Climate-change-induced risk mapping of the Indian Himalayan districts using the latest IPCC framework

Abstract

Mountain regions worldwide, notably the Hindu Kush Himalayas (HKH) encompassing the Indian Himalayan Region (IHR), face considerable vulnerability to various hazards resulting in human and livestock casualties, financial losses, and damage. The primary objective of this study is to construct a climate-change-induced risk index specifically for the districts within the IHR. The concept of risk herein refers to the composite of hazard, vulnerability, and exposure, aligned with the current framework of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Utilising the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS), a multi-attribute decision-making (MADM) approach, the research integrates indicators to generate indices pertaining to hazard, vulnerability, and exposure across 109 districts in both the Western Indian Himalayan Region (WIHR) and the Eastern Indian Himalayan Region (EIHR). The study relies on secondary data sourced from various openly accessible government reports and websites. Key findings include: (1) The WIHR exhibits a higher overall risk compared to the EIHR. (2) The WIHR demonstrates elevated rankings in hazards and exposure indices. (3) The EIHR exhibits a relatively higher vulnerability index. This paper presents a pioneering contribution to the limited body of literature on risk assessment by offering one of the initial attempts to rank administrative districts pan-IHR based on the latest IPCC criteria. Moreover, the assessment carries significant implications for policymakers, as it is critical to identify the districts vulnerable to climate change and the extent of their vulnerability before addressing climate-induced risk.