High-intensity Conflict Research Articles

Contested water- and miningscapes – Explaining the high intensity of water and mining conflicts in a meta-study

Conflicts around access to, control over, and quality of water accompany mining projects all over the globe. Often, they are associated with high intensity as means of contestation range from verbal complaints to protest marches, civil disobedience and violent confrontations. While numerous case studies on water-related mining conflicts exist, scholarship that synthesizes insights remains rare. In order to better understand the dynamics that lead to the escalation of conflicts and to further theory development on the role of, e.g., political economic contexts, hydro-social conditions and social relationships, a systematic overview of the existing empirical evidence is needed.Our meta-study of 53 water and mining conflicts identifies several combinations of conditions that are tied to large-scale mobilization and the use of civil disobedience measures, sabotage or hunger strikes by environmental defenders. As our results show, raised stakes and ontological differences, e.g. in situations where water is essential for livelihoods and cultural and spiritual practices, play a role, in particular when coupled with a lack of meaningful participation. Discursive or physical coercion by the state or by private security forces also intensify mobilization rather than containing it while the role of international NGOs is more ambiguous. To identify explanatory scenarios, we conducted a two-step, fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) based on data collected in a systematic literature review of peer-reviewed articles and book chapters. Taking its data from published research, our study identifies a geographic bias towards Latin America in academic literature on water and mining conflicts and points out topical blind spots. By looking for conditions that are consistently associated with high-intensity conflicts, it also provides insights on priority areas of engagement for community leaders, policy-makers, and private sector and civil society representatives seeking to avoid the escalation of conflicts.

Access to primary healthcare Services in Conflict-Affected Fragile States: a subnational descriptive analysis of educational and wealth disparities in Cameroon, Democratic Republic of Congo, Mali, and Nigeria

BackgroundMeasuring and improving equitable access to care is a necessity to achieve universal health coverage. Pre-pandemic estimates showed that most conflict-affected and fragile situations were off-track to meet the Sustainable Development Goals on health and equity by 2030. Yet, there is a paucity of studies examining health inequalities in these settings. This study addresses the literature gap by applying a conflict intensity lens to the analysis of disparities in access to essential Primary Health Care (PHC) services in four conflict-affected fragile states: Cameroon, Democratic Republic of Congo, Mali and Nigeria.MethodsFor each studied country, disparities in geographic and financial access to care were compared across education and wealth strata in areas with differing levels of conflict intensity. The Demographic Health Survey (DHS) and the Uppsala Conflict Data Program were the main sources of information on access to PHC and conflict events, respectively. To define conflict intensity, household clusters were linked to conflict events within a 50-km distance. A cut-off of more than two conflict-related deaths per 100,000 population was used to differentiate medium or high intensity conflict from no or low intensity conflict. We utilized three measures to assess inequalities: an absolute difference, a concentration index, and a multivariate logistic regression coefficient. Each disparity measure was compared based on the intensity of conflict the year the DHS data was collected.ResultsWe found that PHC access varied across subnational regions in the four countries studied; with more prevalent financial than geographic barriers to care. The magnitude of both educational and wealth disparities in access to care was higher with geographic proximity to medium or high intensity conflict. A higher magnitude of wealth rather than educational disparities was also likely to be observed in the four studied contexts. Meanwhile, only Nigeria showed statistically significant interaction between conflict intensity and educational disparities in access to care.ConclusionBoth educational and wealth disparities in access to PHC services can be exacerbated by geographic proximity to organized violence. This paper provides additional evidence that, despite limitations, household surveys can contribute to healthcare assessment in conflict-affected and fragile settings.

The effects of conflict type and conflict expression intensity on conflict management

PurposeThis paper aims to add to the current knowledge about conflict management by examining the relationships between conflict type, conflict expression intensity and the use of the conflict management approach.Design/methodology/approachThe authors test theory-based hypotheses using a field study of new product development teams in an interdisciplinary Masters program (Study 1) and an experimental vignette study (Study 2).FindingsResults show that people are more likely to respond to task conflict and conflicts expressed with less intensity using collectivistic conflict management approaches (i.e. problem-solving, compromising and yielding), and to relationship conflicts and conflicts expressed with higher intensity through forcing, an individualistic conflict management approach. Information acquisition and negative emotions experienced by team members mediate these relationships.Practical implicationsKnowing how the characteristics of the conflict (type and expression intensity) affect conflict management, managers can counteract the tendency to use dysfunctional, forcing conflict management approaches in response to high intensity conflicts, as well as to relationship conflicts and support the tendency to use collectivistic conflict management approaches in response to low intensity conflict, as well as task conflicts.Originality/valueThe authors examine an alternative to the prevailing view that conflict management serves as a moderator of the relationship between conflict and team outcomes. The research shows that conflict type and intensity of conflict expression influence the conflict management approach as a result of the information and emotion they evoke. The authors open avenues for future research on the complex and intriguing relationships between conflict characteristics and the conflict management approach.

Ethical considerations of disaster research in conflict-affected areas

PurposeDebates on the ethics of disaster and humanitarian studies concern unequal relations in research (among research institutes/researchers/stakeholders); the physical and psychological well-being of research participants and researchers; and the imposition of western methods, frameworks and epistemologies to the study of disasters. This paper focuses on everyday ethics: how they need to be translated throughout the everyday practices of research and how researchers can deal with the ethical dilemmas that inevitably occur.Design/methodology/approachThis paper analyses the process of addressing ethics-related dilemmas from the first author's experiences researching disaster governance in high-intensity conflict settings, in particular drawing from 4 to 6 months of fieldwork in South Sudan and Afghanistan. In addition, ethical issues around remote research are discussed, drawing on the example of research conducted in Yemen. It is based on the personal notes taken by the first author and on the experience of both authors translating guidelines for research in remote and hazardous areas into research practices.FindingsThe paper concerns translating ethics into the everyday practices of research planning, implementation and communication. It argues for the importance of adaptive research processes with space for continuous reflection in order to advance disaster studies based on (1) equitable collaboration; (2) participatory methodologies wherever possible; (3) safety and security for all involved; (4) ethical approaches of remote research and (5) responsible and inclusive research communication and research-uptake. Openness about gaps and limitations of ethical standards, discussions with peers about dilemmas and reporting on these in research outcomes should be embedded in everyday ethics.Originality/valueThe paper contributes to discussions on everyday ethics, where ethics are integral to the epistemologies and everyday practices of research.

Effects of Low-Intensity Conflicts on Farming Communities in Mindanao, Philippines

Low-intensity conflicts have often been afforded lesser importance than high-intensity conflicts. Yet, low-intensity conflicts can have impacts on the ability to farm, productivity, and income. We studied the effects of low-intensity conflicts on the farming communities in two conflict vulnerable areas in Mindanao, Southern Philippines. Following a review of the economic effects of conflict with a focus on Mindanao, we surveyed farmers in low-conflict areas to assess its impact on livelihood. In 2018, farmers in “peaceful” situation differed in income from those who are in “low-conflict” situations. The mean total household income for the “low conflict” (PHP8,360 or $US155) group was significantly lower by PHP13,060 ($US242) from the “peaceful” group (PHP24,433 or $US453). This findings suggest the need for further research regarding how villages resolve conflicts informally as a way of improve government-sponsored conflict resolution efforts.

The use of health facility data to assess the effects of armed conflicts on maternal and child health: experience from the Kivu, DR Congo

BackgroundIn conflict-affected settings, data on reproductive, maternal, newborn and child health (RMNCH) are often lacking for priority setting and timely decision-making. We aimed to describe the levels and trends in RMNCH indicators within Kivu provinces between 2015 and 2018, by linking conflict data with health facility (HF) data from the District Health Information System 2 (DHIS2).MethodsWe used data from the DHIS2 for the period 2015–2018, the 2014 Demographic and Health Survey, the 2018 Multiple Indicators Cluster Survey and the Uppsala Conflict Data Program. Health zones were categorised in low, moderate and high conflict intensity level, based on an annual conflict death rate. We additionally defined a monthly conflict death rate and a conflict event-days rate as measures of conflict intensity and insecurity. Outcomes were completion of four antenatal care visits, health facility deliveries, caesarean sections and pentavalent vaccine coverage. We assessed data quality and analyzed coverage and trends in RMNCH indicators graphically, by conflict categories and using HF data aggregated annually. We used a series of fixed-effect regression models to examine the potential dose-response effect of varying conflict intensity and insecurity on RMNCH.ResultsThe overall HF reporting was good, ranging between 83.3 and 93.2% and tending to be lower in health zones with high conflict intensity in 2016 and 2017 before converging in 2018. Despite the increasing number of conflict-affected health zones over time, more in North-Kivu than in South-Kivu, we could not identify any clear pattern of variation in RMNCH coverage both by conflict intensity and insecurity. North-Kivu province had consistently reported better RMNCH indicators than South-Kivu, despite being more affected by conflict. The Kivu as a whole recorded higher coverage than the national level. Coverage of RMNCH services calculated from HF data was consistent with population-based surveys, despite year-to-year fluctuation among health zones and across conflict-intensity categories.ConclusionsAlthough good in general, the HF reporting rate in the Kivu was negatively impacted by conflict intensity especially at the beginning of the DHIS2’s rolling-up. Routine HF data appeared useful for assessing and monitoring trends in RMNCH service coverage, including in areas with high-intensity conflict.

Combat-related ocular injuries in the Israel Defense Forces during the years 2013 to 2019.

Ocular injuries account for up to 13% of battle injuries, despite the implementation of advanced protective eyewear (PE). The aim of this study was to describe the extent of ocular injuries over the last years among Israel Defense Forces soldiers and to examine the change in PE policy introduced in 2013 and the effect of a high-intensity conflict on ocular injury characteristics. This retrospective registry-based analysis derived data from the Israel Defense Forces Trauma Registry and included soldiers who sustained combat-related ocular injuries between the years 2013 and 2019. Demographic data and injury characteristics of casualties, as well as information regarding the use of PE, were collected and analyzed. A total of 2,312 military casualties were available for this study; the incidence of combat-related ocular injuries was 8.9% (n = 113). Ocular injuries occurred among male soldiers (98.2%) with a mean ± SD age of 22.7 ± 4.6 years; mechanism of injury was penetrating in 59.3% of the casualties and blunt in 22.1% of the casualties, ocular injury was isolated in 51.3% of the casualties, and others sustained concomitant injuries including head (32.7%), upper extremity injury (17.7%), lower extremity (15.9%), torso (8.0%), neck (6.2%), and other (5.9%) injuries. Ocular injuries rate was similar among casualties who used PE (11.2%) and those who did not use PE (13.0%) while injured (p = 0.596). Rate of open globe injuries was 9.1% in casualties who used PE and 39.5% (p = 0.002) in casualties who did not. Eye protection may significantly reduce ocular injuries severity. Education of the combatants on the use of PE and guidance of medical teams on proper assessment, initial treatment, and rapid evacuation of casualties are needed to improve visual outcomes of the casualties further. Epidemiological study, level IV.

Grasping and grounding Europe through seabirds and eelgrass: Environmental policy affordances in Arcachon Bay (France)

This paper draws on an empirical study to demonstrate how a ‘geographical’ work underpins the implementation of European Union (EU) directives on Birds, Habitats and Water. Indeed, this geographical work plays a key role in local institutionalizations of the EU. Our hypothesis is that social players, i.e., local actors, scientists and citizens, deploy both cognitive and material means to ‘get a grasp’ on nature in order to put environmental policies into practice. To test our hypothesis, we coupled two concepts, ‘affordance’ and ‘anchoring’, and analyzed interviews and documents relating to the implementation of EU policies in Arcachon Bay, southwest of France. Our research highlighted the importance of two affordances – ‘wetland birds’ and ‘eelgrass’ – used by social players to anchor environmental policies. Moreover, it revealed that the grasping and anchoring of nature is a social process of selection and exclusion, imposing boundaries and distributing power. For all these reasons, we conclude that ‘Europe in the making’ involves countless low and high-intensity conflicts which only locally embedded research can elucidate.

Assistance in chronic conflict areas: evidence from South Sudan

ABSTRACT People living in contexts affected by conflict suffer from many forms of deprivation. Failure in the delivery of assistance can translate into the further deterioration of their conditions. This paper combines a geo-referenced household dataset collected in South Sudan in 2017 with information on conflict events from the ACLED. The collection of data in areas extensively affected by violence fills an important gap in the literature. We analyse conflict exposure and test the link with humanitarian assistance. We find that people living in high-intensity conflict areas received less assistance. We suggest social elites and marginalisation as a possible explanation.

Effect of Time of Exposure to Prolonged War on Resilience of Soldiers

The armed forces of a country face numerous challenges in their professional lives which affect both their physical and mental health. Literature provides evidence that exposure to war like situations and conflicts exert stress amongst the military personnel. Despite such high intensity conflict situations cases of impaired mental health are low among the armed forces personnel which can be explained as resilient behaviour. Therefore the objective of the present study was to study the effect of time of exposure to prolonged war on the resilience levels of military personnel, specifically the Indian army personnel. The sample of the study included N=106 Indian army personnel serving in the high intensity conflict regions of Jammu and Kashmir, India. The sample was assessed quantitatively using the resilience questionnaire by Lakshmi and Narain and results were calculated. The results were quantitatively analysed using one-way ANOVAstatistical method and it was found that soldiers with 3 to 10 months of exposure to high intensity conflict region had low to average levels of resilience whereas soldiers with 10 to 24months of exposure had resilience levels ranging from average to high. Hence it was revealed that resilience of soldiers with more exposure to prolonged war was higher than those who had less duration of prolonged war. Furthermore, the need for more research in importance of resilience building as part of combat training is discussed in the research.

DOES MONEY BUY FRIENDS? EVIDENCE FROM CHINA'S BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE

AbstractStudies of China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) have focused on the strategic intentions of Beijing, with much less attention paid to its political effects. The argument that the initiative can improve political relationships with BRI countries is assumed rather than empirically grounded. This paper bridges the gap by studying countries’ cooperation and conflict with China. I find that (a) the initiative appears to marginally improve BRI countries’ cooperation and significantly reduce low-intensity conflict; (b) the cooperation-promoting effect is driven only by neighboring countries while the restraining effect for low-intensity conflict results primarily from non-neighboring countries; and (c) there is no systematic evidence so far that the initiative has any effect on high-intensity conflict. These results offer mixed evidence of commercial liberalism in the context of the BRI: money (or the potential thereof) can induce cooperation in the short run, but it may not be enough to fundamentally change interstate relations.

Tertium datur: Multi-attribute reference points and integration choices between the European Union and Eurasian Economic Union

The article imports insights from prospect theory into the study of integration choices of ruling elites from Eastern Partnership countries. It introduces the notion of multi-attribute reference points and provides an example of identifying their coordinates, against which ruling elites from Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine are expected to consider distinct integration choices: the European Union or Eurasian Economic Union. The research finds that ruling elites from Eastern Partnership countries with the lowest levels of affluence, with medium to high intensity conflicts with Russia and with lower, but still non-trivial costs of domestic transformation have tended to be risk-seeking and opted for the European Union as an integration choice. However, ruling elites from Eastern Partnership countries with low and medium levels of affluence, with no conflict with Russia and with medium to high costs of domestic transformation have tended to be risk-averse and selected the Eurasian Economic Union as an integration option.

Neck injuries – israel defense forces 20 years' experience

BackgroundNeck injuries are an important cause of combat mortality and morbidity. This study's objective was to examine the characteristics and causes of neck injuries among Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and emphasize the best treatment protocols for the advanced life support providers in the prehospital combat environment. MethodsThe IDF Trauma Registry (IDF-TR) includes prehospital data regarding casualties treated by the IDF's medical forces. This study was a retrospective, observational study that included all casualties who were injured between January 2006 and December 2018. ResultsBetween January 2016 and December 2018, 3294 casualties were recorded. During the study period, 1% (41/3,394) of all injury casualties in the registry were isolated neck injuries compared to 94% (3185/3,394) without neck injury. 42% (14/41) percent of the neck casualties were classified as urgent compared to 26% (830/3185, P = 0.09) in the no neck group. The most frequent type of injury mechanism in the neck casualties was penetrating injury (54% 22/41), mostly due to shrapnel (68% 15/22). 60% of neck injured personnel were injured during the 2nd Lebanon War and Operation Protective Edge in high-intensity conflicts. As for life-saving interventions, advanced airway interventions were performed in 12% of neck injured group (5/41) compared to 3% (104/3185, P = 0.02) in the no neck group. We revealed that cricothyroidotomy was performed in almost 10% (4/41) of neck injured casualties compared to only 1% (19/3185, P<0.0001) in no neck casualties. As for damage control resuscitation, neck injury casualties received higher amounts of Fresh Dried Plasma 7% (3/41) Vs. 1% (32/3185, P = 0.02) and Tranexamic acid 15% (6/41) Vs. 4% (124/3185, P = 0.01) compared to non-neck casualties. ConclusionsMilitary neck injuries are a significant cause of substantial disability and result in incompatibility with combat duties in previously healthy soldiers. Prompt medical care, especially urgent hemodynamic and airway management, is paramount in these injuries. Routine use of designated neck protection might lower the number of neck injuries, mitigate their severity, and even decrease mortality. Level of EvidenceLevel III (Retrospective study with up to two negative criteria)

Approximate dynamic programming for the military aeromedical evacuation dispatching, preemption-rerouting, and redeployment problem

Military medical planners must consider how aeromedical evacuation (MEDEVAC) assets will be utilized when preparing for and supporting combat operations. This research examines the MEDEVAC dispatching, preemption-rerouting, and redeployment (DPR) problem. The intent of this research is to determine high-quality DPR policies that improve the performance of United States Army MEDEVAC systems and ultimately increase the combat casualty survivability rate. A discounted, infinite-horizon Markov decision process (MDP) model of the MEDEVAC DPR problem is formulated and solved via an approximate dynamic programming (ADP) strategy that utilizes a support vector regression value function approximation scheme within an approximate policy iteration algorithmic framework. The objective is to maximize the expected total discounted reward attained by the system. The applicability of the MDP model is examined via a notional, representative planning scenario based on high-intensity combat operations to defend Azerbaijan against a notional aggressor. Computational experimentation is performed to determine how selected problem features and algorithmic features affect the quality of solutions attained by the ADP-generated DPR policies and to assess the efficacy of the proposed solution methodology. The results from the computational experiments indicate the ADP-generated policies significantly outperform the two benchmark policies considered. Moreover, the results reveal that the average service time of high-precedence, time-sensitive requests decreases when an ADP policy is adopted during high-intensity conflicts. As the rate at which requests enter the MEDEVAC system increases, the performance gap between the ADP policy and the first benchmark policy (i.e., the currently practiced, closest-available dispatching policy) increases substantially. Conversely, as the rate at which requests enter the system decreases, the ADP performance improvement over both benchmark policies decreases, indicating the ADP policy provides little-to-no benefit over a myopic approach (e.g., as utilized in the benchmark policies) when the intensity of a conflict is low. Ultimately, this research informs the development and implementation of future tactics, techniques, and procedures for military MEDEVAC operations.

The (im)possibilities of disaster risk reduction in the context of high-intensity conflict: the case of Afghanistan

ABSTRACT Conflict aggravates disaster risk and impact through increased vulnerability and weakened response capacities. Disaster risk reduction (DRR) and disaster governance are needed – but often deemed unfeasible – in conflict-affected areas. In Afghanistan, despite the high-intensity conflict (HIC), there is a growing body of practice on DRR. To provide insight on DRR in HIC contexts, this study used document analysis, stakeholder interviews, and participant observation to analyse the promotion, implementation, and challenges of DRR in Afghanistan. The findings show that DRR was promoted after international recognition of Afghanistan’s high disaster risk, which coincided with expanding opportunities for development. Early Afghan DRR projects were hazard-oriented and focused on mitigation infrastructure, but some have shifted towards an integrated approach. DRR is challenging in HIC contexts because of complex logistical and funding needs required to overcome access and security issues. The Afghan experience shows that DRR is possible in HIC countries, provided that different levels of conflict are acknowledged, sufficient time and funding are available, and disaster governance arrangements are in place. Expectations regarding the possibilities for DRR in HIC areas should be tempered by the realities of limitations in terms of geographical coverage, real impact, and capacities to reduce vulnerability in an integrated way.

The Making of ‘Hesitant Peace’ in Northern Ireland

This article examines the early stage of the Northern Ireland conflict from the beginning of the ethno-nationalist conflict called the Troubles of 1969 to the beginning of the ‘peace process’ through the Downing Street Declaration of 1993 by focusing on a process of political, non-violent resolution efforts of political agents, which affected the route of the conflict. It utilises conflict resolution approaches to determine the variables with regards to the perceptions, positions, and decisions of conflicting parties, which provide an understanding of their role in peacemaking during the highintensity conflict. Particularly, it offers three major aspects for analysis: inter-party collaboration, popular support, and interchangeability between armed and political struggle. It uses rich data from archival documents to analyse the influence of early peace efforts to de-escalate the conflict and establish foundations for peace prior to official negotiations. It argues that peace efforts do not consist of official negotiations in the 1990s. The article finds that they had been initiated long before multilateral negotiations through political conferences, direct and indirect dialogues between major political parties in Northern Ireland, and the British and Irish governments. However, the reluctance of political agents towards peace prevented making progress towards peace.&nbsp;

The Development of Poland’s Air Defense System: The Operational Context

The article discusses operational context for the development of Poland's air defense system. The assessment focuses on air defense operations in high intensity conflict. Recommendations include setting a realistic level of ambition in the field of air defense and increasing operational capabilities through modernization of its combat assets. The priority proposed for Poland’s air defense system is to introduce a new generation of short range surface to air missile systems and then to develop medium range air and missile defense capabilities.

How to Lose a War or Two: Afghanistan, Iraq, and the Failure of the U.S. Army to Learn from the Low-Intensity Conflicts of the 1990s

How to Lose a War or Two:Afghanistan, Iraq, and the Failure of the U.S. Army to Learn from the Low-Intensity Conflicts of the 1990s Benjamin E. Varat (bio) Pat Proctor, Lessons Unlearned: The U.S. Army's Role in Creating the Forever Wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. Columbia, MO: University of Missouri Press, 2020. xv + 486 pp. Bibliography and Index. $40.00. Pat Proctor's Lessons Unlearned: The U.S. Army's Role in Creating the Forever Wars in Afghanistan and Iraq adds to the ever-growing library of postmortems devoted to what went wrong in these conflicts. Proctor, an Assistant Professor of Homeland Security at Wichita State University, served more than twentyfive years in the Army and retired a colonel. His roles during these years as wartime commander, teacher, analyst, and planner, along with multiple tours of duty in both conflicts provide him the perspective and knowledge to explain why the failures occurred and what needs to be done to prevent a recurrence in the future. There is much to recommend in Lessons Unlearned for historians who study these wars and national security analysts debating the future structure and purpose of the U.S. Army. Nonetheless, a lack of historical perspective beyond the American experience of the 1990s somewhat diminishes Proctor's analysis. Proctor argues that the post-Cold War U.S. Army leadership bears the majority of the blame for why these conflicts unfolded so disastrously. Pulling no punches, he declares on the first page that these failures result from "a deliberately engineered incompetence," a conscious effort to focus planning, training, and force organization on fighting nonexistent peer competitors akin to the Soviet Union during the Cold War (p. 3). Thus, while the U.S. Army today is unmatched in its ability to fight and win a war against a traditional Great Power, Proctor makes clear that this dominant position has come at a tremendous and unnecessary cost: the inability to fight and win low-intensity conflicts, like those that have unceasingly bedeviled U.S. forces in Afghanistan and Iraq. Proctor embarks upon an "intellectual history" of how and why the U.S. Army failed to learn anything from the numerous low-intensity conflicts it fought over more than a decade from the end of the Cold War to the invasion [End Page 611] of Afghanistan in 2001 (p. 13). A low-intensity conflict, per Proctor's definition, encompasses "operations ranging from humanitarian assistance and disaster relief outside the United States or its territories to counterguerrilla (sic) and counterinsurgency operations" (p. 14). Proctor structures each chapter, save for the first, around case studies of the conflicts of the 1990s and the intellectual response of the Army leadership to these conflicts, as evidenced by official statements, revised war-fighting doctrines, field manuals, and training exercises. For his case studies, Proctor explores U.S. Army interventions in Panama, Somalia, Haiti, Bosnia-Herzegovina, and Kosovo, juxtaposing these experiences with the rationale undergirding the major Army restructurings and modernizations of the 1990s and early 2000s. Chapter One serves the dual role of historical overview and overarching critique. Proctor tells the story of how the Army rose from the ashes of Vietnam to dominate Iraq in the First Gulf War. In these years, the Army went from a conscript to an all-volunteer force and began the Revolution in Military Affairs (RMA) process of adding ever-more-high-tech means of communication and destruction to its arsenal. Yet even as he tells this apparent success story, Proctor warns that the Army failed to maintain and disseminate the low-intensity-conflict lessons gleaned from the defeat in Southeast Asia. The authors of the Army's field and training manuals excised these lessons over time, and the various Army officer-training centers spent ever fewer hours on low-intensity-focused curriculum. When Congressional legislation in the mid-1980s placed responsibility for low-intensity warfare onto Special Operations Forces (SOF), the Army leadership, focused as always on high-intensity conflict, gladly handed over the portfolio. In Proctor's telling, the nearly effortless defeat of the Iraqi Army in early 1991 seemed to vindicate an Army doctrine that largely ignored strategies for dealing with...

Гібридна агресія Росії як інструмент геополітичного впливу на африканські країни: висновки для України

Experts in the field of international conflicts focus on a threatening trend - increasing levels of aggression in Europe. Russia has been involved in all the high-intensity conflicts that have taken place in the region since the 2000s – the wars in Ukraine and Georgia, the limited wars in Dagestan, Ingushetia and Chechnya, and the content of the conflict in Moldova. The Crimean crisis and aggression in Donbas have become a painful reaction to Russia's inability to lead the world leadership and structure a new world order. Modern foreign policy of the Russian Federation is based on the Soviet understanding of the geopolitical structure of the world in general and the European region in particular. Russia is making every effort to consolidate itself as a center of power on a continental scale and dreams of regaining the geopolitical weight of the Soviet era. The article analyzes the causes and consequences of the use of hybrid aggression, identifies the complexity of using military-political, economic, informational and international tools to influence the formation of the world order. The example of Russian aggression in the African region is considered and the ways of counteracting Russian aggression are offered to Ukraine.

The Heterogeneous Effects of Conflict on Education: A Spatial Analysis in Sub-Saharan Africa

In this paper, we identify under which conditions and to what extent armed conflicts harm the long-run educational attainment of children in rural Sub-Saharan Africa. By combining 66 rounds of DHS surveys with geo-coded conflict information, our study contextualizes the findings of a series of country-specific case studies on the effects of conflict on education, and provides evidence on the mechanisms through which these effects occur. Our main identification strategy compares educational losses of youth living within the same household, while also controlling for local weather shocks and countrywide dynamics in education. The effects of conflict on education are strongly context dependent. High-intensity conflicts reduce local educational attainment, on average, although this effect becomes insignificant in strong autocracies. By contrast, education is generally unaffected by localized low-intensity conflict. Human capital loss due to conflict is most severely felt in weak states, and in response to non-state based conflicts, highlighting the importance of state capacity in mediating the educational costs of local conflicts.