Areas Of High Suitability Research Articles

How far will they go? Considerations on the potential expansion of the Ring-necked Parakeet (<em>Psittacula krameri</em>) and Monk Parakeet (<em>Myiopsitta monachus</em>) in Veneto region (Italy) with MaxEnt distribution models

Predictive models of species distribution, including several parakeets, may be very useful for understanding the actual and potential distribution of alien species. The Ring-necked Parakeet and the Monk Parakeet are two alien species found in the Veneto region (north-east Italy) that are well-suited for conducting potential distribution studies to identify suitable areas of occurrence. In this paper, I use the MAXENT algorithm to predict the potential distribution maps of these species in the Veneto region, which finds the probability distribution of maximum entropy that is constrained by the ecological parameters considered. The authors of the Veneto photo-sound atlas kindly provided presence data for the two species. The potential distribution models for the two parakeets performed very well overall (AUC = 0.966 for Ring-necked Parakeet and AUC = 0.987 for Monk Parakeet) and indicated that high suitability areas correspond primarily to areas near known occurrences of the species. Overall, the study found that the presence of the species in provinces other than those with large populations is highly unlikely. The distribution maps produced can aid in the selection of monitoring areas for these two alien species’ populations and potential expansion.

Current and Future Distribution Modeling of Socotra Cormorants Using MaxEnt

The Socotra Cormorant (Phalacrocorax nigrogularis) is a regionally endemic seabird that is vulnerable due to human disturbance and habitat degradation. This study aimed to predict the potential current and future marine distribution of the species under different climate change scenarios using environmental variables affecting distribution using MaxEnt. Occurrence data were collected over several years using satellite tagged adults in the Arabian Gulf. The current model showed large areas of high suitability, mainly in the Arabian Gulf and in the Red Sea, where 31,300 km2 or 48% of total highly suitable areas existed. These areas are currently not utilized by the species. The future model predicted a sharp decline in suitable areas with 73% loss under the SSP5-8.5 climate change scenario of 2050 (extreme scenario). Nevertheless, the Red Sea is predicted to still hold considerable moderately suitable areas. Suitable areas increased around the Socotra archipelago. The model did not include biological variables due to lack of fish distribution data. Two variables, namely, mixed layer thickness and sea floor depth, explained most of the species’ distribution. These variables significantly influence nutrient cycling and forage fish distribution patterns, which in turn influence seabird distributions. Thus, the model could be useful in predicting the distribution of Socotra cormorants. However, the model outcomes should be interpreted with caution as potential areas of future expansion of the species to be further tested and validated. Conserving these areas as a precaution might encourage the Socotra Cormorant to colonize the region and persist in the future under the most extreme climate change scenarios, given that small forage fish that are eaten by the species are abundant in the predicted areas outside of the Arabian Gulf.

Predicting the distributions of Scleroderma guani (Hymenoptera: Bethylidae) under climate change in China.

The wasp Scleroderma guani is an important parasitic natural enemy of a variety of stem borers such as longicorn beetles. Studying and clarifying the suitable area of this wasp plays an important role in controlling stem borers. Based on information about the actual distribution of S. guani and on a set of environmental variables, MaxEnt niche model and ArcGIS were exploited to predict the potential distribution of this insect in China. This work simulated the geographical distribution of potential climatic suitability of S. guani in China at present and in different periods in the future. Combining the relative percent contribution score of environmental factors and the Jackknife test, the dominant environmental variables and their appropriate values restricting the potential geographical distribution of S. guani were screened. The results showed that the prediction of the MaxEnt model was highly in line with the actual distribution under current climate conditions, and the simulation accuracy was very high. The distribution of S. guani is mainly affected by bio18 (Precipitation of Warmest Quarter), bio11 (Mean Temperature of Coldest Quarter), bio13 (Precipitation of Wettest Month), and bio3 (Isothermality). The suitable habitat of S. guani in China is mainly distributed in the Northeast China Plain, North China Plain, middle‐lower Yangtze Plain, and Sichuan Basin, with total suitable area of 547.05 × 104 km2, accounting for 56.85% of China’s territory. Furthermore, under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios in the 2050s and 2090s, the areas of high, medium, and low suitability showed different degrees of change compared to nowadays, exhibiting expansion trend in the future. This work provides theoretical support for related research on pest control and ecological protection.

Flood vulnerability mapping and urban sprawl suitability using FR, LR, and SVM models.

Floods are among the most destructive disasters because they cause immense damage to human life, property (land and buildings), and resources. They also slow down a country's economy. Due to the dynamic and complex nature of floods, it is difficult to predict the areas that are prone to flooding. In this study, an attempt was made to create a suitability map for future urban development based on flood vulnerability maps for the catchment area of Taif, Saudi Arabia. Three models were used for this purpose, including bivariate (FR), multivariate (LR), and machine learning (SVM) were used. Thirteen parameters were used as flood-contributing parameters. The inventory map was constructed using field surveys, historical data, analysis of RADAR (Sentinel-1A), and Google Earth imagery collected between 2013 and 2020. In general, 70% flood locations were randomly selected from the flood inventory map to generate the flood susceptibility model, and the remaining 30% of the flood locations were used for model validation. The flood susceptibility map was classified into five zones: very low, low, moderate, high, and very high. The AUC value used to predict the performance of the models showed that the accuracy reached 89.5, 92.0, and 96.2% for the models FR, LR, and SVM, respectively. Accordingly, the flood susceptibility map produced by the SVM model is accurate and was used to produce a flood vulnerability map with the help of urban and road density maps. Then slope and elevation maps were integrated with the flood vulnerability model to produce the final suitability map, which was classified into three zones: isolated zone, low suitability, and high suitability areas. The results showed that the highly suitable areas are located in the east and northeast of the Taif Basin, where the flood risk is low and very low. The results of this work will improve the land use planning of engineers and authorities and take possible measures to reduce the flood hazards in the area.

P352 Molds and yeasts on the beach: environmental factors influencing distribution of fungi along european shores

Poster session 3, September 23, 2022, 12:30 PM - 1:30 PMObjectivesThe present study employed data collected during the Mycosands survey to investigate the environmental factors influencing yeasts and molds distribution along European shores by applying a species distribution modeling approach.MethodsOccurrence data were compared to climatic datasets (temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation), soil datasets (chemical and physical properties), and water datasets (temperature, salinity, and chlorophyll concentration) downloaded from web databases. All dataset layers were edited and formatted by QGIS software and analyses were performed by MaxEnt software.ResultsThe distribution maps inferred comparing occurrence data on shores for Aspergillus spp., Aspergillus fumigatus, A. flavus, A. niger, Fusarium spp., dematiaceous fungi, and considering all molds, to climatic datasets showed the highest probability of presence along Eastern and South-Central Mediterranean coasts, whereas comparison of water occurrence data to water features identified a high suitability along Eastern Mediterranean coasts, Gulf of Lion, Southern coasts of Spain, and Southern and Central Atlantic coast of Portugal, Southern Atlantic coast of France, Netherlands coasts, the mouth of Danube, coasts of the Ireland sea, and Kuri Lagoon in Lithuania. The main variables contributing to the models were minimum temperatures in winter, water temperature during spring, and chlorophyll concentration. The comparison with soil datasets showed a high tolerance of soils with a high concentration of CaCO3 and basic pH. Nitrogen concentration was tolerated at values below 1 g/kg and phosphorus concentration at values <20 mg/kg and >40 mg/kg. In addition, the model identified a high tolerance to soils rich in nickel.The same analyses were performed for the following groups of occurrence data: Candida spp., Rhodotorula spp., and all yeasts. Results showed the highest probability of presence on shores located along the coasts of Eastern Mediterranean Sea, Southern-Central Mediterranean Sea, Northern Adriatic Sea coasts, Kuri Lagoon, and Northern European coasts from France to Denmark. In waters, high suitability areas were located along the coasts of Northern Black Sea, Northern Adriatic Sea, coasts of Ireland Sea, Western Atlantic coast of France, and the Northern European coasts from France to western Denmark. The most relevant variables contributing to the model were minimum temperatures during winter and water chlorophyll concentration. The comparison with soil features showed similar results to those obtained for molds, except a high tolerance for soils rich in cadmium.Conclusions: All together our results suggest a different probability of distribution of yeasts and molds along European shores. Yeasts seem to tolerate low temperatures better during winter than molds and this reflects a higher suitability for the Northern European coasts. This difference is more evident considering suitability in waters. Both distributions of molds and yeasts are influenced by basic soil pH, probably because acidic soils are more favorable to bacterial growth. Soils with high nitrogen concentrations are not suitable for fungal growth, which, in contrast, are optimal for plant growth, favored by this environment. Finally, molds show affinity with soil rich in nickel and yeasts with soils rich in cadmium resulting in a distribution mainly at the mouths of European rivers or lagoons, where these metals accumulate in river sediments.

Predicting the Potential Distribution of the Endangered Plant Cremastra appendiculata (Orchidaceae) in China under Multiple Climate Change Scenarios

Cremastraappendiculata (Orchidaceae) is a perennial medicinal herb, which is included in the national second-class protected plant catalog in China. Due to the influences of climate change and anthropogenic activities, in conjunction with soaring commercial prices, the wild sources of C.appendiculata have been drastically reduced and are in danger of extinction. Consequently, it is important to predict the distribution of potentially suitable growth/propagation areas for C.appendiculata under the backdrop of climate change for its protection and sustainable use. For this study, an optimized maximum entropy model was employed to analyze the distribution patterns and changes of potentially suitable regions for C.appendiculata during different periods since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 18–24 ka). Based on multiple climate change scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5), the distribution range of C. appendiculata was predicted for the 2050s (average for 2041–2060), 2070s (average for 2061–2080), and 2090s (average for 2081–2100). The results revealed that during the LGM period, the highly suitable growth area for C.appendiculata was 0.28 × 104 km2, which accounted for only 3.26% of the current highly suitable growth area. During the mid-Holocene (MH, 6 ka) period, the area of highly suitable regions increased to 8.38 × 104 km2, which accounted for 99.30% of the present highly suitable growth area. Further, the cumulative existing potentially suitable growth area for C. appendiculata is 213.9 × 104 km2, which accounts for 22.28% of China’s territory. Of these lands, the low, medium, and high suitable areas are 147.76 × 104 km2, 57.71 × 104 km2, and 8.44 × 104 km2, respectively. The highly suitable areas are primarily distributed across Sichuan, Gansu, Shaanxi, Chongqing, Guizhou, Hubei, and Anhui Provinces. Moreover, in the future the potentially suitable growth areas for C. appendiculata will decrease to varying degrees. Further, the results of this study found that the relatively low impact areas for C. appendiculata were mainly distributed across Shaanxi, Sichuan, Chongqing, and Guizhou Provinces. Centroid transfer analysis indicated that the center of potentially suitable growth areas for C.appendiculata shifted to the northwest in SSP2-4.5 and SSP3-7.0, while they initially shifted to the northwest and then to the southeast in SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5.

Spatial suitability evaluation of spawning reach revealing the location preference for fish producing drifting eggs

Hydrologic (water temperature) and hydrodynamic (water depth, flow velocity, and Froude number) factors affect fish spawning activities, and spawning grounds provide suitable hydrologic and hydrodynamic conditions for fish spawning to occur. However, locating fish spawning grounds is encumbered by uncertainty, particularly for pelagic spawners. This may be because such fish species have unique hydrologic and hydrodynamic requirements during their spawning periods, resulting in the wide-ranging approaches used to locate their spawning grounds. Accordingly, this study was designed to accurately locate fish spawning grounds through means of spatial suitability evaluation. For this experiment, the four major “Asian carp” target species were selected in the Dongta spawning reach, a tributary of the Pearl River. First, we investigated the historical information on the location of the spawning reaches. An acoustic doppler current profiler (ADCP) was used to measure topographic and hydrodynamic data of the spawning reaches during the spawning period. Then, based on the spatial clustering method, cluster analysis on spatial attributes (water depth, flow velocity, water temperature, and Froude number) was conducted on potential spawning grounds. The cluster analysis method uses k-means clustering; a method often employed to classify large amounts of data. Finally, we analyzed and evaluated the spatial suitability of spawning reaches by combining fish spawning suitability curves to obtain spatial preferences associated with fish spawning activities. Proportionally, results revealed a high suitability (&amp;gt;0.4) area (60.86%). Moreover, spawning suitability in curved river sections and deep pools in straight river sections were significantly higher than bifurcated sections. Furthermore, areas near the riverbanks were more suitable than mid-course sections of the river. Finally, the locations of six potential Asian carp spawning grounds were determined according to their spatial suitability. This study provides technical support to accurately locate spawning grounds for the fish that produce drifting eggs.

Predicting the Potential Suitable Distribution of Larix principis-rupprechtii Mayr under Climate Change Scenarios

Larix principis-rupprechtii Mayr (larch) is a native conifer species in North China, and also a major silvicultural and timber species in the region. Climate change has led to a change in its suitable distribution area. However, the dominant factors affecting changes in its suitable distribution and migration trends are not clear. In this study, based on forest resource inventory data and bioclimatic data in Hebei and Shanxi provinces, China, we built an ensemble model based on seven algorithms to simulate the larch’s potential suitable distribution areas under three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) for the current and future (2021–2040, 2041–2060 and 2080–2100). The results revealed that: (1) ensemble models significantly improved the predictive accuracy (ROC = 0.95, TSS = 0.81, KAPPA = 0.65); (2) the current potentially suitable distribution area was concentrated in the Bashang Plateau and the northwestern mountain range of the study area. Among them, 12.38% were highly suitable distribution areas, 12.67% were moderately suitable distribution areas, and 12.01% were lowly suitable distribution areas; (3) the main climatic factors affecting larch distribution were mean temperature of driest quarter, mean diurnal range, precipitation of warmest quarter, and temperature annual range; (4) under different future climate scenarios, the contraction of the suitable distribution area of larch increased significantly with increasing SSP radiation intensity. By 2100, the suitable distribution area of larch was expected to decrease by 26.5% under SSP1-2.6, 57.9% under SSP2-4.5, and 75.7% under SSP5-8.5 scenarios; (5) from 2021 to 2100, the different suitable distribution areas of larch showed a trend of migration to the northeast. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, the migration distance of different suitable distribution areas was the largest, in which the high suitable distribution area migrated 232.60 km, the middle suitable distribution area migrated 206.75 km, and the low suitable distribution area migrated 163.43 km. The results revealed the impact of climate change on the larch distribution, which provided a scientific basis for making forest management decisions.

Spatial Structure and Corridor Construction of Intangible Cultural Heritage: A Case Study of the Ming Great Wall

Exploring the spatial structure of intangible cultural heritage (ICH) and constructing heritage corridors are conducive to the adaptive reuse of heritage and the improvement of the surviving environment, which is of great significance to the living inheritance of ICH. Guided by the concept of the heritage corridor, this study took the ICH along the Ming Great Wall as the research object. Kernel density estimation and a standard deviation ellipse analysis were used to explore the spatial structure and then combined with a suitability analysis of heritage corridors to further explore the spatial locations of corridors. A multifactor spatial superposition was carried out with the minimal cumulative resistance (MCR) method. The resistance factors, including land use type, elevation, slope, road system, river system, and the heritage corridors, were constructed. The results show that: (1) ICH along the Ming Great Wall forms a spatial pattern of “three cores and one belt”. The high-density core areas exist in Beijing and Liaoning, and the secondary core areas exist in northern Ningxia and southwestern Inner Mongolia. This results from the joint action of the natural, economic, and social environment. (2) On the whole, all kinds of ICH are distributed from southwest to northeast, among which folk art is particularly obvious. (3) The distribution trend of suitability is “high in the east and low in the west”. The high-suitability areas are mainly concentrated in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Liaoning regions, while the low-suitability areas are concentrated in Gansu, Ningxia, and northern Inner Mongolia. Finally, this study discusses the appropriate development mode of the heritage corridors of the Ming Great Wall from the macrolevel to the mesolevel.

Diagnosis and potential invasion risk of Thrips parvispinus under current and future climate change scenarios.

Background and ObjectiveInvasive thrips, Thrips parvispinus Karny recently reported in India, causing a widespread severe infestation in more than 0.4 million ha of chilli (Capsicum annum L.) growing areas. This species is native to Thailand and most prevalent in other South East Asian countries. Large scale cultivation of the major host plants (chilli and papaya), and favourable climatic conditions in India and other countries similar to native range of Thrips parvispinus expected to favour its further spread and establishment to new areas.Materials and MethodsThe present study was undertaken to confirm invasive thrips species identity through both morphological and molecular approaches and predict its potential invasion using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) algorithm.ResultsThe model predicted species range in respect of discrimination of suitable and unsuitable areas for its occurrence both in current and future climatic scenarios. The model provided a good fit for species distribution with a high value of area under the curve (0.957). The jackknife test indicated annual mean temperature and precipitation were found to be the most important bioclimatic variable in determining the distribution of T. parvispinus. High suitability areas were predicted in the countries wherever its occurrence was reported with high discrimination ability of suitable and unsuitable areas. Key distinguishing morphological characters of T. parvispinus were illustrated through high-resolution scanning electron microscopic images.ConclusionThe identity of the thrips causing wide spread damage in chilli confirmed through morphological and molecular approaches. Key identifying characters were described through high resolution scanning electron microscopic images for accurate identification of the species. MaxEnt model identified high suitability regions for the potential establishment of T. parvispinus in India and other parts of the world. This study facilitates forecasting of further spread and also suggests imposing strict domestic quarantine measures to curtail its establishment in the new areas.

Assessment of Climate Suitability for Human Settlements in Tibet, China

Climate is an important factor that affects the livability of a region. The climate suitability of a region's environment for human settlement profoundly affects the regional socio-economic development and the population distribution. Tibet is an area that is sensitive to climate change. Given the impact of global climate change, the climate suitability of Tibet has undergone significant changes. In this study, the temperature humidity index (THI) values for Tibet were calculated, and the relationships between the population distribution and the THI were analyzed quantitatively. In this way, the zoning standards for climate suitability in Tibet were determined such that the climate suitability could be evaluated. The results show that the average annual temperature in the southeast of Tibet, where the population was densely distributed, was relatively high. The mean annual relative humidity showed a trend of gradually decreasing from south to north. Regions with a suitable climate, including the high suitability areas (HSAs), the moderately suitable areas (MSAs) and the low suitability areas (LSAs), accounted for only 7.90% of the total area but accommodated over 40% of the total population. The critically suitable areas (CSAs) accounted for 37.81% of the land area and 48.24% of the total population. Non-suitable areas (NSAs) were widely distributed in Tibet and accounted for 54.29% of the total area and 11.33% of the total population. The results of this study may provide a reference for guiding the reasonable distribution of population and promoting the optimization of the spatial planning in Tibet.

Modelling climate suitability for Striga asiatica, a potential invasive weed of cereal crops

Striga asiatica (L.) Kuntze (Lamiales: Orobanchaceae), a hemi-parasitic plant native to sub-Saharan Africa and tropical Asia, is particularly problematic to rice, corn, and sorghum cultivation in Africa. Striga asiatica produces a large number of small sized (<0.5 mm) seeds, thereby facilitating easy dispersion by commercial exchange of contaminated grains. The distribution of this species in Africa is regulated by climate, which is the main factor determining local suitability. Modelling is a useful tool to analyse climate suitability for species. This study aimed to determine the areas more vulnerable to S. asiatica invasion both in the present and under the projected climate change model using two methods: MaxEnt (as a correlative approach) and CLIMEX (as a semi-mechanistic approach). The MIROC-H Global Climate Model and the A2 and RCP 8.5 scenarios (the most pessimistic one) were used. Our projections indicated areas suitable for S. asiatica invasion in all continents under both present and projected climate change, with high suitability areas in South America, Africa, and Europe. We found agreement and disagreement between CLIMEX and MaxEnt outputs and the extent of disagreement on the increases in climate suitability by 2050 and 2100 in North America, Europe, and eastern, southern, and western Australia. This study provides a useful tool to design strategies aimed at preventing the introduction and establishment of S. asiatica in South America, with considerable agreement between CLIMEX and MaxEnt outputs.

Geospatial analysis for fish farming across Tyrrhenian coast (Tuscany, central Italy)

Aquaculture represents an important source of food and it plays an important role in terms of contribution to economic development. Offshore farming offers considerable advantages, especially in terms of production costs (lower than those of onshore facilities) and of farmed product quality. Suitable areas for aquaculture activities are still available in Italy but are increasingly limited and the demand for new farms is high. The lack of coastal areas allocated to aquaculture and the complex regulatory and legal framework constitutes the major constraints for further development of the sector. Zoning is the process that can allow to sustainably identify and allocate suitable areas for aquaculture. Several aspects, such as effective legal framework and procedures, collection of bio-geochemical, physical and socio-economical information, are crucial for a correct aquaculture zoning process in order to identify the Allocated Zones for Aquaculture (AZAs). In the present work, a spatial multi-criteria decision analysis (SMCDA) was applied for the individuation of potentially suitable marine areas for fish farming across the southern Tyrrhenian coast of Tuscany (Italy). The spatial model was developed by collecting and processing Earth Observation (EO) data, oceanography in situ measurements, and infrastructural and environmental constraints. Excluding areas of constrains, obtained results highlight that 96% of the total investigated area is characterized by medium (62%) and high (34%) suitability. In particular, the highest suitability areas occur in the Talamone gulf and offhore the Argentario promontory at water depth between 15 and 30 m and 30 50m, respectively. Other high suitability areas occur northern of Piombino town between 30 and 100 m depth. Environmental data at higher spatial resolution are needed to improve aquaculture zoning and further process of site selection in order to ensure the sustainability of fish farming in the study area.

Habitat selection of high trophic-level predatory fishes in protected and unprotected areas: The effects of density and maturity stage

Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) are useful tools for the conservation of fishes, providing that they include the essential habitats for the focal species. Habitat selection may depend on external (i.e., environmental conditions, food availability, and shelter) and internal (i.e., density-dependent processes) factors. Additionally, most fishes undergo ontogenetic shifts along their life cycles, thus, understanding the habitat requirements at each stage is of great interest for the correct design and functioning of MPAs. Here, we evaluated habitat preferences of high-level predatory fishes, namely Epinephelus marginatus, Epinephelus costae, Mycteroperca rubra, Dentex dentex, Sciaena umbra and Sphyraena viridensis to assess differences between species, maturity stages and density of fish. To do so, we applied Species Distribution Models (SDMs) in protected and unprotected areas along the coast of Murcia (SE Spain) to determine if those areas are properly located for the conservation of the focal species. We included three areas with different density of fishes. One area with high density in the long-term protected Cabo de Palos-Islas Hormigas MPA, and two with low density in the newly established Cabo Tiñoso MPA and the unprotected area of Cabo Cope. We evaluated the environmental variables that affect the occurrence of the species at two life stages, before and after achieving size at maturity. SDMs showed that bathymetry, habitat complexity and rocky bottoms were the most important drivers determining species distribution in both areas with high and low density of fish, although there were differences in the contribution of the variables at each location. Additionally, we found that habitat requirements were different for the immature and mature individuals, generally being the immatures the most sensitive to changes in habitats. Both MPAs and the unprotected area largely included areas of high suitability for the studied species, indicating that the MPAs are established in proper areas, and suggesting another area for the establishment of a new MPA to enhance a MPA network in the region.

Predicting the potential distribution of Dactylorhiza hatagirea (D. Don) Soo-an important medicinal orchid in the West Himalaya, under multiple climate change scenarios.

Climate variability coupled with anthropogenic pressures is the most critical driver in the Himalayan region for forest ecosystem vulnerability. Dactylorhiza hatagirea (D.Don) Soo is an important yet highly threatened medicinal orchid from the Himalayan region. Poor regenerative power and growing demand have resulted in the steep decline of its natural habitats populations. The present study aims to identify the habitat suitability of D. hatagirea in the Western Himalaya using the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt). The community climate system model (CCSM ver. 4) based on representative concentration pathways (RCPs) was used to determine suitable future areas. Sixteen least correlated (< 0.8) bioclimatic, topographical and geomorphic variables were used to construct the species climatic niche. The dominant contributing variables were elevation (34.85%) followed by precipitation of the coldest quarter (23.04%), soil type (8.77%), land use land cover (8.26%), mean annual temperature (5.51%), and temperature seasonality (5.11%). Compared to the present distribution, habitat suitability under future projection, i.e., RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 (2050 and 2070), was found to shift to higher elevation towards the northwest direction, while lower altitudes will invariably be less suitable. Further, as compared to the current distribution, the climatic niche space of the species is expected to expand in between11.41-22.13% in the near future. High habitats suitability areas are mainly concentrated in the forest range like Dharchula and Munsyari range, Pindar valley, Kedarnath Wildlife Sanctuary, West of Nanda Devi Biosphere Reserve, and Uttarkashi forest division. The present study delineated the fundamental niche baseline map of D. hatagirea in the Western Himalayas and highlighted regions/areas where conservation and management strategies should be intensified in the next 50 years. In addition, as the species is commercially exploited illegally, the information gathered is essential for conservationists and planners who protect the species at the regional levels.

Potential impact of climate change on the distribution and conservation status of Pterocarpus marsupium, a Near Threatened South Asian medicinal tree species

Climate change is considered as an important environmental issue globally, affecting geographic distributions of endangered species, and reducing the extent of their natural habitats. We characterized the potential geographic distribution of a Near Threatened tree species, Pterocarpus marsupium, in South Asia. We evaluated the potential geographic distribution of the species under present and future conditions using ecological niche modeling approaches. The future potential distribution of the species was examined under two representative concentration pathway scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5), using outputs from 8 general circulation models for 2050. The present-day distribution of the species covers much of India and Sri Lanka, and parts of Nepal and Bhutan. Model transfers for future-climate conditions indicated a potentially dramatic geographic shift of high-suitability areas for parts of the species' distribution, particularly in central India. In distributional areas that are adjacent to high-mountain areas, under climate change, suitable areas for the species are anticipated to shift towards higher elevations. The results of this study may be useful in identifying currently undocumented populations of P. marsupium, as well as in identifying sites likely to be suitable both at present and in the future for conservation management planning.

Mangrove Biodiversity, GIS Weighted Overlay Analysis, and Mapping of Suitable Areas in Alabel, Sarangani Province, Philippines

The utility of Geographic Information System (GIS) has been adopted in mapping and predicting sites for mangrove suitability in Alabel, Sarangani Province, Province. Biodiversity assessment of coastal mangroves in Alabel, Sarangani Province, Philippines was performed in purposive manner using sampling quadrats. There were 13 observed mangrove species in sand-dominated (51.48%) soil. The sampled field data points are scattered irregularly, showing slight curvature on the east-west trendline but a flatter surface on the north-south trendline. The abundance and soil data were converted into shapefiles and subjected to inverse distance weighted (IDW) interpolation. The rasterized and reclassified thematic map layers were assigned with factor influence consisting of mangrove abundance (40%), land cover (30%), sand composition (20%), and slope (10%) for suitability analysis. The suitable mangrove areas were computed using weighted overlay suitability analysis, and the final score for the suitability index was converted into suitability classes. Prediction of mangrove suitable areas was performed under the ModelBuilder workflow tool in ArcMap. The mangrove suitability classes were extracted using a zonal geometry tool depicting three suitability classes. The predicted mangrove high suitability areas covered 463.37 km2, the low suitability areas covered 573.02 km2, and the unsuitable areas covered 9,403.77 km2. The study utilized a combination of field gathering and available online data for GIS analysis which local government units could perform. The results could be used to plan and manage mangrove resources in the area effectively.

Prediction of Suitable Future Natural Areas for Highland Barley on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)

Global climate change, mainly characterized by warming, has resulted in significant migration of temperature-sensitive crops from traditional planting areas, making crops more vulnerable to climate change and natural disasters, increasing yield losses caused by disasters. Based on the MaxEnt model, combining Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5, the potential suitable areas for highland barley planting on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau were estimated, and the results showed that: (1) Over 30% of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is unsuitable for highland barley cultivation, the area of moderately suitable area for highland barley planting is close to 50%, and the marginally suitable and highly suitable area is less than 20%; (2) From the past distribution to the near and medium-term distributions, the unsuitable area for highland barley planting is gradually shrinking. In the moderately suitable area for highland barley planting, some of the area with relatively low suitability was transformed from unsuitable area, and some of the area with relatively high suitability was transformed into marginally suitable area, so that the total area remained basically unchanged. A small part of the marginally suitable area was converted into high-suitability area, which increased the highly suitable area; (3) From the perspective of different scenarios, in the near and medium term, the area with a slight decrease or no change in suitability under RCP 8.5 was smaller than under RCP 4.5, but the area with a significant increase was larger than under RCP 4.5. The areas with a small decrease or no change in suitability accounted for 23.66–33.77% of the total plateau area and were concentrated in the northwestern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and the Qaidam Basin. Areas with a large increase in suitability accounted for 3.47–15.64% of the total area and were located in the southern, central, and eastern parts of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, this area increased significantly with time; (4) Judging from the average altitude change in highland barley planting, the average altitude of the highly suitable area will rise from 3759 m to 3937 m (RCP 4.5) and 3959 m (RCP 8.5) in the near term. By the medium term, the average elevation of the highly suitable area will increase from 3759 m to 4017 m (RCP 4.5) and 4090 m (RCP 8.5). The trend of rising average altitude continues to strengthen.

Predicting habitat suitability and range shifts under projected climate change for two octocorals in the north-east Atlantic.

Species distribution models have become a valuable tool to predict the distribution of species across geographic space and time. In this study, maximum entropy models were constructed for two temperate shallow-water octocoral species, the pink sea fan (Eunicella verrucosa) and dead man’s fingers (Alcyonium digitatum), to investigate and compare habitat suitability. The study area covered the north-east Atlantic from the Bay of Biscay to the British Isles and southern Norway; this area includes both the northern range of E. verrucosa and the middle-northern range of A. digitatum. The optimal models for each species showed that, overall, slope, temperature at the seafloor and wave orbital velocity were important predictors of distribution in both species. Predictions of habitat suitability showed areas of present-day (1951–2000) suitable habitat where colonies have not yet been observed, particularly for E. verrucosa, where areas beyond its known northern range limit were identified. Moreover, analysis with future layers (2081–2100) of temperature and oxygen concentration predicted a sizable increase in habitat suitability for E. verrucosa beyond these current range limits under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario. This suggests that projected climate change may induce a potential range expansion northward for E. verrucosa, although successful colonisation would also be conditional on other factors such as dispersal and interspecific competition. For A. digitatum, this scenario of projected climate change may result in more suitable habitat in higher latitudes, but, as with E. verrucosa, there is a degree of uncertainty in the model predictions. Importantly, the results from this study highlight present-day areas of high habitat suitability which, if combined with knowledge on population density, could be used to identify priority areas to enhance protection and ensure the long-term survival of these octocoral species in the region.

Disembarking in port: Early detection of the ascidian Ascidiella scabra (Müller, 1776) in a SW Atlantic port and forecast of its worldwide environmental suitability

We performed morphological analyses on Ascidiella individuals collected on artificial substrates deployed at Puerto Madryn (Argentina) and individuals from collections. We test the validity of traditional characters, used previously to evaluate differences between two congeneric Ascidiella species. The study reveals A. scabra in a port area of the SW Atlantic for the first time, and represents the second record of the species outside its native range. The species could have arrived to South America as biofouling in ship hulls, having established itself in ports, but ignored for a time, confused with its congener A.aspersa, also non-indigenous species for the study area. Ecological Niche Model approaches display potential risk of introduction in high suitable areas worldwide, highlighting these located far away from the native distribution, such as the NW Atlantic and the SW Pacific. The spread along coastal areas of the SW Atlantic could also be expected.