High-resolution Simulations Research Articles

Populating the Milky Way

Context. Stellar populations and their distribution differ widely across the Galaxy, which is likely to affect planet demographics. Our local neighbourhood is dominated by young, metal-rich stars in the galactic thin disc, while the stellar halo and galactic bulge host a large fraction of older, metal-poor stars. Aims. We study the impact of these variations on planet populations in different regions of the Galaxy by combining a high-resolution galaxy formation simulation with state-of-the-art planet population synthesis models. Methods. We constructed a population model to estimate occurrence rates of different planet types, based on the New Generation Planet Population Synthesis (NGPPS). We applied this model to a simulated Milky Way (MW) analogue in the HESTIA galaxy formation simulation. We studied the planet occurrence rate in the metal-rich regions of the inner Galaxy, namely, in the galactic bulge and thin disc. We compared these result with the frequencies in the more distant, metal-poor region such as the thick disc and stellar halo. Results. We find that the planet demographics in the central, metal-rich regions of the MW analogue differ strongly from the planet populations in the more distant, metal-poor regions. The occurrence rate of giant planets (>300 M⊕) is 10–20 times larger in the thin disc compared to the thick disc, driven by the low amounts of solid material available for planet formation around metal-poor stars. Similarly, low-mass Earth-like planets around Sun-like stars are most abundant in the thick disc, being 1.5 times more frequent than in the thin disc. Moreover, low-mass planets are expected to be abundant throughout the galaxy, from the central regions to the outer halo, due to their formation processes being less dependent on stellar metallicity. The planet populations differ more strongly around Sun-like stars compared to dwarfs with masses 0.3–0.5 M⊙, caused by a weaker correlation between [Fe/H] metallicity and planet mass. However, it is important to note that the occurrence rates of low-mass planets are still uncertain, making our findings strongly model-dependent. Massive planets are more comprehensively understood and our findings are more robust. Nonetheless, other systematic effects have the potential to alter the giant planet population that we have not addressed in this study. We discuss some of these limitations and offer further directions for future research.

A too-many dwarf satellite galaxies problem in the MATLAS low-to-moderate density fields

Context. Dwarf galaxy abundances can serve as discernment tests for models of structure formation. Previous small-scale tensions between observations and dark matter-only cosmological simulations may have been resolved with the inclusion of baryonic processes; however, these successes have been largely concentrated on the Local Group dwarfs the feedback models were initially calibrated on. Aims. We investigate whether the ΛCDM model can reliably reproduce dwarf abundances in the MATLAS low-to-moderate density fields that are centred upon early-type host galaxies beyond the Local Volume. Methods. We carried out mock observations of MATLAS-like fields with the high-resolution hydrodynamic simulation IllustrisTNG-50. We used matching selection criteria and compared the properties of dwarfs contained within them with their MATLAS analogues. Results. Although simulated MATLAS-like dwarfs demonstrate photometric properties that are consistent with the observed galaxy population and follow the same scaling relations, TNG50 underestimates the number of dwarf galaxies in isolated MATLAS fields at the 6σ level. This significance maintained within crowded fields containing more than a single bright host. Our 55 − 62% estimate of the fraction of background galaxies is in agreement with estimates by MATLAS, but is wholly insufficient to alleviate this discrepancy in dwarf abundances. Any incompleteness in the observed fields further exacerbates this tension. Conclusions. We identified a “too-many-satellites” problem in ΛCDM, emphasising the need for the continued testing and refining of current models of galaxy formation in environments beyond the Local Group.

THE THREE HUNDRED: Contrasting cluster galaxy density in hydrodynamical and dark matter simulations

Cluster number counts at visible and IR wavelengths will be a key cosmological probe in the next decade thanks to the Euclid satellite mission. For this purpose, the performance of cluster detection algorithms, which at these wavelengths are sensitive to the spatial distributions of the cluster galaxy members and their luminosity functions, need to be accurately characterized. Using THE THREE HUNDRED hydrodynamical and dark-matter-only simulations, we studied a complete sample of massive clusters beyond 7 (5) × 1014 M⊙ at redshift 0 (1) on a (1.48 Gpc)3 volume. We find that the mass resolution of the current hydrodynamical simulations (1.5 × 109 M⊙) is not enough to characterize the luminosity function of the sample in the perspective of Euclid data. Nevertheless, these simulations are still useful to characterize the spatial distribution of the cluster substructures assuming a common relative mass threshold for the different flavours and resolutions. By comparing with the dark-matter-only version of these simulations, we demonstrate that baryonic physics preserves significantly low-mass subhalos (galaxies), as has also been observed in previous studies with less statistics. Furthermore, by comparing the hydro simulations with higher resolution dark-matter-only simulations of the same objects and taking the same limit in subhalo mass, we find galaxy density profiles that are significantly more cuspy towards the centre of the clusters, where the low-mass substructures tend to concentrate. We conclude that using a dark-matter-only simulation may lead to some biases on the spatial distribution and density of galaxy cluster members. Based on the preliminary analysis of few high-resolution hydro simulations we conclude that a mass resolution of 1.8 × 108h−1 M⊙ will be needed for THE THREE HUNDRED simulations to approach the expected magnitude limits for the Euclid survey. These simulations are currently under way.

Can mesoscale models capture the effect from cluster wakes offshore?

Long wakes from offshore wind turbine clusters can extend tens of kilometers downstream, affecting the wind resource of a large area. Given the ability of mesoscale numerical weather prediction models to capture important atmospheric phenomena and mechanisms relevant to wake evolution, they are often used to simulate wakes behind large wind turbine clusters and their impact over a wider region. Yet, uncertainty persists regarding the accuracy of representing cluster wakes via mesoscale models and their wind turbine parameterizations. Here, we evaluate the accuracy of the Fitch wind farm parameterization in the Weather Research and Forecasting model in capturing cluster-wake effects using two different options to represent turbulent mixing in the planetary boundary layer. To this end, we compare operational data from an offshore wind farm in the North Sea that is fully or partially waked by an upstream array against high-resolution mesoscale simulations. In general, we find that mesoscale models accurately represent the effect of cluster wakes on front-row turbines of a downstream wind farm. However, the same models may not accurately capture cluster-wake effects on an entire downstream wind farm, due to misrepresenting internal-wake effects.

A high-resolution numerical investigation of unsteady wake vortices for coaxial rotors in hover

High-resolution numerical simulations for wake vortical flows have long been a challenge in rotor aerodynamics. A novel spectrum-optimized sixth-order Weighted Essentially Non-Oscillatory (WENO) scheme is proposed to discretize inviscid fluxes on moving overset grids, and the Improved Delayed Detached Eddy Simulation (IDDES) is employed to resolve turbulent vortices. The integration of these methods facilitates a comprehensive numerical investigation into the unsteady vortical flows over coaxial rotors in hover. The results highlight the substantial improvement in numerical resolution, in terms of both spatial structure and temporal evolution of unsteady multiscale wake vortices. Coaxial rotors in hover manifest three primary scales of wake vortex structures: (A) the helical evolution of primary blade tip vortices and the periodic occurrence of strong Blade-Vortex Interactions (BVI); (B) the continuous shedding of small-scale horseshoe-shaped vortices from the trailing edges of rotor blades, forming the vortex sheets; (C) the emergence of small-scale secondary vortex braids induced by interactions between rotor tip vortices and the vortex sheets. These vortex structures and their interactions cause high-frequency oscillations in rotor disk loads and induce unsteady perturbations in the local flow field. Interactions among these primary vortices, coupled with the generation of secondary vortices, result in the dissipation, distortion, and breakup of the rotor tip vortices, ultimately forming a vortex soup. Notably, a substantial quantity of seemingly weak small-scale secondary vortex braids significantly contribute to energy dissipation during the evolution of wake vortices for coaxial rotors in hover.

A Conceptual Model for the Development of Tornadoes in the Complex Orography of the Po Valley

Abstract The Po Valley in northern Italy is a hotspot for tornadoes in Europe in spite of being surrounded by two mountain ridges: the Alps in the north and the Apennines in the southwest. The research focuses on the case study of 19 September 2021, when seven tornadoes (four of them rated as F2) developed in the Po Valley in a few hours. The event was analyzed using observations and numerical simulations with the convection-permitting Modello Locale in Hybrid Coordinates (MOLOCH) model. Observations show that during the event in the Po Valley, there were two surface boundaries that created a triple point: an outflow boundary generated by convection triggered in the Alpine foothills and a dryline generated by downslope winds from the Apennines, while warm and moist air advected westward from the Adriatic Sea east (ahead) of the boundaries. Tornadoes developed about 20 km northeast of the triple point. Numerical simulations with 500-m grid spacing suggest that the development of supercells and drylines in the Po Valley was sensitive to the elevation of the Apennines. Simulated vertical profiles show that the best combination of instability and wind shear for the development of tornadoes was attained within a narrow area located ahead of the dryline. A conceptual model for the development of tornadoes in the Po Valley is proposed, and the differences between tornado environments over a flat terrain and over a region with complex terrain are discussed. Significance Statement The Po Valley is a highly populated area where some of the most violent tornadoes in Europe have developed. We investigated a tornado outbreak that occurred on 19 September 2021 in this region, in order to identify its main environmental characteristics. High-resolution numerical simulations revealed that values of instability and wind shear were compatible with the development of several tornadoes only in a narrow area close to the intersection of two surface boundaries (a triple point). Moreover, the atmospheric environment during the tornado outbreak was strongly influenced by the presence of mountain ridges surrounding the plain. We have summarized our results in a conceptual model that can potentially be used for forecasting applications.

The impact of aragonite saturation variability on shelled pteropods: An attribution study in the California Current System.

Observations from the California Current System (CalCS) indicate that the long-term trend in ocean acidification (OA) and the naturally occurring corrosive conditions for the CaCO3 mineral aragonite (saturation state Ω < 1) have a damaging effect on shelled pteropods, a keystone group of calcifying organisms in the CalCS. Concern is heightened by recent findings suggesting that shell formation and developmental progress are already impacted when Ω falls below 1.5. Here, we quantify the impact of low Ω conditions on pteropods using an individual-based model (IBM) with life-stage-specific mortality, growth, and behavior in a high-resolution regional hindcast simulation of the CalCS between 1984 and 2019. Special attention is paid to attributing this impact to different processes that lead to such low Ω conditions, namely natural variability, long-term trend, and extreme events. We find that much of the observed damage in the CalCS, and specifically >70% of the shell CaCO3 loss, is due to the pteropods' exposure to naturally occurring low Ω conditions as a result of their diel vertical migration (DVM). Over the hindcast period, their exposure to damaging waters (Ω < 1.5) increases from 9% to 49%, doubling their shell CaCO3 loss, and increasing their mortality by ~40%. Most of this increased exposure is due to the shoaling of low Ω waters driven by the long-term trend in OA. Extreme OA events amplify this increase by ~40%. Our approach can quantify the health of pteropod populations under shifting environmental conditions, and attribute changes in fitness or population structure to changes in the stressor landscape across hierarchical time scales.

Analysis of high-resolution convection-permitting regional climate simulations with respect to the impact of spatial resolution on simulated wind climate

In this study, climate model simulations are evaluated with regard to the wind energy resource in Germany. Since accurate determination of local wind requires a high resolution, we consider simulations of Convection Permitting Regional Climate Models (CP-RCMs) with 3km resolution. We analysed RCP8.5 scenario simulations carried out i) within the EUCP project using the RCM REMO in convection permitting mode for the Central European domain (CEU-3) and ii) within the CORDEX FPS-Convection project that provides a model ensemble of CP-RCMs for the Pan-Alpine region (ALP-3). The models are forced with RCMs at intermediate resolution which are by itself driven with General Circulation Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project – Phase 5 (CMIP5) for the two time slices 1996-2005 (’historical’) and 2041-2050 (‘near-future’). Wind energy yield is calculated at 100 m height by using 3 MW wind turbine parameters and a height correction method. The results are compared with observations from four different met-masts at different locations. The RCMs at intermediate resolution are closer to observations than the CP-RCM REMO while the ensemble of CORDEX FPS-Convection reveals that the difference between model and observations is highly model dependent. A significant climate trend in the comparison of ’historical’ to ‘near future’ cannot be seen for Germany in both the EUCP and CORDEX FPS-Convection simulations.

Sustained super-Eddington accretion in high-redshift quasars

Observations of z ≳ 6 quasars provide information on the early evolution of the most massive black holes (MBHs) and galaxies. Current observations, able to trace both gas and stellar properties, reveal a population of MBHs that is significantly more massive than expected from the local MBH-stellar mass relation. The population lies on, but mostly above, the relation observed in the nearby Universe. This suggests that these objects grew very rapidly. To explain their presence when the Universe was less than 1 Gyr old and to assess the physical conditions for their rapid growth, we explored whether episodes of accretion above the Eddington limit can occur across cosmic epochs. By employing state-of-the-art high-resolution cosmological zoom-in simulations of a z ∼ 7 quasar, where different accretion regimes are included consistently, together with their associated radiative and kinetic feedback, we show that super-Eddington phases can be sustained for relatively long timescales (tens of millions of years). This allows the MBH to rapidly grow by up to three orders of magnitude, depending on the strength of the kinetic feedback. We also show by means of a semianalytic calculation that the MBH spin remains moderate and does not take on extremely high values during the super-Eddington phases. This results in a lower feedback efficiency, which may allow the rapid growth required to explain over-massive high-redshift MBHs.

Radar Signatures and Surface Observations of Elevated Convection Associated with Damaging Surface Winds

Abstract Identifying radar signatures indicative of damaging surface winds produced by convection remains a challenge for operational meteorologists, especially within environments characterized by strong low-level static stability and convection for which inflow is presumably entirely above the planetary boundary layer. Numerical model simulations suggest the most prevalent method through which elevated convection generates damaging surface winds is via “up–down” trajectories, where a near-surface stable layer is dynamically lifted and then dropped with little to no connection to momentum associated with the elevated convection itself. Recently, a number of unique convective episodes during which damaging surface winds were produced by apparently elevated convection coincident with mesoscale gravity waves were identified and cataloged for study. A novel radar signature indicative of damaging surface winds produced by elevated convection is introduced through six representative cases. One case is then explored further via a high-resolution model simulation and related to the conceptual model of up–down trajectories. Understanding the processes responsible for, and radar signature indicative of, damaging surface winds produced by gravity wave coincident convection will help operational forecasters identify and ultimately warn for a previously underappreciated phenomenon that poses a threat to lives and property. Significance Statement We identified unique radar and observational signatures of thunderstorms that produce damaging surface winds through a recently discovered mechanism. The radar and observational signatures can be used to issue warnings to protect lives and property in situations where damaging winds were previously unexpected. Key observational signatures include associated increases in surface pressure, sustained wind, and wind gust magnitudes, as well as little to no change or an increase in surface temperature. In addition, base radar data exhibit a divergence signature, including in regions of little or no detectable precipitation. Additional study is needed to answer why some atmospheric environments are supportive of the unique damaging-wind-producing mechanism while others are not.

Prediction of three-dimensional flow field inside realistic fibrous filter obtained from x-ray computed tomography images using deep convolutional neural networks

Deep-learning models garnered considerable attention in the field of fluid mechanics for physics discovery and approximation-model generation. This study aims to develop an approximation model to predict the flow field inside realistic fibrous filters based on an image-to-image approach to replace three-dimensional (3D) computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations, which are computationally expensive and difficult to apply to realistic fibrous filters. A data-driven framework is proposed using deep convolutional neural networks (CNNs) to provide a per-pixel prediction of the flow field. The model inputs are two-dimensional x-ray computed tomography images, whereas the outputs are the 3D distributions of the velocity vectors and pressure. High-resolution 3D CFD simulations are performed to create a database to train and test the CNN model. The model is applied to surgical and N95 face masks. The relative error of the CNN model over the test dataset is approximately 10% in regions with high velocity and pressure, and the model can provide a detailed high-resolution prediction of the flow field with a speedup of about three orders of magnitudes. A strict generalization test is conducted for completely unseen 3D segments with complex microstructures. The model generalizability still needs more improvements; however, the model can provide a low-resolution 3D flow field for those segments that can be used as the initial condition for CFD simulation to reduce the CFD computational time. This framework can be utilized for other types of filters and provides a basis for the design and optimization of fibrous filters.

The AGORA High-resolution Galaxy Simulations Comparison Project. IV. Halo and Galaxy Mass Assembly in a Cosmological Zoom-in Simulation at z ≤ 2

In this fourth paper from the AGORA Collaboration, we study the evolution down to redshift z = 2 and below of a set of cosmological zoom-in simulations of a Milky Way mass galaxy by eight of the leading hydrodynamic simulation codes. We also compare this CosmoRun suite of simulations with dark matter-only simulations by the same eight codes. We analyze general properties of the halo and galaxy at z = 4 and 3, and before the last major merger, focusing on the formation of well-defined rotationally supported disks, the mass–metallicity relation, the specific star formation rate, the gas metallicity gradients, and the nonaxisymmetric structures in the stellar disks. Codes generally converge well to the stellar-to-halo mass ratios predicted by semianalytic models at z ∼ 2. We see that almost all the hydro codes develop rotationally supported structures at low redshifts. Most agree within 0.5 dex with the observed mass–metallicity relation at high and intermediate redshifts, and reproduce the gas metallicity gradients obtained from analytical models and low-redshift observations. We confirm that the intercode differences in the halo assembly history reported in the first paper of the collaboration also exist in CosmoRun, making the code-to-code comparison more difficult. We show that such differences are mainly due to variations in code-dependent parameters that control the time stepping strategy of the gravity solver. We find that variations in the early stellar feedback can also result in differences in the timing of the low-redshift mergers. All the simulation data down to z = 2 and the auxiliary data will be made publicly available.

The Role of Surface Potential Vorticity in the Vertical Structure of Mesoscale Eddies in Wind-Driven Ocean Circulations

Abstract The vertical structure of ocean eddies is generally surface-intensified, commonly attributed to the dominant baroclinic modes arising from the boundary conditions (BCs). Conventional BC considerations mostly focus on either flat- or rough-bottom conditions. The impact of surface buoyancy anomalies—often represented by surface potential vorticity (PV) anomalies—has not been fully explored. Here, we study the role of the surface PV in setting the vertical distribution of eddy kinetic energy (EKE) in an idealized adiabatic ocean model driven by wind stress. The simulated EKE profile in the extratropical ocean tends to peak at the surface and have an e-folding depth typically smaller than half of the ocean depth. This vertical structure can be reasonably represented by a single surface quasigeostrophic (SQG) mode at the energy-containing scale resulting from the large-scale PV structure. Due to isopycnal outcropping and interior PV homogenization, the surface meridional PV gradient is substantially stronger than the interior PV gradient, yielding surface-trapped baroclinically unstable modes with horizontal scales comparable to or smaller than the deformation radius. These surface-trapped eddies then grow in size both horizontally and vertically through an inverse energy cascade up to the energy-containing scale, which dominates the vertical distribution of EKE. As for smaller horizontal scales, the EKE distribution decays faster with depth. Guided by this interpretation, an SQG-based scale-aware parameterization of the EKE profile is proposed. Preliminary offline diagnosis of a high-resolution simulation shows the proposed scheme successfully reproducing the dependence of the vertical structure of EKE on the horizontal grid resolution.

Resolution Dependence of Extreme Wind Speed Projections in the Great Lakes Region

Abstract The effect of anthropogenic climate change on extreme near-surface wind speeds is uncertain. Observed trends are weak and difficult to disentangle from internal variability, and model projections disagree on the sign and magnitude of trends. Standard coarse-resolution climate models represent the fine structures of relevant physical phenomena such as extratropical cyclones (ETCs), upper-level jet streaks, surface energy fluxes, and land surface variability less skillfully than their high-resolution counterparts. Here, we use simulations with the NCAR Community Earth System Model with both uniform (110 km) resolution and the variable-resolution configuration (VR-CESM-SONT, from 110 to 7 km) to study the effect of refined spatial resolution on projections of extreme strong and weak wind speeds in the Great Lakes region under end-of-century RCP8.5 forcing. The variable-resolution configuration projects strengthening of strong-wind events in the refined region with the opposite occurring in the uniform-resolution simulation. The two configurations provide consistent changes to synoptic-scale circulations associated with high-wind events. However, only the variable-resolution configuration projects weaker static stability, enhanced turbulent vertical mixing, and consequentially enhanced surface wind speeds because boundary layer dynamics are better captured in the refined region. Both models project increased frequency of extreme weak winds, though only VR-CESM-SONT resolves the cold-season inversions and summertime high temperatures associated with stagnant wind events. The identifiable mechanism of the changes to strong winds in VR-CESM-SONT provides confidence in its projections and demonstrates the value of enhanced spatial resolution for the study of extreme winds under climate change. Significance Statement In this study, we compare climate change projections of high and low extreme wind speeds in the Great Lakes region between a standard coarse-resolution simulation and a high-resolution simulation performed using the same climate model. The fine-resolution simulation projects strengthening high wind speeds, opposite to the coarse-resolution simulation. Both project increasing frequency of extreme weak winds, but the human-health-related impacts of stagnant winds are only captured at fine resolution. The changes in the coarse-resolution simulation are explained by changes to large-scale circulation, while the fine-resolution changes are linked to local processes the coarse model does not resolve. This helps explain the diverging projections of strong winds and gives greater credibility to the fine-resolution simulation.

Toward Cosmological Simulations of the Magnetized Intracluster Medium with Resolved Coulomb Collision Scale

We present the first results of one extremely high-resolution, nonradiative magnetohydrodynamical cosmological zoom-in simulation of a massive cluster with a virial mass of M vir = 2.0 × 1015 solar masses. We adopt a mass resolution of 4 × 105 M ⊙ with a maximum spatial resolution of around 250 pc in the central regions of the cluster. We follow the detailed amplification process in a resolved small-scale turbulent dynamo in the intracluster medium (ICM) with strong exponential growth until redshift 4, after which the field grows weakly in the adiabatic compression limit until redshift 2. The energy in the field is slightly reduced as the system approaches redshift zero in agreement with adiabatic decompression. The field structure is highly turbulent in the center and shows field reversals on a length scale of a few tens of kiloparsecs and an anticorrelation between the radial and angular field components in the central region that is ordered by small-scale turbulent dynamo action. The large-scale field on megaparsec scales is almost isotropic, indicating that the structure formation process in massive galaxy cluster formation suppresses any memory of both the initial field configuration and the amplified morphology via the turbulent dynamo. We demonstrate that extremely high-resolution simulations of the magnetized ICM are within reach that can simultaneously resolve the small-scale magnetic field structure, which is of major importance for the injection of and transport of cosmic rays in the ICM. This work is a major cornerstone for follow-up studies with an on-the-fly treatment of cosmic rays to model in detail electron-synchrotron and gamma-ray emissions.

Parallel SnowModel (v1.0): a parallel implementation of a distributed snow-evolution modeling system (SnowModel)

Abstract. SnowModel, a spatially distributed snow-evolution modeling system, was parallelized using Coarray Fortran for high-performance computing architectures to allow high-resolution (1 m to hundreds of meters) simulations over large regional- to continental-scale domains. In the parallel algorithm, the model domain was split into smaller rectangular sub-domains that are distributed over multiple processor cores using one-dimensional decomposition. All the memory allocations from the original code were reduced to the size of the local sub-domains, allowing each core to perform fewer computations and requiring less memory for each process. Most of the subroutines in SnowModel were simple to parallelize; however, there were certain physical processes, including blowing snow redistribution and components within the solar radiation and wind models, that required non-trivial parallelization using halo-exchange patterns. To validate the parallel algorithm and assess parallel scaling characteristics, high-resolution (100 m grid) simulations were performed over several western United States domains and over the contiguous United States (CONUS) for a year. The CONUS scaling experiment had approximately 70 % parallel efficiency; runtime decreased by a factor of 1.9 running on 1800 cores relative to 648 cores (the minimum number of cores that could be used to run such a large domain because of memory and time limitations). CONUS 100 m simulations were performed for 21 years (2000–2021) using 46 238 and 28 260 grid cells in the x and y dimensions, respectively. Each year was simulated using 1800 cores and took approximately 5 h to run.

Dynamics of Star Cluster Formation: Mergers in Gas-rich Environments

We perform high-resolution simulations of forming star clusters as they merge inside giant molecular clouds (GMCs) using hydrodynamics coupled to N-body dynamics to simultaneously model both the gas and stars. We zoom in to previously run GMC simulations and resolve clusters into their stellar and gas components while including the surrounding GMC environment. We find that GMC gas is important in facilitating the growth of clusters in their embedded phase by promoting cluster mergers. Mergers induce asymmetric expansion of the stellar component of the clusters in our simulations. As well, mergers induce angular momentum in the clusters’ stellar and gas components. We find that mergers can lead to an increase in the amount of dense gas present in clusters if a background gas distribution is present. We predict that this can lead to new star formation that can change the overall distribution of cluster stars in velocity space. Our results suggest that subcluster mergers in the presence of background gas can imprint dynamical signatures that can be used to constrain cluster formation histories.

Correcting for the overabundance of low-mass quiescent galaxies in semi-analytic models

ABSTRACT We compare the l-galaxies semi-analytic model to deep observational data from the UKIDSS Ultra Deep Survey (UDS) across the redshift range 0.5 &amp;lt; z &amp;lt; 3. We find that the overabundance of low-mass, passive galaxies at high redshifts in the model can be attributed solely to the properties of ‘orphan’ galaxies, i.e. satellite galaxies where the simulation has lost track of the host dark matter sub-halo. We implement a simple model that boosts the star formation rates in orphan galaxies by matching them to non-orphaned satellite galaxies at a similar evolutionary stage. This straightforward change largely addresses the discrepancy in the low-mass passive fraction across all redshifts. We find that the orphan problem is somewhat alleviated by higher resolution simulations, but the preservation of a larger gas reservoir in orphans is still required to produce a better fit to the observed space density of low-mass passive galaxies. Our findings are also robust to the precise definition of the passive galaxy population. In general, considering the vastly different prescriptions used for orphans in semi-analytic models, we recommend that they are analysed separately from the resolved satellite galaxy population, particularly with JWST observations reigniting interest in the low-mass regime in which they dominate.

High Spatial and Temporal Resolution Simulations of Methane Column Loadings Due to Routine Emissions and Emission Events in Oil and Gas Regions

High Spatial and Temporal Resolution Simulations of Methane Column Loadings Due to Routine Emissions and Emission Events in Oil and Gas Regions

Future Projections of Precipitation Extremes for Greece Based on an Ensemble of High-Resolution Regional Climate Model Simulations

An assessment of the projected changes in precipitation extremes for the 21st century is presented here for Greece and its individual administrative regions. The analysis relies on an ensemble of high-resolution Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations following various Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). The simulated changes in future annual total precipitation (PRTOT) under the examined scenarios are generally negative but statistically non-robust, except towards the end of the century (2071–2100) over high-altitude mountainous regions in Western Greece, Peloponnese, and Crete under RCP8.5. The pattern of change in the number of very heavy precipitation days (R20) is linked to the respective pattern of the PRTOT change with a statistically robust decrease of up to −5 days per year only over parts of the high-altitude mountainous regions in Western Greece, Peloponnese, and Crete for 2071–2100 under RCP8.5. Contrasting the future tendency for decrease in total precipitation and R20, the changes in the intensity of precipitation extremes show a tendency for intensification. However, these change patterns are non-robust for all periods and scenarios. Statistical significance is indicated for the highest 1-day precipitation amount in a year (Rx1day) for the administrative regions of Thessaly, Central Greece, Ionian Islands, and North Aegean under RCP8.5 in 2071–2100. The changes in the contribution of the wettest day per year to the annual total precipitation (RxTratio) are mainly positive but non-robust for most of Greece and all scenarios in the period 2021–2050, becoming more positive and robust in 2071–2100 for RCP8.5. This work highlights the necessity of taking into consideration high-resolution multi-model RCM estimates in future precipitation extremes with various scenarios, for assessing their potential impact on flood episodes and the strategic planning of structure resilience at national and regional level under the anticipated human-induced future climate change.