High Vulnerability Index Research Articles

The Vulnerability Assessment of Flash Floods Disaster in the Upper Cisadane Watershed

Flash floods is a sudden flood disaster that can be triggered by several factors, one of which is the landslides that occur in river basins. In Bogor Regency, there are fourteen sub-districts located in the Upper Cisadane watershed area that are prone to flash flood disaster. This study aims to determine social, economic, physical and environmental vulnerability assessment of the community in the Upper Cisadane watershed area based on the modification assessment from PERKA BNPB No. 12 Tahun 2012. According to the vulnerability index, the Upper Cisadane watershed has high and very high classes of flash floods vulnerability. Sub-districts with high vulnerability index class are Nanggung, Pamijahan, West Bogor, South Bogor, Central Bogor, East Bogor, Cibungbulang, Cigudeg, Leuwisadeng, and Sukajaya, meanwhile, sub-districts with very high vulnerability index are Caringin, Ciampea, Ciawi, Cigombong, Cijeruk, Ciomas, Dramaga, Kemang, Leuwiliang, Megamendung, Rancabungur, Rumpin, Tamansari, and Tenjolaya.

Climate-change-induced risk mapping of the Indian Himalayan districts using the latest IPCC framework

Mountain regions worldwide, notably the Hindu Kush Himalayas (HKH) encompassing the Indian Himalayan Region (IHR), face considerable vulnerability to various hazards resulting in human and livestock casualties, financial losses, and damage. The primary objective of this study is to construct a climate-change-induced risk index specifically for the districts within the IHR. The concept of risk herein refers to the composite of hazard, vulnerability, and exposure, aligned with the current framework of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Utilising the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS), a multi-attribute decision-making (MADM) approach, the research integrates indicators to generate indices pertaining to hazard, vulnerability, and exposure across 109 districts in both the Western Indian Himalayan Region (WIHR) and the Eastern Indian Himalayan Region (EIHR). The study relies on secondary data sourced from various openly accessible government reports and websites. Key findings include: (1) The WIHR exhibits a higher overall risk compared to the EIHR. (2) The WIHR demonstrates elevated rankings in hazards and exposure indices. (3) The EIHR exhibits a relatively higher vulnerability index. This paper presents a pioneering contribution to the limited body of literature on risk assessment by offering one of the initial attempts to rank administrative districts pan-IHR based on the latest IPCC criteria. Moreover, the assessment carries significant implications for policymakers, as it is critical to identify the districts vulnerable to climate change and the extent of their vulnerability before addressing climate-induced risk.

A regional stocktake of maize yield vulnerability to droughts in the Horn of Africa.

Climate projections in sub-Saharan Africa predict increased frequency of droughts with parallel impacts on crop yield. The Horn of Africa is among the most vulnerable regions in Africa to these changes because agriculture in general andmaize productionin particularly is highly climate driven, and rain-fed. Current research approaches have mostly focused on the climatic and biophysical drivers of crop yield without including the socio-economic drivers of crop yield. This study fills this gap by investigating the vulnerability of maize yield in the Horn of Africa to climate and socio-economic indicators. The hypothesis is that there is an inverse relationship between vulnerability and adaptive capacity. The vulnerability index is a composite index that integrates sensitivity, exposure, and adaptive capacity sub-indices. Maize yield data to compute the sensitivity index were collected from FAOSTAT, precipitation data to compute the exposure index were collected from the Climate Research Unit (CRU), and the data for the proxies of adaptive capacity were collected from the readiness index database on figshare. From the results, Somalia records the highest vulnerability index of 1.15, followed by Ethiopia with a vulnerability index of 0.61. Kenya records the lowest vulnerability index of 0.33. Also, there is a positive relationship between the vulnerability, sensitivity, and the exposure indices and an inverse relationship between the vulnerability index and the adaptive capacity index. The high vulnerability index recorded in Somalia is accentuated by a low adaptive capacity index of 0.44 that is anchored on low literacy and high poverty rates. As Somalia records the lowest adaptive capacity index of 0.44, Ethiopia and Kenya record 0.91 and 0.99 respectively. This study has shown that to better understand vulnerability, a shift from the old paradigm that focuses on the climatic variables to integrating socio-economic variables or proxies of adaptive capacity whichenhances ourunderstanding ofvulnerability. Though leveraging the benefits of climatic and non-climatic variables is important, the challenge so far has been on how to integrate these in the same model; a challenge this work has succinctly overcome by integrating adaptive capacity in the vulnerability equation.

Distribution of Papaya Ring Spot Virus Infecting Papaya in Kerala, India

In the midst of the rising interest of papaya cultivation in Kerala, it is inevitable to study the current status of the Papaya ring spot disease in the state. Knowing the severity and distribution of PRSV isolates, causing ring spot disease, helps in the better formulation of effective management strategies against it. Purposive sampling surveys carried out in 2021-22 across five agro ecological units (AEUs) of Kerala, recorded papaya ring spot disease incidence (PRSD) ranging from 50 to 100 per cent in the cultivated areas with vulnerability index of 33.54 to 98.22. Highest disease incidence was recorded from AEU 8- Southern Laterites: Thiruvananthapuram (100.0%) and highest vulnerability index was recorded from Kalliyoor (98.22). Twenty symptomatic samples tested positive for PRSV in double antibody sandwich- ELISA (DAS-ELISA) using PRSV polyclonal antiserum. RT-PCR using coat protein gene specific primers RKJ 52 and 3 yielded amplicons of size approximately ~890bp in all the samples. Virulence of the Kerala isolates was evaluated based on the symptom expression, disease incidence and vulnerability index, upon mechanical transmission of PRSV on two months old papaya plants (variety- Red Lady). PRSV isolate from Kalliyoor (TVM1) inoculated on papaya plants expressed chlorosis, mottling, malformation of leaves and stunting with 96.80 vulnerability index. Maximum vulnerability index and severe symptoms including stunting in the inoculated plants were observed in isolates from southern and central Kerala, which include Thiruvananthapuram, Alappuzha and Thrissur had the most virulent PRSV isolates compared to north Kerala.

Soil characterization of Babol City using single-station ambient seismic noise method

The interrelation between the local site conditions and the severity of destruction during earthquakes has increased the necessity for more investigations on soil characterization in recent years. In residential areas, where active seismic methods are problematic for defining soil properties, passive seismic methods have attracted considerable attention due to their cost-effective and non-invasive features. Therefore, we have utilized 35 single-station ambient seismic noise recordings in the seismically vulnerable city of Babol, Iran, to evaluate the site response (including azimuthal variation and resonance frequency), estimate the seismic vulnerability index (Kg), and classify the soil based on the Vs30 of the region. To address the aim, we extract Rayleigh wave ellipticities from ambient seismic noise using their polarization features and employ them to define the azimuthal variations, resonance frequencies, and Kg values of the region. In each station, the ellipticity curve is inverted with the support of supplementary geotechnical information to obtain a shear velocity profile. The inversion results have good consistency with borehole and downhole test information.The study identifies a low resonance frequency of 0.9 Hz with a NE directivity for the majority of the city and a Vs30 range of 180 m/s to 350 m/s. Moreover, the seismic bedrock of Babol City is represented by a 3D Vs model at a depth of 60 m. Our results reveal that the city is vulnerable to seismic hazards due to the thick and low-velocity deposits responsible for high amplification affecting the study region, which combines with a high seismic vulnerability index, particularly in the southern part. This work has applications for future structural design, urban development, and seismic hazard reduction.

Evaluating flash flood vulnerability using combined deterministic and parametric model: A case in the upper Ciliwung watershed, Indonesia

On January 19, 2021, a flash flood hit the Upper Ciliwung watershed, a mountainous area in Indonesia, causing damage to seven buildings and displacing 1,800 residents. To minimize the impact of such disasters, there is a need for disaster risk awareness and management specifically focused on flash floods in mountainous regions. Therefore, this study aims to assess the flash flood potential index value in the Upper Ciliwung watershed. The research utilized deterministic (Soil and Water Assessment Tool-SWAT) and parametric (Flash Flood Potential Index-FFPI) modeling to analyze various factors, including slope, geology, ground movement, Antecedent Precipitation Index (API), and Runoff Coefficient (Curve Number-CN). The models showed satisfactory goodness-of-fit statistics with R2 and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies (NSE) values of 0.58 and 0.57, respectively. The findings indicated that 39.95% of the watershed had a moderate vulnerability index value of 3, while downstream areas (31.7%) had a low vulnerability index value of 2, and the middle and upstream regions had high vulnerability index values of 4 and 5, covering 23.65% and 2.49% of the total area. These results provide valuable insights to local authorities for implementing measures to reduce the Upper Ciliwung watershed’s vulnerability to flash floods.

Association of social vulnerability with receipt of hernia repair in Texas

BackgroundThe effect of social health determinants on hernia surgery receipt is unclear. We aimed to assess the association of the social vulnerability index with the likelihood of undergoing elective and emergency hernia repair in Texas. MethodsThis is a retrospective cohort analysis of the Texas Hospital Inpatient Discharge Public Use Data File and Texas Outpatient Surgical and Radiological Procedure Public Use Data File from 2016 to 2019. Patients ≥18 years old with inguinal or umbilical hernia were included. Social vulnerability index and urban/rural status were merged with the database at the county level. Patients were stratified based on social vulnerability index quartiles, with the lowest quartile (Q1) designated as low vulnerability, Q2 and Q3 as average, and Q4 as high vulnerability. Wilcoxon rank sum, t test, and χ2 analysis were used, as appropriate. The relative risk of undergoing surgery was calculated with subgroup sensitivity analysis. ResultsOf 234,843 patients assessed, 148,139 (63.1%) underwent surgery. Compared to patients with an average social vulnerability index, the low social vulnerability index group was 36% more likely to receive surgery (relative risk: 1.36, 95% CI 1.34–1.37), whereas the high social vulnerability index group was 14% less likely to receive surgery (relative risk: 0.86, 95% CI 0.85–0.86). This remained significant after stratifying for age, sex, insurance status, ethnicity, and urban/rural status (P < .05). For emergency admissions, there was no difference in receipt of surgery by social vulnerability index. ConclusionVulnerable patients are less likely to undergo elective surgical hernia repair, even after adjusting for demographics, insurance, and urbanicity. The social vulnerability index may be a useful indicator of social determinants of health barriers to hernia repair.

The influence of social and environmental determinants of health on hospitalizations for pediatric asthma

Background Asthma is the most common chronic disease of childhood, and has several social, environmental, and demographic factors potentially influential to its disease burden. This study sought to determine the influence of these factors on hospital admissions and readmissions for pediatric asthma. Methods This was a retrospective cohort study using data from the Indiana Network for Patient Care, a state-wide health information exchange in the United States. Study participants were children 2-18 years old admitted to the hospital with a respiratory diagnostic code between 2010 and 2021. Clinical variables were obtained from electronic health record data, and social and environmental determinants of health data were obtained from the Indiana Social Assets and Vulnerabilities Indicators using geocoding systems. Negative binomial models were used to examine community level social and environmental risk factors modifying the relationship between patient characteristics and the risk of asthma-related hospitalizations and 30-day readmissions. Results The study sample included 25,063 patients with an average follow-up of 9 (SD = 5) years. Of these, there were 17,816 asthma-related admissions. There were a total of 1,037 asthma-related 30-day readmissions, with an incidence rate of readmissions relative to total visits of 0.028 per person-year. A high social vulnerability index (SVI) was associated with an increased rate of hospital admissions (Proportion attributable ratio: 1.09, 95%CI (1.03,1.15), p < 0.05). No environmental determinants of health were significantly associated with hospitalization rate. Conclusion High SVI was significantly associated with increased risk of total hospital admissions for pediatric asthma.

S1683 Impact of Medically Underserved Areas and High Social Vulnerability Index on Hospitalization in Pediatric Inflammatory Bowel Disease

S1683 Impact of Medically Underserved Areas and High Social Vulnerability Index on Hospitalization in Pediatric Inflammatory Bowel Disease

Season of Conception and Risk of Cerebral Palsy

Cerebral palsy (CP) is the most prevalent neuromotor disability in childhood, but for most cases the etiology remains unexplained. Seasonal variation in the conception of CP may provide clues for their potential etiological risk factors that vary across seasons. To evaluate whether the month or season of conception is associated with CP occurrence. This statewide cohort study examined more than 4 million live births that were registered in the California birth records during 2007 to 2015 and were linked to CP diagnostic records (up to year 2021). Statistical analyses were conducted between March 2022 and January 2023. The month and season of conception were estimated based on the child's date of birth and the length of gestation recorded in the California birth records. CP status was ascertained from the diagnostic records obtained from the Department of Developmental Services in California. Poisson regression was used to estimate the relative risk (RR) and 95% CI for CP according to the month or the season of conception, adjusting for maternal- and neighborhood-level factors. Stratified analyses were conducted by child's sex and neighborhood social vulnerability measures, and the mediating role of preterm birth was evaluated. Records of 4 468 109 children (51.2% male; maternal age: 28.3% aged 19 to 25 years, 27.5% aged 26 to 30 years; maternal race and ethnicity: 5.6% African American or Black, 13.5% Asian, 49.8% Hispanic or Latinx of any race, and 28.3% non-Hispanic White) and 4697 with CP (55.1% male; maternal age: 28.3% aged 19 to 25 years, 26.0% aged 26 to 30 years; maternal race and ethnicity: 8.3% African American or Black, 8.6% Asian, 54.3% Hispanic or Latinx of any race, and 25.8% non-Hispanic White) were analyzed. Children conceived in winter (January to March) or spring (April to June) were associated with a 9% to 10% increased risk of CP (winter: RR, 1.09 [95% CI, 1.01-1.19]; spring: RR, 1.10 [95% CI, 1.02-1.20]) compared with summer (July to September) conceptions. Analyses for specific months showed similar results with children conceived in January, February, and May being at higher risk of CP. The associations were slightly stronger for mothers who lived in neighborhoods with a high social vulnerability index, but no child sex differences were observed. Only a small portion of the estimated association was mediated through preterm birth. In this cohort study in California, children conceived in winter and spring had a small increase in CP risk. These findings suggest that seasonally varying environmental factors should be considered in the etiological research of CP.

Neighborhood Social Vulnerability and Interstage Weight Gain: Evaluating the Role of a Home Monitoring Program.

Background Poor interstage weight gain is a risk factor for adverse outcomes in infants with hypoplastic left heart syndrome. We sought to examine the association of neighborhood social vulnerability and interstage weight gain and determine if this association is modified by enrollment in our institution's Infant Single Ventricle Management and Monitoring Program (ISVMP). Methods and Results We performed a retrospective single-center study of infants with hypoplastic left heart syndrome before (2007-2010) and after (2011-2020) introduction of the ISVMP. The primary outcome was interstage weight gain, and the secondary outcome was interstage growth failure. Multivariable linear and logistic regression models were used to examine the association between the Social Vulnerability Index and the outcomes. We introduced an interaction term into the models to test for effect modification by the ISVMP. We evaluated 217 ISVMP infants and 111 pre-ISVMP historical controls. The Social Vulnerability Index was associated with interstage growth failure (P=0.001); however, enrollment in the ISVMP strongly attenuated this association (P=0.04). Pre-ISVMP, as well as high- and middle-vulnerability infants gained 4 g/d less and were significantly more likely to experience growth failure than low-vulnerability infants (high versus low: adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 12.5 [95% CI, 2.5-62.2]; middle versus low: aOR, 7.8 [95% CI, 2.0-31.2]). After the introduction of the ISVMP, outcomes did not differ by Social Vulnerability Index tertile. Infants with middle and high Social Vulnerability Index scores who were enrolled in the ISVMP gained 4 g/d and 2 g/d more, respectively, than pre-ISVMP controls. Conclusions In infants with hypoplastic left heart syndrome, high social vulnerability is a risk factor for poor interstage weight gain. However, enrollment in the ISVMP significantly reduces growth disparities.

Subsurface Analysis Using Microtremor and Resistivity to Determine Soil Vulnerability and Discovery of New Local Fault

Microtremor and geoelectrical resistivity surveys have been conducted in areas where the April 10, 2021, earthquake of 6.1 Mw caused the most damage. Wirotaman Village, Malang Regency, was one of the regions with the most extensive damage. This study aims to investigate the seismic vulnerability and subsurface conditions that result in severe damage at the research location. This study's Horizontal to Vertical Spectral Ratio Analysis (HVSR) curve was derived from the recorded microtremor signal in the frequency domain. The frequency parameter and amplification factor obtained from the curve are used to determine the seismic vulnerability index. In addition, a geoelectrical resistivity study with a dipole-dipole configuration was conducted at the site with the most extensive damage. The results of this study show the correlation between the results of the HVSR curve analysis and geoelectrical resistivity in determining the seismic vulnerability of an area. The results indicated that the high seismic vulnerability index value ranged from Kg= 12.0 to 18.0, with the most severe damage concentrated in the Southwest at SA 05 and SA 06. Based on the results of the geoelectrical survey, information was obtained that several points of damage to buildings at SA 05 (red circle) were on the same line, where this condition was associated with the possibility of new faults at that location. This microtremor and geoelectric resistivity investigation reveals thick sedimentary deposits with a high seismic vulnerability index and low resistivity. This study's findings can be utilized as a guide for micro zonation studies in research areas. This research contributes to the surrounding community in the form of disaster mitigation, where construction must avoid local fault positions that have been found to reduce the level of damage when natural geological disasters occur. Doi: 10.28991/CEJ-2023-09-09-014 Full Text: PDF

Amplification Analysis and Seismic Vulnerability Index of Air Tawar Barat Village of Padang City Using HVSR Method

Padang City is an area that has a very high level of seismic activity in Indonesia. The city of Padang is also an area severely affected by the earthquake in the Subduction Zone. Considerable earthquakes impact building damage and infrastructure, one of the factors that can see the vulnerability of an area with a seismic vulnerability index. Therefore, a study was conducted to determine and analyze the amplification and seismic vulnerability index in the Air Tawar Barat Village of Padang City and create a map of the natural frequency distribution, amplification, and seismic vulnerability index. Microtremor data retrieval was carried out in February-May 2022 using the Seismograph Sysmatrack MAE and S3S Sensors at Air Tawar Barat Village, Padang City. The method used in this study is the HVSR (Horizontal to Vertical Spectral Ratio) method using geopsy software to remove noise in the data and see the natural frequency value and the value of the amplification factor. Furthermore, from the data, contour maps were made using Surfer 13, where the type of research carried out was in the form of descriptive research. Based on the results of the study found that the natural frequency value (f0) in the study area ranged from 0.59141 Hz – 12.9172 Hz, the amplification (A0) ranged from 2.39825 to 13.7759, and the seismic susceptibility index (kg) was 0.4802 – 320.885. Based on the data processing results, it can be concluded that fresh western water is an area with a high seismic vulnerability index, and the location is very vulnerable when shaken by an earthquake.

Social determinants of health in pediatric trauma: Associations with injury mechanisms and outcomes in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic

BackgroundRelationships between social determinants of health and pediatric trauma mechanisms and outcomes are unclear in context of COVID-19. MethodsChildren <16 years old injured between 2016 and 2021 from ten pediatric trauma centers in Florida were included. Patients were stratified by high vs. low Social Vulnerability Index (SVI). Injury mechanisms studied were child abuse, ATV/golf carts, and firearms. Mechanism incidence trends and mortality were evaluated by interrupted time series and multivariable logistic regression. ResultsOf 19,319 children, 68% and 32% had high and low SVI, respectively. Child abuse increased across SVI strata and did not change with COVID. ATV/golf cart injuries increased after COVID among children with low SVI. Firearm injuries increased after COVID among children with high SVI. Mortality was predicted by injury mechanism, but was not independently associated with SVI, race, or COVID. ConclusionSocial vulnerability influences pediatric trauma mechanisms and COVID effects. Child abuse and firearm injuries should be targeted for prevention.

Exploring the utility of the entropy method for classifying household livelihood vulnerability and adaptation strategies to salinity intrusion Impact - empirical evidence in coastal communities of the Vietnamese Mekong delta

This study evaluates how vulnerable and adaptable the coastal communities of the Vietnamese Mekong delta (VMD) are to the effects of saltwater intrusion on their livelihoods. A multi-disciplinary approach is used, including the entropy method, field surveys, and GIS combined with interviews with local officials, coastal communities. For analyzing household vulnerability for 457 households in twelve selected communes in Soc Trang province, VMD, we applied the Livelihood Vulnerable index (LVI) and LVI-IPCC indices, and the weight of key components was determined using Shannon's entropy approach. Both are salinity intrusion-focused and the subcomponents of the LVI and LVI-IPCC were similar; nevertheless, they are each conceptually constructed differently, resulting in distinct final value outputs. The results produced from LVI revealed that Lich Hoi Thuong had the highest vulnerability index (0.608), followed by Tran De (0.443) and Dai An 2 (0.435), having moderate vulnerability, whereas the Phu Huu (0.389), Tan Hung (0.341), Long Phu (0.337), Long Duc (0.322), Truong Khanh (0.318), Chau Khanh (0.277), Dai Ngai (0.260), Hau Thanh (0.244) and Lieu Tu (0.224) communes were classified as having low vulnerability. In terms of the results of LVI-IPCC, Lieu Tu (−0.013) is the most vulnerable. Our analysis underlines that, while some communes are vulnerable to saline intrusion, the sensitivity can be mitigated by their adaptive ability. This study has detailed the picture of livelihood vulnerability in Soc Trang, providing valuable information for the decision-makers to understand the context in study areas and then suggest effective strategies to adapt to salinity intrusion.

Microzonation study around Lake Toba, North Sumatra, Indonesia based on horizontal – vertical spectral ratio

Lake Toba, North Sumatra, Indonesia, is one of the biggest calderas in the world. The area is also prone to earthquake damage because of the tectonic activity due to its location in the subduction zone of Indo-Australian and Eurasian Plates. In recent years, Lake Toba has become one of the most attractive tourist destinations in Indonesia. Hence, the Indonesian government has been considering infrastructure development in this region. The region vulnerability cause by soil amplification due to the earthquake activity can be quantitatively investigated. We carried out a microzonation analysis around Lake Toba using Horizontal-Vertical (H/V) Spectral Ratio method. A total of about 30 short-period seismometers around Lake Toba were used for the analysis. We estimated several parameters that may define some soil characteristics, such as H/V peak amplitudes, peak frequencies, average shear wave velocity of 30 m depth (Vs30), and vulnerability index (Kg). Spatial distribution of peak frequencies and Vs30 suggest that the region may fall into sites SC and SD showing characteristics of dense to stiff soil. We also observed areas with a high vulnerability index (Kg > 20), which may indicate the high possibility of soil vulnerability due to strong earthquakes. The findings may provide preliminary results or sources for future geophysical, geological, and geotechnical analysis for disaster risk reduction in this high-risk region.

Higher Temperatures in Socially Vulnerable US Communities Increasingly Limit Safe Use of Electric Fans for Cooling.

As the globe warms, people will increasingly need affordable, safe methods to stay cool and minimize the worst health impacts of heat exposure. One of the cheapest cooling methods is electric fans. Recent research has recommended ambient air temperature thresholds for safe fan use in adults. Here we use hourly weather reanalysis data (1950-2021) to examine the temporal and spatial evolution of ambient climate conditions in the continental United States (CONUS) considered safe for fan use, focusing on high social vulnerability index (SVI) regions. We find that although most hours in the day are safe for fan use, there are regions that experience hundreds to thousands of hours per year that are too hot for safe fan use. Over the last several decades, the number of hours considered unsafe for fan use has increased across most of the CONUS (on average by ∼70%), with hotspots across the US West and South, suggesting that many individuals will increasingly need alternative cooling strategies. People living in high-SVI locations are 1.5-2 times more likely to experience hotter climate conditions than the overall US population. High-SVI locations also experience higher rates of warming that are approaching and exceeding important safety thresholds that relate to climate adaptation. These results highlight the need to direct additional resources to these communities for heat adaptive strategies.

Seismic Vulnerability Analysis Using the Horizontal to Vertical Spectral Ratio (HVSR) Method on the West Palu Bay Coastline

This research was carried out to make a map of the dominant frequency (f0), amplification factor (A0), seismic susceptibility index (Kg), Vs30, Sediment Layer Thickness (H) and Peak ground acceleration (PGA). Microtremor measurements were carried out with a three-component seismometer of the TDL-303S type as many as 27 measurement points. The data was analyzed by the Horizontal to Vertical Spectral Ratio (HVSR) method. The PGA calculation was carried out using the Kanai equation with a reference to the Palu-Donggala earthquake on September 28, 2018. The results showed that the distribution of the dominant frequency value (f0) ranged from 0.4149 Hz-0.8869 Hz, the soil amplification factor (A0) ranged from 2,199–4,884, the seismic vulnerability index (Kg) ranged from 8.79 s2/cm-41.41 s2/cm, the shear wave velocity to a depth of 30 meters ( Vs30) ranged from Vs30 197.7 m/s-320.2 m/s , the thickness of the sedimentary layer ranges from 260.3 m-291.1 m and the peak ground acceleration (PGA) of Kanai ranges from 137.3 gal – 234.2 gal by using Mw 7.4 earthquakes with an intensity scale (MMI) VI to VII. The coastal area of West Palu bay has an intermediate seismic vulnerability II to a high seismic vulnerability IV so that it will be vulnerable in the event of an earthquake disaster. Areas that have a very high vulnerability index are in the upper western and easternmost regions while those with a lower level tend to have a lower vulnerability index value.

New Perspectives on the Quaternary Paleogeography of Coastal Ecuador and Its Relationships with Climate Change

Well-preserved Quaternary sedimentary sequences in the central coast of Ecuador have provided sufficient relevant information for paleogeographic reconstruction and climatic evolution, from stratigraphic, geochemical, and biological analysis. The Jaramijo canton site is one of the most remarkable results in the stratigraphic correlation of lithological units with delineation of a paleo sea-cliff of age 14C 43,245 ± 460 B.P. (belonging to the MIS-3). This MIS-3 is associated with a period of glaciation, but the data obtained, such as δ 18O, indicate paleo-temperature values of −1 to −1.5, which are interpreted in this study, indicate that the central coast of Ecuador has an interstadial phase (warm years in a glacial stage). Two more paleo-coastal cliffs have been mapped from orthophoto analysis, but these are younger. The sedimentary levels analyzed in this study include deposits that occurred in MIS 3 to MIS 1. Holocene transgression has modified the central coast of Ecuador and increased the level of coastal climate hazard by sea level rise. Indeed, paleo-coastlines have been evidenced from bathymetric data in the depth contours of −5.5 m and −7.6 m, at 440 and 650 m distances from the up-to-date coastline. For the Jaramijó site, the rate of cliff-erosion and wave-cut platforms are in the order of 1.1 to 2.4 m/yr. These cliff-erosion rates, with a moderate to high coastal vulnerability index, can be increased if we consider mathematical models with an estimated sea-level rise scenario to be, in 2100, about +1 to +1.4 m.

Disparities in Pediatric Orthopedic Surgery Care During the COVID-19 Pandemic Pre-vaccine and Post-Vaccine Availability.

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to significant disruptions in medical care, resulting in an estimated 40% of US adults avoiding care. However, the return to baseline health care utilization following COVID-19 restrictions within the pediatric orthopedic population remains unexplored. We sought to analyze the visit volume and demographics of pediatric orthopedic patients at 3 timepoints: prepandemic (2019), pandemic (2020), and pandemic post-vaccine availability (2021), to determine the impact of COVID-19 restrictions on our single-center, multisite institution. We performed a retrospective cohort study of 6318 patients seeking treatment at our institution from May through August in 2019, 2020, and 2021. Patient age, sex, address, encounter date, and ICD-10 codes were obtained. Diagnoses were classified into fractures and dislocations, non-fracture-related trauma, sports, elective, and other categories. Geospatial analysis comparing incidence and geospatial distribution of diagnoses across the time periods was performed and compared with the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) social vulnerability index (SVI). The total number of pediatric orthopedic visits decreased by 22.2% during the pandemic ( P <0.001) and remained 11.6% lower post-vaccine availability compared with prepandemic numbers ( P <0.001). There was no significant difference in age ( P =0.097) or sex ( P =0.248) of the patients across all 3 timepoints; however, patients seen during the pandemic were more often White race (67.7% vs. 59.3%, P <0.001). Post-vaccine availability, trauma visits increased by 18.2% ( P <0.001) and total fractures remained 13.4% lower than prepandemic volume ( P <0.001). Sports volume decreased during the pandemic but returned to prepandemic volume in the post-vaccine availability period ( P =0.298). Elective visits did not recover to prepandemic volume and remained 13.0% lower compared with baseline ( P <0.001). Geospatial analysis of patient distribution illustrated neighborhood trends in access to care during the COVID-19 pandemic, with fewer patients from high SVI and low socioeconomic status neighborhoods seeking fracture care during the pandemic than prepandemic. Post-vaccine availability, fracture population distribution resembled prepandemic levels, suggesting a return to baseline health care utilization. Pediatric orthopedic surgery visit volume broadly decreased during the COVID-19 pandemic and did not return to prepandemic levels. All categories increased in the post-vaccine availability time point except elective visits. Geospatial analysis revealed that neighborhoods with a high social vulnerability index (SVI) were associated with decreased fracture visits during the pandemic, whereas low SVI neighborhoods did not experience as much of a decline. Future research is needed to study these neighborhood trends and more completely characterize factors preventing equitable access to care in the pediatric orthopedic population. Retrospective Study, Level III.