Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Virus Research Articles

Avian influenza overview December 2023-March 2024.

Between 2 December 2023 and 15 March 2024, highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) A(H5) outbreaks were reported in domestic (227) and wild (414) birds across 26 countries in Europe. Compared to previous years, although still widespread, the overall number of HPAI virus detections in birds was significantly lower, among other reasons, possibly due to some level of flock immunity in previously affected wild bird species, resulting in reduced contamination of the environment, and a different composition of circulating A(H5N1) genotypes. Most HPAI outbreaks reported in poultry were primary outbreaks following the introduction of the virus by wild birds. Outside Europe, the majority of outbreaks in poultry were still clustered in North America, while the spread of A(H5) to more naïve wild bird populations on mainland Antarctica is of particular concern. For mammals, A(H5N5) was reported for the first time in Europe, while goat kids in the United States of America represented the first natural A(H5N1) infection in ruminants. Since the last report and as of 12 March 2024, five human avian influenza A(H5N1) infections, including one death, three of which were clade 2.3.2.1c viruses, have been reported by Cambodia. China has reported two human infections, including one fatal case, with avian influenza A(H5N6), four human infections with avian influenza A(H9N2) and one fatal case with co-infection of seasonal influenza A(H3N2) and avian influenza A(H10N5). The latter case was the first documented human infection with avian influenza A(H10N5). Human infections with avian influenza remain rare and no sustained human-to-human infection has been observed. The risk of infection with currently circulating avian H5 influenza viruses of clade 2.3.4.4b in Europe remains low for the general population in the EU/EEA. The risk of infection remains low to moderate for those occupationally or otherwise exposed to infected animals.

Descriptive Epidemiology and Phylodynamics of the “First Wave” of an Outbreak of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (H5N1 Clade 2.3.4.4b) in British Columbia and the Yukon, Canada, April to September 2022

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) is a viral disease that causes significant rates of morbidity and mortality in domestic poultry and wild birds, with occasional spillover into mammals, including humans. Beginning in November 2021, Canada experienced its longest and largest outbreak of HPAI in history. A portion of this outbreak (H5N1, clade 2.3.4.4b) occurred in western Canada, specifically in British Columbia (B.C.) and the Yukon, between April 12 and September 11, 2022, which was classified as the “first wave” in this region. Wild birds and mammals identified through passive surveillance and suspect domestic poultry flocks were screened for avian influenza virus (AIV), typed H5 by qPCR, and positive cases were whole genome sequenced. Descriptive epidemiological and phylodynamic analyses were performed to: (1) understand the taxonomic and geographic extent of wild species involved; and (2) examine the origins and probable transmission networks of HPAI viruses introduced into B.C./Yukon by comparing local viruses with those circulating elsewhere in North America. This outbreak included 21 species of wild birds, 2 species of wild mammals, 4 commercial, and 12 domestic small flock infected premises. Canada geese (Branta canadensis) and bald eagles (Haliaeetus leucocephalus) were the most common wild species detected. We demonstrate that north-south avian migration via the Pacific Flyway is the probable route of multiple incursions into this region. Phylogenetic analysis of the hemagglutinin (HA) segment revealed that the B.C./Yukon viruses detected formed five distinct genetic clusters which were maintained across the whole genome. Although, the genome segments were predominantly Eurasian in origin, NP and PB2 segments from all samples, as well as NS and PB1 segments from Cluster 3, had North American origins. Overall, we demonstrate the utility of genomic epidemiology to inform HPAI transmission dynamics across Western Canada and discuss potential knowledge gaps that exist in passive surveillance strategies for HPAI.

Genome sequences of haemagglutinin cleavage site predict the pathogenicity phenotype of avian influenza virus: statistically validated data for facilitating rapid declarations and reducing reliance on in vivo testing

ABSTRACT Based on the pathogenicity in chickens, most H1–H16 avian influenza viruses (AIV) cause mild diseases, whereas some of the H5 and H7 AI viruses cause severe, systemic disease. The number of basic amino acids in the haemagglutinin (HA) cleavage site of AIV plays a critical role in pathogenicity. As we gain a greater understanding of the molecular mechanisms of pathogenicity, genome sequencing of the HA0 cleavage site has assumed a greater role in assessment of the potential pathogenicity of H5 and H7 viruses. We validated the use of HA cleavage site motif analysis by comparing molecular pathotyping data against experimental in vivo (intravenous pathogenicity index [IVPI] and lethality) data for determination of both low pathogenicity and high pathogenicity AI virus declaration with the goal of expediting pathotype confirmation and further reducing the reliance on in vivo testing. Our data provide statistical support to the continued use of molecular determination of pathotype for AI viruses based on the HA cleavage site sequence in the absence of an in vivo study determination. This approach not only expedites the declaration process of highly pathogenic AIV (HPAIV) but also reduces the need for experimental in vivo testing of H5 and H7 viruses.

Species-specific emergence of H7 highly pathogenic avian influenza virus is driven by intrahost selection differences between chickens and ducks.

Highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses (HPAIVs) cause severe hemorrhagic disease in terrestrial poultry and are a threat to the poultry industry, wild life, and human health. HPAIVs arise from low pathogenic avian influenza viruses (LPAIVs), which circulate in wild aquatic birds. HPAIV emergence is thought to occur in poultry and not wild aquatic birds, but the reason for this species-restriction is not known. We hypothesized that, due to species-specific tropism and replication, intrahost HPAIV selection is favored in poultry and disfavored in wild aquatic birds. We tested this hypothesis by co-inoculating chickens, representative of poultry, and ducks, representative of wild aquatic birds, with a mixture of H7N7 HPAIV and LPAIV, mimicking HPAIV emergence in an experimental setting. Virus selection was monitored in swabs and tissues by RT-qPCR and immunostaining of differential N-terminal epitope tags that were added to the hemagglutinin protein. HPAIV was selected in four of six co-inoculated chickens, whereas LPAIV remained the major population in co-inoculated ducks on the long-term, despite detection of infectious HPAIV in tissues at early time points. Collectively, our data support the hypothesis that HPAIVs are more likely to be selected at the intrahost level in poultry than in wild aquatic birds and point towards species-specific differences in HPAIV and LPAIV tropism and replication levels as possible explanations.

Genetics of H5N1 and H5N8 High-Pathogenicity Avian Influenza Viruses Isolated in Japan in Winter 2021-2022.

In winter 2021-2022, H5N1 and H5N8 high-pathogenicity avian influenza (HPAI) viruses (HPAIVs) caused serious outbreaks in Japan: 25 outbreaks of HPAI at poultry farms and 107 cases in wild birds or in the environment. Phylogenetic analyses divided H5 HPAIVs isolated in Japan in the winter of 2021-2022 into three groups-G2a, G2b, and G2d-which were disseminated at different locations and times. Full-genome sequencing analyses of these HPAIVs revealed a strong relationship of multiple genes between Japan and Siberia, suggesting that they arose from reassortment events with avian influenza viruses (AIVs) in Siberia. The results emphasize the complex of dissemination and reassortment events with the movement of migratory birds, and the importance of continual monitoring of AIVs in Japan and Siberia for early alerts to the intrusion of HPAIVs.

Caught Right on the Spot: Isolation and Characterization of Clade 2.3.4.4b H5N8 High Pathogenicity Avian Influenza Virus from a Common Pochard (Aythya ferina) Being Attacked by a Peregrine Falcon (Falco peregrinus).

We isolated a high pathogenicity avian influenza (HPAI) virus from a common pochard (Aythya ferina) that was being attacked by a bird of prey in South Korea in December 2020. Genetic analyses indicated that the isolate was closely related to the clade 2.3.4.4b H5N8 HPAI viruses found in South Korea and Japan during the winter season of 2020-2021. The histopathological examination revealed multifocal necrotizing inflammation in the liver, kidney, and spleen. Viral antigens were detected in the liver, kidney, spleen, trachea, intestine, and pancreas, indicating the HPAI virus caused a systemic infection. The presence of immunoreactivity for the viral antigen was observed in the cells involved in multifocal necrotic inflammation. Notably, epitheliotropic-positive patterns were identified in the epithelial cells of the trachea, mucosal epithelium of the intestine, and ductular epithelium of the pancreas. These findings provide direct evidence supporting the possibility of HPAI transmission from infected waterfowl to predators.

Spatiotemporal genotype replacement of H5N8 avian influenza viruses contributed to H5N1 emergence in 2021/2022 panzootic.

Since 2020, clade 2.3.4.4b highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N8 and H5N1 viruses have swept through continents, posing serious threats to the world. Through comprehensive analyses of epidemiological, genetic, and bird migration data, we found that the dominant genotype replacement of the H5N8 viruses in 2020 contributed to the H5N1 outbreak in the 2021/2022 wave. The 2020 outbreak of the H5N8 G1 genotype instead of the G0 genotype produced reassortment opportunities and led to the emergence of a new H5N1 virus with G1's HA and MP genes. Despite extensive reassortments in the 2021/2022 wave, the H5N1 virus retained the HA and MP genes, causing a significant outbreak in Europe and North America. Furtherly, through the wild bird migration flyways investigation, we found that the temporal-spatial coincidence between the outbreak of the H5N8 G1 virus and the bird autumn migration may have expanded the H5 viral spread, which may be one of the main drivers of the emergence of the 2020-2022 H5 panzootic.IMPORTANCESince 2020, highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5 subtype variants of clade 2.3.4.4b have spread across continents, posing unprecedented threats globally. However, the factors promoting the genesis and spread of H5 HPAI viruses remain unclear. Here, we found that the spatiotemporal genotype replacement of H5N8 HPAI viruses contributed to the emergence of the H5N1 variant that caused the 2021/2022 panzootic, and the viral evolution in poultry of Egypt and surrounding area and autumn bird migration from the Russia-Kazakhstan region to Europe are important drivers of the emergence of the 2020-2022 H5 panzootic. These findings provide important targets for early warning and could help control the current and future HPAI epidemics.

Highly pathogenic avian influenza virus H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b from Peru forms a monophyletic group with Chilean isolates in South America

Highly pathogenic avian Influenza virus (HPAIV) has spread in an unprecedented extent globally in recent years. Despite the large reports of cases in Asia, Europe, and North America, little is known about its circulation in South America. Here, we describe the isolation, and whole genome characterization of HPAIV obtained from sampling 26 wild bird species in Peru, representing one of the largest studies in our region following the latest HPAIV introduction in South America. Out of 147 samples analyzed, 22 were positive for detection of avian influenza virus using a qRT-PCR-based assay. Following inoculation into embryonated chicken eggs, fourteen viral isolates were obtained from which nine isolates were selected for genome characterization, based on their host relevance. Our results identified the presence of HPAIV H5N1 subtype in a highly diverse wild bird species. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that these isolates correspond to the clade 2.3.4.4b, sharing a common ancestor with North American isolates and forming a monophyletic group along with isolates from Chile. Altogether, changes at the amino acid levels compared to their closest relatives indicates the virus is evolving locally, highlighting the need for constant genomic surveillance. This data evidence the chances for spillover events increases as the virus spreads into large populations of immunologically naïve avian species and adding conditions for cross species transmission.

HPAIV outbreak triggers short-term colony connectivity in a seabird metapopulation

Disease outbreaks can drastically disturb the environment of surviving animals, but the behavioural, ecological, and epidemiological consequences of disease-driven disturbance are poorly understood. Here, we show that an outbreak of High Pathogenicity Avian Influenza Virus (HPAIV) coincided with unprecedented short-term behavioural changes in Northern gannets (Morus bassanus). Breeding gannets show characteristically strong fidelity to their nest sites and foraging areas (2015–2019; n = 120), but during the 2022 HPAIV outbreak, GPS-tagged gannets instigated long-distance movements beyond well-documented previous ranges and the first ever recorded visits of GPS-tagged adults to other gannet breeding colonies. Our findings suggest that the HPAIV outbreak triggered changes in space use patterns of exposed individuals that amplified the epidemiological connectivity among colonies and may generate super-spreader events that accelerate disease transmission across the metapopulation. Such self-propagating transmission from and towards high density animal aggregations may explain the unexpectedly rapid pan-European spread of HPAIV in the gannet.

Genomic epidemiology of highly pathogenic avian influenza A (H5N1) virus in wild birds in South Korea during 2021-2022: Changes in viral epidemic patterns.

Clade 2.3.4.4b highly pathogenic avian influenza A (HPAI) viruses have been detected in wild birds worldwide, causing recurrent outbreaks since 2016. During the winter of 2021-2022, we detected one H5N8 and forty-three H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b HPAI viruses from wild birds in South Korea. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that HA gene of H5N1 viruses was divided into two genetically distinct groups (N1.G1 and N1.G2). Bayesian phylodynamic analysis demonstrated that wild birds play a vital role in viral transmission and long-term maintenance. We identified five genotypes (N1.G1.1, N1.G2, N1.G2.1, N1.G2.2, and N1.G2.2.1) having distinct gene segment constellations most probably produced by reassortments with low-pathogenic avian influenza viruses. Our results suggest that clade 2.3.4.4b persists in wild birds for a long time, causing continuous outbreaks, compared with previous clades of H5 HPAI viruses. Our study emphasizes the need for enhancing control measures in response to the changing viral epidemiology.

Synchrony of Bird Migration with Global Dispersal of Avian Influenza Reveals Exposed Bird Orders

Highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) A H5, particularly clade 2.3.4.4, has caused worldwide outbreaks in domestic poultry, occasional spillover to humans, and increasing deaths of diverse species of wild birds since 2014. Wild bird migration is currently acknowledged as an important ecological process contributing to the global dispersal of HPAIV H5. However, this mechanism has not been quantified using bird movement data from different species, and the timing and location of exposure of different species is unclear. We sought to explore these questions through phylodynamic analyses based on empirical data of bird movement tracking and virus genome sequences of clade 2.3.4.4 and 2.3.2.1. First, we demonstrate that seasonal bird migration can explain salient features of the global dispersal of clade 2.3.4.4. Second, we detect synchrony between the seasonality of bird annual cycle phases and virus lineage movements. We reveal the differing exposed bird orders at geographical origins and destinations of HPAIV H5 clade 2.3.4.4 lineage movements, including relatively under-discussed orders. Our study provides a phylodynamic framework that links the bird movement ecology and genomic epidemiology of avian influenza; it highlights the importance of integrating bird behavior and life history in avian influenza studies.

Immunogenicity of inactivated H5 avian influenza vaccine used in commercial laying pullet in Tehran province

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) is a viral disease caused by some H5 and H7 subtypes of influenza virus type A in most species of birds, especially poultry. HPAI viruses are amongst the most challenging viruses that threaten both human and animal health. Consequently, various strategies such as the use of vaccines have been proposed to control the disease. After a catastrophic pandemic and the failure of conventional methods (elimination and extermination) in Iran, multiple vaccines has been used to control the disease. This study investigates the immunogenicity of two recombinant inactivated commercial vaccines of H5N1 and H5N3 subtypes in laying pullet flocks in Tehran Province, Iran. From 32 halls in 6 breeding units of laying pullets, 3200 sera and 800 tracheal and cloacal swabs were collected. After collecting the samples, Serum neutralisation (SN) and hemagglutination inhibition (HI) tests were conducted on sera to determine the serum titers of H5 specific antibody obtained from vaccine inoculation in three steps: before, after first vaccination and after the second vaccination (booster). SN and HI tests were carried out by the alpha and beta methods on the pooled samples by the vaccine type (as antigen for HI and SN), and the results were compared. The PCR was performed on the tracheal and cloacal swab samples to possibly detect the HA (H5)virus in the studied flocks. The HI test results showed that both vaccines had a Serum antibody titre above 5 (log2) after two vaccination rounds, indicating a desirable immunogenic response. The SN test results also showed a neutralisation index above 104.5 for both vaccines, indicating more than 50% reduction in antigenicity of the virus. The PCR results were negative. This study was the first investigation of immunogenicity following two-time vaccination against H5 subtype vaccines in Iranian poultry flocks, indicated suitable antibody titer against the influenza virus in vaccinated flocks.

High pathogenicity avian influenza A (H5N1) clade 2.3.4.4b virus infection in a captive Tibetan black bear (Ursus thibetanus): investigations based on paraffin-embedded tissues, France, 2022.

Avian influenza viruses are able to cross the species barrier between birds and mammals because of their high genetic diversity and mutation rate. Using formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded tissues, we were able to investigate a Tibetan black bear's infection by a high pathogenicity H5N1 avian influenza virus at the molecular, phylogenetic, and histological levels. Our results highlight the importance of virological surveillance programs in mammals and the importance of raising awareness among veterinarians and zookeepers of the clinical presentations associated with H5Nx virus infection in mammals.

Evolution and Spread of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza A(H5N1) Clade 2.3.4.4b Virus in Wild Birds, South Korea, 2022-2023.

During October 2022-March 2023, highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) A(H5N1) clade 2.3.4.4b virus caused outbreaks in South Korea, including 174 cases in wild birds. To understand the origin and role of wild birds in the evolution and spread of HPAI viruses, we sequenced 113 HPAI isolates from wild birds and performed phylogenetic analysis. We identified 16 different genotypes, indicating extensive genetic reassortment with viruses in wild birds. Phylodynamic analysis showed that the viruses were most likely introduced to the southern Gyeonggi-do/northern Chungcheongnam-do area through whooper swans (Cygnus cygnus) and spread southward. Cross-species transmission occurred between various wild bird species, including waterfowl and raptors, resulting in the persistence of HPAI in wild bird populations and further geographic spread as these birds migrated throughout South Korea. Enhanced genomic surveillance was an integral part of the HPAI outbreak response, aiding in timely understanding of the origin, evolution, and spread of the virus.

Transmission dynamics and pathogenesis differ between pheasants and partridges infected with clade 2.3.4.4b H5N8 and H5N1 high-pathogenicity avian influenza viruses.

During the UK 2020-2021 epizootic of H5Nx clade 2.3.4.4b high-pathogenicity avian influenza viruses (HPAIVs), high mortality occurred during incursions in commercially farmed common pheasants (Phasianus colchicus). Two pheasant farms, affected separately by H5N8 and H5N1 subtypes, included adjacently housed red-legged partridges (Alectoris rufa), which appeared to be unaffected. Despite extensive ongoing epizootics, H5Nx HPAIV partridge outbreaks were not reported during 2020-2021 and 2021-2022 in the UK, so it is postulated that partridges are more resistant to HPAIV infection than other gamebirds. To assess this, pathogenesis and both intra- and inter-species transmission of UK pheasant-origin H5N8-2021 and H5N1-2021 HPAIVs were investigated. Onward transmission to chickens was also assessed to better understand the risk of spread from gamebirds to other commercial poultry sectors. A lower infectious dose was required to infect pheasants with H5N8-2021 compared to H5N1-2021. However, HPAIV systemic dissemination to multiple organs within pheasants was more rapid following infection with H5N1-2021 than H5N8-2021, with the former attaining generally higher viral RNA levels in tissues. Intraspecies transmission to contact pheasants was successful for both viruses and associated with viral environmental contamination, while interspecies transmission to a first chicken-contact group was also efficient. However, further onward transmission to additional chicken contacts was only achieved with H5N1-2021. Intra-partridge transmission was only successful when high-dose H5N1-2021 was administered, while partridges inoculated with H5N8-2021 failed to shed and transmit, although extensive tissue tropism was observed for both viruses. Mortalities among infected partridges featured a longer incubation period compared to that in pheasants, for both viruses. Therefore, the susceptibility of different gamebird species and pathogenicity outcomes to the ongoing H5Nx clade 2.3.4.4b HPAIVs varies, but pheasants represent a greater likelihood of H5Nx HPAIV introduction into galliforme poultry settings. Consequently, viral maintenance within gamebird populations and risks to poultry species warrant enhanced investigation.

Genetic Analysis of H5N1 High-Pathogenicity Avian Influenza Virus following a Mass Mortality Event in Wild Geese on the Solway Firth.

The United Kingdom (UK) and Europe have seen successive outbreaks of H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b high-pathogenicity avian influenza virus (HPAIV) since 2020 peaking in the autumn/winter periods. During the 2021/22 season, a mass die-off event of Svalbard Barnacle Geese (Branta leucopsis) was observed on the Solway Firth, a body of water on the west coast border between England and Scotland. This area is used annually by Barnacle Geese to over-winter, before returning to Svalbard to breed. Following initial identification of HPAIV in a Barnacle Goose on 8 November 2021, up to 32% of the total Barnacle Goose population may have succumbed to disease by the end of March 2022, along with other wild bird species in the area. Potential adaptation of the HPAIV to the Barnacle Goose population within this event was evaluated. Whole-genome sequencing of thirty-three HPAIV isolates from wild bird species demonstrated that there had been two distinct incursions of the virus, but the two viruses had remained genetically stable within the population, whilst viruses from infected wild birds were closely related to those from poultry cases occurring in the same region. Analysis of sera from the following year demonstrated that a high percentage (76%) of returning birds had developed antibodies to H5 AIV. This study demonstrates genetic stability of this strain of HPAIV in wild Anseriformes, and that, at the population scale, whilst there is a significant impact on survival, a high proportion of birds recover following infection.

New Patterns for Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza and Adjustment of Prevention, Control and Surveillance Strategies: The Example of France.

From 2020 up to summer 2023, there was a substantial change in the situation concerning the high pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus in Europe. This change concerned mainly virus circulation within wildlife, both in wild birds and wild mammals. It involved the seasonality of HPAI detections, the species affected, excess mortality events, and the apparent increased level of contamination in wild birds. The knock-on effect concerned new impacts and challenges for the poultry sector, which is affected by repeated annual waves of HPAI arriving with wild migratory birds and by risks due to viral circulation within resident wild birds across the year. Indeed, exceeding expectations, new poultry sectors and production areas have been affected during the recent HPAI seasons in France. The HPAI virus strains involved also generate considerable concern about human health because of enhanced risks of species barrier crossing. In this article, we present these changes in detail, along with the required adjustment of prevention, control, and surveillance strategies, focusing specifically on the situation in France.

The role of PB1-F2 in adaptation of high pathogenicity avian influenza virus H7N7 in chickens

Avian influenza viruses (AIV) of the H7N7 subtype are enzootic in the wild bird reservoir in Europe, cause infections in poultry, and have sporadically infected humans. The non-structural protein PB1-F2 is encoded in a second open frame in the polymerase segment PB1 and its sequence varies with the host of origin. While mammalian isolates predominantly carry truncated forms, avian isolates typically express full-length PB1-F2. PB1-F2 is a virulence factor of influenza viruses in mammals. It modulates the host immune response, causing immunopathology and increases pro-inflammatory responses. The role of full-length PB1-F2 in IAV pathogenesis as well as its impact on virus adaptation and virulence in poultry remains enigmatic. Here, we characterised recombinant high pathogenicity AIV (HPAIV) H7N7 expressing or lacking PB1-F2 in vitro and in vivo in chickens. In vitro, full-length PB1-F2 modulated viability of infected chicken fibroblasts by limiting apoptosis. In chickens, PB1-F2 promoted gastrointestinal tropism, as demonstrated by enhanced viral replication in the gut and increased cloacal shedding. PB1-F2’s effects on cellular immunity however were marginal. Overall, chickens infected with full-length PB1-F2 virus survived for shorter periods, indicating that PB1-F2 is also a virulence factor in bird-adapted viruses.

Spatiotemporal patterns of low and highly pathogenic avian influenza virus prevalence in murres in Canada from 2007 to 2022—a case study for wildlife viral monitoring

Migratory seabirds move across ocean basins and are one of the primary reservoirs of low pathogenic avian influenza virus (LPAIV). This includes the millions of thick-billed murres ( Uria lomvia) and common murres ( Uria aalge) that are distributed across northern hemisphere oceans. In response to increasingly frequent detections of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) in Europe in 2020–2021, avian influenza virus (AIV) monitoring in wildlife has increased. We compiled data from murres tested for AIV in Canada between 2007 and 2022 to quantify spatiotemporal variation in the prevalence of LPAIV and HPAIV in these birds. No HPAIV was detected in murres prior to 2022, but HPAIV was present in 46% of both live/harvested and found dead murres in the northwestern Atlantic in 2022 with prevalence peaking at 63% among live birds in the summer. In the eastern Canadian Arctic, HPAIV prevalence in 2022 was <1% while LPAIV prevalence was 21%, which was significantly higher than previous sampling years. Power analyses suggest approximately 100 samples from breeding murres should be collected annually per colony or region to detect moderate changes in HPAIV prevalence. These analyses inform robust monitoring of viruses in wildlife, with implications for conservation, harvest management, and public health.

Modeling transmission of avian influenza viruses at the human-animal-environment interface in Cuba.

The increasing geographical spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses (HPAIVs) is of global concern due to the underlying zoonotic and pandemic potential of the virus and its economic impact. An integrated One Health model was developed to estimate the likelihood of Avian Influenza (AI) introduction and transmission in Cuba, which will help inform and strengthen risk-based surveillance activities. The spatial resolution used for the model was the smallest administrative district ("Consejo Popular"). The model was parameterised for transmission from wild birds to poultry and pigs (commercial and backyard) and then to humans. The model includes parameters such as risk factors for the introduction and transmission of AI into Cuba, animal and human population densities; contact intensity and a transmission parameter (β). Areas with a higher risk of AI transmission were identified for each species and type of production system. Some variability was observed in the distribution of areas estimated to have a higher probability of AI introduction and transmission. In particular, the south-western and eastern regions of Cuba were highlighted as areas with the highest risk of transmission. These results are potentially useful for refining existing criteria for the selection of farms for active surveillance, which could improve the ability to detect positive cases. The model results could contribute to the design of an integrated One Health risk-based surveillance system for AI in Cuba. In addition, the model identified geographical regions of particular importance where resources could be targeted to strengthen biosecurity and early warning surveillance.