Historical Climate Simulations Research Articles

The Asian–Pacific Oscillation pattern in CMIP5 simulations of historical and future climate

ABSTRACTBased on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations, this article evaluated the performance of 33 coupled models in simulating the summer Asian–Pacific Oscillation (APO) pattern and projected its change under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The results show that most of the individual models have good capacity to simulate the climate mean state of the spatial structure of the summer APO pattern, while some have poor skill in modelling its secular trend and interannual variability. The multimodel ensemble mean (MME) generally outperforms the individual models. It not only well reproduces the spatial distribution of the observed APO pattern, but also reasonably captures the observed negative trend and interannual variability of the APO. The MME projects a decrease in the APO intensity towards the end of 21st century under both the RCP4.5 and the RCP8.5 scenarios. Large differences in projected change under the two forcing scenarios start to emerge about in the 2040s, with larger decreasing under the RCP8.5 than that under the RCP4.5. Over the course of the second half of the 21st century, the APO pattern will shift eastward slightly in addition to the weakening in intensity as compared to the 1950–2005 mean climate. For the individual models, the majority of models agree on the sign of projected decreasing change in the APO intensity and also exhibit a stronger change under the RCP8.5 scenario than under the RCP4.5 scenario.

Does El Niño intensity matter for California precipitation?

AbstractThe sensitivity of California precipitation to El Niño intensity is investigated by applying a multimodel ensemble of historical climate simulations to estimate how November–April precipitation probability distributions vary across three categorizations of El Niño intensity. Weak and moderate El Niño events fail to appreciably alter wet or dry risks across northern and central California, though odds for wet conditions increase across southern California during moderate El Niño. Significant increases in wet probabilities occur during strong El Niño events across the entire state. In California's main northern watershed regions, simulations indicate an 85% chance of greater than normal precipitation and a 50% probability of at least 125% of normal. Our results indicate that both the statewide average and the spatial distribution of California precipitation are sensitive to El Niño intensity. Forecasts of El Niño intensity would thus contribute to improved situational awareness for California water planning and related water resource impacts.

Evaluation of a CMIP5 derived dynamical global wind wave climate model ensemble

Much effort has gone into evaluating the skill of General Circulation Models (GCMs) for ‘standard’ climate variables such as surface (air and/or sea) temperature, or precipitation. Whether climate model skill to simulate standard variables translates to the performance of dynamical GCM forced wind–wave simulations is yet to be established.We assess an ensemble of historical dynamical wave climate simulations whereby surface winds taken from GCMs participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) are used to force a spectral wave model. The GCMs used include 8 CMIP5 models and two dynamically downscaled CMIP3 models.The climatological properties of key integrated wave parameters (significant wave height, maximum wave height, mean wave period and direction) are evaluated, using two independent methods, relative to three historical wave hindcast/reanalysis datasets over 13 areas of the global ocean.We identify that high performance of GCMs for 'standard' climate variables does not imply high performance for GCM forced wave simulations. We also identify there is little to no benefit in choosing a higher resolution CMIP5 GCM (with resolution of ∼1.4°) over a lower resolution GCM (∼2.8°) to improve skill of GCM forced dynamical wave simulations. With the conscious push towards developing projections of waves and storm surges to aid assessments of possible climate driven impacts to coastal communities, we stress the need to evaluate the performance of a GCM for the marine meteorological climate independently of the performance of the GCM for the ‘standard' climate variables.

Double ITCZ in Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Models: From CMIP3 to CMIP5

Recent progress in reducing the double Intertropical Convergence Zone bias in coupled climate models is examined based on multimodel ensembles of historical climate simulations from Phase 3 and Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5). Biases common to CMIP3 and CMIP5 models include spurious precipitation maximum in the southeastern Pacific, warmer sea surface temperature (SST), weaker easterly, and stronger meridional wind divergences away from the equator relative to observations. It is found that there is virtually no improvement in all these measures from the CMIP3 ensemble to the CMIP5 ensemble models. The five best models in the two ensembles as measured by the spatial correlations are also assessed. No progress can be identified in the subensembles of the five best models from CMIP3 to CMIP5 even though more models participated in CMIP5; the biases of excessive precipitation and overestimated SST in southeastern Pacific are even worse in the CMIP5 models.

Köppen bioclimatic evaluation of CMIP historical climate simulations

Köppen bioclimatic classification relates generic vegetation types to characteristics of the interactive annual-cycles of continental temperature (T) and precipitation (P). In addition to predicting possible bioclimatic consequences of past or prospective climate change, a Köppen scheme can be used to pinpoint biases in model simulations of historical T and P. In this study a Köppen evaluation of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) simulations of historical climate is conducted for the period 1980–1999. Evaluation of an example CMIP5 model illustrates how errors in simulating Köppen vegetation types (relative to those derived from observational reference data) can be deconstructed and related to model-specific temperature and precipitation biases. Measures of CMIP model skill in simulating the reference Köppen vegetation types are also developed, allowing the bioclimatic performance of a CMIP5 simulation of T and P to be compared quantitatively with its CMIP3 antecedent. Although certain bioclimatic discrepancies persist across model generations, the CMIP5 models collectively display an improved rendering of historical T and P relative to their CMIP3 counterparts. In addition, the Köppen-based performance metrics are found to be quite insensitive to alternative choices of observational reference data or to differences in model horizontal resolution.

Precipitation changes in wet and dry seasons over the 20th century simulated by two versions of the FGOALS model

Seasonal precipitation changes over the globe during the 20th century simulated by two versions of the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System (FGOALS) model are assessed. The two model versions differ in terms of their AGCM component, but the remaining parts of the system are almost identical. Both models reasonably reproduce the mean-state features of the timings of the wet and dry seasons and related precipitation amounts, with pattern correlation coefficients of 0.65–0.84 with observations. Globally averaged seasonal precipitation changes are analyzed. The results show that wet seasons get wetter and the annual range (precipitation difference between wet and dry seasons) increases during the 20th century in the two models, with positive trends covering most parts of the globe, which is consistent with observations. However, both models show a moistening dry season, which is opposite to observations. Analysis of the globally averaged moisture budget in the historical climate simulations of the two models shows little change in the horizontal moisture advection in both the wet and dry seasons. The globally averaged seasonal precipitation changes are mainly dominated by the changes in evaporation and vertical moisture advection. Evaporation and vertical moisture advection combine to make wet seasons wetter and enhance the annual range. In the dry season, the opposite change of evaporation and vertical moisture advection leads to an insignificant change in precipitation. Vertical moisture advection is the most important term that determines the changes in precipitation, wherein the thermodynamic component is dominant and the dynamic component tends to offset the effect of the thermodynamic component.

Bidecadal North Atlantic ocean circulation variability controlled by timing of volcanic eruptions

While bidecadal climate variability has been evidenced in several North Atlantic paleoclimate records, its drivers remain poorly understood. Here we show that the subset of CMIP5 historical climate simulations that produce such bidecadal variability exhibits a robust synchronization, with a maximum in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) 15 years after the 1963 Agung eruption. The mechanisms at play involve salinity advection from the Arctic and explain the timing of Great Salinity Anomalies observed in the 1970s and the 1990s. Simulations, as well as Greenland and Iceland paleoclimate records, indicate that coherent bidecadal cycles were excited following five Agung-like volcanic eruptions of the last millennium. Climate simulations and a conceptual model reveal that destructive interference caused by the Pinatubo 1991 eruption may have damped the observed decreasing trend of the AMOC in the 2000s. Our results imply a long-lasting climatic impact and predictability following the next Agung-like eruption.

Using large-scale diagnostic quantities to investigate change in East Coast Lows

East Coast Lows (ECLs) are intense low- pressure systems that affect the eastern seaboard of Australia. They have attracted research interest for both their destructive nature and water supplying capabil- ity. Estimating the changes in ECLs in the future has a major impact on emergency response as well as water management strategies for the coastal communities on the east coast of Australia. In this study, ECLs were identi- fied using two large-scale diagnostic quantities: isen- tropic potential vorticity (IPV) and geostrophic vorticity (GV), which were calculated from outputs of historical and future regional climate simulations from the NSW/ ACT regional climate modelling (NARCliM) project. The diagnostic results for the historical period were evaluated against a subjective ECL event database. Future simula- tions using a high emission scenario were examined to estimate changes in frequency, duration, and intensity of ECLs. The use of a relatively high resolution regional cli- mate model makes this the first study to examine future changes in ECLs while resolving the full range of ECL sizes which can be as small as 100-200 km in diameter. The results indicate that it is likely that there will be

Paleoclimate modeling in China: A review

This paper provides a review of paleoclimate modeling activities in China. Rather than attempt to cover all topics, we have chosen a few climatic intervals and events judged to be particularly informative to the international community. In historical climate simulations, changes in solar radiation and volcanic activity explain most parts of reconstructions over the last millennium prior to the industrial era, while atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations play the most important role in the 20th century warming over China. There is a considerable model-data mismatch in the annual and boreal winter temperature change over China during the mid-Holocene [6000 years before present (ka BP)], while coupled models with an interactive ocean generally perform better than atmospheric models. For the Last Glacial Maximum (21 ka BP), climate models successfully reproduce the surface cooling trend over China but fail to reproduce its magnitude, with a better performance for coupled models. At that time, reconstructed vegetation and western Pacific sea surface temperatures could have significantly affected the East Asian climate, and environmental conditions on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau were most likely very different to the present day. During the late Marine Isotope Stage 3 (30–40 ka BP), orbital forcing and Northern Hemisphere glaciation, as well as vegetation change in China, were likely responsible for East Asian climate change. On the tectonic scale, the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau uplift, the Tethys Sea retreat, and the South China Sea expansion played important roles in the formation of the East Asian monsoon-dominant environment pattern during the late Cenozoic.

Earliest local emergence of forced dynamic and steric sea-level trends in climate models

We investigate the impact of internal variability on the emergence of a forced local trend in steric and dynamic sea surface height in historical and future climate simulations. By analyzing the unforced control simulations, the magnitude of internally generated, local trends in sea surface height is quantified and compared to trends found in historical simulations and projections. We find that the timing of the emergence of a forced local signal depends strongly on the location and the year in which the trend computations are started. Starting in 1950, it takes at least 60 yr to detect a forced trend in regions of weak internal variability such as the tropical Atlantic Ocean while this period is reduced to 30 yr when starting in 1990. The detection of a forced trend is further delayed by several decades in regions of elevated internal variability.

Chinese contribution to CMIP5: An overview of five Chinese models’ performances

An overview of Chinese contribution to Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-Phase 5 (CMIP5) is presented. The performances of five Chinese Climate/Earth System Models that participated in the CMIP5 project are assessed in the context of climate mean states, seasonal cycle, intraseasonal oscillation, interannual variability, interdecadal variability, global monsoon, Asian-Australian monsoon, 20th-century historical climate simulation, climate change projection, and climate sensitivity. Both the strengths and weaknesses of the models are evaluated. The models generally show reasonable performances in simulating sea surface temperature (SST) mean state, seasonal cycle, spatial patterns of Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) amplitude and tropical cyclone Genesis Potential Index (GPI), global monsoon precipitation pattern, El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) related SST anomalies. However, the performances of the models in simulating the time periods, amplitude, and phase locking of ENSO, PDO time periods, GPI magnitude, MJO propagation, magnitude of SST seasonal cycle, northwestern Pacific monsoon and North American monsoon domains, as well as the skill of large-scale Asian monsoon precipitation need to be improved. The model performances in simulating the time evolution and spatial pattern of the 20th-century global warming and the future change under representative concentration pathways projection are compared to the multimodel ensemble of CMIP5 models. The model discrepancies in terms of climate sensitivity are also discussed.

Irrigation as an historical climate forcing

Irrigation is the single largest anthropogenic water use, a modification of the land surface that significantly affects surface energy budgets, the water cycle, and climate. Irrigation, however, is typically not included in standard historical general circulation model (GCM) simulations along with other anthropogenic and natural forcings. To investigate the importance of irrigation as an anthropogenic climate forcing, we conduct two 5-member ensemble GCM experiments. Both are setup identical to the historical forced (anthropogenic plus natural) scenario used in version 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, but in one experiment we also add water to the land surface using a dataset of historically estimated irrigation rates. Irrigation has a negligible effect on the global average radiative balance at the top of the atmosphere, but causes significant cooling of global average surface air temperatures over land and dampens regional warming trends. This cooling is regionally focused and is especially strong in Western North America, the Mediterranean, the Middle East, and Asia. Irrigation enhances cloud cover and precipitation in these same regions, except for summer in parts of Monsoon Asia, where irrigation causes a reduction in monsoon season precipitation. Irrigation cools the surface, reducing upward fluxes of longwave radiation (increasing net longwave), and increases cloud cover, enhancing shortwave reflection (reducing net shortwave). The relative magnitude of these two processes causes regional increases (northern India) or decreases (Central Asia, China) in energy availability at the surface and top of the atmosphere. Despite these changes in net radiation, however, climate responses are due primarily to larger magnitude shifts in the Bowen ratio from sensible to latent heating. Irrigation impacts on temperature, precipitation, and other climate variables are regionally significant, even while other anthropogenic forcings (anthropogenic aerosols, greenhouse gases, etc.) dominate the long term climate evolution in the simulations. To better constrain the magnitude and uncertainties of irrigation-forced climate anomalies, irrigation should therefore be considered as another important anthropogenic climate forcing in the next generation of historical climate simulations and multi-model assessments.

Transient climate changes in a perturbed parameter ensemble of emissions-driven earth system model simulations

We describe results from a 57-member ensemble of transient climate change simulations, featuring simultaneous perturbations to 54 parameters in the atmosphere, ocean, sulphur cycle and terrestrial ecosystem components of an earth system model (ESM). These emissions-driven simulations are compared against the CMIP3 multi-model ensemble of physical climate system models, used extensively to inform previous assessments of regional climate change, and also against emissions-driven simulations from ESMs contributed to the CMIP5 archive. Members of our earth system perturbed parameter ensemble (ESPPE) are competitive with CMIP3 and CMIP5 models in their simulations of historical climate. In particular, they perform reasonably well in comparison with HadGEM2-ES, a more sophisticated and expensive earth system model contributed to CMIP5. The ESPPE therefore provides a computationally cost-effective tool to explore interactions between earth system processes. In response to a non-intervention emissions scenario, the ESPPE simulates distributions of future regional temperature change characterised by wide ranges, and warm shifts, compared to those of CMIP3 models. These differences partly reflect the uncertain influence of global carbon cycle feedbacks in the ESPPE. In addition, the regional effects of interactions between different earth system feedbacks, particularly involving physical and ecosystem processes, shift and widen the ESPPE spread in normalised patterns of surface temperature and precipitation change in many regions. Significant differences from CMIP3 also arise from the use of parametric perturbations (rather than a multimodel ensemble) to represent model uncertainties, and this is also the case when ESPPE results are compared against parallel emissions-driven simulations from CMIP5 ESMs. When driven by an aggressive mitigation scenario, the ESPPE and HadGEM2-ES reveal significant but uncertain impacts in limiting temperature increases during the second half of the twenty-first century. Emissions-driven simulations create scope for development of errors in properties that were previously prescribed in coupled ocean–atmosphere models, such as historical CO2 concentrations and vegetation distributions. In this context, historical intra-ensemble variations in the airborne fraction of CO2 emissions, and in summer soil moisture in northern hemisphere continental regions, are shown to be potentially useful constraints, subject to uncertainties in the relevant observations. Our results suggest that future climate-related risks can be assessed more comprehensively by updating projection methodologies to support formal combination of emissions-driven perturbed parameter and multi-model earth system model simulations with suitable observational constraints. This would provide scenarios underpinned by a more complete representation of the chain of uncertainties from anthropogenic emissions to future climate outcomes.

Tropical Biases in CMIP5 Multimodel Ensemble: The Excessive Equatorial Pacific Cold Tongue and Double ITCZ Problems*

Abstract Errors of coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) limit their utility for climate prediction and projection. Origins of and feedback for tropical biases are investigated in the historical climate simulations of 18 CGCMs from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), together with the available Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) simulations. Based on an intermodel empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of tropical Pacific precipitation, the excessive equatorial Pacific cold tongue and double intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) stand out as the most prominent errors of the current generation of CGCMs. The comparison of CMIP–AMIP pairs enables us to identify whether a given type of errors originates from atmospheric models. The equatorial Pacific cold tongue bias is associated with deficient precipitation and surface easterly wind biases in the western half of the basin in CGCMs, but these errors are absent in atmosphere-only models, indicating that the errors arise from the interaction with the ocean via Bjerknes feedback. For the double ITCZ problem, excessive precipitation south of the equator correlates well with excessive downward solar radiation in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) midlatitudes, an error traced back to atmospheric model simulations of cloud during austral spring and summer. This extratropical forcing of the ITCZ displacements is mediated by tropical ocean–atmosphere interaction and is consistent with recent studies of ocean–atmospheric energy transport balance.

A possible explanation on the changes in the spatial structure of ENSO from CMIP3 to CMIP5

AbstractThis study examines changes in the structure of El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) amplitude using the historical climate simulations of the World Climate Research Program Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) phase‐3 and phase‐5 coupled general circulation models (CGCMs). The analysis focuses on the “so‐called” Bjerknes feedback. The Bjerknes feedback affects the sea surface temperature (SST) variability differently between the CMIP3 and CMIP5 models. In the CMIP5 models, the strength of the Bjerknes feedback is associated with the amplitude of ENSO, whereas the changes in the strength of Bjerknes feedback are not associated with changes in ENSO amplitude in CMIP3 CGCMs. The relationship between the Bjerknes feedback and the SST anomaly variance is suggested as a possible explanation for the eastward shift in the SST anomaly variance in CMIP5 relative to CMIP3.

Hydrologic benchmarking of meteorological drought indices at interannual to climate change timescales: a case study over the Amazon and Mississippi river basins

Abstract. Widely used metrics of drought are still derived solely from analyses of meteorological variables such as precipitation and temperature. While drought is generally a consequence of atmospheric anomalies, the impacts to society are more directly related to hydrologic conditions. The present study uses a standardized runoff index (SRI) as a proxy for river discharge and as a benchmark for various meteorological drought indices (scPDSI, SPI, SPEI_th, and SPEI_hg respectively). Only 12-month duration droughts are considered in order to allow a direct (no river routing) comparison between meteorological anomalies and their hydrological counterpart. The analysis is conducted over the Mississippi and Amazon river basins, which provide two contrasted test beds for evaluating drought indices at both interannual (using detrended data) and climate change (using raw data) timescales. Looking first at observations over the second half of the 20th century, the simple SPI based solely on precipitation is no less suitable than more sophisticated meteorological drought indices at detecting interannual SRI variations. Using the detrended runoff and meteorological outputs of a five-member single model ensemble of historical and 21th century climate simulations leads to the same conclusion. Looking at the 21st century projections, the response of the areal fraction in drought to global warming is shown to be strongly metric dependent and potentially overestimated by the drought indices which account for temperature variations. These results suggest that empirical meteorological drought indices should be considered with great caution in a warming climate and that more physical water balance models are needed to account for the impact of the anthropogenic radiative forcings on hydrological droughts.

Is there a linkage between the tropical cyclone activity in the southern Indian Ocean and the Antarctic Oscillation?

AbstractIn this article, the relationship between the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) and the tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the southern Indian Ocean (SIO) was examined. It was found that on the interannual time scale, the AAO is well linked with the TC activity in the SIO during TC season (December–March). The rank correlation coefficient between the AAO index and the TC frequency (TCF) in the SIO is 0.37, which is significant at the 95% confidence level. When the AAO is in a positive phase, TC passage in the northwestern coast of Australia (100E°–120°E and 10°S–30°S) increases by approximately 50%–100% from the climatology. The increase in the TC passage is primarily the result of more frequent TCs originating in this region due to enhanced water vapor convergence and ascending motions, which are caused by a cyclonic height anomaly over the western coast of Australia associated with the positive AAO phases. In addition, the AAO‐height covariations, which are essential to the formation of the AAO‐TC links in the SIO, were investigated through a historical climate simulation using the Community Climate System Model 4 from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. The AAO‐height links were well reproduced in the simulation. The similarity in the AAO‐height links between the observation and the simulation supports the physical robustness of the AAO‐TC links in the SIO.

Influence of the circumglobal wave-train on European summer precipitation

We investigate European summer (July–August) precipitation variability and its global teleconnections using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data (1950–2010) and a historical Coupled Model Intercomparison Project climate simulation (1901–2005) carried out using the ECHAM6/MPIOM climate model. A wavelike pattern is found in the upper tropospheric levels (200 hPa) similar to the summer circumglobal wave train (CGT) extending from the North Pacific to the Eurasian region. The positive phase of the CGT is associated with upper level anomalous low (high) pressure over western (eastern) Europe. It is further associated with a dipole-like precipitation pattern over Europe entailing significantly enhanced (reduced) precipitation over the western (eastern) region. The anomalous circulation features and associated summer precipitation pattern over Europe inverts for the negative CGT phase. Accordingly, the global teleconnection pattern of a precipitation index summarizing summer precipitation over Western Europe entails an upper level signature which consists of a CGT-like wave pattern extending from the North Pacific to Eurasia. The imprint of the CGT on European summer precipitation is distinct from that of the summer North Atlantic Oscillation, despite the two modes of variability bear strong similarities in their upper level atmospheric pattern over Western Europe. The analysis of simulated CGT features and of its climatic implications for the European region substantiates the existence of the CGT-European summer precipitation connection. The summer CGT in the mid-latitude therefore adds to the list of the modes of large-scale atmospheric variability significantly influencing European summer precipitation variability.

Strengthening of ocean heat uptake efficiency associated with the recent climate hiatus

AbstractThe rate of increase of global‐mean surface air temperature (SATg) has apparently slowed during the last decade. We investigated the extent to which state‐of‐the‐art general circulation models (GCMs) can capture this hiatus period by using multimodel ensembles of historical climate simulations. While the SATg linear trend for the last decade is not captured by their ensemble means regardless of differences in model generation and external forcing, it is barely represented by an 11‐member ensemble of a GCM, suggesting an internal origin of the hiatus associated with active heat uptake by the oceans. Besides, we found opposite changes in ocean heat uptake efficiency (κ), weakening in models and strengthening in nature, which explain why the models tend to overestimate the SATg trend. The weakening of κ commonly found in GCMs seems to be an inevitable response of the climate system to global warming, suggesting the recovery from hiatus in coming decades.

How Does a Regional Climate Model Modify the Projected Climate Change Signal of the Driving GCM: A Study over Different CORDEX Regions Using REMO

Global and regional climate model simulations are frequently used for regional climate change assessments and in climate impact modeling studies. To reflect the inherent and methodological uncertainties in climate modeling, the assessment of regional climate change requires ensemble simulations from different global and regional climate model combinations. To interpret the spread of simulated results, it is useful to understand how the climate change signal is modified in the GCM-RCM modelmodelgeneral circulation model-regional climate model (GCM-RCM) chain. This kind of information can also be useful for impact modelers; for the process of experiment design and when interpreting model results. In this study, we investigate how the simulated historical and future climate of the Max-Planck-Institute earth system model (MPI-ESM) is modified by dynamic downscaling with the regional model REMO in different world regions. The historical climate simulations for 1950–2005 are driven by observed anthropogenic forcing. The climate projections are driven by projected anthropogenic forcing according to different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The global simulations are downscaled with REMO over the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) domains Africa, Europe, South America and West Asia from 2006–2100. This unique set of simulations allows for climate type specific analysis across multiple world regions and for multi-scenarios. We used a classification of climate types by Köppen-Trewartha to define evaluation regions with certain climate conditions. A systematic comparison of near-surface temperature and precipitation simulated by the regional and the global model is done. In general, the historical time period is well represented by the GCM and the RCM. Some different biases occur in the RCM compared to the GCM as in the Amazon Basin, northern Africa and the West Asian domain. Both models project similar warming, although somewhat less so by the RCM for certain regions and climate types. A common feature in regions of tropical climate types is that REMO shows dryer climate conditions than forMax Planck Institute for Meteorology-Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, leading to an opposing sign in the climate change signal. With an increase in radiative forcing from RCP 2.6 to RCP 8.5 and towards the end of the 21st century, some of the detected differences between GCM and RCM are more pronounced.