High-resolution Atmospheric Model Research Articles

Climatic Effects of Spring Mesoscale Oceanic Eddies in the North Pacific: A Regional Modeling Study

A high-resolution atmospheric model of the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) is used to investigate the climatic effects of mesoscale oceanic eddies (OEs) in the North Pacific (NPac) in spring and the respective effects of OEs in the northern NPac associated with the Kuroshio Extension (KE) and of OEs in the southern NPac related to the subtropical countercurrent. Results show that mesoscale OEs in the NPac can strengthen the upper-level ridge (trough) in the central (eastern) subtropical NPac, together with markedly weakened (strengthened) westerly winds to its south. The mesoscale OEs in the whole NPac act to weaken the upper-level storm track and strengthen lower-level storm activities in the NPac. However, atmospheric responses to the northern and southern NPac OEs are more prominent. The northern NPac OEs can induce tropospheric barotropic responses with a tripole geopotential height (GPH) anomaly pattern to the north of 30° N, while the OEs in both the northern and southern NPac can enhance the upper-level ridge (trough) in the central (eastern) subtropical NPac. Additionally, the northern NPac OEs can shrink the lower-level subtropical high and weaken the easterly trade winds at the low latitudes, while the southern NPac OEs result in a southward shift of the lower-level subtropical high and an eastward shift of the upper-level westerly jet stream. The southern and northern NPac OEs have similar effects on the storm track, leading to an enhanced lower-level storm track over the KE via moistening the atmospheric boundary layer; and they can also exert significant remote influences on lower- and upper-level storm activities over the Northeast Pacific off the west coast of North America. When the intensities of OEs are doubled in the model, the spatial distribution of atmospheric responses is robust, with a larger and more significant magnitude. Additionally, although OEs are part of the mesoscale oceanic processes, the springtime OEs play an opposite role in mesoscale sea-surface temperature anomalies. These findings point to the potential of improving the forecasts of extratropical springtime storm systems and the projections of their responses to future climate change, by improving the representation of ocean eddy-atmosphere interaction in forecast and climate models.

An enhanced integrated approach to knowledgeable high-resolution environmental quality assessment

Sustaining urban environmental quality requires effective policy measures that integrate local monitoring and contextualized high-resolution modelling with actionable scenarios. Knowledgeable decision making in this field can nowadays be supported by an array of atmospheric models, but their transfer into an Integrated Urban hydrometeorological, climate and environmental Services (IUS) remains challenging. Methodological aspects that are beyond pure technicalities of the model-to-model coupling are still poorly explored. Modeling downscaling chains lack their most user-relevant link – urban-to-neighborhood scale observations and models. This study looks at a socio-environmental context of the high-resolution atmospheric modeling in the case study of the Arctic urban cluster of Apatity and Kirovsk, Russia. We demonstrate that atmospheric dynamics of the lowermost, turbulent air layers is highly localized during the most influential episodes of atmospheric pollution. Urban micro-climates create strong circulations (winds) that are sensitive to the local environmental context. As the small-scale turbulence dynamics is not spatially resolved in meteorological downscaling or statistical modeling, capturing this local context requires specialized turbulence-resolving (large-eddy simulation) models. Societal acceptance of the urban modeling could be increased in the IUS with horizontally integrated modeling driven by localized scenarios. This study presents an enhanced integrated approach, which incorporates a large-eddy simulation model PALM into meteorological downscaling chains of a climate model (EC-EARTH), a numerical weather prediction – atmospheric chemical transport model (ENVIRO-HIRLAM) and a regional-scale meteorological model (COSMO-CLM). We discuss how this approach could be further developed into an environmental component of a digital “smart city”.

Simulating major storm surge events in a complex coastal region

Climate change and increased coastal urbanization are causing low-lying coastlines to become increasingly susceptible to the threat of extreme water levels and coastal flooding. Robust decision-making on adaptation in the coastal zone, based on reliable ocean-modelling tools, is therefore crucially contingent on accurate assessments of current and future storm surge hazards. This accuracy relies considerably on the quality of the wind forcing used in the ocean models. In this paper, we use a high-resolution, regional 3D ocean model (HBM) covering the North Sea and Baltic Sea to simulate extreme water levels during three extreme storm surge events with different dynamics and patterns, in order to assess their impacts along Denmark’s coastlines, which are of varying levels of complexity. We demonstrate that the model is able to reproduce the observed extreme high-water levels accurately, indicating that the system is well suited for producing simulations of present and future projections of extreme storm surges with high resulting impacts and damage potentials. Additionally, we quantify the level at which acknowledged deficiencies in the otherwise most suitable atmospheric forcing data set influence the results of the storm surge simulations. We found that reducing the temporal resolution of the forcing data – that is, replacing two out of every six time stamps with linearly interpolated values – is preferable to using the original forcing data set when recurring noise is present in these time stamps. As a result, for given storm surge events, and depending on the stage reached in the storm’s evolution, mean absolute errors can be reduced by 4.5cm. This emphasizes the importance of considering such model fluctuations when coupling high-resolution atmosphere and ocean models.

Inhomogeneity of the surface air temperature record from Halley, Antarctica

AbstractCommencing in 1956, observations made at Halley Research Station, Antarctica provide one of the longest continuous series of near-surface temperature observations from the Antarctic continent. Since few other records of comparable length are available, the Halley record has been used extensively in studies of long-term Antarctic climate variability and change. The record does not, however, come from a single location but is a composite of observations from a sequence of seven stations, all situated on the Brunt Ice Shelf, that range from around 10 km to 50 km distance from the coast. Until now, it has generally been assumed that temperature data from all of these stations could be combined into a single composite record with no adjustment. Here, we examine this assumption of homogeneity. Application of a statistical change point algorithm to the composite record detects a sudden cooling associated with the move from Halley IV to Halley V station in 1992. We show that this temperature step is consistent with local temperature gradients measured by a network of automatic weather stations and with those simulated by a high-resolution atmospheric model. These temperature gradients are strongest in the coastal region and result from the onshore advection of maritime air. The detected inhomogeneity could account for the weak cooling trend seen in the uncorrected composite record. In future, studies that make use of the Halley record will need to account for its inhomogeneity.

Development of local-scale high-resolution atmospheric dispersion model using large-eddy simulation part 6: introduction of detailed dose calculation method

ABSTRACT We developed a LOcal-scale High-resolution atmospheric DIspersion Model using Large-Eddy Simulation (LOHDIM-LES) for the safety assessment of nuclear facilities and emergency responses to accidental or deliberate releases of radioactive materials. In parts 1–5 of this series, the basic performance was examined by comparing with wind tunnel or field experimental results on plume dispersion over various complex surface geometries under ideal and realistic atmospheric conditions. In this study, we introduced a dose calculation method that can simulate air dose rate distributions by considering shielding effects and inhomogeneous distribution of radioactive materials in the air and on the ground and building surfaces. First, we conducted LESs of radioactive plume dispersion and dry deposition in building array and investigated the basic performance of the dose calculation method by comparison with that of Monte-Carlo based three-dimensional radiation transport simulations by Particle and Heavy-Ion Transport code System (PHITS). Then, we compared the LOHDIM-LES results with actual air dose rate obtained from the monitoring posts in a nuclear facility. The observed data were reasonably simulated. Thus, we completed LOHDIM-LES, which can simulate plume dispersion, dry deposition, and air dose rates from complex distributions of radionuclides considering the influence of individual buildings under realistic meteorological conditions.

Monthly Modulations of ENSO Teleconnections: Implications for Potential Predictability in North America

AbstractUsing a high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model simulation of unprecedented ensemble size, we examine potential predictability of monthly anomalies under El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forcing and back-ground internal variability. This study reveals the pronounced month-to-month evolution of both the ENSO forcing signal and internal variability. Internal variance in upper-level geopotential height decreases (∼ 10%) over the North Pacific during El Niño as the westerly jet extends eastward, allowing forced signals to account for a greater fraction of the total variability, and leading to increased potential predictability. We identify February and March of El Niño years as the most predictable months using a signal-to-noise analysis. In contrast, December, a month typically included in teleconnection studies, shows little-to-no potential predictability. We show that the seasonal evolution of SST forcing and variability leads to significant signal-to-noise relationships that can be directly linked to both upper-level and surface variable predictability for a given month. The stark changes in forced response, internal variability, and thus signal-to-noise across an ENSO season indicate that subseasonal fields should be used to diagnose potential predictability over North America associated with ENSO teleconnections. Using surface air temperature and precipitation as examples, this study provides motivation to pursue ‘windows of forecast opportunity’, in which statistical skill can be developed, tested, and leveraged to determine times and regions in which this skill may be elevated.

High–Resolution Modeling of Airflows and Particle Deposition over Complex Terrain at Sakurajima Volcano

The realistic representation of atmospheric pollutant dispersal over areas of complex topography presents a challenging application for meteorological models. Here, we present results from high–resolution atmospheric modeling in order to gain insight into local processes that can affect ash transport and deposition. The nested Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with the finest resolution of 50 m was used to simulate atmospheric flow over the complex topography of Sakurajima volcano, Japan, for two volcanic eruption cases. The simulated airflow results were shown to compare well against surface observations. As a preliminary application, idealized trajectory modeling for the two cases revealed that accounting for local circulations can significantly impact volcanic ash deposition leading to a total fall velocity up to 2–3 times the particle’s terminal velocity depending on the size. Such a modification of the estimated particle settling velocity over areas with complex topography can be used to parametrize the impact of orographic effects in dispersal models, in order to improve fidelity.

Simulation code for estimating external gamma-ray doses from a radioactive plume and contaminated ground using a local-scale atmospheric dispersion model.

In this study, we developed a simulation code powered by lattice dose-response functions (hereinafter SIBYL), which helps in the quick and accurate estimation of external gamma-ray doses emitted from a radioactive plume and contaminated ground. SIBYL couples with atmospheric dispersion models and calculates gamma-ray dose distributions inside a target area based on a map of activity concentrations using pre-evaluated dose-response functions. Moreover, SIBYL considers radiation shielding due to obstructions such as buildings. To examine the reliability of SIBYL, we investigated five typical cases for steady-state and unsteady-state plume dispersions by coupling the Gaussian plume model and the local-scale high-resolution atmospheric dispersion model using large eddy simulation. The results of this coupled model were compared with those of full Monte Carlo simulations using the particle and heavy-ion transport code system (PHITS). The dose-distribution maps calculated using SIBYL differed by up to 10% from those calculated using PHITS in most target locations. The exceptions were locations far from the radioactive contamination and those behind the intricate structures of building arrays. In addition, SIBYL's computation time using 96 parallel processing elements was several tens of minutes even for the most computationally expensive tasks of this study. The computation using SIBYL was approximately 100 times faster than the same calculation using PHITS under the same computation conditions. From the results of the case studies, we concluded that SIBYL can estimate a ground-level dose-distribution map within one hour with accuracy that is comparable to that of the full Monte Carlo simulation.

Refined Telluric Absorption Correction for Low-resolution Ground-based Spectroscopy: Resolution and Radial Velocity Effects in the O2 A-band for Exoplanets and K i Emission Lines

Abstract Telluric correction of spectroscopic observations is either performed via standard stars that are observed close in time and airmass along with the science target, or recently growing in importance, by theoretical telluric absorption modeling. Both approaches work fine when the telluric lines are resolved, i.e., at a spectral resolving power larger than about 10,000, and it is sufficient to facilitate the detection of spectral features at lower resolution. However, a meaningful quantitative analysis also requires the reliable recovery of line strengths. Here, we show for the Fraunhofer A-band of molecular O2 that the standard telluric correction approach fails in this at lower spectral resolutions, as an example for the general problem. Doppler-shift-dependent errors of the restored flux may arise, which can amount to more than 50% in extreme cases, depending on the line shapes of the target spectral features. Two applications are discussed: the recovery of the O2 band in the reflected light of an Earth analog atmosphere, as facilitated potentially in the future using an orbiting starshade and a ground-based extremely large telescope; and the recovery of the intrinsic ratio of the K i lines in the post-nova V4332 Sgr tracing the optical depth of the emitting region, to exemplify the relevance using present-day instrumentation. We show how one should derive correction functions for the compensation of the error in dependence of radial velocity shift, spectral resolution, and target line-profile function by use of high-resolution atmospheric transmission modeling, which has to be solved for the individual case.

Is interactive air sea coupling relevant for simulating the future climate of Europe?

The majority of regional climate change assessments for the Euro-CORDEX region is based on high resolution atmosphere models. These models use prescribed lower boundary conditions, such as sea surface temperatures (SST) from global ocean General Circulation Models (GCMs), that do not respond to changes simulated by the regional atmosphere model, thus lacking an important feedback to the atmosphere. However, research during the past decade indicated that the use of coupled atmosphere–ocean models can lead to significantly altered model solutions compared to standalone atmosphere models for the present day climate imposing some uncertainty on the widely used uncoupled future scenarios. We here present the first multi-model and multi scenario (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) ensemble of future climate change scenarios downscaled with a coupled atmosphere—ocean model in which sea surface temperature and sea ice fields are explicitly simulated by a coupled state-of-the-art high resolution ocean model and communicated to the atmosphere at 3-hourly time steps. Our ensemble generally confirms results of previous uncoupled ensembles over land areas implying that the coupling effect is restricted mainly to the coupled area and the adjacent coastal zone. By contrast, over the North Sea and Baltic Sea small scale processes point to important coupling effects that mediate the response to climate change and that can not be simulated by uncoupled models. Our results therefore impose general uncertainty on the usage of regional climate change data from uncoupled ensembles over marine areas such as for purposes of offshore wind or mussel farming, the planing of marine protected areas, and marine recreation along the coastal zone. It further sets in question the usage of uncoupled scenario data (such as Euro-CORDEX) to force high resolution ocean models. Comparing coupled and uncoupled hindcast simulations reveals that the coupling effect over land is most pronounced during the warm season when prescribed and modelled sea surface temperatures (SST) differ strongest. In addition, a generally weaker wind regime in summer damps the heat dispersion in the atmosphere so that air temperature anomalies can extent further over land compared to winter. Future projections are discussed under consideration of land-sea warming characteristics for selected climate indices as well as mean seasonal climate change. At the end of the century a clear land-sea pattern is seen in all scenarios with stronger warming over land than over open sea areas. On average land areas warm at a rate 1.5 times faster than areas over the open ocean. Over the coupled area, i.e. the North Sea and Baltic Sea tropical nights are impacted strongest and the Baltic Sea turns out to be a hot spot in future climate. This has been unrecognized in previous studies using high resolution atmosphere models with prescribed SSTs from global models which do not represent small scale ocean processes in the Baltic Sea adequately.

A step towards high resolution modeling of the central Faroe shelf circulation by FarCoast800

This paper describes the FarCoast800 model setup for the Faroe shelf and the validation towards observations. We found that the circulation was in accordance with observations on the shelf and the upper ∼500m of the water column, away from the lateral boundaries. Furthermore, we found high correlations between the model and observations for the on-shelf water, in particular for short-term variations of temperature, demonstrating the importance of high resolution atmospheric forcing. A main challenge for this study was the lateral boundary conditions at all four open boundaries in the varying and steep bathymetry of the FarCoast800 model setup. We also investigated the origin of water reaching the different areas of the shelf. Notably our results indicated intrusion of water originating from the East Icelandic Current into the deeper areas on the eastern part of the Faroe shelf.Our long term motivation of the study was to investigate the capability of the model to drive an even higher resolution ROMS model setup for the central Faroe shelf, enabling the resolution of processes on a 100m scale or less. The study concludes that FarCoast800 can drive a high-resolution nested model area on the Faroe shelf.Here we present a Regional Ocean Model System (ROMS) model setup for the Faroe shelf with a horizontal resolution of 800m x 800m and 35 vertical layers. The model setup is forced by a high resolution atmospheric model, and forced by a 4km x 4km horizontal resolution version of the ROMS model on the lateral boundaries. We name our model setup FarCoast800. The model setup was run for the entire sample year 2013.

Impacts of Increased SST Resolution on the North Pacific Storm Track in ERA-Interim

This study examines the artificial influence of increasing the SST resolution on the storm track over the North Pacific in ERA-Interim. Along with the mesoscale oceanic eddies and fronts resolved during the high-resolution-SST period, the low-level storm track strengthens northward, reaching more than 30% of the maximum values in the low-resolution-SST period after removing the influence of ENSO. The mesoscale structure firstly imprints on the marine atmospheric boundary layer, which then leads to changes in turbulent heat flux and near-surface convergence, forcing a secondary circulation into the free atmosphere, strengthening the vertical eddy heat, momentum and specific humidity fluxes, and contributing to the enhancement of the storm track. Results from a high-resolution atmospheric model further indicate the changes in the storm track due to the mesoscale SST and their relationship.

High-Resolution COSMO-CLM Modeling and an Assessment of Mesoscale Features Caused by Coastal Parameters at Near-Shore Arctic Zones (Kara Sea)

Coastal Arctic regions are characterized by severe mesoscale weather events that include extreme wind speeds, and the rugged shore conditions, islands, and mountain ranges contribute to mesoscale event formation. High-resolution atmospheric modeling is a suitable tool to reproduce and estimate some of these events, and so the regional non-hydrostatic climate atmospheric model COSMO-CLM (Consortium for Small-scale Modeling developed within the framework of the international science group CLM-Community) was used to reproduce mesoscale circulation in the Arctic coast zone under various surface conditions. Mid-term experiments were run over the Arctic domain, especially over the Kara Sea region, using the downscaling approach, with ≈12 km and ≈3 km horizontal grid sizes. The best model configuration was determined using standard verification methods; however, the model run verification process raised questions over its quality and aptness based on the high level of small-scale coastline diversity and associated relief properties. Modeling case studies for high wind speeds were used to study hydrodynamic mesoscale circulation reproduction, and we found that although the model could not describe the associated wind dynamic features at all scales using ≈3 km resolution, it could simulate different scales of island wind shadow effects, tip jets, downslope winds, vortex chains, and so on, quite realistically. This initial success indicated that further research could reveal more about the detailed properties of mesoscale circulations and extreme winds by applying finer resolution modeling.

Observing meteotsunamis (“Marrobbio”) on the southwestern coast of Sicily

The paper presents sea level and air pressure observations acquired during the 2007 experiment carried out along the southwestern coast of Sicily. The experiment aimed to quantify the atmospheric and oceanic conditions related with the phenomenon of marrobbio, a kind of meteotsunami that is frequently observed in the Strait of Sicily. Sea level data measured at surrounding tide gauges, radio-sounding atmospheric profiles and ERA5 reanalysis data conjoined the analysis. Rapid air pressure and sea level oscillations were measured simultaneously during marrobbio events, while the atmospheric disturbances were estimated to propagate mostly towards east-northeast with a predominant speed of 19–24 m/s. The observed propagation direction and speed were found conducive for generation of long ocean waves through Proudman resonance over a wide outer shelf, although a complex bathymetry in front of affected area may strongly modify the generation. The atmospheric patterns were favourable for wave ducting mechanism during most of the observed marrobbio events. A need for establishing long-term high-frequency observations at marrobbio hot spots, as well to apply high-resolution atmospheric and oceanic models for proper quantification of meteotsunamis, is emphasized.

Evaluation of convective parameterization schemes in simulation of tropical cyclones by Climate Forecast System model: Version 2

Recently, a high resolution atmospheric general circulation model, i.e., Global Forecast System has been operationalized for 10 days weather forecast over Indian region. However, for extreme weather systems such as cyclones, different physical processes and their interactions with atmosphere and ocean play an important role in cyclone intensity, track, etc. Keeping this in view, Coupled Forecast System model version 2 has been used to evaluate the simulation for three severe cyclones (Phailin, Viyaru and Lehar) of 2013. In the present study, along with already existing mass-flux cumulus parameterization, i.e., Simplified Arakawa–Schubert (SAS) and revised SAS (RSAS) parameterization schemes, an additional convective adjustment scheme, i.e., Betts–Miller–Janjic (BMJ) is implemented and its performance is evaluated for the Indian Ocean cyclones. The experiments are conducted with three cumulus schemes at three different resolutions (T126, T382, and T574). Both SAS and RSAS overestimate convective rain, whereas BMJ scheme produces convective rain comparable with the observation due to the fact that BMJ produces deeper convection and does not trigger the convection too often. BMJ sustains the instability and deep convection longer thereby impacting the cyclone intensity and heavy rainfall associated with it. It is also noted that BMJ is efficient in producing rain than the SAS and RSAS. From the analyses of OLR and rain rate, BMJ is found to simulate a much realistic relation of cloud and precipitation. The paper argues that compared to available SAS and RSAS, BMJ scheme realistically produces heavy precipitation associated with the tropical cyclone over Indian region in a coupled model.

North Pacific storm track response to the mesoscale SST in a global high-resolution atmospheric model

The response of the North Pacific storm track to the mesoscale sea surface temperature (SST) in winter is investigated via a global high-resolution atmospheric model. A simulation forced by eddy-resolving SST is compared with a simulation in which the mesoscale SST is filtered out. The results show that removing the mesoscale SST could greatly influence the storm track in the free atmosphere, with a significant decrease of approximately 20% in the local region and a southward shift downstream over the eastern North Pacific. Compared with those in previous studies, the responses of the storm track seem to be independent from models. The underlying mechanism is that changes in the boundary layer induced by mesoscale SST lead to convergence at the surface through pressure adjustment, forcing a secondary circulation along Kuroshio and Oyashio confluence region (KOCR). Then the winter mean vertical eddy fluxes are greatly suppressed over KOCR after removing the mesoscale SST, transporting less heat and moisture into the free atmosphere. Furthermore, the response of baroclinicity and baroclinic energy conversion was investigated, which bears much resemblance with the changes of storm track, indicating the important role on the response of storm track to mesoscale SST.

Impacts of Madden–Julian oscillation on tropical cyclone activity over the South China Sea: Observations versus HiRAM simulations

AbstractThis study investigates the impacts of Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) on tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the western North Pacific (WNP), with a focus on the South China Sea (SCS), based on results from observations and high‐resolution atmospheric model (HiRAM) simulations. Observational analyses show that MJO imposes marked impacts on TC genesis over the SCS, with more (less) TC formations during the enhanced (suppressed) convection phases of MJO. Moreover, MJO also plays an important role in controlling the tracks of both westward‐moving and eastward‐moving TCs over the SCS. Results from HiRAM simulations indicate that, while the atmospheric model generates an MJO of a faster propagation, the general features of TC activity (including genesis and track) changes over the SCS associated with MJO variability have been properly reproduced by HiRAM.

Simulation and Projection of Circulations Associated with Atmospheric Rivers along the North American Northeast Coast

AbstractTorrential rainfall occurring along the North American northeast coast (NANC) in summer and autumn is accompanied by strong atmospheric rivers (ARs), which efficiently transport abundant moisture along a narrow-stretched path associated with a low pressure system. In this study, an autodetection method was used to identify ARs that reached the NANC, based on the 6-hourly data of the ERA-Interim reanalysis conducted by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, in summer and autumn from 1979 to 2016. Stronger ARs tended to occur in the eastern flank of a cyclonic anomaly that covered the entire North American east coast from Florida to Newfoundland, with a positive precipitation anomaly over the NANC. The cyclonic anomalies and precipitation in autumn were stronger but less frequent than those in summer. Cyclonic anomalies were parts of westward-tilting wavelike circulation perturbations moving into North America from the extratropical North Pacific and moving continuously eastward, reaching the east coast in approximately five days. The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) High-Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM), which realistically simulates the occurrence frequency and key characteristics of ARs in current climatic conditions, was used to project the AR activity and corresponding circulations in the future warmer climate under the representative concentration pathway 8.5 scenario. The HiRAM that was driven by sea surface temperature changes projected an overall increase in the occurrence of stronger ARs in both summer and autumn and the precipitation strength in autumn along the NANC by the end of the twenty-first century. This projected enhancement was contributed to by two processes—a smaller contribution was from the weakened basin-scale North Atlantic anticyclone but with higher moisture content, and a larger contribution was from the enhancement in anomalous circulation during AR events with integrated vapor transport exceeding the 75th percentile. These results suggest that the influence of strong ARs on the NANC may increase in the warmer future due to the combination of increased water vapor in the large-scale environment (thermodynamic effect) and enhanced anomalous circulations (dynamic effect). The AR-associated circulations in autumn were also projected to have a stronger tropical connection in the warmer future.

Obtaining More Information about Precipitation Biases over East Asia from Hourly-Scale Evaluation of Model Simulation

The hourly summer precipitation simulations over East Asia by the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Science Climate System Model (CAMS-CSM) high-resolution Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) runs (T255, ~50 km) were evaluated based on the merged hourly precipitation product released by the China Meteorological Administration (CMA). The results show that the simulation biases are closely related to the topography, with the precipitation amount and frequency overestimated (underestimated), and duration of precipitation events being longer (shorter), over the western high-altitude (eastern plain) regions of China. Six regions with large discrepancies were further analyzed. In terms of the frequency-intensity structure, the overestimation of precipitation frequency is mainly due to the excessive simulated weak precipitation over the four regions with positive biases: the southern edge of the Tibetan Plateau (STP), the northeastern edge of the Tibetan Plateau (NETP), the eastern periphery of the Tibetan Plateau (EPTP), and the mountainous area of North China (NCM); while the underestimation of frequency is mainly due to the insufficient precipitation with moderate intensity over the two regions with negative biases: lower reaches of the Yangtze River (LYR) and the South China coast (SCC). Based on the duration-diurnal structure analysis, two kinds of precipitation events with different natures can be distinguished. The long-duration night to early morning precipitation events have a significant contribution to the precipitation amount biases for all the six key regions, and this kind of precipitation mainly affects the precipitation diurnal variation over the mountainous areas or steep terrain. Although the short-duration afternoon precipitation events only have a greater contribution to the precipitation amount biases over the SCC region, this kind of precipitation affects the diurnal variation over the NCM region and the two key regions with negative biases. Such a detailed hourly-scale evaluation is helpful for enriching the understanding of simulation biases and to further improve model performance.

Water age variability in a Patagonian fjord

Abstract Transport time scales are helpful to determine aquatic ecosystem health and sensitivity to pollution. Water age was studied in a Patagonian fjord in Chile with an unstructured three-dimensional hydrodynamic model (MIKE 3) coupled with a high-resolution atmospheric model (WRF). Water age is defined as the time a water parcel has remained since its entrance to a system. Water age is represented in the Puyuhuapi fjord and adjacent Jacaf channel with two tracers: i) freshwater from rivers and ii) ocean water. Hydrodynamic model results showed reasonable stratification structure in the fjord and response to wind forcing. The fjord had high water age values (300–400 days) during autumn-winter due to increased wind stress, which favored vertical mixing and entrainment of subpycnocline waters of higher age. Wind stress decreased during spring-summer, which favored stratification and decreased water age (~100 days). The change of water age at intermediate (50–100 m) and deep (>100 m) layers is asynchronous. Intermediate layers have their lowest annual water age (100 days) during autumn-winter, when deep waters, especially in the northern part of the Puyuhuapi fjord, have the highest annual water age (>600 days). Increased inflows of dense waters in spring-summer above a sill of the Puyuhuapi fjord (~100 m) renew the deep upstream basins, causing their lowest annual water age values (400 days) at a time when intermediate waters have their highest values.