High Real Interest Rates Research Articles

A Multidimensional Empirical Analysis on the Nominal and Real International Fisher Effects with a Mediator Variable

The purpose of this paper is to solve the puzzle of UIP(Uncovered Interest Parity). Here we derive the real IFE(International Fisher Effect) and empirically tests the validity of the real and nominal IFE in the case of KRW/USD exchange rates. In addition, we check the mediation effect of the dI(inflation rate differential) variable by adopting the Baron and Kenny’s(1986) model in our empirical tests. Main findings are as follows: 1) The nominal and the real IFE do not hold in the real world. In addition, the mediator variable of dI does not play an expected role in our empirical test model. 2) We find unexpectedly that the Fisher Effect holds empirically between the two countries. It tells us that the financial/capital markets of the US and Korea have been brought closer beyond our recognition. 3) In the case of the KRW/USD rate, the UIP puzzle might not be a puzzle. That is, the higher nominal interest rates meant the higher real interest rates for Korea due to dR(nominal interest rates differential) has been greater than dI(inflation rates differential) in the two countries.

Las tasas activas de interés en el sector microfinanciero de México: Un estudio de caso

Los préstamos que ofrecen las instituciones de microfinanzas deberían ayudar a que muchos empresarios pudieran elevar sus ingresos. Sin embargo, las altas tasas de interés que cobran merma tal impacto. Ante ello, la política pública debería buscar los mecanismos idóneos para reducir dichas tasas. Haciendo uso de un panel de datos encontramos que los dos principales determinantes de la tasa activa de interés son el costo de fondeo y la eficiencia con que operan dichas instituciones en el país. Una alteración de estos factores tiene mayor incidencia sobre la tasa de interés que cobran las instituciones más grandes.

Are corporatist labour markets different? Labour market regimes and unemployment in OECD countries

Abstract.Empirical studies on the unemployment effects of labour market institutions show contradictory results. One explanation is that these institutions affect unemployment differently depending on the regime in which they operate. Because of good labour relations, institutional complementarities and a trade‐off between external and internal flexibility, they produce distinctive effects in corporatist regimes. Based on empirical evidence from 20 OECD countries over the period 1985–2008, the author finds that, in corporatist labour markets, strict employment protection legislation reduces unemployment, and unemployment benefits have no negative effect. He also shows that high real interest rates, low capital accumulation and restrictive fiscal policy during recessions increase unemployment.

The Euro Crisis: Mission Accomplished?

The Euro Crisis: Mission Accomplished?

On the Brink? Intra Euro-Area Imbalances and the Sustainability of Foreign Debt

This paper analyses the role of financial market credibility shocks from the European Monetary Union accession and the European sovereign debt crisis for diverging current account balances and net foreign debt positions in the euro area. Based on a dynamic general equilibrium model foreign debt positions of European crisis countries are shown to have significantly diverged from a sustainable path. Today, high foreign debt positions prove difficult to reverse given appreciated real exchange rates and high real interest rates. Real depreciations in European crisis countries, while necessary for long‐term crisis resolution, further worsen foreign debt sustainability by raising the real value of debt in the short‐term. To prevent a debt–deflation spiral the real interest burden should be reduced and the real value of debt should be capped.

On the Brink? Intra‐euro Area Imbalances and the Sustainability of Foreign Debt

AbstractThis paper analyses the role of financial market credibility shocks from the European Monetary Union accession and the European sovereign debt crisis for diverging current account balances and net foreign debt positions in the euro area. Based on a dynamic general equilibrium model foreign debt positions of European crisis countries are shown to have significantly diverged from a sustainable path. Today, high foreign debt positions prove difficult to reverse given appreciated real exchange rates and high real interest rates. Real depreciations in European crisis countries, while necessary for long‐term crisis resolution, further worsen foreign debt sustainability by raising the real value of debt in the short‐term. To prevent a debt–deflation spiral the real interest burden should be reduced and the real value of debt should be capped.

The 4 Percent Rule is Not Safe in a Low-Yield World

The safety of a 4% initial withdrawal strategy depends on asset return assumptions. Using historical averages to guide simulations for failure rates for retirees spending an inflation-adjusted 4% of retirement date assets over 30 years results in an estimated failure rate of about 6%. This modest projected failure rate rises sharply if real returns decline. As of January 2013, intermediate-term real interest rates are about 4% less than their historical average. Calibrating bond returns to the January 2013 real yields offered on 5-year TIPS, while maintaining the historical equity premium, causes the projected failure rate for retirement account withdrawals to jump to 57%. The 4% rule cannot be treated as a safe initial withdrawal rate in today’s low interest rate environment. Some planners may wish to assume that today’s low interest rates are an aberration and that higher real interest rates will return in the medium-term horizon. Although there is little evidence to support this assumption, we estimate how a reversion to historical real yields will impact failure rates. Because of sequence of returns risk, portfolio withdrawals can cause the events in early retirement to have a disproportionate effect on the sustainability of an income strategy. We simulate failure rates if today's bond rates return to their historical average after either 5 or 10 years and find that failure rates are much higher (18% and 32%, respectively for a 50% stock allocation) than many retirees may be willing to accept. The success of the 4% rule in the U.S. may be an historical anomaly, and clients may wish to consider their retirement income strategies more broadly than relying solely on systematic withdrawals from a volatile portfolio.

Quinze anos de rigidez monetária no Brasil pós-Plano Real: uma agenda de pesquisa

Fifteen years of monetary inflexibility in Brazil after the Real Plan: a research agenda.The paper makes a review of literature and a research agenda on the anomaly of Brazilian monetary policy. Following a retrospect of the first 15 years after the Real Plan, there is a review of studies aiming to explain the high real interest rate. None of the summarized theses can completely explain the phenomenon. The main research opportunities are: deepening of empirical evidence of monetary policy efficacy loss; improvement in mensuration of its inefficacy; and improvement of alternative instruments to control inflation. The field of political economy is also fertile. One should assess the relevance of oligopolies as an explaining factor of persistence of high inflation. JEL Classification: E31.

Public Debt Overhangs: Advanced-Economy Episodes Since 1800

We identify the major public debt overhang episodes in the advanced economies since the early 1800s, characterized by public debt to GDP levels exceeding 90 percent for at least five years. Consistent with Reinhart and Rogoff (2010) and most of the more recent research, we find that public debt overhang episodes are associated with lower growth than during other periods. The duration of the average debt overhang episode is perhaps its most striking feature. Among the 26 episodes we identify, 20 lasted more than a decade. The long duration belies the view that the correlation is caused mainly by debt buildups during business cycle recessions. The long duration also implies that the cumulative shortfall in output from debt overhang is potentially massive. These growth-reducing effects of high public debt are apparently not transmitted exclusively through high real interest rates, as in eleven of the episodes, interest rates are not materially higher.

Do The Federal Deficits Matter?

The sharp and sustained increases in the budget and current-account deficits have once again raised a great deal of concern among many economists on the reemergence of the twin deficits of the1980s and their impacts upon macroeconomic variables. In view of majority of economists, these developments will be creating economic problems such as high real rates of interest, low savings, stagnant economic growth, large and persistent current account deficits, and probably a higher inflation. All economists, however, do not share this view. Those associated with the writings of Robert Barro, argue the Ricardian Equivalence Theorem that budget deficits do not matter and they have no real effects on the economy. The empirical evidence on this issue has been rather inconclusive. In contrast to the previous studies that have used single equation, I use a balance of payment model to investigate simultaneously the impacts of budget deficits on a number of macroeconomic variables using a system of simultaneous equations.

The Long Slump

In a market-clearing economy, declines in demand from one sector do not cause large declines in aggregate output because other sectors expand. The key price mediating the response is the interest rate. A decline in the rate stimulates all categories of spending. But in a low-inflation economy, the room for a decline in the rate is small, because of the notorious lower limit of zero on the nominal interest rate. In the Great Depression, substantial deflation caused the real interest rate to reach high levels. In the Great Slump that began at the end of 2007, low inflation resulted in an only slightly negative real rate when full employment called for a much lower real rate because of declines in demand. Fortunately, the inflation rate hardly responded to conditions in product and labor markets, else deflation might have occurred, with an even higher real interest rate. I concentrate on three closely related sources of declines in demand: the buildup of excess stocks of housing and consumer durables, the corresponding expansion of consumer debt that financed the buildup, and financial frictions that resulted from the decline in real-estate prices. (JEL E23, E24, E31, E32, E65)

Inventories, Interest Rates, and Markups

This note explains why inventories might rise with interest rates. Higher real interest rates not only increase the carrying cost of inventories they also reduce the present value of the markup on delayed sales. When the markup is large enough, it is profitable to increase stocks in order to avoid sales delays. Another possibility is that the firm has an incentive to smooth its total stocks so that an increase in the real interest rate causes finished goods to fall but the reduction is partially offset by an increase in raw materials.

The Real Exchange Rate, Real Interest Rates, and the Risk Premium

The well-known uncovered interest parity puzzle arises from the empirical regularity that, among developed country pairs, the high interest rate country tends to have high expected returns on its short term assets. At the same time, another strand of the literature has documented that high real interest rate countries tend to have currencies that are strong in real terms - indeed, stronger than can be accounted for by the path of expected real interest differentials under uncovered interest parity. These two strands - one concerning short-run expected changes and the other concerning the level of the real exchange rate - have apparently contradictory implications for the relationship of the foreign exchange risk premium and interest-rate differentials. This paper documents the puzzle, and shows that existing models appear unable to account for both empirical findings. The features of a model that might reconcile the findings are discussed.

Asleep at the Wheel: The Real Interest Rate Experience in Australia

Real interest rates have been unsustainably high in Australia for a generation, yet it seems no one has noticed. A most important change has gone unmonitored. Historically high real interest rates, examined here in terms of the variable housing loan rate, now exceed increases in the returns from production and complicate remediation of pervasive problems. Significant external problems have arisen as the nation has expended more than it produced, and borrowed to service the gap. Issues raised in this paper deserve critical attention, and new policies. Constructive dialogues and new thinking are needed if Australia is to successfully move beyond current debts and difficulties.

Capital accumulation, labour market institutions and unemployment in the medium run

According to the mainstream view, labour market institutions (LMIs) are the key determinants of unemployment in the medium run. The actual empirical explanatory power of measures for labour market institutions, however, has recently been called into question. The Keynesian view holds periods of high real interest rates and insufficient capital accumulation responsible for unemployment. Empirical work in this tradition has paid little attention to the role of LMIs. This paper contributes to the debate by highlighting the role of autonomous changes in capital accumulation as a macroeconomic shock. In the empirical analysis, medium-term unemployment is explained by capital accumulation, LMIs and a number of macroeconomic shocks in a panel analysis covering 20 OECD countries. The economic effects of changes in LMI, variations in capital accumulation and other macro shocks are compared. Capital accumulation and the real interest rate are found to have statistically significant effects that are robust to the inclusion of control variables and show larger effects than LMI.

Causes of banking crises revisited

We examine to what extent there exists heterogeneity in the causes of a banking crisis. For this purpose, we use a random coefficient logit model including 110 countries between 1970 and 2007. We conclude that there exists significant heterogeneity in the causes of a banking crisis. We find that a high credit growth, a negative GDP growth and a high real interest rate are on average the most important causes of a banking crisis. However, none of the variables has a significant impact in more than 60 percent of the banking crises. Besides we find that the impact of the determinants differ between systemic and non-systemic crises and across stages of economic development.

Brasil, balanço econômico, sucessos e limites

Aparentemente duas filosofias econômicas opostas caracterizam a política econômica seguida pelos governos sucessivos sob a presidência de Lula. Uma, monetarista, busca frear a alta dos preços: taxas de juros reais muito elevadas, superávits primários consideráveis, apreciação da moeda nacional. Ela explica ao mesmo tempo as dificuldades de fazer crescer a taxa de investimento, aumentar o valor agregado dos bens produzidos e favorecer a produção de bens de alto conteúdo tecnológico. A outra, keynesiana, busca diminuir as desigualdades, aumentar o salário mínimo e assegurar uma cobertura social mais ampla. Ela explica a taxa de crescimento elevada e o novo dinamismo do mercado interno. Com a crise internacional, a segunda filosofia influencia mais a política econômica do que no passado e oferece a oportunidade de ingresso numa nova era, contanto que seja removido o obstáculo de um sistema fiscal regressivo e contanto que se crie, no futuro, uma política industrial mais ativa que diminua os riscos de primarização que ameaçam o Brasil.

A panel-data analysis of interest rates and dollarization in Brazil

We investigate the role of financial dollarization and systemic risks in the determination of real interest rates in Brazil. In a simple currency-choice portfolio model, we show that a strategy of reducing dollarization, if it fails to address fundamental macroeconomic risks, leads to higher domestic real interest rates. We confirm this prediction in an empirical panel-based model, involving systemic risk variables, but find that the effect is small after controlling for the risks of dilution and default. We apply our empirical estimates to the case of Brazil - a natural case study given its low degree of financial dollarization and very high real interest rates. The estimated model is unable to explain the high interest rate levels in the aftermath of Brazil's 1994 inflation stabilization. However, since the adoption in 1999 of inflation targeting and floating exchange rates, Brazil's real interest rates are found to be gradually converging to the model's predicted values. The estimation also shows that further reductions in Brazil's real interest rates could be achieved through sound fundamentals that led to investment-grade status rather than financial dollarization.

Financial Systems and Financial Reforms in CIS Countries

At the beginning of 1990s the Soviet successor states started to transform their financial sectors to meet the needs of the emerging market economies. Following a decade of transition, results differ.Although the Baltic States were able to build quite successful financial systems, in the CIS countries financial systems remain a major obstacle to economic growth. The hyperinflations of the early 1990s, the financial scandals that followed the collapse of monobank systems, and subsequent incomplete progress in constructing non-bank financial institutions and effective regulatory structures have had adverse consequences. These include weak bank balances sheets, high real interest rates, and poor access to capital for small enterprises and start ups. With a few exceptions, nontransparent regulation, inadequate disclosure frameworks, and weak protection of shareholders rights continue to limit investor participation in CIS financial markets. The absence of effective threepillar pension systems further limits the demand for domestic debt and equities. Fortunately, there are signs of improvement. Bank lending and deposits are growing in many CIS economies, the proportion of bad debt in bank credit portfolio is falling, and lending and deposit interest rate spreads are diminishing. The solid economic growth recorded since 1999 in many CIS countries is helping memories of the 1998 financial crisis to fade, and stock exchanges in some CIS countries are currently at or near record levels. Financial systems in CIS economies may be moving toward the successful frameworks put in place in the new EU member states. However, because they have not benefited from the extensive foreign direct investment that recapitalised banks in Central Europe, financial stability in many CIS countries remains open to question.This paper is built as follows. Chapter 2 overviews major reforms in bank and non-bank financial institutions after 1991 followed by analysis of changes in ownership (Chapter 3) and changes in market structure (Chapter 4). Chapter 5 discusses the major trends in the CIS financial sectors and Chapter 6 concludes.

Capital Accumulation, Labour Market Institutions, and Unemployment in the Medium Run

According to the mainstream view, labour market institutions (LMI) are the key determinants of unemployment in the medium run. The actual empirical explanatory power of measures for labour market institutions, however, has been called into question recently (Baker et al 2005, Baccaro and Rei 2007). The Keynesian view holds periods of high real interest rates and insufficient capital accumulation responsible for unemployment (Arestis et al 2007). Empirical work in this tradition has paid little attention to role of LMI. This paper contributes to the debate by highlighting the role of autonomous changes in capital accumulation as a macroeconomic shock. In the empirical analysis, medium-term unemployment is explained by capital accumulation, labour market institutions and a number of macroeconomic shocks in a panel analysis covering 20 OECD countries. The economic effects of institutional changes, variations in capital accumulation and other macro shocks are compared. Capital accumulation and the real interest rate are found to have statistically significant effects that are robust to the inclusion of control variables and show larger effects than LMI.