High-intensity Conflict Research Articles

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF THE EFFECTIVENESS OF INDIVIDUAL BALLISTIC PROTECTION MEANS USED IN THE RUSSO-UKRAINIAN WAR

The present scientific paper presents a comparative analysis of the different types of individual ballistic protection devices, particularly focusing on body armor used in the high-intensity conflict between Russia and Ukraine. With the advancement of technologies and the introduction of new tactics in modern conflicts, losses of personnel significantly increased. The use of effective individual ballistic protection devices substantially reduces these losses. The report examines the following parameters to compare different types of body armor: class of ballistic protection, weight, protective area, and comfort in use. To conduct the analysis, available literary sources, military reports, and feedback from the personnel of the countries involved in the conflict were studied.

Effectiveness of military spending in reducing the intensity of armed conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa

Abstract This study empirically examines the effectiveness of military spending in reducing the intensity of armed conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa. We use a dynamic probit model, and the results show that military spending reduces the intensity of conflict. It significantly reduces low-intensity conflicts more than high-intensity conflicts. Additionally, the effectiveness of military spending depends on its level and the quality of institutions. Finally, the analysis of transmission channels shows that military spending affects conflict intensity mainly through the channel of military capabilities. We conducted several tests and robustness checks to ensure the validity of our results.

Injury of the musculoskeletal system in civilian casualties as a result of hostilities. Report 1. Age structure

The integration of the military medical supply system into the unified medical space of Ukraine involves the functional combination of forces and means of medical services and the civilian health care system in order to maximize their capabilities for effective medical supply of the troops while preserving organizational independence. The purpose of our study was to determine the clinical and epidemiological characteristics of civilian patients with trauma due to modern hostilities. Materials and methods. To carry out our work, we analyzed skeletal traumas in 137 civilian patients who were injured during modern hostilities in Ukraine and were treated in health care facilities of the frontline zone in 2014–2023. Results. Comparing epidemiological data in two different periods of the war in Ukraine, we concluded that there is some difference in the age structure of victims with traumatic injuries sustained during modern hostilities. Thus, during the high-intensity conflict, the number of children’s injuries increased dramatically. The share of victims under the age of 15 during the full-scale invasion increased 4.5 times. In this period, the percentage of young and middle-aged wounded civilians decreased. If in the period of Anti-Terrorist Operation/Joint Forces Operation the number of people aged 16–60 was 67.6 %, then with the beginning of hostilities their share decreased to 42.0 %. This trend indicates the strengthening of internal and external migration starting from February 2022. Unlike the young and middle-aged, the share of elderly and senile people increased dramatically during the full-scale war. During the period of low-intensity military operations, the number of patients aged 61–91 was 29.4 %, while during high-intensity conflict, it was already 44.8 %. A sharp increase in traumatic injuries among elderly and senile patients is another feature of this conflict. Conclusions. Publicizing the experience of providing medical care to patients with injuries sustained due to military actions in Ukraine is only at the beginning of its existence. That is why, based on the above, we planned to continue scientific research on this problem.

When conflict becomes calamity: Understanding the role of armed conflict dynamics in natural disasters

Can armed conflict amplify the societal impacts and humanitarian consequences of natural hazards? Given that these hazards affect millions of people worldwide and that climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, it is paramount that we advance our understanding of what makes societies vulnerable to these hazards. Existing research has focused mainly on political violence as a consequence of natural hazard-related disasters but has neglected that conflict can also be an underlying factor that shapes the impact of these events. Consequently, we know little about whether and how exposure to violent armed conflict increases vulnerability to natural hazards. This study argues that the local dynamics of conflict can have a significant effect on vulnerability and empirically investigates how periods of high-intensity conflict can affect the humanitarian consequences of natural hazards in the context of tropical cyclones in the Philippines. By combining data on physical storm exposure with highly detailed subnational data on disaster fatalities and conflict events, the empirical analysis allows the identification of the independent effect of conflict on hazard impacts. Results show that local periods of high-intensity conflict significantly increase the humanitarian consequences of natural hazards. These results have important implications for research investigating the impacts of disasters on peace and conflict, as they show that the consequences of natural disasters depend fundamentally on pre-existing conflict dynamics.

Retrospective Observational Analysis of Computed Tomography Scans of Trauma Patients in Overseas Operations (SCANOPEX Study).

High-intensity conflicts are on Europe's doorstep. The French expertise in the medical management of frontline casualties in overseas operations is well established. However, in the management of severe trauma, we lack data on the injuries identified by body scanners in the field. Understanding the associations between injury mechanisms and radiological lesions would enable us to anticipate medical and surgical management. To study this possible link, we collected and interpreted scanogaphic data and analyzed them according to lesion mechanisms, following the algorithm MARCH used to implement the concept of Damage Control Resuscitation, which includes life-saving measures to ensure that the wounded reach medical-surgical facilities alive. This retrospective monocentric study collected data from body scanners performed in overseas operations between June 2011 and September 2023. Inclusion criteria were to be French military personnel and to have undergone a whole-body scanner in a theater of overseas operations. Exclusion criteria were to have died before the scan, to be foreign, non-military and a minor. Of 164 available files, 96 were eligible, 1 patient declared aged 70 years was excluded, and 95 files were retained. In our population, 18% of injured patients had a spinal fracture. Compared with road traffic accident casualties, improvised explosive device casualties were the most severely injured patients arriving alive at computed tomography, with a relative risk of Injury Severity Score > 8 of 2.29 [1.09-4.80] (P = .019). Improvised explosive device casualties had a relative risk of airway injuries of 2.57 [1.03-6.39] (P = .030), injuries leading to functional impairment of 3.21 [1.17-8.82] (P =.013), injuries leading to infection of 2.14 [1.21-3.76] (P = .0045), and injuries leading to shock of 3.21 [0.96-10.70] (P = .039). Deep metal splinters were only found in the improvised explosive device group. Preparing the medical corps to deal with war casualties is fundamental. Our study shows that it is essential to consider the mechanism of injury to understand the casualty better and predict potential injuries. In addition, the study of postmortem scans could greatly help analyze potentially avoidable deaths.

Humanitarian pipeline for high-intensity conflicts: The return of the Ukrainian experience

Humanitarian pipeline for high-intensity conflicts: The return of the Ukrainian experience

Is high-intensity conflict escalation inevitable in the future? A two-level game analysis on the causes of US-Iran risky rivalry

In recent years, there appears to be a growing consensus among policymakers in both the East and the West, that the decades of global peace after the Cold War has now come to an end, and that the world is facing mounting security risks to the future of humanity. Among those challenges, the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict poses particularly significant risks to regional and global security, and is closely related to many other contemporary international crises involving European states and their allies, particularly the Russo-Ukrainian War, the nuclear proliferation in Europe, and the military disputes between the Iran-backed Houthis and EU forces. But why has the U.S.-Iran relationship deteriorated so dramatically over the past years, and what are the future risks its presents to the international community? While extensive scholarly works have been conducted to examine the ideological, historical, and geopolitical variables that fuel this observed escalating antagonism, no study to date has formal-modelled the complex interactions between Tehran and Washington into a two-level game. Utilizing an infinitely-repeated game theory approach, this research presents a comprehensive analytical framework that explains how interrelated political factors at both the international and the domestic level jointly shape the dynamic of this bilateral relationship. We contend that the domestic rally effect created by risk-oriented diplomacy, incompatible ideological stances and political values, the increasing polarization within U.S. Congress, and the mounting rivalry between Israel and the Iran-led Axis of Resistance convince policymakers from both sides that their utilities can be maximized in a non-cooperative game. Based on our models, it can be forecasted that there is hardly any chance Washington and Tehran will concede to the other’s security demands in the foreseeable future. Thus, the risks of high-intensity conflict escalation due to miscalculation will continue to upsurge in the future.

Jewish and Arab lecturers teaching Jewish and Arab teachers how to teach in the ‘other’ society: Insights into the development of intercultural competence in a high-intensity conflict society

This study focused on the Leadership in Cross-Cultural Teaching Program (Cross-Teach), which retrains academics to become teachers in the ‘other’ (Jewish vs. Arab) educational stream in Israel, a high-intensity conflict society. The research aimed to uncover lecturers' understanding of intercultural competence (henceforth, IC), investigating how they perceive it should be imparted to pre-service teachers operating across intercultural boundaries. Nine lecturers, representing diverse backgrounds and extensive experience, were interviewed and the transcripts were used as data for qualitative analysis. This research presents a novel perspective on IC among educators, emphasizing comprehensive skills ranging from cognitive and emotional dimensions to identity exploration. Diverging from existing literature, our study uniquely focuses on identity and conflict as an essential component of IC among teachers. The lecturers delve into the reciprocal learning environment, exposing participants to identity conflicts and fostering intercultural encounters. The inclusion of diverse Arab and Jewish lecturers further enriches our exploration of identity formation. Our findings illuminate the complex dynamics, challenges, and opportunities for IC within a society marked by high-intensity conflict.

Colombia's Armed Conflict and Dental Caries among Adults.

This study aimed to determine the association between residing in municipalities with armed conflict and dental caries among adults in Colombia. Data from 9,194 individuals aged 18-79 years, who participated in the Fourth National Oral Health Survey in 2014, were linked with information on the presence and intensity of the armed conflict experienced in their municipality of residence between 2000 and 2012 (extracted from the Resource Centre for Conflicts Analysis). Dental caries was determined through clinical examinations and summarised using the numbers of decayed teeth (DT), decayed and filled teeth (DFT), and decayed, missing, and filled teeth (DMFT). Two-level negative binomial regression models were fitted, with adults nested within municipalities, to test the association between armed conflict indicators and caries outcomes after adjustment for covariates. The mean DT, DFT, and DMFT scores were 1.75 (SD = 2.36), 6.03 (SD = 4.53), and 10.27 (SD = 7.11), respectively. Of the 197 municipalities included in the analysis, 12.2% experienced conflict permanently and 18.3% experienced high-intensity conflict. In crude analysis, adults living in municipalities with more presence and intensity of armed conflict had lower DT and DMFT, but not DFT scores. After adjustment for covariates, only the (high) intensity of conflict was associated with lower DT (rate ratio: 0.64; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.47-0.87), DFT (RR: 0.82; 95% CI: 0.71-0.95), and DMFT scores (RR: 0.81; 95% CI: 0.74-0.89). This study found that Colombian adults residing in municipalities with high intensity of conflict had lower levels of untreated disease and caries experience.

Ethical Dilemmas Faced by Military Health Personnel During High-Intensity Conflict: The Crucial Issue of Triage.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has triggered the biggest conflict in Europe since the Second World War. It has forced countries to prepare for engagement on a massive scale, namely, a high-intensity war between nation states. A potential massive influx of wounded personnel risks saturating logistical supply chains and requires changes to not only medical care but also a paradigm shift. In this context, the principle of distributive justice is key. The aim is to save as many lives as possible through triage, which consists in "doing the greatest good for the greatest number." This idea is fundamental, as an emergency that has passed is no longer an emergency. However, international texts and treaties not only underline that the sole criterion for triage is clinical severity, but they also fail to take into account the patient's status (civilian, friend, and foe). In a high-intensity warfare situation, these texts, and the medical-surgical triage criteria they provide are insufficient, as caregivers may be required to make decisions based on the status of the patient. The need to make such choices could cause psychological suffering among military caregivers, as individuals are recurrently faced with difficult ethical dilemmas. One way to prevent this happening is to provide predeployment training in wartime medical ethics. The latter would include both instruction in international humanitarian law and practical simulations of clinical situations where the person is faced with an ethical dilemma.

Cattle, conflict, and climate variability: explaining pastoralist conflict intensity in the Karamoja region of Uganda

Conflicts between pastoralist groups in Africa are rampant and cause numerous deaths each year, but their intensity exhibits significant spatial and temporal variations. Under what conditions do some pastoralist conflicts turn more violent than others? Previous research has shown that climate variability may be a relevant explanatory factor under certain conditions, yet little is known about how specific combinations of conditions jointly affect pastoralist conflict intensity. Moreover, many studies have investigated the link between resource scarcity and conflict, but few have examined how asymmetrical distribution of resources between groups affects levels of violence. This article contributes to filling these gaps through a qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) of pastoralist conflicts in Karamoja, Uganda—a region characterized by cattle husbandry, communal conflict, and a highly variable climate. Five conditions that are related either to incentives for taking to violence or to opportunity structures are examined and three pathways to high-intensity conflict are identified. The results show that an asymmetrical distribution of resources between pastoralist groups during a drought incentivizes conflict, particularly in remote areas with nearby armed conflicts. The article highlights some implications for future research and policy. First, it shows that this type of conflict cannot be reduced to simple “resource scarcity conflicts” since climate variability only has an effect in combination with other conditions. Second, it emphasizes the need for policy approaches that consider both environmental variability and political contexts in addressing pastoralist violence.

Debating Environmental Change and Conflict in the Global South: Learning from Selected Cases in Africa

The crux of this paper centres on the dynamics of environmental change and ensuing conflict. This review paper accentuates the various theoretical underpinnings regarding environmental change and conflict. Particular reference was given to countries in the Global South because they are the most affected by environmental change-related conflict. It was established in this paper that population growth is positively correlated to militarised interstate disputes, although this is not always the case. Again, there is a lack of coding in current conflict dates, to the extent that it is often complicated to ascertain whether specific conflict trends can be traced back to environmental change. Conflict data usually use data sets from the environment-conflict nexus that only capture high-intensity conflict events, which often ignore low-scale conflict within states and districts. Thirdly, the averaging conflict would likely lead to biassed academic and policy conclusions. Fourthly, poor economic performances, either persistent or temporary, have the likelihood of causing violent conflicts. For instance, a land invasion in Brazil occurred immediately after adverse economic shocks.Further environmental degradation can cause migration by perpetuating migration. A significant obstacle encountered in the field of Risk perception literature pertains to the tendency of scholars to heavily depend on excessively deterministic explanations when conceptualising the concept of resource scarcity. Once more, the assessment of environmental change is exclusively based on small variations in temperature and precipitation. The examples examined in this study were selected from diverse geographical regions, encompassing East Africa, Central Africa, West Africa, and Southern Africa. In agro-pastoral West Africa, the frequency of conflicts is on the rise. As a result, policymakers and multilateral funders are increasingly shouldering the responsibility due to the ongoing growth of populations and the changing environmental conditions. There seems to be a correlation between environmental degradation and conflict; however, the relationship between these two is not always apparent or might be the other way around. Based on current theorising and available empirical evidence, it remains debatable whether environmental degradation increases the risk of violent conflict or whether conflict is leading to natural resource deterioration.

Reassessment of the main directions of the military-industrial complex in the light of its experience

This article is devoted to the understanding of the experience of the American defense industrial complex and military analytical centers. The study reveals the importance of a special military operation for the US defense industry and military thought in general as the first high-intensity conflict in a long time. The study shows that there are technical and tactical number elements that have become apparent during the fighting in Ukraine and require careful consideration. The main conclusion of the work can be called the need to change the nature of the relationship between the defense industry and the state defense order as a revision result of the strategy and doctrine of military construction.

US military-industrial complex under the influence of the ukrainian conflict

This study is devoted to the study of the state of the military-industrial complex under the influence of the Ukrainian conflict, problems and prospects of development. The work is relevant due to the escalation of the conflict in Ukraine and the use of American weapons by the Armed Forces of Ukraine against Russian units during a special military operation. The article investigates such issues of the military-industrial complex as the gap between the civilian and military industries of the United States, the dependence of the American defense industry on foreign manufacturers and developers, the lack of complete chains of weapons creation and the unsuitability of American models for high-intensity conflict. The study particularly considers the relationship between civil and military production and the importance of a developed industry for the military-industrial complex. The paper focuses on the ideology of the creation and production of products of the American defense industry and their inconsistency with the conditions of a high-intensity conflict. The work emphasizes the need for serious financial injections and socio-economic reforms in any possible scenario for the development of the US military-industrial complex.

Conflict occurrence and preferred management styles among ICU nurses during the first wave of COVID-19 pandemic: A cross-sectional study in Saudi Arabia.

Intensive care units (ICUs) have been overwhelmed by the increasing number of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases, causing psychological burdens, stress, and various types of conflict among nurses. To examine the occurrence, type, and intensity of conflict and preferred management styles among ICU nurses during the COVID-19 pandemic. This cross-sectional descriptive study was conducted in a government hospital in Saudi Arabia using a convenience sample of 95 nurses from three ICUs. Data were collected using an e-questionnaire comprising the Nursing Conflict Scale, Rahim Organizational Conflict Inventory-II, and sociodemographic variables. Most participants reported exposure to moderately (64.2%) or highly (34.79%) intense conflict during the pandemic. The competitive (2.23 ± .472) and intragroup (2.23 ± .385) types of conflict were the most frequently reported. The preferred conflict management style was collaborating (21.85 ± 5.49), followed by accommodating (18.39 ± 4.03). Pearson's correlation analysis showed that age, years of experience, and education were significantly associated with conflict type and management style. Preparedness to care for suspected or confirmed COVID-19 cases was associated with interpersonal conflict (r = .20, p = .04). The participants experienced moderate- to high-intensity conflict; however, they employed constructive rather than destructive management styles. Nurse leaders, policymakers, and educators must initiate transformational intervention programmes to enhance and sustain nurses' competencies in constructive conflict management strategies. Interpersonal communication and crisis management training programmes should be formulated to raise nurses' awareness and enhance their competencies vis-à-vis taking a positive approach to overcoming various conflict types and levels, particularly during crises.

Examining the relationship between armed conflict and coverage of maternal and child health services in 35 countries in sub-Saharan Africa: a geospatial analysis

Armed conflict is on the rise in sub-Saharan Africa and affects public infrastructures, including health systems, although evidence on population health is sparse. We aimed to establish how these disruptions ultimately affect health service coverage. We geospatially matched Demographic and Health Survey data with the Uppsala Conflict Data Program Georeferenced Events Dataset, covering 35 countries for the period from 1990 to 2020. We relied on linear probability models with fixed effects to capture the effect of nearby armed conflict (within 50 km of the survey cluster) on four service coverage indicators along the continuum of maternal and child health care. We also investigated effect heterogeneity by varying conflict intensity and duration, and sociodemographic status. The estimated coefficients represent the decrease in the probability (in percentage points) of the child or their mother being covered by the respective health service following deadly conflicts within 50 km. Any nearby armed conflict was associated with reduced coverage for all examined health services, with the exception of early antenatal care: early antenatal care (-0·5 percentage points, 95% CI -1·1 to 0·1), facility-based delivery (-2·0, -2·5 to -1·4), timely childhood vaccination (-2·5, -3·1 to -1·9), and treatment of common childhood illnesses (-2·5, -3·5 to -1·4). For all four health services, the negative effects increased for high-intensity conflicts and were significant throughout. When examining conflict duration, we did not find negative effects on the treatment of common childhood illnesses in prolonged conflicts. The analysis on effect heterogeneity revealed that, except for timely childhood vaccination, the negative effects of armed conflict on health service coverage were more pronounced in urban settings. Our findings suggest that health service coverage is significantly affected by contemporaneous conflict, but health systems can adapt to provide routine services, such as child curative services, in situations of prolonged conflict. Our analysis underlines the importance of studying health service coverage during conflict both at the finest possible scales and across different indicators, pointing at the need for differential policy interventions. None. For the French and Portuguese translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

The composition of UN peacekeeping operations and aid worker security

Do United Nations peacekeeping operations improve the security of humanitarian aid workers during conflict? Answering this question is important given the critical assistance that humanitarian personnel provide in conflict zones, the increased integration of humanitarian activities in UN operations in recent decades and the growing incidence of attacks against aid workers worldwide. Researchers have found that the presence of peacekeepers does not positively affect aid worker security and may even make humanitarian personnel more vulnerable to violent attacks. However, previous studies have not examined whether the effect of peacekeeping operations on aid worker security is influenced by the personnel composition of UN missions. I hypothesize that operations with more troops are likely to reduce attacks against aid workers, while similar security gains are unlikely to be realized with larger numbers of police or observers. This is due to troops’ specific capabilities, which increase their ability to mitigate high-intensity conflict environments and protect humanitarian personnel traveling on roads. Statistical analyses of monthly data between 2000 and 2015 indicate that greater numbers of UN troops, but not police and observers, are correlated with fewer attacks against aid workers. The implications of these findings are discussed, with an eye toward addressing challenges facing the UN’s force-generation process.

The heterogeneous effects of conflict on education: A spatial analysis in Sub-Saharan Africa

Armed conflicts are expected to be harmful to education but micro-level studies find at times contradicting results. Therefore, this article identifies under which conditions and to what extent armed conflicts harm the long-term educational attainment of children in rural Sub-Saharan Africa. By combining 66 rounds of DHS surveys with geo-coded conflict information, our study contextualizes the findings of a series of country-specific case studies on the effects of conflict on education, and provides evidence on the mechanisms through which these effects occur. Our main identification strategy compares educational losses of youth living within the same household, while also controlling for local weather shocks and countrywide dynamics in education. The effects of conflict on education are strongly context-dependent. High-intensity conflicts reduce local educational attainment on average, although this effect becomes insignificant in strong autocracies. By contrast, education is generally unaffected by localized low-intensity conflict. Human capital loss due to conflict is most severely felt in weak states, and in response to non-state based conflicts, highlighting the importance of state capacity in mediating the educational costs of local conflicts.

ОСОБЛИВОСТІ ПІДГОТОВКИ ТА ВЕДЕННЯ СТАБІЛІЗАЦІЙНИХ ДІЙ ВІЙСЬКОВИМИ ФОРМУВАННЯМИ З ПРАВООХОРОННИМИ ФУНКЦІЯМИ КРАЇН ПІВНІЧНОАТЛАНТИЧНОГО АЛЬЯНСУ

The article explores the essence and content of the preparation and conduct of stabilization actions by military formations with law enforcement functions according to NATO standards. It discusses the activities of the NATO Centres of Excellence, substantiates the concepts, essence, and content of stabilization actions by the security forces of Ukraine. The NATO Advanced Civil-Military Interaction Training Center for Enhancing Qualifications in Law Enforcement Stabilization Actions serves as an international coordination and knowledge hub for the community of interests in the field of stabilization actions with law enforcement characteristics. Currently, the organization consists of the following structures specialized in the described activities: Carabinieri Corps of Italy, Czech Military Police, French Gendarmerie, Greek Army, Polish Military Gendarmerie, Romanian Gendarmerie, Spanish Civil Guard, Royal Netherlands Marechaussee, and Turkish Gendarmerie. The center examines the concept of stabilization actions with law enforcement characteristics applied by NATO member countries in unstable regions (states) in all types of conflicts, ranging from peacetime to high-intensity conflicts. The spectrum of conflicts encompasses four main types of campaigns in which stabilization actions are conducted. Typically, these actions occur both during the initial stages and throughout armed conflicts (combat operations), as well as after their conclusion. The article introduces the definition of law enforcement stabilization actions, which has not been previously reflected in the normative-legal framework of the security sector components of Ukraine. The implementation of a comprehensive set of law enforcement stabilization actions will play a crucial role in the post-war period during the restoration of constitutional order and territorial integrity of Ukraine, which have been affected by Russian occupation.

The Bear in the Labyrinth

On 24 February 2022, Russia launched a ‘special military operation’ against Ukraine, sparking the largest conflict in Europe since the Second World War. The war is a remarkable opportunity to observe Russia’s military capabilities in a high-intensity conflict and to reflect on military trends witnessed in recent conflicts. Guillem Colom-Piella sets out a series of initial impressions on Moscow’s military performance in this ongoing conflict.◼