Higher GDP Research Articles

Desacoplamento entre as Emissões de CO2 e o PIB

The objetive of this work is to analyze the variation of CO2 emissions and GDP per capita throughout the years and identify the possible interaction between them. For this purpose, data from the International Energy Agency was collected on two countries, Brazil and the one with the highest GDP worldwide, the United States. Thus, the results showed that CO2 emissions have been following the country’s economic growth for many years. However, these two indicators have started to decouple in the US in 2007 while in Brazil the same happened in 2011. Furthermore, projections for CO2 emissions are made until 2040, considering 6 probable scenarios. These projections showed that even if the oil price decreases, the emissions will not be significantly affected as long as the economic growth does not decelerate.

Desempenho dos gastos públicos em educação e a Lei de Responsabilidade Fiscal das capitais brasileiras

The use of public expenditures for education is essential for the development of the national economy; and the Brazilian law of fiscal responsibility determines that municipalities must apply 25% of their tax collections and transfers to public investment in education. In view of this, our study seeks to identify how efficiently the requirements on public spending for education and the Law of Fiscal Responsibility are being met in Brazilian state capital cities. This research is descriptive in nature, using document analysis procedures and quantitative data to study a sample of 26 Brazilian state capitals. It was found that the smaller capital cities have better Basic Education Development Indicators (BEDI) and are meeting the goal of 25% established by the Law of Fiscal Responsibility for investment in education. However, in the state capitals with higher GDP, this does not occur. Results show that greater investments in education are associated with better BEDI, better GDP performance and more schools. Capital cities identified as efficient in this regard were Curitiba, Manaus, Rio de Janeiro, Salvador, Sao Paulo, Teresina and Vitoria.

Exposure to external shocks and economic resilience of countries: evidence from global indicators

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to revise, update and extend the economic vulnerability and economic resilience indices, where economic vulnerability is associated with inherent exposure to external shocks and economic resilience with policies that enable a country to minimize or withstand the negative effects of such shocks. This study also proposes a revised vulnerability/resilience framework to assess the risk of a country being harmed by external economic shocks. Design/methodology/approach The methodology used in the study involves defining economic vulnerability in terms of inherent features of an economy and defining economic resilience in terms of policy-induced changes, and then devising measureable indices to measure such vulnerability and resilience across countries. The exercise required the examination of various global indices to assess their suitability, in terms of relevance and country coverage, for measuring the vulnerability index and the resilience index and the components of the two indices. Findings The main finding of the study is that a number highly vulnerable states, including economically successful small island economies, emerged with high resilience scores, suggesting that they adopt policies that enable them to withstand the harmful effects of external shocks. This possibly explains why these states register relatively high GDP per capita, in spite of their high exposure to shocks. On the other hand, a number of countries, mostly large and poor developing countries, that are not highly exposed to external shocks due to their limited dependence on external trade, emerged with a low degree of policy-induced economic resilience. Research limitations/implications The study utilized global indicators which sometimes had missing data and these had to be filled in using approximations based on assumptions, and alternative assumption could have produced a different approximations. In addition the classification of countries in terms of the vulnerability and resilience nexus depended highly on many underpinning assumptions, including the definitions and the measurement of the components, the weighting schemes and the thresholds used. It is likely that alternative assumptions would yield alternative classifications. Practical implications An important practical implication of this study is that highly economically vulnerable states can reduce the harmful effects of external economic shocks if they adopt policies that lead to resilience building. On the other hand, countries that are not highly exposed to external shocks, can render themselves economically unstable due to their weak economic, social and environmental governance. Social implications This study considers social development and cohesion as one of the pillars of resilience building. The implication of this approach is that social governance, leading to improvements in the education and health of the population could reduce the harm arising from a country’s exposure to external shocks. This is because social governance affects the extent to which relations within a society are properly developed, enabling an effective functioning of the economic apparatus without the hindrance of civil unrest. Originality/value This study has extended previous work on the vulnerability and resilience framework, to include almost all countries of the world, using updated data, and has revised the resilience index to include environmental governance. It has also redefined market flexibility to allow for the downsides of excessive financial riskiness. The revision of vulnerability and resilience indices in the light of new data and their interaction showed more convincingly that economies that are highly economically vulnerable could still register economic success as a result of resilience-conducive policies associated with good economic, political, social and environmental governance.

Challenges and Prospects in Investing in the Indonesian Stock Market: A Focus on the Consumer Goods Sector

Indonesia was one of the fastest growing ASEAN countries as well as the world. The outlook was driven by strong economic fundamentals including high GDP growth, a rising middle class, and increasing urbanization. The Indonesian Stock Market served as a major entry point for foreign investors. The Jakarta Composite Index (JCI), the primary measure of Indonesia’s stock market performance, showed high growth historically and a positive outlook moving forward. This study aimed to evaluate the challenges and opportunities in Indonesia’s stock market, specifically for foreign investors whose main purpose was value investing. It focused on the Consumer Goods Sector, as it is the most attractive sector in the market. Top-down and fundamental analyses were conducted to assess the market and identify investment entry points. Upon analysis, it was concluded that the sector would grow and this growth would be driven by increasing household spending, positive CCI, increasing disposable income, and changing consumer lifestyles. Food, beverage and pharmaceutical subsectors showed the highest growth potential while the top picks in terms of investment entry points were INDF, ICBP and KLBF. Though the sector remained attractive, foreign investors should be wary as investing across borders entails challenges including transaction costs, currency risk, country risk and legal risk.

Consumption in Asia

This paper examines consumption patterns in Asia. The majority of Asian countries, in particular, those located in East Asia, such as China, are characterized by high GDP shares of consumption. While over the past two decades there has been a remarkable growth in consumption, and to a lesser extent of consumption per capita, the GDP share of consumption has declined by a considerable amount in Asia. The paper presents projections of the GDP consumption share. The projections are based on time series models and an econometric model that relates the GDP share of consumption to PPP GDP per capita growth. Instrumental variables estimates show that the GDP share of consumption is significantly negatively related to growth: a decrease in PPP GDP per capita growth of 1 percentage point per annum increases the GDP share of consumption by around 2 percentage points. Slower growth in Asia would thus significantly contribute to a higher GDP share of consumption in that region.

Contribuições do patrocínio da Petrobras para o campo audiovisual de 1995 a 2007

A partir do estudo de caso dos aportes realizados pela Petrobras em patrocínios audiovisuais no período dentre 1995 e 2007, é possível analisar o papel precursor das Leis de Incentivo Federais no desenvolvimento do campo audiovisual. Suas contribuições foram significativas ao setor quando se analisa o quantitativo de filmes patrocinados pela Petrobras e por outras instituições, denotando o estímulo do uso das leis de incentivo à cultura a outros patrocinadores, bem como no desenvolvimento do campo, como ocorre no Rio de Janeiro, que possui o maior PIB criativo de todo o território nacional, e aponta novos agentes e trajetórias no cenário atual. Sponsorship contributions by Petrobras to the audiovisual sector from 1995 to 2007AbstractBeginning with a case study about contributions made by Petrobras to audiovisual sponsorships between 1995 and 2007, it is possible to analyze the pioneering role of the Federal Tax Incentive Laws for the audiovisual sector. Their contributions to the sector were significant when the number of movies sponsored by Petrobras and by other institutions is analyzed, denoting the encouragement for the use of cultural incentive laws to other sponsors as well as the development of the sector, as happens in Rio de Janeiro that holds the highest GDP (Gross National Product) of the entire national territory and points out new agents and routes in the current scenario.

Impacts of population density and wealth on the quantity and structure of urban green space in tropical Southeast Asia

Urban green spaces provide ecosystem services, including climate regulation, food, and opportunities for recreation. The quantity and structure of green space in a city may therefore have consequences for human well-being. Cities in Southeast Asia are rapidly changing as they must accommodate larger populations, and their residents are becoming wealthier. Such changes may have impacts on urban green spaces and the ecosystem services that they provide. To assess the potential impacts of future urbanisation in the region, we analysed existing relationships between city size, wealth, and population density, and (1) the percentage cover of green space, (2) the quantity of green space per capita, and (3) the aggregation of green space. We used remote sensing analysis of Landsat 7 data to classify green space in 111 urban areas in Southeast Asia. Cities with higher population densities had less green space and less green space per capita. Cities with higher GDP per capita had higher percentage coverage of green space. Larger cities had lower percentage coverage of green space and less green space per capita. Cities with higher percentage cover of green space had more aggregated green spaces. Authorities in developing cities should consider protecting ecological assets such as remnant forest patches and river corridors, as re-creating habitats at a later stage of development rarely provides comparable levels of ecosystem services.

How to do better health reform: a snapshot of change and improvement initiatives in the health systems of 30 countries.

Health systems are continually being reformed. Why, and how? To answer these questions, we draw on a book we recently contributed, Healthcare Reform, Quality and Safety: Perspectives, Participants, Partnerships and Prospects in 30 Countries. We analyse the impact that these health-reform initiatives have had on the quality and safety of care in an international context—that is, in low-, middle- and high-income countries—Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Chile, China, Denmark, England, Ghana, Germany, the Gulf states, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Israel, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Myanmar, New Zealand, Norway, Oman, Papua New Guinea (PNG), South Africa, the USA, Scotland and Sweden. Popular reforms in less well-off countries include boosting equity, providing infrastructure, and reducing mortality and morbidity in maternal and child health. In countries with higher GDP per capita, the focus is on new IT systems or trialling innovative funding models. Wealthy or less wealthy, countries are embracing ways to enhance quality of care and keep patients safe, via mechanisms such as accreditation, clinical guidelines and hand hygiene campaigns. Two timely reminders are that, first, a population's health is not determined solely by the acute system, but is a product of inter-sectoral effort—that is, measures to alleviate poverty and provide good housing, education, nutrition, running water and sanitation across the population. Second, all reformers and advocates of better-quality of care should include well-designed evaluation in their initiatives. Too often, improvement is assumed, not measured. That is perhaps the key message.

Self-Strengthening Movement of Late Qing China: an Intermediate Reform Doomed to Failure

<p class="1Body">Despite of strong economy including highest GDP gross and self-sufficient feudal economy system, the late Qing Empire fell behind the world trend with its isolationist trade policies. As the Western world caught up technologically, economically, and politically, the former biggest economy had suffered from consecutive losses in wars. In order to preserve the feudal regime, the initiative reform, termed the Self Strengthening Movement was grandly carried out. However, without the true support from the supreme power on one hand, and without the support of the populace on the other, the Movement was an intermediate reform in attempt to preserve the royal system and forestall its continued decline. In policy, the reforms envisioned Western-style modernization without adjusting the political order, yet the entrenched conservatism of the Qing Imperial Court proved to be the decisive hindering factor in the failure of the Movement.</p>

Relationship of suicide rates with climate and economic variables in Europe during 2000-2012.

BackgroundIt is well known that suicidal rates vary considerably among European countries and the reasons for this are unknown, although several theories have been proposed. The effect of economic variables has been extensively studied but not that of climate.MethodsData from 29 European countries covering the years 2000–2012 and concerning male and female standardized suicidal rates (according to WHO), economic variables (according World Bank) and climate variables were gathered. The statistical analysis included cluster and principal component analysis and categorical regression.ResultsThe derived models explained 62.4 % of the variability of male suicidal rates. Economic variables alone explained 26.9 % and climate variables 37.6 %. For females, the respective figures were 41.7, 11.5 and 28.1 %. Male suicides correlated with high unemployment rate in the frame of high growth rate and high inflation and low GDP per capita, while female suicides correlated negatively with inflation. Both male and female suicides correlated with low temperature.DiscussionThe current study reports that the climatic effect (cold climate) is stronger than the economic one, but both are present. It seems that in Europe suicidality follows the climate/temperature cline which interestingly is not from south to north but from south to north-east. This raises concerns that climate change could lead to an increase in suicide rates. The current study is essentially the first successful attempt to explain the differences across countries in Europe; however, it is an observational analysis based on aggregate data and thus there is a lack of control for confounders.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12991-016-0106-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Injury Severity of Motorcycle Riders Involved in Traffic Crashes in Hunan, China: A Mixed Ordered Logit Approach.

Issues related to motorcycle safety in China have not received enough research attention. As such, the causal relationship between injury outcomes of motorcycle crashes and potential risk factors remains unknown. This study intended to investigate the injury risk of motorcyclists involved in road traffic crashes in China. To account for the ordinal nature of response outcomes and unobserved heterogeneity, a mixed ordered logit model was employed. Given that the crash occurrence process is different between intersections and non-intersections, separate models were developed for these locations to independently estimate the impacts of various contributing factors on motorcycle riders’ injury severity. The analysis was based on the police-reported crash dataset obtained from the Traffic Administration Bureau of Hunan Provincial Public Security Ministry. Factors associated with a substantially higher probability of fatalities and severe injuries included motorcycle riders older than 60 years, the absence of helmets, motorcycle riders identified to be equal duty, and when a motorcycle collided with a heavy vehicle during the night time without lighting. Crashes occurred along county roads with curve and slope alignment or at regions with higher GDP were associated with an elevated risk of fatality of motorcycle riders, while unsignalized intersections were related to less severe injuries. Findings of this study are beneficial in forming several targeted countermeasures for motorcycle safety in China, including designing roads with appropriate road delineation and street lighting, strict enforcement for speeding and red light violations, promoting helmet usage, and improving the conspicuity of motorcyclists.

THE RELATION BETWEEN ECONOMIC GROWTH AND FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT DURING THE ECONOMIC CRISIS IN THE EUROPEAN UNION

The goal of this research is to investigate the relationship between economic growth and foreign direct investment inflows in the European Union (EU-28) in the period of the recent economic crisis. Panel data approach and Bayesian techniques are employed to solve the problem of a short set of data (2008–2014). The panel data approaches (panel vector-autoregressive model and Bayesian random effect models) identified a reciprocal and positive relationship between FDI and economic growth in EU-28 starting with 2008. The individual approach based on Bayesian linear regressions identified this tendency as being specific for most of the EU-28 countries. However, there are some countries for which higher FDI did not generate economic growth and some countries where higher GDP did not attract more FDI and FDI did not bring economic growth. According to cluster analysis, the disparities among countries regarding the FDI distribution according to GDP growth and GDP rate distribution according to FDI diminished in 2014 compared to 2008. The basic conclusion is that on overall in the European Union there was a reciprocal relationship between economic growth and FDI since the beginning of the crisis with a tendency of reducing disparities between countries in attracting FDI.

Performance of national innovation systems during the global crisis:

The Global Financial Crisis of 2007-2009, followed by the Euro Crisis, changed the world economic and social balances. By turning upside down the letter-perfect and internalized global economic and social judgments and expectations, the Global Financial Crisis gave birth to a new world order and to a ‘new normal’. Since the internal dynamics of the firms, sectors, countries and regions differ highly, the effect of the global crisis to firms, sectors, countries and regions in terms of intensity of the shock and the recovery process was also uneven. This new normal, together with the technological development, increased the importance of the innovation and efficient use of scarce resources to avoid deadlock in the inclusive and sustainable growth. Thus, the aim of this study is to focus on the innovation efficiency of the countries to see the effect of the global crisis on the capabilities of the countries. In this study, two alternative models with two different approaches of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) under two different specifications (input-oriented and output-oriented) are utilized to trace innovation performance across 56 countries during the global crisis from 2007 to 2012. The empirical evidence reveals that the negative effects of 2008 crisis are reflected on innovation efficiencies of countries in 2008 in the base model and 2009 in the lag model. In addition, grouping countries according to their GDP and GDP per capita and implementing two different models show that there could be difference in the innovation efficiency results since the DEA model shows the innovation efficiency in comparison with the other countries’ efficiency. Lastly, with the data it is observed that higher GDP or higher GDP per capita do not lead to high innovation efficiency

Does Domestic Energy Consumption Affect GDP of a Country? A Panel Data Study

The present study is an attempt to test the relationship between energy consumption, energy efficiency, CO2 Emissions and economic growth for a set of some developed, transition and developing counties. For this purpose, panel data on various factors of GDP growth has been taken for 18 developing, 16 transition and 18 developed countries from 1980–2013. The paper uses the variant of Solow model to provide the economic justification behind the econometric estimation of regression model which includes energy consumption per capita, CO2 emissions and energy efficiency as one of the independent variables affecting GDP growth of a country, among others. To estimate the regression model, the study uses various panel data estimation methodologies such as: panel data cointegration, panel causality (assuming homogeneous and heterogeneous panels), panel VECM, panel VAR and panel data ARDL and SURE. The results help us to find out he short run and long-run relationship between the policy variables. The paper also tests the direction of causality between energy consumption and GDP and per capita GDP growth by working on the following hypotheses:(a) Neutrality Hypothesis, which holds that there is no causality (neither direction) between these two variables; (b) Energy conservation hypothesis, which holds that there is evidence of unidirectional causality from GDP growth to energy consumption; (c)Growth hypothesis, energy consumption drives GDP growth; and (d) Feedback hypothesis, which suggests a bidirectional causal relationship between energy consumption and GDP growth. S-shaped relationship between energy consumption and per capita GDP is also tested by hypothesizing that with high GDP, first energy consumption increases at an increasing rate and then increases at a decreasing rate. The overall conclusion emerges from the analysis is that per capita energy consumption has a negative impact on growth of per capita GDP in developing countries and transition economies but positive impact in case of developed countries. This may be due to the fact that in developed nations, the energy consumption expenditures may be more devoted to technological progress in alternative source of oil like shell gas or in expenditures related to renewable energy intensive technological products. The developing and transition countries although trying to put efforts in increasing expenditures in alternative energy sources like non-renewable, oil consumption still seem to not have many alternatives sources of energy. Therefore, reducing oil expenditures tend to promote growth among developing countries. Growth, Energy Conservation and Feedback hypotheses tend to work for developed, transition and developing countries. Also, the direction of causality may run from growth per capita to energy consumption depicting a S-shaped relation signifying that as society matures energy consumption increases but at a decreasing rate.

Convergencia interregional en Colombia 1990-2013: un enfoque sobre la dinámica espacial

This paper analyzes the convergence of Gross Domestic Product per capita (GDP pc) during the period 1990-2013 in Colombia. Results show a convergence process for the 1999-2006 period and statistical evidence for the existence of spatial error dependence. For these years, random shocks determine the movement of the economies and their interaction are not defined by administrative boundaries. A growth process for the Andean and Caribbean region is observed, contrary to what happens in Orinoquia and Amazon region. That convergence process occurred due to a process of unobservable spatial factors which gave a transition to the growth of the Caribbean and the Andean region. Besides, over time departments with high and low GDP pc remain constant. The main contribution of this work is the analysis on convergence that includes space and time factors simultaneously, as well as validation of the existence of convergence.

Verification of the relationship between FDI and GDP in Poland

The paper analyses the impact of the factors of production on economic growth in Poland in the years 1992–2012, with particular focus on the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI), and strives to verify whether a causality relationship occurred between GDP and FDI, i.e. whether high GDP dynamics attracted FDI inflows and whether this investment contributed to GDP growth. The Vector Error Correction Method impulse responses and variance decomposition analysis confirmed the bi-directional relationships between FDI and GDP in Poland. However, the impact of GDP on attracting FDI inflows to Poland is stronger than that of FDI on GDP growth. Polish developmental policy should concentrate on three essential determinants (pillars) of growth, namely employment growth, attracting FDI (with emphasis on improvement in the type of inflowing investment), and increasing the value and productivity of domestic investment.

CO2 emission and economic growth in Algeria

Algeria is one of the most important CO2 emitters among developing countries and the third among African countries. It pledged to curb carbon emissions by at least 7% by 2030. However, complying with this target may be a difficult task without compromising economic growth. The aim of this paper is to analyze the relationship between CO2 emissions and economic growth in Algeria, taking into account energy use, electricity consumption, exports and imports. The validity of the EKC hypothesis, throughout the period from 1970 to 2010, is tested by using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag model extended to introduce the break points. Results confirm the EKC for Algeria. Nevertheless, the turning point is reached for a very high GDP per capita value, indicating that economic growth in Algeria will continue to increase emissions. Results also indicate that an increase in energy use and electricity consumption increase CO2 emissions, and that exports and imports affect them negatively and positively, respectively. Therefore, it is necessary to promote renewable energies and energy efficiency policies. Regulatory reforms are needed to facilitate foreign investments with which to carry out these policies. Likewise, it may be appropriate to decrease subsides in energy prices to encourage energy efficiency.

Risk Perceptions and International Stock Market Liquidity

We show, using data for 57 countries over the 1990–2015 period, that investors’ risk perceptions are an important determinant of international stock market liquidity. Increased risk perception reduces liquidity around the world, and its impact is not subsumed by other well-documented market-level determinants of liquidity. The effect is pervasive, but is stronger in countries with higher GDP per capita, more trade openness, stronger governance, a more individualistic culture, and no short-selling constraints. It is not driven by periods of extreme changes in risk perception, expansionary or recessionary phases of the business cycle, or the way liquidity is measured.

The sheer scale of China's urban renewal and CO2 emissions: multiple structural breaks, long-run relationship, and short-run dynamics.

In the light of urban environmental transition (UET) theory, this study explores the relationship between carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, economic growth, urbanization, and trade openness using updated Chinese data over the extended period (1971-2013). After confirming that all the underlying series are stationary and adjusted with single structural break point, the results of autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds test approach to cointegration confirm the cointegration between the variables. The long- and short-run dynamics reveal that urbanization reduces the CO2 emissions both in short and long runs, but statistically insignificant. These findings contrast with previous literature and sound the validation of urban environmental transition theory (UET). However, economic growth and trade openness contribute environmental degradation both in long- and short-run paths. The causality analysis reports bidirectional causal link between trade openness and urbanization in the short run. However, in the long-run, economic growth Granger causes carbon dioxide emissions, urbanization, and trade openness. Similarly, trade openness Granger causes carbon dioxide emissions, economic growth, and urbanization in the long run. The overall results imply that rural to urban immigration is still mostly driven by export-related manufacturing sectors. In addition, the higher GDP also contributes to urbanization as a feedback effect. In the end, stability of the model is also checked, model found stable, and findings are suitable for environmental policy control use.

A Study of Bilateral Trade Flows of China and India

Background/Objectives: According to the World Trade Organization data for 2013, China became world’s largest trading nation and India became the 15th largest trading nation. Emerging economies gained a lot of momentum in world trade. This study analyses the trade flows of two of the emerging economies namely China and India with an objective to draw a comparison between the determinants of bilateral trade flows of the two nations using data for a period of 9 years (2004- 2013). Methods/Statistical Analysis: To achieve the objective, gravity model has been applied on a panel dataset for the two countries. The data has been collected from International Monetary Fund (IMF), CEPII’s Geodist database and United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). The study employs random effects panel regression model to establish the relationship between trade flows and different variables including distance, gross domestic product, per capital income, contiguity, common language and common colonizer. It compares the determinants of trade for India with China. Findings: The findings of the empirical analysis are in accordance with past literature indicating that India and China trade flows are mostly with geographically closer countries. Additionally, India’s trade flows are with countries having higher GDP but with lower per capita income. China’s trade is influenced by higher per capita income of the trading partner and common language. When crisis is introduced in the analysis, post crisis, common colony became an important influencer of trade for India. Applications/Improvements: This study helps in identifying the key determinants of India and China’s trade flows. It also provides a pre and post crisis analysis of the trade partnerships which might have future implications for trade policy and trade relations for the two countries.