Higher Turnout Research Articles

Do gifts buy votes? Evidence from sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America

Vote-buying—or the pre-electoral distribution of private goods in exchange for support at the ballot box—is often blamed for the poor economic performance of many developing countries. By pressuring individuals to vote against their own interest, vote-buying may undermine accountability and the implementation of sound development policies. Yet, these effects depend on it leading to electoral outcomes that would not have occurred otherwise. In this paper we use survey data from 17 sub-Saharan African elections between 2000 and 2005 and 20 Latin American elections between 2005 and 2010 to show that, despite its widespread prevalence, vote-buying has a limited electoral impact on average: in only 11 of 37 elections are gifts-for-votes practices correlated with higher turnout; yet, in only very few elections could have these gifts translated into visible electoral advantages for a particular party. This contrasts with common perceptions about the effectiveness of electoral handouts and the quality of the elections in these regions.

Online engagement with 2020 election misinformation and turnout in the 2021 Georgia runoff election.

Following the 2020 general election, Republican elected officials, including then-President Donald Trump, promoted conspiracy theories claiming that Joe Biden's close victory in Georgia was fraudulent. Such conspiratorial claims could implicate participation in the Georgia Senate runoff election in different ways-signaling that voting doesn't matter, distracting from ongoing campaigns, stoking political anger at out-partisans, or providing rationalizations for (lack of) enthusiasm for voting during a transfer of power. Here, we evaluate the possibility of any on-average relationship with turnout by combining behavioral measures of engagement with election conspiracies online and administrative data on voter turnout for 40,000 Twitter users registered to vote in Georgia. We find small, limited associations. Liking or sharing messages opposed to conspiracy theories was associated with higher turnout than expected in the runoff election, and those who liked or shared tweets promoting fraud-related conspiracy theories were slightly less likely to vote.

Sejmik płocki w latach 1817–1830

The Płock assembly of 1817–1830 The article demonstrates the functioning of the assembly (sejmik) of the district of Płock in 1817–1830. Far from being a place where the government and opposition clashed, this assembly represents a large group of electoral assemblies about which we know relatively little. With around 800 registered voters, it was dominated by the petty nobility. The voters (who had to meet the criteria of belonging to the nobility and owning property) are analysed in two dimensions: their registration in the civic registers and their participation in the deliberations. Surviving voter lists as well as lists of assembly attendees by year make it possible to examine the impact of the following four factors on turnout: age, wealth (tax paid), literacy, and distance between place of residence and venue of the assembly. When it comes to age, there is a higher turnout in the 50–59 age group. Wealth had little impact on participation in the assembly – turnout among the wealthier landowners and petty nobility did not differ much. Nor was illiteracy a major factor influencing turnout – around a half of those in the voter lists and among the attendees were illiterate. The biggest influence on attendance was that of the distance from assembly venue. The article contains a detailed analysis of the assemblies of 1817, 1818, 1820 and 1822. In the elections at these assemblies, representatives of the former local elite and those who had recently distinguished themselves in the Duchy of Warsaw period lost to Tomasz Trzciński, a man popular among the petty nobility, who did not come from this elite and had not previously held any important offices. He was a dominant figure in the political life of the district, often chairing the assembly sessions and being elected deputy to the parliament. He was also able to bring about the election of a government candidate as his successor.

Vote Mobilization, Economic Performance and Gubernatorial Appointments in Russia

Abstract This paper explores the impact of vote mobilization and economic performance on gubernatorial appointments in Russia. Previous research has demonstrated that governors are more likely to be reappointed when the regime is performing well at the polls in the region. By contrast, there is inconsistent evidence that regional economic performance affects a governor’s reappointment chances. We revisit this topic by updating and extending quantitative analyses of these key questions. We find consistent evidence that governors are more likely to be reappointed when regime vote shares are high in the region, a finding that extends from 2005 through 2020 and is robust to various model specifications and measurement approaches. In an update to existing research, we also show that this finding holds for multiple types of elections – regional legislative, State Duma and presidential – and we also find that high turnout is positively associated with governor reappointment. With respect to economic indicators, we find some suggestive evidence that governors are more likely to be reappointed when regional unemployment is decreasing, and investment and tax revenue are increasing, but these results are not robust. By evaluating governors on the basis of their ability to mobilize votes the center risks disincentivizing good governance. It may also give governors additional incentive to engage in electoral manipulation.

Protesters at the news gates: An experimental study of journalists’ news judgment of protest events

Abstract Media attention is a key political resource for protesters. This implies that journalists are a crucial audience to which protesters seek to appeal. We study to what extent features of protest, of journalists, and of news organizations affect journalists’ news judgment. We exposed 78 Spanish journalists to vignettes of asylum seeker protests. Four features were systematically manipulated: protesters’ worthiness, unity, numbers, and commitment (WUNC). The experiments scrutinize the extent to which journalists consider a protest newsworthy (presence) and the likelihood that a protest is featured on a newspaper’s front page (prominence). Our results show that in terms of media presence, high turnout is key. Highly unified protesters, in contrast, are considered less newsworthy. Regarding prominence, strongly committed demonstrators more easily make it to the frontpage. Individual characteristics of journalists have no direct effect on news judgment. Journalists’ editorial status and ideological (outlet) placement only moderate the effect of some of the protest features, although in terms of front-page placement a more potent adversary versus ally effect is distinguished.

Raising Concerns and Trainee Well-being: What Are the Issues?

AimsRaising concerns is an important part of being a doctor and part of the GMC ‘Good Medical Practice’ guidelines, however as a trainee it often comes with specific challenges. Historically trainees are often left feeling that their concerns are not taken seriously and there is no resolution to problems raised. Here we present the findings of a scoping exercise undertaken as part of a Quality Improvement project exploring these issues within a large mental health Trust.MethodsTrainees across all training grades from Foundation doctors to higher trainees were invited to engage in virtual focus groups specific to their training programme. Contributions were analysed anonymously using a thematic analysis approach by two independent coders. Quantitative data were also gathered using an online survey to capture trainees who had been unable to attend a focus group.ResultsKey results included: •A total of 6 focus groups were attended by more than 35 trainees, with high turnout particularly within Foundation trainees and CT1 doctors.•Three key themes were identified from the qualitative data: difficulties with the process of raising concerns, fear of the consequences and challenging the culture of the organisation.•It was noted that senior trainees felt more comfortable with the process of raising concerns compared with junior colleagues but were more apathetic about the impact of doing so.•12 trainees completed the online survey. Of these, 6 (50%) reported having had patient safety concerns and 7 (58%) had had concerns about their training.•The most common reported barriers to raising concerns were the impact on working relationships (67%), lack of support (50%) and fear of repercussions on their training (50%). 42% of respondents were unsure of how to raise concerns.•Trainee suggestions for change included improved information for trainees and trainers about the process for raising concerns, sharing of feedback about concerns raised more widely and regular opportunity to meet with key stakeholders.ConclusionThe majority of trainees had experienced concerns about either patient safety or training issues. It will be necessary to address the multiple barriers highlighted to enable trainees to feel more confident and able to raise concerns. Increasing awareness of escalation processes, improving the processes themselves and fostering a supportive environment which encourages and supports trainees to raise concerns will be important given the implications for patient safety and trainee well-being.

Early career researchers have questions about peer review—we asked the ASLO editors for answers

Early career researchers have questions about peer review—we asked the <scp><i>ASLO</i></scp> editors for answers

КОГДА АВТОРИТАРНЫЕ ВЫБОРЫ КОНКУРЕНТНЫ? СЛУЧАЙ ВЫБОРОВ В ЗАКОНОДАТЕЛЬНОЕ СОБРАНИЕ Г. САНКТ-ПЕТЕРБУРГА

Elections in authoritarian regimes are commonly defined as “unfair and uncompetitive,” but is it always true? The author argues that in the case of the heterogeneity of elite groups in the region and the emergence of a conflict among them, regional elections become an "arena for confrontation" for competing actors of the political system. To test this assertion, data on the results of elections and the characteristics of election campaigns in 25 single-member districts in the elections to the Legislative Assembly of St. Petersburg in 2021 are used. With the method of qualitative comparative analysis (QCA), the hypothesis of the existing conflict among elite groups is confirmed. In case the city administration "approved" a candidate from the opposition party instead of the ruling one, and also if the previous deputy in the district is not re-elected in the same district, the elections are competitive, and the victory of a particular candidate is unpredictable. As a result of the analysis, such factors of election competitiveness as the number of candidates on the ballot and high turnout are also identified. Thus, in the event of a conflict between regional elites, authoritarian elections fulfill their original function: serve as platforms for the competitive struggle of various political groups.

The Profile of the Romanian Voter in European Elections

A European voter is a person who has their own political, social, and cultural background, while sharing a main goal with other Europeans: preserving democracy and the values and benefits that it entails. With more than 400 million people eligible to vote the result of the European elections has a great impact on European policies and national agendas. The turnout average in 2019 European elections was 50,66%, but for Romania, although it was close to average, 51.20%, it registered a significant step forward. In 2007 the Romanian people voted for the first time for the European Parliament, but only 29,22% out of the over 18 million Romanian electors cast their vote. The trend was similar until last year. What has happened in the last decade in Romania that has driven a twofold increase in turnout? Political turmoil has fueled political participation: higher turnout and protests against governmental actions. Focused on European elections, the study of the Romanian voter profile is based on the results of exit polls conducted in 2014 and 2019 in European elections held in Romania, with insight on social and political changes that have shaped the electoral behaviour of Romanians as citizens of the European Union.

Participatory Budget – An Effective Tool for Social Participation and Building Local Identity. A Case Study of the City of Lodz

The aim of the article: The main aim of the article is to present the essence and significance the institution of civic budget as a tool not only allowing citizens to actively participate in the process of deciding about the directions of spending public funds, but also a tool to determine the directions of social expectations, the essence and importance of social participation.&#x0D; Hypothesis: The hypothesis accepted in the study stipulates that the growing popularity of the civic budget makes it an effective tool for social participation.&#x0D; Methodology: The study was based on a literature review, legal acts, information on the functioning of the civic budget in Lodz as well as a questionnaire conducted among the city residents.&#x0D; Results of the research: The civic budget in Lodz has been functioning for eight years, and during this time it has been constantly contributing to the idea of citizen involvement in the decision-making process. Although the budget procedure itself is undergoing numerous corrections and transformations, as the ongoing political, social and macroeconomic changes must be taken into account, it is still a basic tool enabling active participation and involvement of citizens. The matters it concerns are important to the community, and the civic budget offers an opportunity to express their opinions on key issues. The conducted survey indicates that Lodz is a positive example of using the participatory budget mechanism in the city management process. The sustained high (on a Polish scale) turnout confirms the inhabitants’ interest and willingness to change the public space, thus positively influencing the building of a sense of local community.

Discovering the forest in plain sight: a pop-up Symposium focusing on seasonally dry tropical forests.

Discovering the forest in plain sight: a pop-up Symposium focusing on seasonally dry tropical forests.

Participation quorum when voting is costly

Using a pivotal costly voting model of elections, we study how participation quorum requirements affect voters’ decisions to cast votes, and how they ultimately impact voter and candidate welfare. We solve the model analytically for the case of three voters and then provide numerical solutions for larger numbers of voters, and obtain several consistent results. First, we find that the effect of quorum requirements on voter turnout is non-monotonic and depends on ex-ante support for the candidates. When support for the status-quo is low, a stricter quorum requirement results in higher turnout, while when it is high, the relationship is reversed. Second, we show that a stricter quorum requirement does not necessarily benefit a status quo candidate and can sometimes decrease her chances of winning an election. Third, we characterize optimal quorum requirements from the perspective of voter welfare, and find that, while optimal requirements vary with support for the candidates, too strict and too lenient requirements can be very harmful to voter welfare. Therefore, setting moderate quorum requirements close to half of the number of voters or setting no quorum requirement at all may be reasonable choices.

Issues that mobilize Europe. The role of key policy issues for voter turnout in the 2019 European Parliament election

In light of the unexpectedly high turnout in the 2019 European Parliament election, we explore how major transnational policy issues mobilize voters in European electoral contests. Based on the analysis of two data sets, the Eurobarometer post-election survey and the RECONNECT panel survey, we make three important observations. First, European citizens show a higher tendency to participate in European Parliament elections when they attribute greater importance to the issues ‘climate change and environment’, ‘economy and growth’, and ‘immigration’. Second, having a more extreme opinion on the issue of ‘European integration’ increases people's likelihood to vote in European elections. Third, the mobilizing effect of personal issue importance is enhanced by the systemic salience that the respective policy issue has during the election campaign. These findings show the relevance of issue mobilization in European Parliament elections as well as its context-dependent nature.

Different Class Citizens: Understanding the Relationship between Socio-economic Inequality and Voting Abstention

Abstract In most established democracies the turnout gap along class lines has increased substantially since the 1980s. Political participation has become a question of resources: income, property, formal education, secure employment and overall social status determine citizens’ engagement in political decision-making. Using a mixed methods approach, our case-study shows that this also applies to Vienna – an overall rich city with a long tradition of social reform policies, often credited with the highest quality of life in the world. Although Vienna still has a relatively high turnout by international standards, political participation is very unevenly distributed once socio-economic resources are taken into account. Thereby and throughout life, class shapes people’s experiences with and as part of democracy. These experiences in turn have long-term effects on their trust in the political system and on their political self-efficacy. Our findings first and foremost contribute to the ongoing debate on democracy’s social imbalance and show that its consequences already apply on the regional level. The study additionally highlights the usefulness of mixed methods approaches when we aim at a better understanding of the class-based turnout gap.

Voting in a global pandemic: Assessing dueling influences of Covid-19 on turnout.

ObjectiveWe investigate the impact of a global health crisis on political behavior. Specifically, we assess the impact of Covid‐19 incidence rates, and the impact of temporal and spatial proximity to the crisis, on voter turnout in the 2020 Brazilian municipal elections.MethodsWe use Ordinary Least Squares and Spatial Durbin Error models to evaluate sub‐national variation in municipal‐level Covid‐19 incidence and voter turnout. We include controls for political, economic, health, and state context.ResultsCeteris paribus, increasing deaths in the month leading up to the election from 0.01 to 1 per 1000 people is associated with a 5 percentage point decrease in turnout; higher cases and deaths earlier in the pandemic are generally associated with higher turnout. Covid‐19 incidence rates in nearby municipalities affect local turnout in the same directions.ConclusionHigher Covid‐19 incidence near the time of the election decreases voter turnout, while incidence farther from the election increases voter turnout.

District magnitude and electoral mobilization: how uneven electoral systems shift the focus of campaign efforts by political parties

AbstractThis paper shows how an uneven electoral system in Japan shapes political parties' mobilization strategies by utilizing a majoritarian electoral system with heterogeneous district magnitudes, which in turn contributes to the gap in turnout across districts. Scholars have long debated the relationship between electoral systems and turnout; it is known that countries with proportional representation electoral systems – those with larger district magnitude – tend to have higher turnout rates than countries with majoritarian electoral systems, especially single-member district (SMD) systems. The current discussion on turnout and district magnitude of an electoral system assumes a monotonic relationship between these factors: the larger the district magnitude of the electoral system, the more (or less) participatory the electorate, due to competitiveness and mobilization efforts by political parties and other relevant groups. In contrast, this paper shows a mixed relationship between district magnitude of the electoral system and party mobilization and subsequent turnout, investigating a majoritarian electoral system with uneven district magnitude in the Japanese Upper House. During the survey period, the party system in Japan consisted of two major parties and a few smaller parties; consequently, the two major parties focused their efforts on SMDs in order to maximize their seat share, while smaller parties focused their resource on districts electing more than two members (where they have some chance to elect their party's candidates). In combination, these party strategies have resulted in the lowest mobilization and turnout rates in districts with two members.

Asymmetric Partisan Voter Turnout Games

Since Downs proposed that the act of voting is irrational in 1957, myriad models have been proposed to explain voting and account for observed turnout patterns. We propose a model in which partisans consider both the instrumental and expressive benefits of their vote when deciding whether or not to abstain in an election, introducing an asymmetry that most other models do not consider. Allowing learning processes within our electorate, we analyze what evolutionarily stable strategies are rationalizable under various conditions. Upon varying electorate size, the partisan split of the electorate, and the degree to which an electorate takes underdog considerations into account in its payoff structure, we find that different equilibria arise. Our model predicts comparative statics that are consistent with voter behavior, specifically affirming a “size effect,” in which turnout decreases as electorate size increases. Furthermore, relaxing some of our preliminary assumptions eliminates some of the discrepancies between the predictions of our model and empirical voter behavior. In particular, our work demonstrates that misperceptions about the partisan split of an electorate may account for high turnout behavior .

Living Together, Voting Together: Voters Moving in Together Before an Election Have Higher Turnout

AbstractScholars have long noted that couples are more likely to vote compared to individuals who live alone, and that partners' turnout behavior is strongly correlated. This study examines a large administrative dataset containing detailed information about validated turnout and the timing of individuals moving in together, and finds evidence of a substantial and robust increase in turnout after cohabitation. The study exploits the fact that two-voter households moving in together right before an election are comparable to those moving in together right after the election. Depending on the model specification, turnout increases by 3.5 to 10.6 percentage points in the months after taking up cohabitation. Voters are mobilized regardless of their own and their cohabitant's turnout behavior in a previous election. The results are robust to several robustness checks, including benchmarking with singles who move to mitigate the cost of moving in the analysis. The results highlight the importance of social norms and the household's essential role as a proximate social network that increases turnout.

The Demobilizing Effect of Primary Electoral Institutions on Voters of Color

Are electoral institutions – such as closed primaries – associated with reduced levels of participation by people of color? We theorize and find that primary electoral institutions that bar independent voters from participating in first-round elections mechanically reduce participation in primary elections; and also reduce turnout among registered independents in second-round general elections. Closed primaries have large demobilizing impacts on Asian American and Latinx voters, as these voters are registered as independents at higher rates than whites. We examine nationally representative and validated survey data from 2012 to 2018. Open and top-two primaries are associated with higher turnout from independent voters of color in both primary and general elections. Implications are that party registration status and formal institutions differentially demobilize voters of color and whites.

The Making of Social Democracy: The Economic and Electoral Consequences of Norway’s 1936 Folk School Reform

Upon assuming power for the first time in 1935, the Norwegian Labour Party delivered on its promise of a major schooling reform. The reform raised minimum instruction time in less developed rural areas and boosted the resources available to rural schools, reducing class size and increasing teacher salaries. We document that cohorts more intensively affected by the reform significantly increased their education and experienced higher labor income. Our main result is that the schooling reform also substantially increased support for the Norwegian Labour Party in subsequent elections. This additional support persisted for several decades and was pivotal in maintaining support for the social democratic coalition in Norway. These results are not driven by the direct impact of education and are not explained by higher turnout, or greater attention or resources from the Labour Party targeted towards the municipalities most affected by the reform. Rather, our evidence suggests that cohorts that benefited from the schooling reform, and their parents, rewarded the party for delivering a major reform that was beneficial to them.