Historical Climate Conditions Research Articles

Testing the potential of the dwarf shrub Dryas octopetala L. for dating in dendrogeomorphology

Dendrochronology has been applied around the world over decades to reconstruct historical geomorphological events and climatic conditions. Traditionally, this research has been conducted using trees (conifers as well as broad-leaved trees) but, in the last few decades, several shrub and dwarf shrub species have also been shown to be useful for dendrochronological purposes. This study assesses the potential of mountain avens (Dryas octopetala L.) to provide accurately dated information about past debris-flow events. The study site, the Marlt-Graben debris-fan, is located in South Tyrol (Italy). 119 shrubs from three debris-flow tracks were analyzed. The longest radius of each sample was measured and cross-dated to build two chronologies for each debris-flow track, one for each leveé. Correlations between these chronologies and precipitation and temperature data from five climate stations located in the proximity of the study site were calculated. The cross-dating procedure was complex, but a strict grouping of the samples, based on the specific leveés of the tracks, enabled the construction of mean chronologies for each of the individual slopes. Although the development of a mean chronology for the study area was unsuccessful, the cross-dated ages of the single shrubs allowed us to reconstruct debris-flow events by utilizing the minimum age method. The low climate correlations suggest that micro site conditions strongly influence the growth of this dwarf shrub. Although the results of this study suggest that Dryas octopetala may provide useful dendroecological information, additional information about its growth dynamics is required before this potential can be fully realized.

Conservation agriculture improves adaptive capacity of cropping systems to climate stress in Malawi

ContextAdaptation to climate stress is an unprecedented challenge facing cropping systems. Most adaptation assessments focus on how adaptation options affect yields of a single crop under different weather or climate conditions. Yet, cropping systems often comprise more than one crop, and holistic assessments should consider all crops grown in a cropping system. One adaptation option is Conservation Agriculture that is commonly defined around a set of three principles: minimum mechanical soil disturbance, permanent soil organic cover, and crop species diversification. ObjectiveHere we estimated the statistical effect of Conservation Agriculture on cropping-system yields under historical climate conditions. MethodsThe cropping-system yields considered all crops grown including maize (Zea mays L.) and legumes in intercropping or rotation, or both. The climate conditions included conditions of heat stress for maize and precipitation balances during the maize growing season. Heat stress for maize was studied using growing degree days over 30 °C. Precipitation balance was the difference between precipitation and reference evapotranspiration. Data included 6296 yield observations from on-farm trials in farmer plots conducted over 14 seasons (2005–2006 to 2018–2019) in ten communities in Malawi. These yield data were coupled with daily weather data. We studied three treatments: (1) a Control Practice treatment where the soil was tilled, crop residues were removed, and there was no crop species diversification, (2) a No-Tillage treatment where the soil was not tilled, crop residues were retained, and there was no crop species diversification, and (3) a Conservation Agriculture treatment where the soil was not tilled, crop residues were retained, and there was crop species diversification through legume intercropping. The use of maize varieties and legume rotation changed over time; however, the treatments studied remained the same over the entire length of the on-farm trials period in all individual communities. Results and conclusionsResults of our study showed that heat stress for maize had a negative effect on cropping-system yields for non-stress-tolerant maize varieties and no legume rotation, although the Conservation Agriculture treatment reduced this negative effect compared with the Control Practice treatment. With the use of stress-tolerant maize varieties and legume rotation and Conservation Agriculture, our results suggest that heat stress for maize did not have a negative effect on cropping-system yields. SignificanceOur results demonstrate how Conservation Agriculture can improve the adaptive capacity of cropping systems and this provides urgently needed evidence on how farmers can adapt to climate stress.

Analysis of the surface mass balance for deglacial climate simulations

Abstract. A realistic simulation of the surface mass balance (SMB) is essential for simulating past and future ice-sheet changes. As most state-of-the-art Earth system models (ESMs) are not capable of realistically representing processes determining the SMB, most studies of the SMB are limited to observations and regional climate models and cover the last century and near future only. Using transient simulations with the Max Planck Institute ESM in combination with an energy balance model (EBM), we extend previous research and study changes in the SMB and equilibrium line altitude (ELA) for the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets throughout the last deglaciation. The EBM is used to calculate and downscale the SMB onto a higher spatial resolution than the native ESM grid and allows for the resolution of SMB variations due to topographic gradients not resolved by the ESM. An evaluation for historical climate conditions (1980–2010) shows that derived SMBs compare well with SMBs from regional modeling. Throughout the deglaciation, changes in insolation dominate the Greenland SMB. The increase in insolation and associated warming early in the deglaciation result in an ELA and SMB increase. The SMB increase is caused by compensating effects of melt and accumulation: the warming of the atmosphere leads to an increase in melt at low elevations along the ice-sheet margins, while it results in an increase in accumulation at higher levels as a warmer atmosphere precipitates more. After 13 ka, the increase in melt begins to dominate, and the SMB decreases. The decline in Northern Hemisphere summer insolation after 9 ka leads to an increasing SMB and decreasing ELA. Superimposed on these long-term changes are centennial-scale episodes of abrupt SMB and ELA decreases related to slowdowns of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) that lead to a cooling over most of the Northern Hemisphere.

Projecting the Global Potential Distribution of Cydia pomonella (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) Under Historical and RCP4.5 Climate Scenarios.

The codling moth Cydia pomonella (L.) (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) is a destructive pest of apple (Malus domestica (Rosales: Rosaceae)), pear (Pyrus spp. (Rosales: Rosaceae)), and other pome tree fruits; outbreaks cause significant ecological and economic losses. In this study, we used CLIMEX model to predict and evaluate the global risk of C. pomonella based on historical climate data (1989–2018) and simulated future climate data (2071–2100) under the RCP4.5 scenarios. Cydia pomonella exhibited a wide distribution under both historical and future climate conditions. Climate change is predicted to expand the northern boundary of the potential distribution from approximately 60°N to 75°N. Temperature was the most dominant factor in climatic suitability for the pest. Combinations of multiple meteorological factors (relative humidity and precipitation) associated with a failure to break diapause in certain regions also affect suitability, particularly in northern South America and central Africa. Irrigation only had a slight impact on species favorability in some areas. The projections established in our study present insight into the global potential suitability of C. pomonella under climate change scenarios by the end of the 21st century. Farmers should be aware of the risk associated with the pest based on the results, which would provide guidance for quarantine agencies and trade negotiators worldwide.

Estimating spatial variation in the effects of climate change on the net primary production of Japanese cedar plantations based on modeled carbon dynamics

Spatiotemporal prediction of the response of planted forests to a changing climate is increasingly important for the sustainable management of forest ecosystems. In this study, we present a methodology for estimating spatially varying productivity in a planted forest and changes in productivity with a changing climate in Japan, with a focus on Japanese cedar (Cryptomeria japonica D. Don) as a representative tree species of this region. The process-based model Biome-BGC was parameterized using a plant trait database for Japanese cedar and a Bayesian optimization scheme. To compare productivity under historical (1996–2000) and future (2096–2100) climatic conditions, the climate scenarios of two representative concentration pathways (i.e., RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) were used in five global climate models (GCMs) with approximately 1-km resolution. The seasonality of modeled fluxes, namely gross primary production, ecosystem respiration, net ecosystem exchange, and soil respiration, improved after two steps of parameterization. The estimated net primary production (NPP) of stands aged 36–40 years under the historical climatic conditions of the five GCMs was 0.77 ± 0.10 kgC m-2 year-1 (mean ± standard deviation), in accordance with the geographical distribution of forest NPP estimated in previous studies. Under the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios, the mean NPP of the five GCMs increased by 0.04 ± 0.07 and 0.14 ± 0.11 kgC m-2 year-1, respectively. The increases in annual NPP were small in the southwestern region because of the decreases in summer NPP and the small increases in winter NPP under the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. Under the RCP2.6 scenario, Japanese cedar was at risk in the southwestern region, in accordance with previous studies, and monitoring and silvicultural practices should be modified accordingly.

Descriptive or normative: How does reservoir operations modeling influence hydrological simulations under climate change?

Human activities have a strong influence on the hydrological cycle altering natural patterns of evapotranspiration, soil infiltration capacity, ice cover, groundwater distribution, and, ultimately, streamflow at different spatio-temporal scales. Yet, modelling human activities and the associated impacts are often given a secondary importance in hydrological models with respect to the high-fidelity characterization of natural processes, especially at the catchment scale. While this has little or no influence on model accuracy when modelling pristine watersheds, it remarkably deteriorates the model performance in river basins with a considerable anthropogenic footprint. Operations of water infrastructures within a watershed, e.g., a dam or a diversion dam, are commonly modelled based on observational data, when available. This reproduces to some extent the historical decisions, but might be inadequate to simulate operations outside of historical climate or socio-economic conditions. In this paper, we compare a descriptive approach traditionally adopted in hydrological models, where reservoir operations are determined by tracking the historical average release, and a normative approach, where the operations are dynamically conditioned upon the reservoir storage and can adapt to the climate and socio-economic conditions influencing the reservoir operations. We contrast these two approaches by assessing the reservoir dynamics and the impacts on the downstream river system across time scales, from daily to seasonal. We first discuss the accuracy of the two approaches in reproducing historical observations. Then, we explore their potential in anticipating the impacts of future reservoir operations when considering climate and socio-economic change scenarios, thus testing the approaches in decision making contexts increasingly altered with respect to the historical one. We critically present the advantages and disadvantages of either approach, thus contributing to clarify the importance of adopting an appropriate approach to model reservoir operations when reconstructing past dynamics or anticipating future dynamics of catchments impacted by human activities.

Climate change impact assessment on grape growth and wine production in the Okanagan Valley (Canada)

This study assesses the impacts of observed (1970–2019) and projected (2011–2100) climate change on key indicators and critical thresholds for grape growth (viticulture) and wine production (oenology) in the Okanagan Valley of British Columbia (Canada). Observational data was retrieved from the Kelowna weather station located in the centre of the valley. Indicators and thresholds associated with climate risks and climatic suitability were identified from among previous impact assessments on grape and wine within cool climate viticultural areas. Climate change projections from Global Climate Models were retrieved from the Climate Model Intercomparison Project 5, including both medium (RCP4.5) and high (RCP8.5) Representative Concentration Pathways. Two different statistical downscaling techniques were employed, evaluated, and selected, based on their ability to reproduce historical climate conditions. Scenarios from the Statistical Down-Scaling Model were used for temperature projections while scenarios from the Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium were used for precipitation projections. All the temperature variables considered demonstrated statistically significant warming trends during the historical period with continued warming projected over the course of the 21st century. Precipitation trends were less conclusive, with a wetter climate projected despite some evidence of historical drying. The results of this study demonstrate that the Okanagan Valley has already transitioned from cool to intermediate climate viticulture and may shift further into warm climate viticultural classifications. This means greater climate risks associated with heat stress but less risk due to freeze damage and frost potential. Effective climate change adaptation is of critical importance to the grape and wine industry in this region. Such planning and management strategies can ensure climate risks are minimised while capitalising on new opportunities associated with improved climatic suitability for growing more Europeans grape varieties, capable of producing higher quality wines, which often sell for greater market prices.

Analysis of Climate Change and Extreme Climatic Events in the Lake Victoria Region of Tanzania

The understanding of climate change impacts and the associated climate extreme events at regional and local scales is of critical importance for planning and development of feasible adaptation strategies. In this paper, we present an analysis of climate change and extreme climate events in the Lake Victoria region of Tanzania, focusing on the Kagera and Geita regions. We use daily simulated climate variables (rainfall and minimum and maximum temperatures) from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment Program Regional Climate Models (CORDEX_RCMs) for the analysis. Extreme climate event, rainfall, and minimum and maximum temperatures time series during historical (1971–2000) climate condition are compared to future climate projection (2011–2100) under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP): RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios. The existence, magnitude, and statistical significance of potential trends in climate data time series are estimated using the Mann–Kendall (MK) non-parametric test and Theil-SEN slope estimator methods. Results show that during historical (1971–2000) climate, the Lake Victoria region of Tanzania experienced a statistically significant increasing trend in temperature. The annual minimum and maximum temperatures in the Kagera and Geita regions have increased by 0.54–0.69°C, and 0.51–0.69°C, respectively. The numbers of warm days (TX90p) and warm nights (TN90p) during the historical climate have increased, while the numbers of cold days (TX10p) and cold nights (TN10p) have decreased significantly. However, in future climate condition (2011–2100) under both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios, the Lake Victoria region is likely to experience increased temperatures and rainfall. The frequency of cold events (cold days and cold nights) is likely to decrease, while the frequency of warm events (warm days and warm nights) is likely to increase significantly. The number of consecutive wet days, the intensity of very wet days, and the number of extreme wet days are likely to increase. These results indicate that in future climate condition, socioeconomic livelihoods of people in the Kagera and Geita regions are likely to experience significant challenges from climate-related stresses. It is, therefore, recommended that appropriate planning and effective adaptation policies are in place for disaster risk prevention.

Global marine heatwave events using the new CMIP6 multi-model ensemble: from shortcomings in present climate to future projections

In recent years, research related to the occurrence of marine heatwave (MHW) events worldwide has been increasing, reporting severe impacts on marine ecosystems which led to losses of marine biodiversity or changes in world fisheries. Many of these studies, based on regional and global coupled models, show relevant biases in the MHW properties when compared with observations. In this study, the MHW frequency of occurrence, the duration and mean intensity over the global oceans are characterized, taking advantage of the new global climate model (GCM) dataset, from the Coupled Model Project Intercomparison Phase 6 (CMIP6). The MHWs result for the historical period are compared with observations, and the future projected changes are characterized under three socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) (SSP1, SSP2 and SSP5), for the middle and end of century (2041–2070 and 2071–2100). The results show a reasonable agreement between the modeled and observed MHW property trends, indicating increases in the frequency, duration and intensity of MHWs along the historical period. For the period 1982–2014, both the ∼2 mean observed events per year and the mean intensity of 0.35 °C above the threshold are underestimated by the multi-model ensemble (MME) mean by 21% and 31%, respectively, while the observed duration of ∼12 d are overestimated by 100%. The future MHWs are expected to increase in duration and intensity, where a near permanent MHW occurs with reference to the historical climate conditions, mainly by the end of the 21st century. The future MHWs intensity, projected by the MME mean, increases in the range of 0.2 °C to 1.5 °C, from the least to the most severe pathways. The GCMs biases obtained with CMIP6 revealed to be in line with the CMIP5 biases, reinforcing the need to use high spatial resolution models to characterize MHW.

Temporal changes in Mediterranean forest ecosystem services are driven by stand development, rather than by climate-related disturbances

The Mediterranean Region constitutes a biodiversity hotspot and its forests have provided multiple ecosystem services (ES) to human societies for millennia. In the last decades, many Mediterranean forests have undergone a decreasing level of direct human pressure and a growing exposure to environmental stress factors (e.g. wildfires and droughts). However, the degree to which these processes have affected the provision of ES remains largely unexplored. We used an extensive database of 3417 permanent plots (period 1990–2015, 25 years) from the Spanish National Forest Inventory in Catalonia (North-Eastern Spain) and a range of four ecological models to measure and estimate changes in five different ES: wild mushrooms production, timber volume increment, water provision, carbon sequestration and erosion mitigation. We then assessed general trends in ES, their spatial–temporal patterns and searched for potential trade-offs in their delivery. Using mixed-effects models, we explored the differences among three biogeographical regions, as well as the effect of different environmental and site level drivers, including descriptors of stand structure and development, the legacies of management practices and disturbances, as well as the influence of historical climate conditions and their recent anomalies. Our results show a general decline of timber volume increment, water provision and carbon sequestration, along with an increase in erosion mitigation across inland and montane regions. Fitted model parameters suggest a predominant role of stand structure in driving changes in forest ES supply in the study area. In particular, stands with high basal areas were associated with steeper declines in most ES, whereas high mean tree diameter generally contributed to ES increases. Finally, our results showed a series of potential trade-offs among temporal changes in ES that were not reflected in exclusively static analyses, highlighting the relevance of including the temporal dimension in regional assessments of ES. Future forest management and planning could better account for overall ES value as well as expected changes in their future provision, paving the way to landscape planning that balances these two essential components of forest ES.

Analysis of Operational Changes of Tarbela Reservoir to Improve the Water Supply, Hydropower Generation, and Flood Control Objectives

In this study, a model was created with the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) System and used to explore the benefits of altering the operations of Tarbela Dam in terms of reliability, resilience, and vulnerability (RRV) for the three objectives of irrigation supply, hydropower generation, and flood control. Sensitivity analysis and logical reasoning with operators identified a feasible operational rule curve for testing using the integrated performance analysis. The reservoir performance for the altered operations was compared to the baseline performance following current operations for both historical and projected future climate and water demand conditions. Key simulation results show that the altered operations strategy tested under historical climate and water demand conditions would increase RRV by 17%, 67%, and 7%, respectively, for the water supply objective and 34%, 346%, and 22%, respectively, for hydropower generation. For projected future conditions, the proposed operations strategy would increase RRV by 7%, 219%, and 11%, respectively, for water supply and 19%, 136%, and 13% for hydropower generation. Synthesis of the results suggests significant benefits for reliability and resilience of water supply and hydropower are possible with slight operational adjustments. Overall, the integrated performance analysis supports the need to develop an optimized operations rule for Tarbela to adapt to projected climate and demand scenarios.

Natura 2000 forest habitats: climatic debt in lowlands and thermophilization in highlands

Natura 2000 is a European network of sites dedicated to the conservation of vulnerable habitats. The definitions of Natura 2000 habitats are mainly based on plant communities. We investigated if the increase of the dominance of warm-adapted species observed in plant communities, described as thermophilization, had already led to measurable changes in Natura 2000 forest habitats. We created 5701 pairs of neighboring forest plots by gathering plots surveyed before 1987 and after 1997 to reflect historical and recent climatic conditions. A Natura 2000 habitat type was assigned to each vegetation plot using an automatic classification program. We calculated a temperature index that synthesized the temperature range of each habitat, and compared the habitat temperature indexes of the recent and historical plots of each pair. We highlighted a significant overall shift of 4.8% ± 1.78 (CI 95%) of the pairs toward warmer habitats over the studied period. While the shift was not significant in lowlands, 11.1% ± 3.0 (CI 95%) of the pairs evolved toward warmer habitats in highlands. The excess of pairs with a warmer habitat in the recent period was interpreted as thermophilization of Natura 2000 forest habitats. Therefore, global warming has been strong enough to induce actual changes at the coarse-grained habitat resolution specifically targeted by public policies. The absence of significant results in lowlands suggests the existence of unrealized potential habitat changes, which can be considered as a climatic debt. These results call for differential prioritization levels and implementations of public policies for nature conservation in lowlands and highlands.

Population exposure to pre-emptive de-energization aimed at averting wildfires in Northern California

Recent extreme fire seasons in California have prompted utilities such as Pacific Gas and Electric to pre-emptively de-energize portions of the electrical grid during periods of extreme fire weather to reduce the risk of powerline-related fire ignitions. The policy was deployed in 2019, resulting in 12 million person-days of power outages and widespread societal disruption. Retrospective weather and vegetation moisture data highlight hotspots of historical risk across northern California. We estimate an average of 1.6 million person-days of de-energization per year, based on recent historical climate conditions and assuming publicly stated utility de-energization thresholds. We further estimate an additional 70% increase in the population affected by de-energization when vegetation remains abnormally dry later into autumn—suggesting that climate change will likely increase population vulnerable to de-energization. Adaptation efforts to curtail fire risk can be beneficial, but efforts to prepare affected populations, modernize the grid, and refine decision-making surrounding such policies have high potential to reduce the magnitude of negative externalities experienced during the 2019 de-energization events.

Projected Climate-Fire Interactions Drive Forest to Shrubland Transition on an Arizona Sky Island

Climate stressors on forests of the American Southwest are shifting species distributions across spatial scales, lengthening potential fire seasons, and increasing the incidence of drought and insect-related die-off. A legacy of fire exclusion in forests once adapted to frequent surface fires is exacerbating these changes. Reducing stand densities and surface fuel loads has been proposed as a means of moderating fire behavior while reducing competition for water, but it is not established whether thinning treatments and restoration of surface fire regimes will be enough to offset the multiple manifestations of a changing climate. We examined the potential for prescribed fuel treatments and restoration of historical fire frequencies to mitigate the effects of climate on forest species distributions, composition, total biomass, and fire severity. We used an ecosystem process model to simulate the effects of projected climate, fire, and active management interactions along an ecological gradient of shrublands, woodlands, and forests on a mountain range in Arizona, USA. We used historical climate conditions as a baseline to compare results from projected climate, for the period 2005-2055, with and without fire, and with no fuel treatments, a single-entry fuel treatment, and a second fuel treatment after twenty years. Simulated desert grassland and shrub communities remained compositionally stable and maintained or expanded their extents, while woodland and forest communities lost basal area and total biomass and receded to the coolest and wettest aspects and drainages, even without fire. Initial fuel treatments reduced the extent and relative mortality of high-severity patches for the first two decades and secondary treatments at simulation year 20 extended these effects for the remaining 30-years of simulation. Immediate and future fuel treatments showed potential to mitigate the severity of fire effects under projected conditions and slow the transition from forest to shrubland in some vegetation types; however, a reduction in basal area and spatial extent of some forest species occurred regardless of management actions. Results are being used to inform local land managers and partners of potential landscape changes resulting from climate alone, from climate-fire interactions, and to coordinate active management of fuels across ownerships.

One hundred years of climate change in Mexico.

Spatial assessments of historical climate change provide information that can be used by scientists to analyze climate variation over time and evaluate, for example, its effects on biodiversity, in order to focus their research and conservation efforts. Despite the fact that there are global climatic databases available at high spatial resolution, they represent a short temporal window that impedes evaluating historical changes of climate and their impacts on biodiversity. To fill this gap, we developed climate gridded surfaces for Mexico for three periods that cover most of the 20th and early 21st centuries: t1-1940 (1910–1949), t2-1970 (1950–1979) and t3-2000 (1980–2009), and used these interpolated surfaces to describe how climate has changed over time, both countrywide and in its 19 biogeographic provinces. Results from our characterization of climate change indicate that the mean annual temperature has increased by nearly 0.2°C on average across the whole country from t2-1970 to t3-2000. However, changes have not been spatially uniform: Nearctic provinces in the north have suffered higher temperature increases than southern tropical regions. Central and southern provinces cooled at the beginning of the 20th century but warmed consistently since the 1970s. Precipitation increased between t1-1940 and t2-1970 across the country, more notably in the northern provinces, and it decreased between t2-1970 and t3-2000 in most of the country. Results on the historical climate conditions in Mexico may be useful for climate change analyses for both environmental and social sciences. Nonetheless, our climatology was based on information from climate stations for which 9.4–36.2% presented inhomogeneities over time probably owing to non-climatic factors, and climate station density changed over time. Therefore, the estimated changes observed in our analysis need to be interpreted cautiously.

DNA Barcoding Silver Butter Catfish (Schilbe intermedius) Reveals Patterns of Mitochondrial Genetic Diversity Across African River Systems

The silver butter catfish (Schilbe intermedius) is widely distributed across African river systems. To date, information on its mitochondrial genetic diversity, population structure, and historical demography are not well-established. Herein, we combined newly generated mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase (COI) subunit I gene sequences with previously published COI sequences in the global databases to reconstruct its phylogeography, population genetic structure, and historical demography. Results from the mtDNA phylogeography and species delimitation tests (Cluster algorithm – Species Identifier, Automatic Barcode Gap Discovery and Poison Tree Process model) revealed that S. intermedius comprises at least seven geographically defined matrilines. Although the overall haplotype diversity of S. intermedius was high (h = 0.90), results showed that East (Kenya) and West (Nigeria) African populations had low levels of haplotype diversity (h = ~0.40). In addition, population genetic polymorphism and historical demographics showed that S. intermedius populations in both East and West Africa underwent severe contractions as a result of biogeographic influences. The patterns of genetic diversity and population structure were consistent with adaptive responses to historical biogeographic factors and contemporary environmental variations across African river systems. This is suggestive of the influence of historical biogeographic factors and climatic conditions on population divergence of S. intermedius across African river systems. Given our discovery of previously underappreciated diversity within S. intermedius, we recommend that this species be considered for increased conservation and management.

Relationship between heatwave-induced forest die-off and climatic suitability in multiple tree species.

In recent decades, many forest die-off events have been reported in relation to climate-change-induced episodes, such as droughts and heat waves. To understand how these extreme climatic events induce forest die-off, it is important to find a tool to standardize the climatic conditions experienced by different populations during a specific climatic event, taking into account the historic climatic conditions of the site where these populations live (bioclimatic niche). In this study, we used estimates of climatic suitability calculated from species distribution models (SDMs) for such purpose. We studied forest die-off across France during the 2003 heatwave that affected Western Europe, using 2,943 forest inventory plots dominated by 14 single tree species. Die-off severity was estimated by Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) loss using Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer remote sensor imagery. Climatic suitability at the local level during the historical 1979-2002 period (HCS), the episode time (2003; ECS) and suitability deviance during the historical period (HCS-SD) were calculated for each species by means of boosted regression tree models using the CHELSA climate database and occurrences extracted from European forest inventories. Low HCS-SD and high mean annual temperature explained the overall regional pattern of vulnerability to die-off across different monospecific forests. The combination of high historical and low episode climatic suitability also contributed significantly to overall forest die-off. Furthermore, we observed different species-specific relationships between die-off vulnerability and climatic suitability: Sub-Mediterranean and Mediterranean species tended to be vulnerable in historically more suitable localities (high HCS), whereas Euro-Siberian species presented greater vulnerability when the hot drought episode was more intense. We demonstrated that at regional scale, past climatic legacy plays an important role in explaining NDVI loss during the episode. Moreover, we demonstrated that SDMs-derived indexes, such as HCS, ECS and HCS-SD, could constitute a tool for standardizing the ways that populations and species experience climatic variability across time and space.

Global-scale drought risk assessment for agricultural systems

Abstract. Droughts continue to affect ecosystems, communities and entire economies. Agriculture bears much of the impact, and in many countries it is the most heavily affected sector. Over the past decades, efforts have been made to assess drought risk at different spatial scales. Here, we present for the first time an integrated assessment of drought risk for both irrigated and rainfed agricultural systems at the global scale. Composite hazard indicators were calculated for irrigated and rainfed systems separately using different drought indices based on historical climate conditions (1980–2016). Exposure was analyzed for irrigated and non-irrigated crops. Vulnerability was assessed through a socioecological-system (SES) perspective, using socioecological susceptibility and lack of coping-capacity indicators that were weighted by drought experts from around the world. The analysis shows that drought risk of rainfed and irrigated agricultural systems displays a heterogeneous pattern at the global level, with higher risk for southeastern Europe as well as northern and southern Africa. By providing information on the drivers and spatial patterns of drought risk in all dimensions of hazard, exposure and vulnerability, the presented analysis can support the identification of tailored measures to reduce drought risk and increase the resilience of agricultural systems.

Process-based models outcompete correlative models in projecting spring phenology of trees in a future warmer climate

Many phenology models have been developed to explain historical trends in plant phenology and to forecast future ones. Two main types of model can be distinguished: correlative models, that statistically relate descriptors of climate to the date of occurrence of a phenological event, and process-based models that build upon explicit causal relationships determined experimentally. While process-based models are believed to provide more robust projections in novel conditions, it is still unclear whether this assertion always holds true and why. In addition, the efficiency and robustness of the two model categories have rarely been compared. Here we aimed at comparing the efficiency and the robustness of correlative and process-based phenology models with contrasting levels of complexity in both historical and future climatic conditions. Models were calibrated, validated and compared using budburst dates of five tree species across the French Alps collected during 8 years by a citizen-science program. Process-based models were less efficient, yet more robust than correlative models, even when their parameter estimates relied entirely on inverse modeling, i.e. parameter values estimated using observed budburst dates and optimization algorithms. Their robustness further slightly increased when their parameter estimates relied on forward estimation, i.e. parameter values measured experimentally. Our results therefore suggest that the robustness of process-based models comes both from the fact that they describe causal relationships and the fact that their parameters can be directly measured. Process-based models projected a reduction in the phenological cline along the elevation gradient for all species by the end of the 21st century. This was due to a delaying effect of winter warming at low elevation where conditions will move away from optimal chilling conditions that break bud dormancy vs an advancing effect of spring warming at high elevation where optimal chilling conditions for dormancy release will persist even under the most pessimistic emissions scenario RCP 8.5. These results advocate for increasing efforts in developing process-based phenology models as well as forward modelling, in order to provide accurate projections in future climatic conditions.

Mating system and historical climate conditions affect population mean seed mass: Evidence for adaptation and a new component of the selfing syndrome in Clarkia

Abstract The evolution of seed size may be influenced by intrinsic attributes of populations, such as mating system and extrinsic factors, such as climate. Several hypotheses propose that the evolution of self‐fertilization from an outcrossing progenitor will be accompanied by a reduction in seed size, but this prediction has not been rigorously tested. Many studies report that the mean seed size of populations or taxa is associated with long‐term climate conditions. Here, we examined the effects on seed size of both mating system and climate within a single genus. In the California wildflower genus, Clarkia (Onagraceae), we sampled seeds from 58 populations representing three pairs of sister taxa; each pair included a predominantly outcrossing and a facultatively selfing taxon. We then examined the independent effects on population mean seed size of mating system, elevation, long‐term (30‐year) climate conditions, and climate anomalies (the deviation between conditions in the year of collection and the long‐term mean), focusing on maximum monthly temperature (Tmax), cumulative moisture deficit and cumulative precipitation (PPT) during Clarkia's growing season (fall, winter and spring). In each taxon pair, the selfing taxon had smaller seeds than the outcrosser. Local, long‐term (1921–1980 and 1981–2000) mean Tmax, PPT and elevation were independently and negatively associated with seed size. Long‐term means for Tmax and PPT explain geographical variation in seed size better than climate anomalies in the year of collection. Synthesis. We corroborated two key hypotheses concerning the drivers of geographical variation in mean seed size. Small seeds in Clarkia co‐evolve with selfing (although the mechanism remains elusive) and in response to chronically warm and wet conditions. The effect of long‐term mean precipitation on seed size differs qualitatively from the effect of precipitation anomalies; relatively large seeds are produced in populations experiencing wetter‐than‐normal years. Ongoing climate change may therefore generate conflicting selection on seed size in Clarkia: intensifying drought is likely to lead to an evolutionary increase in seed size due to its effects on seedling survivorship, while climate‐driven declines in pollinators or selection favouring more rapid reproduction may promote the evolution of self‐pollination, facilitating the evolution of smaller seeds.