculation

The 1771 Meiwa tsunami which struck the southern Ryukyu Islands (Sakishima Islands) had greater than 22 m run-up height, leaving about 12,000 casualties in its wake. At many places, the tsunami inundation or lack of inundation is well recorded in historical documents. Several tsunami source models have been proposed for this event using historical records as constraints of tsunami calculations. Nevertheless, the source model remains under discussion. This study re-evaluated the tsunami wave source model of the 1771 Meiwa tsunami using high-resolution (10 m mesh) bathymetric and topographical data for tsunami calculation, the latest historical record dataset, and seismological knowledge. Results demonstrated that a tsunami earthquake along the southern Ryukyu Trench was the likely cause of the 1771 event. However, it is noteworthy that assumption of a large slip with 30 m is necessary for a shallow and narrow region (fault depth = 5 km, fault width = 30 km, Mw = 8.49) of the plate boundary in the Ryukyu Trench, which is far larger than previously thought. This requirement of very large initial water level change at the source might involve not only the fault rupture along the plate boundary but also deformation by splay faults, inelastic deformation of unconsolidated sediments near the trench axis, and/or giant submarine landslides. Results also show that the effects of fault parameters on the run-up were quite different depending on the offshore coral reef width. This phenomenon strongly constrained the fault width to 30 km. Our tsunami ray tracing analysis further revealed the effects of bathymetry on tsunami propagation. It is noteworthy that meter-long huge tsunami boulders tend to be distributed along the specific coasts at which the tsunami was concentrated by bathymetric effects. This finding suggests that past tsunamis, including the 1771 event, might have affected the specific coral reefs on Sakishima Islands repeatedly, which is crucially important for understanding the heterogeneous distribution of tsunami boulders. This feature might also be useful to elucidate the effects of large tsunamis on the corals and reefs because a direct comparison of coral reefs that are damaged and not damaged by tsunami waves is testable in narrow areas in the case of the Sakishima Islands.

289 Evaluation of fecal microbiota transplantation in primiparous sows

Abstract Fifty primiparous (parity 3+) and 25 multiparous sows (DNA 241, DNA, Columbus, NE) were used to evaluate the impacts of fecal microbiota transplantation (FMT) from sows to gilts on piglet scours prevalence, mortality, and fecal microbial diversity. Fresh fecal samples were collected from the primiparous and multiparous sows on approximately d 69 and 89 of gestation. The sows selected for sampling were from the same breed week as the gilts and had a historical record of low piglet mortality with increased litter size and no medical treatment during the current gestation period. The fecal samples from the sows were pooled on an equal weight basis and used for FMT solution preparation. The gilts were randomly assigned to one of two treatments: FMT or placebo (PBO). The FMT solution was administered orally to the 25 FMT gilts on approximately d 70 through 76 and 90 through 96 of gestation, while saline was administered to the 25 PBO gilts on the same days. Fecal samples were collected from all gilts and sows at the time of farrowing and at weaning. Piglets were individually weighed at birth and 5 wk post-weaning to calculate average daily gain (ADG). Scours prevalence was recorded daily from d 0 to 6 of lactation. Fecal samples were collected from two piglets per litter at weaning and 5 wk post-weaning. Pre-wean and nursery piglet mortality and morbidity were recorded. Total DNA from fecal samples and FMT solution from each timepoint were submitted for amplicon sequencing (Illumina MiSeq, Illumina Inc., San Diego, CA) at the Iowa State University DNA Facility (Ames, IA) to evaluate differences in microbial diversity and relative abundances across treatments groups. Data were analyzed using R version 4.3.1 (R Core Team, 2023). The sow and her litter were the experimental unit and results were considered significant if P ≤ 0.05 and a tendency if 0.05 < P ≤ 0.10. The number of piglets after cross-fostering and weaned were similar across treatments (P ≥ 0.721). There was no effect of treatment group on piglet birth weight or ADG (P ≥ 0.198). Scours prevalence was less in sow litters compared with PBO litters (16.7 vs. 52.0%; P = 0.039), while FMT scours prevalence was intermediate. There was no effect of FMT on pre-wean or nursery mortality (P ≥ 0.890). In conclusion, FMT did not impact gilt litter scours prevalence, growth rate, or mortality through the nursery.

Decolonizing Regional Politics in Oceania: Re-examining the Historical Record

ABSTRACT Contemporary scholarship on the decolonization of regional organizations in Oceania has emphasized the agency of Indigenous leaders and the extent to which they led the charge to both decolonize the South Pacific Commission and to set up a new regional organization, namely, the South Pacific Forum, in which political issues could freely be discussed. In doing so, there has been a tendency to treat the colonial powers as a homogeneous group all reading from the same imperial script while Pacific Island leaders are often portrayed as a largely unified ensemble of players whose own agendas naturally harmonized around the project of decolonization. In re-examining the historical record, this article highlights the diversity of approaches evinced by actors on the regional stage leading up to the formation of the South Pacific Forum in 1971, showing that there are many more nuances to the story.

A Brief History of Political Instability in Vanuatu

ABSTRACT Vanuatu has largely avoided the political violence seen elsewhere in Melanesia in the recent past. It has a small but successful tourist economy, based on its selling point as a tropical paradise. It has powerful cultural resources, in the form of Christianity and kastom, to bind its people together with a sense of belonging from a shared past and hope for a shared future. Vanuatu also has a well-earnt reputation for political fragmentation and instability, a topic which can raise strong emotions both inside Vanuatu and out. Our brief history of political instability in Vanuatu aims to put the present political situation into broader perspective by tracing different elements of instability over time. Our approach is informed primarily by the historical and ethnographic record itself and, rather than focusing narrowly on the splits and intrigues of political parties, we try to provide the broader sociocultural context from which Vanuatu’s party politics emerged and that which it operates within. We thereby attempt to highlight the interconnections that exist between different forms of instability, political, religious, cultural, and otherwise.

Uncertain Blackness: The Mysterious Case of Joseph Stadler

Abstract Historians have identified George Coleman Poage as the first African American Olympian. Poage won two bronze medals in the hurdles at the 1904 St. Louis Olympics. In that same year, the name of another potential Black Olympian, Joseph Stadler, appeared briefly in a few newspaper stories previewing the games. Stadler clearly competed in St. Louis, winning a silver medal and bronze medal in the now-archaic forms of standing jumps. Whether he should join Poage on the roster of pioneering African American Olympians, however, remains a mystery among Olympic researchers—as does his racial identity. Analyzing the historical record regarding these claims and employing new information from census data and other public records reveals that Stadler was most likely white. His “misidentification,” however, reveals more than just a trivial episode about an inaccurate reading of racial identity from limited sources. The long history of narratives about Joseph Stadler's identity reveals important patterns about the social construction of race, illuminates the complexities of more than a century of seeking to depict the Olympics as a fulcrum of racial progress in American culture, and showcases the dangers of attempting to read “race” from historic photographs.

Keep your enemies safer: technical cooperation and transferring nuclear safety and security technologies

Even during the Cold War, the United States and the Soviet Union cooperated on nuclear safety and security. Since accidental or unauthorized nuclear detonations anywhere threaten peace everywhere, it seems straightforward that states more experienced in developing nuclear safety and security technologies would transfer such methods to other states. Yet, the historical record is mixed. Why? While existing explanations focus on the political costs and proliferation risks faced by the transferring state, this article argues that specific technological features condition the feasibility of assistance. For more complex nuclear safety and security technologies, robust technical cooperation is crucial to build the necessary trust for scientists to transfer tacit knowledge without divulging sensitive information. Leveraging elite interviews and archival evidence, my theory is supported by four case studies: US sharing of basic nuclear safety and security technologies with the Soviet Union (1961–1963); US withholding of complex nuclear safety and security technologies from China (1990–1999) and Pakistan (1998–2003); and US sharing of complex nuclear safety and security technologies with Russia (1994–2007). My findings suggest the need to examine not only the motivations behind nuclear assistance but also the process by which it occurs and the features of the technologies involved, with implications for how states cooperate to manage the global risks of emerging technologies.

'Laughing at us'

That Donald J. Trump won the US Presidential Election of 2016 defied the expectations of almost all seasoned observers of the US political system. Scholarly explanations stress structural factors that produced a substantial cohort of identity-vulnerable voters in tandem with Trump’s personal populist appeal. Trump benefitted from his political outsider status, celebrity familiarity, heteronormative masculinity, and unconventional rhetorical style including humour, all of which were amplified (and also mocked) by extensive mainstream news media coverage. Trump’s distinctive political use of the social media micro-blogging platform Twitter (now known as X) in engaging those cohorts has also been emphasized. The research presented here sits at the confluence of prior scholarly work on structural causes of identity vulnerability, on contestation involving humour, and on the enhanced political usage of Twitter. It examines the historical record of Trump’s tweets and re-tweets to see if and how the demarcation of his ‘humour brand’ affectively engaged his substantial Twitter followers and may thereby have contributed to his electoral success in 2016.

Post-fire reference densities for giant sequoia seedlings in a new era of high-severity wildfires

Many forests globally are experiencing increases in large, high-severity wildfires, often with increasingly inadequate post-fire tree regeneration. To identify areas that might need post-fire planting, forest managers have a growing need for seedling reference densities – the natural seedling densities expected to be adequate to regenerate a forest – to compare with observed post-fire seedling densities. The most useful reference densities will meet five criteria: they will (1) be specific to natural post-fire reproduction rather than planted seedlings (because planted seedlings can have substantially greater survival than natural seedlings, thus underestimating adequate natural reproduction), (2) apply to the first few years following fire (when management decisions and actions are most likely), (3) be specific to each of those post-fire years (because post-fire seedling densities can change rapidly with time since fire), (4) be associated with estimates of uncertainty, and (5) include consideration of novel environmental conditions during management applications (because most reference densities will be based on data collected under more environmentally benign conditions). The world’s most massive tree species, the giant sequoia (Sequoiadendron giganteum) of California’s Sierra Nevada, recently experienced historically unprecedented wildfires that killed an estimated 13–19% of mature sequoias across their native range. Seedlings germinating after these fires then experienced exceptional summer heat and the two most severe summer droughts of the 121-year historical record. To help inform management responses to these events, we used seedling censuses from past fires (mostly prescribed fires) to calculate sequoia seedling reference densities meeting the five criteria. The reference densities had three striking features, which are partly attributable to giant sequoia’s status as a pioneer species. First, despite being inherently conservative, the reference densities were quite high. For example, mean first-year reference density was 172,599 seedlings ha−1. Second, reference densities declined precipitously with time since fire: the mean fifth-year reference density was only 5% of the mean first-year density. Third, the reference densities were associated with relatively substantial uncertainty, a consequence of density variations among seedling plots; for example, the 95% credible interval for first-year reference density was 64,377 to 313,438 seedlings ha−1. Despite this uncertainty, a case-study sequoia grove that recently burned in a high-severity wildfire had second-year post-fire seedling densities that were significantly (and dramatically) lower than the corresponding second-year reference density, suggesting inadequate post-fire reproduction. Our results highlight the value of the five criteria for reference densities – criteria that, in current practice, are rarely all met.

Rainfall risk over the city of Abidjan (Côte d'Ivoire): first contribution of the joint analysis of daily rainfall from a historical record and a recent network of rain gauges

Abstract. Every year, rains cause material damage and human losses, in Abidjan (Côte d'Ivoire). The objective of this study is to contribute to the characterization of the rain hazard in the District of Abidjan. The available data are made up of daily rainfall from a historical station “Abidjan airport” (1961–2014) and an academic network of rain gauges (21) progressively implemented in Abidjan since 2015. A descriptive analysis (date of occurrence, rainfall depth, mean wet days intensity and number of rainy days) on the Highest Cumulative Rainfall Periods (HCRP: 60 d) is conducted on the long-term station. The periods of highest risk of flooding during the long and short rainy seasons are characterized. The Experimental variograms of extreme rainfalls derived from the current network, allow to evaluate their extensions according to the rainy season.

Using historical biocultural variables and skeletal pathology to assist with osteoprofiles

The biocultural approach uses biological, environmental, and cultural variables to help identify where an individual spent their childhood or their adult life. When a skeleton is identified DNA may not be sufficient in identification and complete osteoprofiles are needed. This research examines historic skeletal, genealogical, and biocultural information to determine if there is a correlation with the presence of vitamin D deficiency or spinal pathology. One hundred seventy-seven individuals living between the 1830s and 1940s were analyzed and traced through the historical record. Preliminary results indicate that there were trends in determining where an individual spent their childhood and the likelihood of vitamin D deficiency (chi-square p = 0.006; Spearman RS 0.92, p = -0.008), year of death (chi-square 0.005; Spearman RS 0.87, p = -0.01), presence of spinal pathology (chi-square p = 0.05; Spearman RS 0.72, p = -0.03), and trending toward age (p = 0.08). More research is warranted but completing osteoprofiles using biocultural variables may help identify where someone is from and how they lived their lives which in turn will assist with identification.  

Missing History of a Modern Domesticate: Historical Demographics and Genetic Diversity in Farm-bred Red Fox Populations.

The first record of captive bred red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) dates to 1896, when a breeding enterprise emerged in the provinces of Atlantic Canada. Because its domestication happened during recent history, the red fox offers a unique opportunity to examine the genetic diversity of an emerging domesticated species in the context of documented historical and economic influences. In particular, the historical record suggests that North American and Eurasian farm-bred populations likely experienced different demographic trajectories. Here, we focus on the likely impacts of founder effects and genetic drift given historical trends in fox farming on North American and Eurasian farms. A total of 15 mitochondrial haplotypes were identified in 369 foxes from 10 farm populations that we genotyped (n=161) or that were previously published. All haplotypes are endemic to North America. Although most haplotypes were consistent with eastern Canadian ancestry, a small number of foxes carried haplotypes typically found in Alaska and other regions of western North America. The presence of these haplotypes supports historical reports of wild foxes outside of Atlantic Canada being introduced into the breeding stock. These putative Alaskan and Western haplotypes were more frequently identified in Eurasian farms compared to North American farms, consistent with historical documentation suggesting that Eurasian economic and breeding practices were likely to maintain low-frequency haplotypes more effectively than in North America. Contextualizing inter- versus intra-farm genetic diversity alongside the historical record is critical to understanding of the origins of this emerging domesticate and the relationships between wild and farm-bred fox populations.

The World Must Put Hunger to Shame: The Hidden Story of Homowo, Ngmayem and Ngma

This message calls our world to put hunger to shame using the revealed examples of Homowo and ngmayem, an original ethnic food systems in Ghana. The occurrence of hunger over the centuries can be understood from hunger’s proverbial mood. The results of hunger on humans due to its numerous causes and it associated lessons compelled early Ga-Adangbe settlers in Ghana to independently initiate the concepts of ‘Homowo’ (hoot at hunger) and ‘Ngmayem’ (celebrate life foods) as food systems. The hidden systems and basics in these unique food systems of ‘hoot at hunger’ and that of ‘celebrate life foods’ was studied. Some notable findings from the concept of ‘hoot at hunger’ involves a comprehensive layout of hooting at hunger using sustainable agriculture and the following principles: an appropriate food with or without therapeutic effect, applicable technology, basic knowledge in food and nutrition, building a suitable organizational system driven by skilled humans across several communities, by recalling historical records of hunger in society, a set day of remembrance, eating good foods all day, by the story of who we are and where we come from, with unity of purpose as a community lead by honest leaders, and also by proper symbols, designs and expressions. A remarkable outcome from ‘celebrate life foods’ norm was that it showed a notable historical record about a people, their decisions, actions, dealings and group effort in time during a hunger crisis. Once again, both concepts call for the establishment of specialized centers for advanced studies on unique food systems of old and hunger around the world with a museum chronicling the past stories of hunger challenges among a people, district, nation and the world, their probable causes and its impact on their health, and how they invented exceptional systems and products to solve those problems. All these concepts are intended to transform or strengthen food systems.

Estimating freshwater flux amplification with ocean tracers via linear response theory

Abstract. Accurate estimation of changes in the global hydrological cycle over the historical record is important for model evaluation and understanding future trends. Freshwater flux trends cannot be accurately measured directly, so quantification of change often relies on ocean salinity trends. However, anthropogenic forcing has also induced ocean transport change, which imprints on salinity. We find that this ocean transport affects the surface salinity of the saltiest regions (the subtropics) while having little impact on the surface salinity in other parts of the globe. We present a method based on linear response theory which accounts for the regional impact of ocean circulation changes while estimating freshwater fluxes from ocean tracers. Testing on data from the Community Earth System Model large ensemble, we find that our method can recover the true amplification of freshwater fluxes, given thresholded statistical significance values for salinity trends. We apply the method to observations and conclude that from 1975–2019, the hydrological cycle has amplified by 5.04±1.27 % per degree Celsius of surface warming.

Normative Neighbourhoods

This paper offers a normative definition of what a neighbourhood should be. Normatively defined, a neighbourhood has identity, a place that functions as its centre, everyday facilities and services, internal and external connectivity, social diversity within it or an openness to its enabling, and a means by which residents can be involved in its aff airs and speak with a collective voice. This paper argues that there are four reasons why this normative de finition is a worthy goal. First, neighbourhoods that meet this normative definition do exist and are in high demand, which is evidence that more are needed. Meeting demand has become a significant problem over the last few decades, and cities struggle to find ways to sustain whatever supply they are fortunate to have. Second, normative neighbourhoods are able to foster a sense of ownership and caring. Neighbourhood tangibility forms the basis of self-governance, evident in the historical record and a century of discourse. In the absence of an explicit definition, neighbourhood is an abstraction, weakening residents' ability to control or change it. Third, normative neighbourhoods cultivate social and economic connection because they root connectivity in daily experience. From small business success to neighbourhood-based surveillance, to efforts to combat social isolation among the elderly, to increasing success among high-risk children in school, neighbourhood-based engagement is regularly cited as a factor in addressing social challenges. Fourth, the normative neighbourhood substitutes place for homogeneity as the basis of neighbourhood definition. Place, instead of class or race, forms neighbourhood consciousness and is the basis of collective identity, one capable of transcending the desire for social sameness, the fear of others, and the distrust of institutions. Social identity based solely on class, race or ethnicity has been harmful because of its exclusionary effects, so an alternative identity basis is needed.

Technology Focus: Completions (April 2024)

To start a text for high-level readers with a cliché is always a risk, but I will take it: “Data is the new oil.” When British mathematician Clive Humby coined this clever sentence in 2006, the thought-provoking idea behind it was that both oil and data need to be refined and processed to have value. Time and repetition eventually shaped the new, more common-sense meaning that data is as valuable as oil. And when the data refers to oil exploration and production, Humby’s statement becomes resounding, especially in its original meaning. The oil and gas industry, notably the completion activity, with its distributed sensors, optical fibers, permanent downhole gauges, sealed-wellbore pressure monitoring (SWPM), and microseismic, has generated a fantastic amount of data, which has increasingly been properly refined and processed, producing more information—and more oil. A quick search of OnePetro shows the number of papers that deal with the use of artificial intelligence with massive amounts of data that are being made available in the cloud to solve everything from the most prosaic completion decisions to the automatic design of stimulations in naturally fractured reservoirs. A good example of the use of data is shown in paper SPE 212922, which provides an in-depth analysis of interventions in the UK sector of the North Sea. Most of the conclusions, although mostly based on the UK Stewardship Survey, can be easily extrapolated to other regions of the world. And one of them puts its finger on the wound: the fear of asset managers of conducting interventions, even though they appear to be highly effective and economically viable. Paper SPE 212367 discusses the automation of SWPM data analysis for automatic volume-to-first-response matching, a great evolution in the design of refractures in the legendary Eagle Ford shales. And, if the evolution of completing unconventionals led the US to its historic production record in 2023, with more than 16 million BOE/D, in Argentina, shale gas has been a driver of development. The evolution of completions in the most famous unconventional prospect, Vaca Muerta, can be followed in paper SPE 212574. All of these great readings prove the cliché that “data is the new oil.” To complement the reading, a paper that will bring a discreet smile to a generation that breathlessly watched spaceships and even planets being destroyed by lasers, paper SPE 215016, details the industrial use of lasers in perforation. The future has finally arrived. To close the selections, two papers present current and important topics: completion options for carbon capture, use, and storage (SPE 216187) and innovations in autonomous inflow control devices, with the ingenious activation of the apparatus with chemical devices (SPE 216041). Recommended additional reading at OnePetro: www.onepetro.org. SPE 215016 First Industrial High-Power Laser Perforation Deployment by Sameeh I. Batarseh, Saudi Aramco, et al. SPE 216187 Improving Injection Efficiency in CCUS Wells: A Comparative Analysis of Different Completion Designs by Prakasa Bona, Halliburton, et al. SPE 216041Configurable Adaptive Chemical Inflow Control Device Eliminates Intervention by P. Asthana, Saudi Aramco, et al.

The invention of race and the persistence of racial hierarchy: White privilege, White supremacy, and White colorblindness

AbstractGiven the long history of contention over the meaning of race and the continued discomfort about what role it plays in the structure of inequality, I endeavor to clarify the origins of the association of race with skin color and other physical features by briefly discussing the historical record by which race became codified in law. My focus is the U.S. and specifically Colonial Virginia, where the codification of racial categories in law was especially consequential. I also discuss the existence of a racial hierarchy in which Whites are dominant and Nonwhites of various types are subordinate. I argue that the continued existence of this racial hierarchy not only has a legacy from the past, but it is reproduced in the present and continues to have major effects on the life chances of those thought of as belonging to different racial groups. I also discuss the elasticity, ambiguity, and contested nature of racial classifications, as well as the internal differentiation among those thought to belong to the same racial groups and the changes and variations over time that are continually remaking the meaning of race. Because of the political significance of race, I also clarify the meaning of key concepts that have been receiving recent attention: White privilege, White supremacy, and White colorblindness. Finally, I discuss race as a process rather than as a classification and briefly discuss how Whites and men can become allies, advocates, and activists in support of social justice.

Sjögren: unique surname, two men, four syndromes and one disease.

Henrik and Torsten Sjögren (/'ʃoʊɡrən/ or SHOH-grən) were two Swedish physicians living in the same period, but completely unrelated, except for their notable contributions to Medicine. The first one described keratoconjunctivitis sicca, afterward called Sjögren's syndrome, and a fishing net aspect retinal pigmentation affecting visual acuity, nowadays known as Sjögren reticular dystrophy. The last one contributed to the understanding of Spielmeyer-Sjögren disease, Marinesco-Sjögren, and Sjögren-Larsson syndromes, all related to genetic disorders and neurological symptoms. In this paper, we aim to describe each disorder, in order to avoid any misunderstanding in diagnosis and for historical record.

Poetic Devices, Thematic Significance, and Social Realities in Poetry: A Critical Literature Review

This study critically synthesized the existing scholarly research on poetic devices, thematic significance, and social realities. The researcher used a critical literature review and content analysis to scrutinize scientific literature. Based on the review, this study bridges the gap between poetic form and societal critique, highlighting poetry's capacity for thematic depth and social analysis. The artful use of metaphors, personification, imagery, etc., empowers poets to address complex socio-political narratives within their work, positioning poetry as a mirror of society’s multifaceted issues. Poets from varied cultures have historically harnessed verse to reflect on universal themes such as mortality, justice, and human experiences, affirming poetry's role as both a narrative force and a societal barometer. Furthermore, poetry's archival value as a historical record is illuminated, capturing the spirit of different ages and contributing to our collective societal understanding. Through this synthesis, poetry is recognized as an enduring vehicle for exploring and challenging social dynamics, immortalizing the collective human psyche in rhythmic form. Through their craft, poets offer critiques and engage in the socio-political commentary that continues to shape the literary canon and our collective understanding. The study's findings underscore poetry’s timeless relevance as a medium for social critique and thematic exploration

Lake Ice From Historical Records to Contemporary Science

AbstractLake ice phenology is a critical component of the cryosphere and a sensitive indicator of climate change that has some of the longest records related to climate science. Records commenced for numerous reasons including navigation, hydropower development, and individual curiosity, demonstrating the value of lake ice as a seasonal event of significant importance to a broad swath of peoples and countries. At the same time, lake ice loss has been rapid and widespread with lakes losing ice at an average rate of 17 days per century. In this Perspective, we examine the earliest known records of ice cover and the scientific studies that developed from that practice of record keeping. Studies in lake ice began in the nineteenth Century and have included relationships between climate, biology, and ice cover. Early studies developed some of the foundational principles that limnologists and climate scientists are still exploring, such as the relationship between ice phenology and climate variables, large‐scale climate oscillations, and morphological characteristics, with implications for lake ice physical structure and under‐ice ecosystems in a warming climate. We conclude with an examination of the state of the field and how these centuries‐long lake ice records can continue to inform cutting edge science by validating satellite remote sensing techniques, in addition to modeling approaches and collaborations across disciplines, that can improve our understanding of the loss of lake ice in a warmer world.

Vulnerability of maize, barley, and wheat yields to growing season temperature and socioeconomic indicators in Morocco

Abstract In Morocco, the historical record depicts a situation characterized by increasing temperatures and diminishing precipitation, which often ends up in severe drought episodes. This research examines the vulnerability of wheat, barley, and maize to growing season temperature changes as well as socio-economic adaptive capacity proxies. This work uses a composite index of vulnerability that posits that the vulnerability index is a function of the exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity indexes. FAOSTAT and Yield Gap Atlas data were used for the period 1991–2016 to calculate the sensitivity index. The World Bank Climate Portal provided the mean annual growing season temperature data used to compute the exposure index. The World Bank, figshare, and MPR archives were used to capture the proxies of adaptive capacity such as literacy and poverty rates. These findings indicate that wheat has the lowest vulnerability index and the greatest adaptive capacity index, while barley has the strongest vulnerability and lowest adaptive capacity indexes. Sub-nationally, the indices of vulnerability and the standardized growing season's temperature decreased northward. Northward, wheat records the lowest vulnerability and highest adaptive capacity, and the second highest standard growing season temperature.