High Disaster Risk Research Articles

Mapping Drought Disaster Risk Due to Climate Change in Kulon Progo District, Indonesia

Kulon Progo Regency is one of the regencies that always experiences severe drought. One of the factors that cause drought in Kulon Progo Regency is climate change due to global warming which causes changes in rainfall. The existence of drought certainly causes many problems in life due to the lack of water supply. Therefore, the purpose of this research is to conduct disaster risk mapping to obtain information on how to mitigate drought. The method used is to calculate the drought index using the Thornthwaite Matter method, calculate vulnerability based on BPS data, and calculate regional capacity based on the Regulation of BNBP Number 3 of 2012. After that, the calculation of disaster risk is then mapped. In this study, disaster risk is divided into two, disaster risk per year and dry months. The results of the annual disaster risk found that almost all sub-districts experienced low drought disaster risk, except for the Grimulyo sub-district which experienced moderate drought disaster risk. For the results of disaster risk in dry months, it is found that five sub-districts are classified into the low disaster risk category, namely Temon, Wates, Panjatan, Galur, and Nanggulan sub-districts. In addition, there are five sub-districts that fall into the medium disaster risk category, namely Lendah, Sentolo, Pengasih, Kokap, and Kalibawang. Finally, there are two sub-districts that fall into the high disaster risk category, namely Girimulyo and Samigaluh sub-districts.

Hot spots for risk-based planning in Greece – the cases of floods and forest fires

ABSTRACT Recent flood and forest fire disasters in Greece highlight the local spatial development history and territorial vulnerability as principal causes. However, despite the strong spatial aspects of disaster risk, disaster management rarely finds its way into spatial planning. The article attempts to locate high disaster risk areas (hot-spots) in Greece and activate risk-based planning. The approach combines theoretical assumptions on the spatial dimension of disaster risk; macro-scale hazard zoning at the national-regional level through past disaster event mapping; meso-scale territorial vulnerability analysis to delimit disaster risk hot-spots; and discussion on statutory planning tools and scales of intervention for risk mitigation.

Understanding Socioeconomic Risk and Vulnerability to Climate Change–Induced Disasters: The Case of Informal Settlements in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

This study employs a qualitative research approach to spatially delineate the risk and vulnerability of informal settlements in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. This comes after devastating floods that occurred in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, in April 2022. This disaster emphasised the necessity for South Africa to proactively address natural hazards by implementing risk reduction strategies rather than attempting to mitigate the impact after the damage has occurred. Evidence indicates that the risk and vulnerability associated with climate-induced disasters, such as flooding, are exacerbated by socioeconomic factors, including housing shortages, which compel individuals to construct dwellings in flood-prone areas. Opportunities exist to enhance the understanding of disaster risk reduction in Africa, and South Africa in particular, through science-informed initiatives employing spatial techniques, including geographic information systems, hazard exposure mapping, and socioeconomic risk and vulnerability mapping. These techniques are crucial for humanitarian planning focused on long-term risk reduction, early recovery, shelter, reconstruction, and psychosocial support for climate change disaster recovery. Furthermore, an understanding of the nature and location of areas with high disaster risk, such as flooding, is essential for the formulation of disaster risk reduction strategies, including early warning systems.

Characterization of extreme rainfall changes and response to temperature changes in Guizhou Province, China

Different geographical zones have regional heterogeneity in underlying earth surface structure and microclimate which result in different evolution trends and their response to climate change varies in extreme rainfalls in these zones. In the Guizhou province of China, there are complex landforms, which lead to spatial redistribution of rainfall, frequent extreme rainfall, and disasters high risk of geologic disasters. Research on extreme climate in Guizhou mostly paid attention to its spatio-temporal characteristics and modeling, but lack of analysis on its characteristics of extreme rainfall variability and response to temperature changes under different subsurface conditions. This study investigated the characteristics of the extreme rainfall spatiotemporal and recurrence periods in Guizhou province and discussed the relationship between the response of extreme rainfall to temperature change. Daily rainfall data from 1990 to 2020 and 2021–2100 at 31 meteorological observation stations throughout the province were collected to calculate extreme precipitation. This research had the following results. (1) Both historical and future periods show an upward trend in extreme rainfall in Guizhou province, with a spatial distribution pattern of “high in the south and low in the north, high in the east and low in the west” and “high in the southeast and low in the northwest”, respectively; the spatial distribution of extreme rainfall under each recurrence period is consistent with the non-recurrence period. (2) Both historical and future periods show an upward trend in temperature in Guizhou province, with a spatial distribution consistent with that of the extreme rainfall in the corresponding period. (3) The change in extreme rainfall intensity with increasing temperature is almost always greater than the C–C rate for different periods and underlying earth surface structure; Extreme rainfall has a Hook response structure to temperature change, and the climate response structure shifts to the right with climate warming. The results of the study can provide a basis for decision-making on regional disaster prevention and mitigation in the context of temperature change.

Association between Disaster Knowledge Level and the First Step of Stockpiling Food for a Disaster.

This study clarifies the association between disaster knowledge levels and beginning to stockpile food at home as a disaster preparedness. This survey was conducted between 18-20 December 2019 using a self-administered web-based questionnaire. The participants were recruited from panel members of an online survey company. A total of 1,200 adults living in the five Japanese prefectures with the highest predicted food shortages after the anticipated Nankai Trough earthquake, took part in the study. Multivariable logistic regression analyses revealed a significant positive relationship between disaster knowledge level and beginning food stockpiling (p for trend <0.001). Compared with those who had a low level of disaster knowledge, participants who had a medium level of knowledge were 2.11 times more likely to begin stockpiling food (adjusted odds ratio [OR]: 2.11, 95% confidence intervals [CI]: 1.49-2.97), whereas those with the highest knowledge level were 2.52 times more likely to begin stockpiling food (adjusted OR: 2.52, 95% CI: 1.79-3.56). Beginning food stockpiling can be the first step toward disaster preparedness. It is considered that people with low disaster knowledge levels are more likely to have no beginning food stockpiling and are at high risk for disasters. These findings suggest ways to approach prioritizing people facing high disaster risk.

Determinants influencing tourists’ willingness to visit Türkiye – Impact of earthquake hazards on Serbian visitors’ preferences

Abstract Earthquakes are a rather complex natural phenomenon that cannot be prevented, and their effects can be catastrophic and have profound implications on various economic sectors (especially tourism). This study investigates the relationships between subjective factors (gender, age, education, previous experience, and disaster anxiety), the perceived travel risk, and the travel intention of tourists from Serbia to destinations in Türkiye. The pilot study was done in March 2023 with 110 respondents from the Faculty of Science, Department of Geography, Tourism, and Hotel Management, Novi Sad. After the validation of the instruments, the main survey was conducted in the period from March to June 2023. The subjects of interest were residents of Serbia over the age of 18. The data from this study are analyzed using the confirmatory factor analysis and path analyses. This study aims to enhance the understanding of perceived risk and travel intention, specifically focusing on Türkiye. The assessed outcome relates to how tourists perceive three specific categories of risk when traveling to destinations with a high risk of natural disasters, such as earthquake-prone areas. The findings suggest that older respondents tend to perceive lower physical and financial travel risks, even though the influence of age on the perception of socio-psychological risks was inconclusive. Further results reveal that individuals with prior experience tend to hold a heightened perception of physical, financial, and socio-psychological risks. An examination of the relationship between disaster anxiety and perceived travel risks indicates that physical, financial, and socio-psychological risks exert a negative influence on travel intention. Thus, this study may provide a conceptual foundation for both theoretical and practical implications for the improvement of risk management techniques at a specific travel destination in areas prone to earthquake hazards.

Assessing Sustainable Development in Community Welfare and Economic Resilience to Extreme Weather in Indonesia

In recent decades, Indonesia has experienced a surge in natural disasters, resulting in increased casualties and disruptions to economic growth and welfare. This study investigates the impact of various types of natural disasters, focusing on how economic growth (measured by provincial GDP) and welfare levels (measured by the Human Development Index, HDI) influence the number of victims affected by extreme weather. Data on gross regional domestic product and the Human Development Index for each province in Indonesia were obtained from Statistics Indonesia. We employed multivariable negative binomial regression to analyze the relationships between the number of victims affected by extreme weather, provincial HDI, and provincial GDP. The results indicate significant correlations between provincial GDP, HDI, and the number of victims. Higher HDI correlates with fewer victims, whereas higher GDP is associated with an increase in victims. Additionally, we used the Self-Organizing Map (SOM) method, identifying two clusters as the optimal model. Cluster 1 comprises 31 provinces, while Cluster 2 comprises 3 provinces, with the latter highlighting the provinces with the highest disaster risk. Consequently, provinces such as West Java, Central Java, and East Java require heightened attention from various stakeholders involved in disaster management efforts. By examining these relationships, our study contributes to the understanding of sustainable development and resilience against natural disasters. It underscores the importance of improving welfare and economic policies to mitigate the impacts of extreme weather events.

Photogrammetry of airborne image set at high landslide disaster risk region using Meshroom and Blender

Abstract We report the application of the photogrammetry method to reconstruct three-dimensional topographic mesh at a high disaster risk region. This work is aimed to identify the landslide potencies of the area by means of slope analysis of the given area around the Bandung Basin rim. Our method proposes a low-cost aerial survey and an effective algorithm in order to map the local landslide tendencies. In order to perform image processing and 3D representation we utilized the photogrammetric pipeline in the Meshroom software. The post-processing of the 3D model was performed using Blender. In this research, we use a commercial camera drone as an image capturing device. As a test case we processed 183 images of an area of 51 m². The image-processing takes about 39 minutes on a 12 cores computer accompanied with a GPU card. From this set of images, we have yielded a three-dimensional slope structure comprising a total of 85,850 mesh nodes. As the result of this research, we propose the optimization of the image set and a list of post processing works of the nodes that can be used in order to characterize landslide disaster risk of the disaster-prone region in a fast and accurate manner.

DISASTER-SAFE-SCHOOL BASED PROGRAM FOR THE PSYCHOLOGICAL PREPAREDNESS OF ELEMENTARY SCHOOL STUDENTS

Background: Earthquake and tsunami are high risk disasters in the coastal areas of Java. The lack of psychological preparedness in coastal areas poses a threat to risk groups, especially school-aged children. Prevention efforts that can be carried out are through disaster-safe school-based programs through disaster management educational vehicles Objectives: The aim of this research was to analyze the influence of disaster-safe school-based programs on psychological preparedness in facing earthquake and tsunami disasters in school-aged children Methods: . The method used was a pre-experimental design. The sampling technique used purposive sampling with a sample size of 54 respondents. The sample was school age children who lived on the coast of Malang Regency. The measuring tool used the Psychological Preparedness for Disaster Threat Scale (PPDTS) questionnaire. The statistical test used was the paired t-test Results: The results showed that there were differences in psychological preparedness before and after school-aged children were given a school-based program that was safe from earthquake and tsunami disasters (0.000). Conclusion: The conclusion is that there is an influence/impact of disaster-safe school-based programs on the psychological preparedness of school-aged children in facing earthquakes and tsunamis.

UJI VALIDITAS IBFWS (IMPACT BASE FORECAST AND WARNING SERVICES) DALAM MEMPREDIKSIKAN WILAYAH YANG BERPOTENSI TERDAMPAK BANJIR DI KALIMANTAN SELATAN

South Kalimantan is one of the provinces in Indonesia which has a high risk of flood disasters seen from its physical condition, which geographically is mostly located below sea level. In 2021, 11 out of a total of 13 districts and cities in South Kalimantan were affected by flooding on a large scale, which caused tens of thousands of residents to suffer losses and even lost family members. IBFWS (Impact Base Forecast and Warning Services) is present as the latest innovation from the Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency as an impact-based weather forecast information service. To determine the accuracy of the IBFWS service information, it is necessary to validate the prediction results issued by IBFWS with the actual situation. By using spatial analysis methods, it is hoped that it can describe which areas are potentially affected by flooding and continued with the calculation of the contingency table so that the accuracy value of IBFWS is obtained in predicting areas potentially affected by flooding in South Kalimantan. IBFWS validation results in predicting areas potentially affected by flooding in South Kalimantan during the rainy season range between 0.85 – 1.00 which mean 85% - 100% the IBFWS prediction results are correct, during the transition season in general is 0.77 which mean 77% the IBFWS prediction results are correct, and during the dry season it ranges between 0.92 – 1.00 which mean 92% - 100% the IBFWS prediction results are correct.

Application of the drilling mechanical properties of rock to determine confining pressure in shallow geological formations

Confining pressure is an essential factor to consider in geological disasters in geothermal reservoirs and deep geological formations. Assessing the confining pressure holds practical importance, particularly in mitigating high-risk disasters associated with resource production. This study focuses on the development of a theoretical model for the mechanical properties of drilled rocks, specifically considering the impact of elevated confining pressure during the drilling process. Digital drilling experiments with different confining pressures are carried out to investigate the effect of confining pressure on the drilling mechanical properties of rock. A new method for identifying confining pressure and strength parameters using digital drilling is proposed. A comparison between the predicted confining pressure and the measured confining pressure is conducted to verify the accuracy of the model. The results show that the cutting force and the normal thrust at the cutting point increase with an increase in confining pressure. The drilling parameters (the bit rake angle a, the contact friction angle θ, the friction angle of rock φ, the cohesion of rock c, the effective stress generated by the drill torque St, the effective stress generated by the thrust along the normal axis Sn.) also increase gradually as confining pressure increases. Digital drilling technology offers shorter testing cycles and lower costs in comparison to traditional confining pressure testing techniques such as stress relief and hydraulic fracturing. The predicted confining pressure is consistent with the actual value. In summary, the method of determining confining pressure based on digital drilling has practical engineering significance.

The Sub-Criteria for Evacuation-Based Pedestrian Route Design Parameters

Indonesia, surrounded by three major tectonic plates—the Indo-Australian plate, the Pacific plate, and the Eurasian plate—faces a relatively high disaster risk. The city of Padang in West Sumatra, located on the western side of Sumatra Island and in proximity to tectonic plates, is particularly susceptible to earthquakes and tsunamis. To mitigate disaster risk, Padang requires evacuation-focused road infrastructure, including pedestrian paths. This study aims to assess the validity of sub-criteria parameters for creating pedestrian evacuation routes in Padang. It employs quantitative descriptive research methods, utilizing Aiken's V and Cronbach Alpha. The study involved distributing validation forms to five experts, comprising two Civil Engineering lecturers and three members of Padang City's BPBD (Regional Disaster Management Agency) specializing in Planning and Preparedness. The participants' responses, recorded through the forms, served as data for analyzing and identifying sub-criteria for evacuation-oriented pedestrian route design parameters. The study's findings reveal that one sub-criteria—Safety Fence from the Amenities parameter with a value of V = 0.7—is invalid.

The Impact of Economic Recovery Budget and Innovative Disaster Financing Schemes on Indonesia's Sustainability of Disaster-Affected Businesses

This study investigates the impact of implementing an economic recovery budget and innovative disaster financing schemes on Indonesia's disaster-affected businesses' sustainability. Indonesia is one of the countries that has many areas with high risk of natural disasters. Business resilience is crucial so that business institutions can immediately recover after a disaster; some efforts that can be made include the availability of an adequate economic recovery budget and innovative disaster impact financing schemes to adjust to the needs of disaster-affected businesses so that disaster-affected businesses recover quickly. This research was designed using quantitative analysis with a survey through a questionnaire. This study involved 180 MSE actors with sampling techniques using probability sampling. Data analysis was done using multiple linear regression analysis with the help of IBM Statistical software SPSS. The results found that the economic recovery budget significantly affects the sustainability of disaster-affected businesses in Indonesia. Then, the Innovative Disaster Financing Scheme significantly affects the sustainability of disaster-affected businesses in Indonesia. In addition, this study also found that the Innovative Disaster Financing scheme has the greatest effect on the sustainability of disaster-affected businesses in Indonesia. In conclusion, this study successfully investigated the impact of implementing the economic recovery budget and the effect of the innovative disaster financing scheme, which is 18.8 percent, which can contribute to increasing the sustainability of disaster-affected businesses in Indonesia.

Disaster risk assessment of educational infrastructure in mountain geographies using PROMETHEE-II

This study delves into the crucial realm of disaster risk assessment pertaining to educational infrastructure in mountain geographies, employing the PROMETHEE-II (Preference Ranking Organization Method for Enrichment Evaluations) technique. The study was carried out in Central Kashmir which is susceptible to various hazards, making the assessment of risks to educational facilities imperative for ensuring the safety and resilience of these crucial establishments. The AHP technique was used to assess the seismic, flood and landslide vulnerabilities of the sample institutions in the study area. The vulnerabilities were then treated against the preparedness levels using the PROMETHEE-II model. The findings reveal that out of 620 sample institutions, about 215 institutions are having high disaster risk and only about 60 sample institutions fall in low-risk category. Through the application of this method, this research aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of the vulnerabilities and potential risks faced by educational infrastructure in mountainous areas. The outcomes of the study will contribute significantly to enhancing disaster preparedness, mitigation strategies, and resource allocation for safeguarding educational institutions in these challenging terrains.

Utilization of Remote Sensing and Geographic Information System to Identify Buffer Zones Area at Plumpang Fuel Depot

Utilization of Remote Sensing and Geographic Information System to Identify Buffer Zones Area at Plumpang Fuel Depot

The Analysis of Natural Disaster Risk Impact on Labor Market Outcomes: Does It Lead to Middle-Class Workers Decrease?

Indonesia, as a country that is progressing towards an upper middle-income country, is facing a high incidence of disasters. Understanding how disasters impact living standards is still relatively difficult due to the lack of relevant studies in the literature. Therefore, the study aims to analyze the likelihood of individuals who were in areas with a high risk of disaster becoming middle-class workers. In this study, the incidence of disasters is represented by the disaster risk index, which comprises three components, namely the hazard, vulnerability, and capacity components in each province and regency/city based on the definition carried out by the National Disaster Management Agency (BNPB). By using logistics methods, this study found that individuals living in areas with a high risk of disaster tend to have a lower chance of becoming middle-class workers. In overcoming the labor market challenges faced by regions with high disaster risk, careful policy steps are needed that focus on strengthening capacity and reducing the risk of high investment costs. Enhancing disaster-resistant infrastructure and community networks as well as improving access to social protection services and promoting economic recovery are priorities.

Disaster risk assessment based on the community’s vulnerability, capacity, and responses in facing an earthquake in the Special Region of Yogyakarta, Indonesia

Bantul is one of the regencies in the Special Region of Yogyakarta (DIY) that are prone to earthquakes. In 2006, Yogyakarta was hit by a tectonic earthquake with a magnitude of 5.9 on the Richter scale, resulting in a death toll of 6,234 people, with 1,754 severely injured (e.g., spinal injuries) and in need of paraplegia rehabilitation. The high number of casualties indicates a high disaster risk, which means high disaster vulnerability and low disaster management capacity. The research aims to assess disaster risks based on the community’s vulnerability and capacity in facing the 2006 earthquake disaster in DIY. This study uses a mixed method, consisting of a survey with 44 disaster victims suffering from injuries that result in disabilities (paraplegia) and in-depth interviews with ten family members of the victims. The results show that disaster vulnerability will likely result in a physical risk, i.e., disaster injuries that leave the victims with paraplegia. Such vulnerability is caused by the community’s low capacity and poor response to disasters, including the 2006 earthquake. Another physical risk is the collapsing houses, which lead to economic risk as the community suffers losses of between 30 and 91 million rupiah. Meanwhile, the social risk is a change in the status of the victims from people without disabilities to people with disabilities. That said, social relations increase because the disaster victims with paraplegia have become active members of an organization.

The implementation of disaster preparedness training integration model based on Public Health Nursing (ILATGANA-PHN) to increase community capacity in natural disaster-prone areas

Indonesia is at high risk of disasters. Therefore, nursing is expected to play a role in disaster risk reductions in communities. This study aimed to implement the Disaster Preparedness Training Integration Model based on Public Health Nursing (ILATGANA-PHN) to increase the Capacity of community in natural disaster-prone areas by assessing the preparedness level of families and communities in disaster-prone areas. The research method was developed in two stages, including the model preparation stage and the model implementation stage. This research was in the 2nd stage, namely the model impelementation stage. The research design, at the model implementation stage, used the one-sample pre-post test without control group design. The respondents were assessed before and after the ILATGANA-PHN training intervention. The sample size was calculated using the sample size calculation formula for the experimental research design without controls. The samples of the study were 78 people. The result of the research described the ILATGANA-PHN training concepts, including the instrument, curriculum, process, module, and maintenance patterns for the training process. The intervention had a significant effect on increasing the independent preparedness of the people in Kendeng Community, Sugih Mukti Village (ƿ 0.000 ≤ 0.005) in terms of four preparedness parameters, namely knowledge and attitudes about disasters (KA), disaster preparedness plans (PE), disaster warnings (WS), and resource mobilization community (RMC). Nurses have the opportunity to take responsibilities for empowering the community capacity in the disaster area through the implementation of ILATGANA-PHN training. The integrated training model for disaster preparedness based on Public Health Nursing (ILATGANA-PHN) is effective in increasing the community capacity, especially in disaster managements, in disaster-prone areas.

Kajian Yuridis atas Ketentuan Darurat Bencana dalam Konstitusi Sebagai Jaminan Hak Asasi Manusia Korban Bencana

Indonesia faces a high risk of disasters, which require community involvement and participation in disaster management. The state cannot handle disasters without the community's help, and the research aims to examine the disaster emergency provisions in the 1945 Constitution to guarantee the human rights of disaster victims. This normative legal research found that emergency provisions are regulated in Article 12 and Article 22, granting the President emergency power. However, the 1945 Constitution does not specifically focus on the rights of communities affected by disasters or regulate the principles the government or president must adhere to in limiting or reducing constitutional rights during a disaster. Therefore, it is necessary to amend articles to include provisions that focus on the rights of people affected by disasters and the terms and conditions for limiting or reducing constitutional rights of citizens.

Vulnerability, Preparedness, and Previous Experience of Disasters Among the Population of a High Hazard Region-Rural Southern Sindh, Pakistan.

A cross-sectional, mixed-method study was conducted in Badin, a rural area in southern Sindh, which is considered a high-risk disaster zone, to assess the vulnerability, preparedness, and disaster experiences of the coastal population. A multistage sampling technique was employed to select the villages, study area, and 3 distinct populations (I, II, and III). Family heads of households were recruited for population I, village heads for population II, and community support group leaders from selected clusters for population III. The survey was conducted through face-to-face interviews. The results revealed that the population of rural southern Sindh, Pakistan, is highly vulnerable to disasters and exhibits lower levels of preparedness. The statistics about the vulnerable population may prove helpful in designing policies targeting specific groups to mitigate hazards in the future.