High-intensity Conflict Research Articles

Гібридна агресія Росії як інструмент геополітичного впливу на африканські країни: висновки для України

Experts in the field of international conflicts focus on a threatening trend - increasing levels of aggression in Europe. Russia has been involved in all the high-intensity conflicts that have taken place in the region since the 2000s – the wars in Ukraine and Georgia, the limited wars in Dagestan, Ingushetia and Chechnya, and the content of the conflict in Moldova. The Crimean crisis and aggression in Donbas have become a painful reaction to Russia's inability to lead the world leadership and structure a new world order. Modern foreign policy of the Russian Federation is based on the Soviet understanding of the geopolitical structure of the world in general and the European region in particular. Russia is making every effort to consolidate itself as a center of power on a continental scale and dreams of regaining the geopolitical weight of the Soviet era. The article analyzes the causes and consequences of the use of hybrid aggression, identifies the complexity of using military-political, economic, informational and international tools to influence the formation of the world order. The example of Russian aggression in the African region is considered and the ways of counteracting Russian aggression are offered to Ukraine.

The Heterogeneous Effects of Conflict on Education: A Spatial Analysis in Sub-Saharan Africa

In this paper, we identify under which conditions and to what extent armed conflicts harm the long-run educational attainment of children in rural Sub-Saharan Africa. By combining 66 rounds of DHS surveys with geo-coded conflict information, our study contextualizes the findings of a series of country-specific case studies on the effects of conflict on education, and provides evidence on the mechanisms through which these effects occur. Our main identification strategy compares educational losses of youth living within the same household, while also controlling for local weather shocks and countrywide dynamics in education. The effects of conflict on education are strongly context dependent. High-intensity conflicts reduce local educational attainment, on average, although this effect becomes insignificant in strong autocracies. By contrast, education is generally unaffected by localized low-intensity conflict. Human capital loss due to conflict is most severely felt in weak states, and in response to non-state based conflicts, highlighting the importance of state capacity in mediating the educational costs of local conflicts.

School Feeding or General Food Distribution? Quasi-Experimental Evidence on the Educational Impacts of Emergency Food Assistance during Conflict in Mali

This study relies on a unique precrisis baseline and five-year follow-up to investigate the effects of emergency school feeding and generalised food distribution (GFD) on children’s schooling during conflict in Mali. It estimates programme impact on child enrolment, absenteeism, and attainment by using a difference in differences weighted estimator. School feeding led to increases in enrolment by 10 percentage points and to around an additional half-year of completed schooling. Attendance among boys in households receiving GFD, however, declined by about 20 per cent relative to the comparison group. Disaggregating by conflict intensity showed that receipt of any food assistance led to a rise in enrolment mostly in high-intensity conflict areas and that the negative effects of GFD on attendance were also concentrated in the most affected areas. School feeding mostly raised attainment among children in areas not in the immediate vicinity of conflict. Programme receipt triggered adjustments in child labour. School feeding led to lower participation and time spent in work among girls, while GFD raised children’s labour, particularly among boys. The educational implications of food assistance should be considered in planning humanitarian responses to bridge the gap between emergency assistance and development by promoting children’s education.

Women and children living in areas of armed conflict in Africa: a geospatial analysis of mortality and orphanhood

SummaryBackgroundThe population effects of armed conflict on non-combatant vulnerable populations are incompletely understood. We aimed to study the effects of conflict on mortality among women of childbearing age (15–49 years) and on orphanhood among children younger than 15 years in Africa.MethodsWe tested the extent to which mortality among women aged 15–49 years, and orphanhood among children younger than 15 years, increased in response to nearby armed conflict in Africa. Data on location, timing, and intensity of armed conflicts were obtained from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program, and data on the location, timing, and outcomes of women and children from Demographic and Health Surveys done in 35 African countries from 1990 to 2016. Mortality among women was obtained from sibling survival data. We used cluster-area fixed-effects regression models to compare survival of women during periods of nearby conflict (within 50 km) to survival of women in the same area during times without conflict. We used similar methods to examine the extent to which children living near armed conflicts are at increased risk of becoming orphans. We examined the effects of varying conflict intensity using number of direct battle deaths and duration of consecutive conflict exposure.FindingsWe analysed data on 1 629 352 women (19 286 387 person-years), of which 103 011 (6·3%) died (534·1 deaths per 100 000 women-years), and 2 354 041 children younger than 15 years, of which 204 276 (8·7%) had lost a parent. On average, conflict within 50 km increased women's mortality by 112 deaths per 100 000 person-years (95% CI 97–128; a 21% increase above baseline), and the probability that a child has lost at least one parent by 6·0% (95% CI 3–8). This effect was driven by high-intensity conflicts: exposure to the highest (tenth) decile conflict in terms of conflict-related deaths increased the probability of female mortality by 202% (187–218) and increased the likelihood of orphanhood by 42% compared with a conflict-free period. Among the conflict-attributed deaths, 10% were due to maternal mortality.InterpretationAfrican women of childbearing age are at a substantially increased risk of death from nearby high-intensity armed conflicts. Children exposed to conflict are analogously at increased risk of becoming orphans. This work fills gaps in literature on the harmful effects of armed conflict on non-combatants and highlights the need for humanitarian interventions to protect vulnerable populations.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation to the BRANCH Consortium.

Aeromedical Evacuations Within the French Armed Forces: Analysis of 2,129 Patients.

The doctrine of medical support during French military operations is based on a triptych: forward medical stabilization, forward damage control surgery, and early strategic aeromedical evacuation (Strategic-AE). The aim of this study was to describe the last piece, the evacuation process of the French Strategic-AE. We conducted a retrospective cohort analysis using patient records from 2015 to 2017. All French service members requiring an air evacuation from a foreign country to a homeland medical facility were included. Data collected included age, medical diagnosis, priority categorization, boarding location, distance from Paris, type of plane and flight, medical team composition, timeline, and dispatch at arrival. We analyzed 2,129 patients evacuated from 71 countries, most from Africa (1,256), the Middle East (382), and South America (175). Most patients (1,958) were not severely injured, although some considered priority (103) or urgent (68). Diagnoses included disease (48.6%), nonbattle injuries (43%), battle stress (5.3%), and battle injuries (3%). 246 Strategic-AE used medical teams in flight, 136 of them in a dedicated Falcon aircraft. The main etiologies for those evacuations were battle injuries (24%), cardiovascular (15.4%), infections (8%), and neurologic (7.3%). The median time of management for urgent patients was about 16hours but longer for priority patients (26hours). Once in France, 1,146 patients were admitted to a surgery department and 96 to an intensive care unit. This is the first study to analyze the French Strategic-AE system, which is doctrinally unique when compared to its North Atlantic Treaty Organization allies. North Atlantic Treaty Organization allies favor care in the theatre in place of the French early Strategic-AE. However, in the event of a high intensity conflict, a combination of these two doctrines could be useful.

The Effect of Armed Conflict on Savings Rates: International Evidence from 1980 to 2015

Abstract Economic growth theory highlights the importance of saving rates to explain the long-run economic performance of economies. While economic theory has provided an analytical and empirical framework to understand the determinants of saving rates, one of the limitations is that it excludes from the analysis the potential effects of armed conflict and political instability, although it has been demonstrated that such situations can affect intertemporal preferences in terms of consumption and saving. Using a sample of 55 countries with/without conflict from 1980 to 2015, we analyze whether aggregate savings rates are negatively correlated with the existence, intensity, and duration of an armed conflict. The results indicate that countries that have suffered some type of conflict exhibit a saving rate 2.7% lower on average than the rate exhibited by countries that have not suffered such conflict. Additionally, if there is a high-intensity conflict, the saving rates decreases 2.5% more relative to countries that experience low-intensity conflict. Finally, we found a nonlinear relationship between saving rates and conflict duration, suggesting that the impact of conflict on savings decreases with time. These results extend the literature on the effects of armed conflicts on the long-run economic growth.

Hoping for the best, preparing for the worst

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to propose that a more optimal regulatory focus in conflict reflects a mix of promotion and prevention considerations because conflict often elicits needs for promoting well-being as well as needs for preventing threats to security and interests. Two studies using distinct methodologies tested the hypothesis that social conflict is associated with better outcomes when the parties construe the conflict with a regulatory focus that reflects a combination of both promotion and prevention orientations. Design/methodology/approachStudy 1 was an experiment that framed the same low-intensity conflict scenario as either prevention- or promotion-focused, or as both. In Study 2, we mouse-coded stream-of-thought accounts of participants’ actual ongoing high-intensity conflicts for time spent in both promotion and prevention focus. FindingsIn Study 1, the combined framing resulted in greater satisfaction with expected conflict outcomes and goal attainment than did either prevention or promotion framing alone. However, a promotion frame alone was associated with greater process and relationship satisfaction. These results were replicated in Study 2. Originality/valuePrior research on regulatory focus has emphasized the benefits of a promotion focus over prevention when managing conflict. The present research offers new insight into how these seemingly opposing motives can operate in tandem to increase conflict satisfaction. Thus, this research illustrates the value of moving beyond dichotomized motivational distinctions in conflict research, to understand the dynamic interplay of how these distinctions may be navigated in concert for more effective conflict engagement. It also illustrates the value of mouse-coding methods for capturing the dynamic interplay of motives as they rise and fall in salience over time.

A probabilistic approach to measure aircraft conflict severity considering wind forecast uncertainty

An approach to statistically quantify the severity of aircraft conflicts subject to wind forecast uncertainty is presented. The conflicts are characterized by two indicators: conflict intensity and conflict probability, and the wind uncertainty is derived from Ensemble Weather Forecasts. The wind components are modeled as random variables, and are assumed to be distributed as four-parameter beta distributions. The conflict intensity is measured by the minimum distance between the aircraft, and the probability of conflict is obtained in terms of the probability density function of the minimum distance, which is obtained from the probability density functions of the wind components using the Probabilistic Transformation Method. The case of two en-route aircraft flying at constant altitude and subject to the same random wind is considered. Results are presented for different traffic configurations and a given wind forecast; in particular, a low-intensity and a high-intensity conflict scenarios are analyzed in detail. The results show that the conflict severity can be statistically quantified for any given scenario. The results are validated using the Monte Carlo method and a linear approximation. The applicability of the methodology presented is discussed. The context for this work is the development of decision support tools for conflict detection that integrate weather uncertainty information.

Writing Stars in the Sky or Decentring the Glocal Discourse of the ‘War(S) on Terror’ through Narratives of Those Displaced

ABSTRACTInscribing names into the firmament of symbolic orders is crucial argues Rancière who traces the symbolic distribution of bodies into those that ‘one sees’ and those that ‘one does not see’. The issue of accounted visibility-cum-audibility does not only lie within the specific conflict configuration but also within the geopolitical dynamics of the ‘border’ as well as ‘body-borders’ within individuals and communities concerned. One such case can be found at the borderlands of Pakistan with Afghanistan, of the trans-local post-9/11 ‘Wars on Terror’ as well as at the borderlands of Pakistan itself, subjected to invisibility and rumbling noises of conflict and displacement through hegemonic centring of discourses and exclusionary, violent practices of the ‘Wars on Terror’. This article is a collaborative work on experiences of conflict-induced displacement, political violence and narratives of everyday life negotiations thereof, based on field research and interviews (individual as well as group ones) conducted in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and around the capital of Islamabad with those internally displaced from North Waziristan, South Waziristan and Kurram Agencies. The aim is to juxtapose vociferous and deliberate hegemonic practices of invisibility and de-solidarisation in public discourses and counter-insurgency interventions vis-a-vis certain marginalised communities and citizens with the latter’s own narratives about their experiences and understandings of state-society relations, relevant stakeholders, public discourses and labelling practices used (such as ‘polio threat’ and ‘terrorist’). We attempt to trace and map how people experience and negotiate political violence, (protracted) conflict-induced displacement and the paucity of governance service provisions in a wider context of contested nation-building and transnational high-intensity conflict. Given repeated, cyclic and/or protracted experiences of displacement, flight and migration, combined with emerging narratives of marginalisation, exploitation and sociopolitical exclusion, one needs to ask what are the consequences of such transnational conflict and displacement configurations for individual as well as collective social resilience, withstanding ideological manipulation and cooptation into the conflict theatre, as well as for the capacity to develop and implement (alternative and sustainable) livelihoods in the different spaces one has to move in as an individual as well as a family-cum-community member in times of protracted conflict and displacement.

Secondary transfer effect of positive and negative online contact between groups involved in high-intensity conflict

Israeli Jews and Palestinians are involved in a high-intensity, overt, violent conflict, in which Israeli Palestinians can be considered a mediating group, which shares a citizenship with Israeli Jews and an ethnicity with non-Israeli Palestinians. The current research examines (1) the primary effects of online contact between Israeli Jews and Israeli Palestinians on attitudes towards the Israeli Palestinians; (2) the Secondary Transfer Effect (STE) of online contact between Israeli Jews and Israeli Palestinians on attitudes of the former toward non-Israeli Palestinians.The study was conducted through an online survey of 450 Israeli Jews aged 18–35. It revealed direct positive effect of online contact with Israeli Palestinians on attitudes towards them, if this contact was defined by respondents as positive, and negative effect if the contact was defined as negative. We found evidence of STE of online contact with Israeli Palestinians (primary out-group) on attitudes toward non-Israeli Palestinians (secondary out-group) for positive contact, but no evidence of STE was found when the contact was negative. The relationship between the frequency of online positive contact with the primary out-group and attitudes toward the secondary outgroup was fully mediated by attitudes toward the primary, encountered out-group, namely, via a process of attitude generalization.This paper adds to a growing body of research on STEs of intergroup contact considering a previously unexplored STE of positive and negative online contact. The study revealed that the potential of Internet and online contacts might be used to increase solidarity and understanding within and between nations.

HEALTH AND PEACE: GLOBAL, REGIONAL AND LOCAL PERSPECTIVE

HEALTH AND PEACE: GLOBAL, REGIONAL AND LOCAL PERSPECTIVE

Polarization, foreign military intervention, and civil conflict

This paper tests whether foreign military intervention helps explain conflict by intensifying polarization. Building on the seminal papers of Montalvo and Reynal-Querol (2005) and Esteban and Ray (2011) and using a panel for 138 countries from 1960 to 2005, we confirm that ethnic polarization is a robust predictor of civil war. However, we also find that religious polarization is positively and significantly associated with civil conflict in the presence of foreign military intervention of non-humanitarian and non-neutral nature in the Middle East and North Africa, but not in the rest of the world. This type of intervention intensifies religious polarization through its effect on alienation, increasing the risk of high intensity conflict. The results provide an explanation for the high incidence of civil conflict in the Middle East and North Africa despite moderate polarization levels, obtained using the Reynal-Querol (2002) index, which is time-invariant and factors in only identity concerns.

The Evolution of Canada's PME after Afghanistan: From Counterinsurgency Back to High-Intensity Conflict

The Evolution of Canada's PME after Afghanistan: From Counterinsurgency Back to High-Intensity Conflict

The Politics of Norm Glocalisation: Limits in Applying r2p to Protecting Children

Two-thirds of the global child population lives in countries affected by violent and high-intensity conflict. International humanitarian law provides broad protection for children in the event of armed conflict. However, as the 2017 report of the un Secretary-General on children and armed conflict stresses, the scale and severity of grave violations has increased. This paper addresses the central puzzle of why the existing legal and normative frameworks of child protection have achieved so little, in addressing the marginalisation and disempowerment of children in armed conflict. We argue that the contemporary application of r2p in protecting children will be limited unless at least two fundamental challenges are met: (a) taming power politics; and (b) squaring inherent contradictions between the global r2p norm and national and regional normative frameworks of child protection. We highlight the case of Japan to illustrate the limits of the contemporary application of r2p in protecting children.

Conflict Intensity in African Water Basins: Water Stress and the Effectiveness of Water Management Strategies

Access to cross-border water sources in the African regions of the Nile River, Zambezi River, and Lake Turkana Basins becomes less certain as global population, human consumption, and climate change increase. Uncertainty during periods of high demand for water in agro-dependent economies creates circumstances of water stress, where social stability is low as stakeholders compete over scarce water sources. Longstanding traditions of political power, such as colonial rule and the status of regional superpowers, reinforce the unequal resource distribution. All three regions encounter water stress in the form of floods or droughts. They rely on dam projects that modify water distribution and basin agreements that reallocate political power to manage stress. The basins vary, however, in conflict intensity and effectiveness of water management strategies. The Nile River Basin exhibits low-intensity conflict and has institutionalized collaborative management strategies; the Zambezi River Basin demonstrates medium-intensity conflict with theoretically collaborative initiatives that fall short in practice; the Lake Turkana Basin exemplifies high-intensity conflict, lacking collaborative agreements. In order to address the discrepancy in outcomes, this study asks: what factors contribute to the intensity of conflict surrounding water stress? And, to what extent are water management practices effective in promoting cooperation and preventing conflict? The study concludes that the most intense conflicts occur in rural localities, where social instability is high and resource distribution is uneven. Collaborative agreements and international involvement in water management initiatives increase social stability and decrease conflict intensity by institutionalizing equitable distribution of water in a changing environment.

Conflict Intensity in African Water Basins: Water Stress and the Effectiveness of Water Management Strategies

Access to cross-border water sources in the African regions of the Nile River, Zambezi River, and Lake Turkana Basins becomes less certain as global population, human consumption, and climate change increase. Uncertainty during periods of high demand for water in agro-dependent economies creates circumstances of water stress, where social stability is low as stakeholders compete over scarce water sources. Longstanding traditions of political power, such as colonial rule and the status of regional superpowers, reinforce the unequal resource distribution. All three regions encounter water stress in the form of floods or droughts. They rely on dam projects that modify water distribution and basin agreements that reallocate political power to manage stress. The basins vary, however, in conflict intensity and effectiveness of water management strategies. The Nile River Basin exhibits low-intensity conflict and has institutionalized collaborative management strategies; the Zambezi River Basin demonstrates medium-intensity conflict with theoretically collaborative initiatives that fall short in practice; the Lake Turkana Basin exemplifies high-intensity conflict, lacking collaborative agreements. In order to address the discrepancy in outcomes, this study asks: what factors contribute to the intensity of conflict surrounding water stress? And, to what extent are water management practices effective in promoting cooperation and preventing conflict? The study concludes that the most intense conflicts occur in rural localities, where social instability is high and resource distribution is uneven. Collaborative agreements and international involvement in water management initiatives increase social stability and decrease conflict intensity by institutionalizing equitable distribution of water in a changing environment.

Processes of conflict de-escalation in Madagascar (1947–1996).

Episodes of conflict ranging from situations of political tension to high-intensity conflicts have been occurring in Madagascar from the colonial period to the present day. This paper argues that (a) configurations of conditions are building up de-escalation processes in Madagascar, and each element in the configurations in which conflict de-escalation occurs interacts, coconstructs, and influences each other; (b) peace and conflict coexist throughout de-escalation processes, reminding us about the multileveled nature of peace; and (c) conflict transformation is key to explaining conflict de-escalation given that building peace requires a long process, especially when external and internal forces are in constant friction. Qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) allows for analyses of the contexts and parts of the mechanism behind de-escalation: (a) conflict dimensions (cultural, sociodemographic and economic, political and global external), (b) the degree of influence of the opposing parties as well as factions within each party and their repertoires of action, (c) the framing of the conflicts by these parties, (d) the boundary construction of the self/the other, and (e) accommodation policies. Metanarratives and local narratives influence/are influenced by these contexts and parts of the mechanism.

Health system functionality in a low-income country in the midst of conflict: the case of Yemen.

Although the literature on effects of armed conflict on population health is extensive, detailed assessments of effects on public health 'systems' are few. This article aims to help address this deficit through the medium of a case study on Yemen, describing health system and health outcome performance prior to the internationalisation of the conflict there in March 2015, before assessing the impact of war on health system functionality since that time. Review of peer- and non-peer reviewed literature from 2005 to 2016 from academic sources, multilateral organizations, donors and governmental and non-governmental organizations, augmented by secondary data analysis. Despite significant health system weaknesses and structural vulnerabilities pre-conflict, there were important improvements in selected health outcome measures in Yemen up to early 2015 (life expectancy, and infant and maternal mortality, e.g.), partly driven by a fragile health sector that was heavily reliant on out-of-pocket expenditure, and hampered by weak service penetration especially in rural areas. High intensity conflict has resulted in rising mortality and injury rates since March 2015, the first decline in life expectancy and increase in child and maternal mortality in Yemen for some years, and worsening levels of malnutrition. Service delivery has become increasingly challenging in the context of a funding crisis, destruction of health facilities, widespread shortages of essential medicines and equipment across the country, and governance fragmentation. Conflict in Yemen has resulted in humanitarian disaster on a wide scale in a short period of time, and crippled an already weak health system. Important areas of uncertainty remain, however, including the scale of health worker flight, and the extent to which alternative providers have stepped in to fill widening service gaps as the conflict has unfolded. Planning for longer-term health system reconstruction should begin as soon as possible.

Below knee long stump guillotine amputation for mine blast injury foot: a safe need to do primary management in war zone: an experience in 18 cases over 10 months

Background:Somewhere in western sector, high intensity conflict zone, we had to manage a large number of battle causalities, especially gunshot wound abdomen, and mine blast injury foot. In our collective experience of working in battle strife- zone, we realized that the best and the least a surgical team can do is to execute an old fashioned ‘long stump’ below knee (BK) guillotine amputation, achieve perfect hemostasis, immobilize the limb and rapidly transport the patient to higher surgical centre. This increase in the magnitude of mine blast injuries prompted us to highlight the problem and its management.Methods: We analyzed 18 cases of anti- personnel mine blast injury foot over a 10 months period 2000 to 2001. We have managed 18 mine blast feet in “staged- manner. Stage I- “on battle-field” long stump BK guillotine amputation, perfect hemostasis, wound toileting and stump immobilization. Stage II - at a higher surgical centre elsewhere, the patient underwent a planned BK, prosthetic compatible, posterior myo-cutaneous flap covered stump construction and stage III - On recovery the patient with healed BK stump was transferred to limb prosthesis centre where tailor made BK prosthesis was provided and patient rehabilitated.Results:Various body regions were involved in the mine blast injuries, but the main brunt was borne by feet and legs followed by multiple body regions due to splinters. 18 patients underwent below knee (BK) amputation while 01patient required bilateral BK amputations. The initial aggressive BK Guillotine amputation saved the limb and life of all patients. Few had stump related self-limiting complications. Some had post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Almost all of them had high degree of BK prosthesis acceptance.Conclusions:Mine blast causes extensive injuries and psychological trauma. Management is needed urgently, surgery is difficult, and amputation is often inevitable. In our experience on 18 cases this “safe-need-to-do” staged management of mine blast injury foot, in high conflict area, was found to be least time consuming, less precious resource draining and hardly manpower straining strategy.

Leadership Challenges for Joint Force Commanders during the Transition from a High-intensity to a Low-intensity Conflict

A Joint Force Commander (JFC) leading military joint operations faces several complex challenges. The purpose of this article is to investigate some of the challenges a Joint Force Commander may face when a conflict changes character from being a high-intensity conflict to becoming a low-intensity conflict. Sources of evidence: In connection with command and control, especially issues concerning different cultures and the understanding of this can be the biggest challenge for a Joint Force Commander during the transition to a low intensity conflict as a peace support operation setting. Main argument: Being able to anticipate some of these problems will be essential to a Joint Force Commander's ability to exercise leadership and command and control. Conclusions: Furthermore, target selection and information operations have proven to be two factors that will have a greater importance in the planning and conduct of operations during a transition from a high-intensity conflict to a low-intensity conflict.