High-impact Events Research Articles

Black swans and fat tails.

Economists use the terms black swans and fat-tailed distributions to describe rare, but high-impact events in areas ranging from the financial markets to climate change. We would do well to take such phenomena into account – including in medicine.

Smaller Nuclear Detonations as the New Emergency Preparedness Challenge in Disaster Medicine and Public Health.

Recent international developments have brought a broader awareness of the vulnerability to global peace of the increasing likelihood of nuclear events. The increased nuclear threats from Russia in relation to the current Ukraine war have justifiably raised concerns for nuclear war potential with the U.S. and NATO, and the terrifying large-scale outcomes for populations worldwide. Recent surveys have indicated that 75-80% of people surveyed worldwide, and consistently across nations, believe that nuclear war is more likely now than in the recent past.1 Indeed, the fear of nuclear conflict on such a global scale has resulted in a lack of recognition of what is generally recognized as the far greater likelihood of relatively smaller nuclear detonations, at least in the near term.2 Since nuclear detonations have been considered as high impact but low likelihood events in emergency preparedness, there has subsequently been little emphasis on preparing for them, whether large- or small-scale nuclear events. In summary, we therefore find ourselves in the current environment where there is greatly increased awareness of a nuclear threat, though the fear predominates for the less probable large-scale rather than the far more likely small-scale nuclear events, and there is frankly little preparedness for any nuclear event.

Assessment of future changes in high-impact precipitation events for India using CMIP6 models

Assessment of future changes in high-impact precipitation events for India using CMIP6 models

PV hosting capacity assessment in distribution systems considering resilience enhancement

This paper presents an innovative strategy to assess the photovoltaic (PV)-based distributed generation (DG) hosting capacity considering the operation under normal and emergency conditions of electrical distribution systems (EDSs). In the emergency condition, the proposed strategy aims to improve the recoverability of EDSs against a set of high-impact fault scenarios. This recoverability process is achieved by the optimal coordination of topology reconfiguration, islanding operation of dispatchable DG units, and pre-positioning and displacement of mobile DG (MDG) units. This problem is formulated as a two-stage stochastic formulation, where the first one defines the DG hosting capacity and the amount of MDG units to be positioned in staging locations. Meanwhile, the second stage simulates high-impact fault events and, by applying resilience alternatives, the EDS recoverability can be improved. Inherently, the two-stage stochastic formulation is represented by a mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) model. The objective function of this MILP model maximizes the installed PV-based DG capacity while the amount of energy load shedding after fault events is minimized. To validate and show the scalability of the proposed strategy, two EDS are studied under different high-impact fault events and considering the application of multiple resilience alternatives. Results show that by estimating the capacity of PV-based DG simultaneously with the restoration process, the number of pre-positioned and dispatched MDG units can be reduced. On the other hand, when this PV capacity is determined disregarding fault scenarios, this solution could lead to unviable conditions and, thus, generation curtailment of up to 80% could be required.

Traversing the storm: An interdisciplinary review of crisis leadership

An organizational crisis is a low-probability, high-impact event that threatens the survival of organizations and individuals, often with little warning. In response, people seek clarity, reassurance, and hope from organizational leaders. Yet, crises also vary in nature and impact (e.g., a product failure versus the COVID-19 pandemic), which presents diverse challenges to leaders and differing stakeholder perceptions. Based on a critical analysis of 69 empirical articles, we provide a comprehensive, systematic, interdisciplinary review of the crisis leadership literature. Our review utilizes the Coombs and Holladay (1996) crisis typology, where crises are categorized according to mutually exclusive attributional dimensions (i.e., internal–external and intentional–unintentional). We conduct a thematic analysis of crisis leadership within and across these four crisis categories and find that each is associated with a different leadership theme. We also examine the methodological quality and rigor of the qualitative and quantitative articles in our review. Based on our findings, we also offer suggestions to guide future crisis leadership research, and provide guidance for organizational leaders in how to respond to various crises.

Marine heat waves: Characterizing a major climate impact in the Mediterranean

Marine heat waves (MHW), considered as persistent and spatially extensive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, have emerged as one of the global change-induced high impact events on the oceans. The study of MHWs received significant progress in recent years, although many unknowns remain. One of the most notable weaknesses is related to the absence of a universally established definition that would allow better intercomparison of results. It is our aim to contribute to this debate by considering the spatial extent to define a MHW. By applying this hypothesis to a relatively small, but complex, basin such as the Mediterranean, MHWs have been characterized and long-term trends assessed from SST satellite data analysis. Our results show that the inclusion of a minimum area threshold, 5 % of the area basin, greatly reduces the population of MHW events by not considering local SST anomalies that do not constitute a MHW event. A trend to more frequent, intense, and longer MHWs is found in the 1982–2021 period in the Mediterranean. In the spatial characterization and long-term trend analysis, regional differences were apparent. Results evidenced variations in MHWs characteristics and trends across the different sub-basins evidencing the fact that, even in a relatively small basin such as the Mediterranean, significant regional differences make it necessary to include a spatial perspective in the studies, beyond purely local analysis at each observation point in a large basin or even in the global ocean. Regarding the characterization of MHWs and trend analysis in the Mediterranean basin, a growing trend has been found in terms of frequency, duration, and intensity that accelerated since 2000 and especially in the last decade, pointing not just to a steady intensification and higher frequency of MHWs but to the emergence of a new set of more intense, long-lasting and spatially extensive MHWs in the recent years.

Meteorological, impact and climate perspectives of the 29 June 2017 heavy precipitation event in the Berlin metropolitan area

Abstract. Extreme precipitation is a weather phenomenon with tremendous damaging potential for property and human life. As the intensity and frequency of such events is projected to increase in a warming climate, there is an urgent need to advance the existing knowledge on extreme precipitation processes, statistics and impacts across scales. To this end, a working group within the Germany-based project, ClimXtreme, has been established to carry out multidisciplinary analyses of high-impact events. In this work, we provide a comprehensive assessment of the 29 June 2017 heavy precipitation event (HPE) affecting the Berlin metropolitan region (Germany), from the meteorological, impacts and climate perspectives, including climate change attribution. Our analysis showed that this event occurred under the influence of a mid-tropospheric trough over western Europe and two shortwave surface lows over Britain and Poland (Rasmund and Rasmund II), inducing relevant low-level wind convergence along the German–Polish border. Over 11 000 convective cells were triggered, starting early morning 29 June, displacing northwards slowly under the influence of a weak tropospheric flow (10 m s−1 at 500 hPa). The quasi-stationary situation led to totals up to 196 mm d−1, making this event the 29 June most severe in the 1951–2021 climatology, ranked by means of a precipitation-based index. Regarding impacts, it incurred the largest insured losses in the period 2002 to 2017 (EUR 60 million) in the greater Berlin area. We provide further insights on flood attributes (inundation, depth, duration) based on a unique household-level survey data set. The major moisture source for this event was the Alpine–Slovenian region (63 % of identified sources) due to recycling of precipitation falling over that region 1 d earlier. Implementing three different generalised extreme value (GEV) models, we quantified the return periods for this case to be above 100 years for daily aggregated precipitation, and up to 100 and 10 years for 8 and 1 h aggregations, respectively. The conditional attribution demonstrated that warming since the pre-industrial era caused a small but significant increase of 4 % in total precipitation and 10 % for extreme intensities. The possibility that not just greenhouse-gas-induced warming, but also anthropogenic aerosols affected the intensity of precipitation is investigated through aerosol sensitivity experiments. Our multi-disciplinary approach allowed us to relate interconnected aspects of extreme precipitation. For instance, the link between the unique meteorological conditions of this case and its very large return periods, or the extent to which it is attributable to already-observed anthropogenic climate change.

Changing Trends in Drought Patterns over the Northeastern United States Using Multiple Large Ensemble Datasets

Abstract Since the infamous extreme drought of the 1960s, the climate of the northeastern United States (NEUS) has generally trended toward warmer and wetter conditions. Nonetheless, there is mounting evidence that short-term droughts will continue to pose a significant risk for this region. To better explore the processes governing events such as these, climate models have adopted more complex representations of the fully coupled atmosphere–land–ocean–sea ice system; however, large uncertainties in future projections still persist, with internal variability necessitating large ensembles to understand trends in both rare and high-impact extreme events such as rapidly developing droughts (a term here that includes flash droughts developing on monthly scales). In this study, seven large ensemble (LE) models are employed to answer the outstanding question: How are the frequency and character of drought in the NEUS changing under a warming climate? We find that most LE models indicate the NEUS will experience a long-term wetting trend with more “extremely wet” months, but also more frequent short-term extreme droughts. These changes are associated with increasing precipitation, atmospheric water demand, and climate variability. We also conclude that discrepant trends in precipitation and evapotranspiration variability will lead to increasing anticorrelation of these variables, which is relevant to the intensification of rapidly developing drought, particularly in the spring season. These changes are associated with an increase in evapotranspiration from plants, brought by an earlier emergence of the growing season and denser vegetation. Significance Statement Droughts are extreme events with the potential to produce considerable social and economic damage. Because droughts emerge slowly and are relatively infrequent, large datasets are needed to study these features. Using multiple climate models, each producing multiple long-duration simulations, along with a novel drought index, we characterize rapidly developing droughts (those flash droughts identifiable from monthly data) and understand their drivers in the northeastern United States. We find that short-term extreme droughts are projected to be more frequent, while rapidly developing droughts will become more intense in the spring season. Intensification of rapidly developing droughts is attributed to differences in patterns of precipitation and evapotranspiration (soil evaporation and plant transpiration), which will be magnified by an extended growing season and an increase in vegetation.

Tonga’s National EMT Response to the Hunga-Tonga Hunga-Ha’apai Volcanic Eruption and Tsunami

Background/Introduction:The Tonga Emergency Medical Assistance Team (TEMAT) responded to the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai (HTHH) volcano and tsunami in early 2022. The HTHH volcano erupted violently on January 15, 2022 triggering a tsunami that struck many of Tonga’s 169 islands.1 84% of the country’s population was affected.2 Tonga’s undersea internet cable was cut, stopping most communication. At the time of the eruption/tsunami, Tonga was COVID-19-free with its borders effectively closed, forcing reliance on national emergency resources, including TEMAT.Objectives:Describe TEMAT’s response to the 2022 HTHH volcano eruption and tsunami.Method/Description:TEMAT deployed four rotations of clinical and public health teams in response to the eruption/tsunami. Team members included clinicians from the Ministry of Health, with logistics support from His Majesty’s Armed Forces. TEMAT carried out emergency assessments, facilitated medical evacuations, aided in the evacuation of an entire island’s population, and provided essential health services.Results/Outcomes:From January 17 through March 4, 2022, TEMAT cared for 381 patients including patients with non-communicable diseases (>50), psychosocial complaints (39), communicable diseases (27), and traumatic injuries (13). The team supported five referrals to higher level care, conducted patients home visits, aided in health center repairs, and responded to a boat sinking during their deployment.Conclusion:TEMAT’s deployment demonstrates that deployment-ready and self-sufficient national EMTs are essential for response to sudden-onset disasters in vulnerable countries. A trained and well-prepared national EMT can respond independently, quickly, and effectively to emergencies, despite limited resources and high-impact events.

Dynamic response of wind turbine blade surface material under water droplet high velocity impact

When a wind turbine blade exposure to some degree of rainfall, water droplets in the atmosphere impact the blade at high velocity will causes erosion damages of the leading edge. The damages have significant influence to the aerodynamic performance of the blade, and also the cost of power generation. In this paper, a high velocity impact dynamics model of water droplet impact on wind turbine blade is develops based on SPH-FEM coupling method, where SPH model is used to model the large deformation region of the fluid domain, and FEM method is used to model the small deformation region of the structure domain. Together with properties of gelcoat material on the blade surface, effects of varying impact velocities and angles on the impact response of the gelcoat material are analysed through numerical simulation. The results show that during a high velocity impact event of water droplet, the contact force history appears two peaks. Also contact forces and strains on the blade material decreases with decreasing droplet impact velocity and impact angle, the total contact duration of the droplet during the impact decreases with increasing droplet impact velocity and angle. The present study is expected to provide theoretical guidance for enhancing the erosive capacity of wind turbine blade gelcoat material.

Young people’s situated capacity to imagine a desired post-pandemic future: A qualitative methodology for assessing futures consciousness

Futures consciousness (FC), considered to be the basis for human anticipation, is important for its role in facing uncertainties and delineating alternative courses of action. This is especially so for emerging adults, who are traversing a life stage fraught with uncertainty and complexity. The COVID-19 pandemic as a high-impact event may trigger modes of engaging with the future to become more explicit. Through critical engagement with the 5-dimensional FC model (Ahvenharju, Minkkinen, & Lalot, 2018), we develop a methodology for qualitatively assessing FC. We analyze how emerging Dutch and Greek adults narrate FC dimensions (time perspective, agency beliefs, openness to alternatives, systemic awareness, concern for others) in letters written from the perspective of a desired post-Corona future. Results show that emerging adults, although caught-up in a subjective timeframe in which the pandemic is enduring, think beyond immediate concerns. They do so in a way that conveys some attribution of agency and systemic awareness. Openness to alternatives is shown using several sophisticated linguistic devices. When further developed, the methodology will enable educators and futurists to support individual’s imagination of possible and preferred futures. This may contribute to resilient people and societies in and beyond times of economic, health, and environmental crises.

Sea-level rise in Denmark: paleo context, recent projections and policy implications

We present the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) sea-level projections for four Danish cities (Aarhus, Copenhagen, Esbjerg and Hirtshals) under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) family of climate scenarios. These sea-level changes projected over the next century are up to an order of magnitude larger than those observed over the previous century. At these cities, year 2150 sea-level changes of between 29 and 55 cm are projected under the very low emissions scenario (SSP1-1.9), while changes of between 99 and 123 cm are projected under the very high emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). These differences highlight the potentially significant impact of remaining opportunities for climate change mitigation. Due to this increase in mean sea level, the mean recurrence time between historically extreme events is expected to decrease. Under the very high emissions scenario, the historical 100-year storm flood event will become a 1- to 5-year event at most Danish harbours by 2100. There is considerable uncertainty associated with these sea-level projections, primarily driven by uncertainty in the future evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet and future sterodynamic changes in ocean volume. The AR6 characterises collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet as a low-probability but high-impact event that could cause several metres of sea-level rise around Denmark by 2150. In climate adaptation policy, the scientific landscape is shifting fast. There has been a tremendous proliferation of diverse sea-level projections in recent years, with the most relevant planning target for Denmark increasing c. 50 cm in the past two decades. Translating sea-level rise projections into planning targets requires value judgments about acceptable sea-level risk that depend on local geography, planning timeline and climate pathway. This highlights the need for an overarching national sea-level adaptation plan to ensure municipal plans conform to risk and action standards.

178 Assessing the Sympathetic Response of Physicians and Trainees When Exposed to a Virtual Reality Mass Casualty Incident Simulation

The occurrence of mass casualty incidents (MCIs) is on the rise. An appropriate medical response is predicated on preparation and training. Virtual reality (VR) platforms have previously been shown to be well-received, engaging, and immersive for these situations, but the human physiological responses towards VR MCI training are largely unknown. Controlled recruitment of the sympathetic nervous system has been associated with improved retention of memories and skills and is thus an attractive target for achieving optimal medical readiness for high-impact and stressful events like MCIs.

Lack of bump in public events when recent events prevail

Reminiscence bump refers to the increased recall of events from adolescence and early adulthood. It is a robust phenomenon for personal events, while the evidence for the bump has been inconsistent for public events. The present study addressed lifespan distributions of public events in a nationally representative sample of adults ( N = 1200) in Turkey. We demonstrated a robust recency effect in the temporal distribution of public event memories. When we examined the bump in the most frequently reported events, the recency effect persisted. The only exception was the bump for the military coup in 1980, a relatively more distant event among the most frequent events. Findings suggested that high-impact events in Turkey’s recent past may overshadow the past events. Inline, we discuss the role of the context and age distribution of the sample to explain the inconsistency in the evidence for the reminiscence bump in public events.

The impact of teaching interventions in education for sustainable development – an experimental case study

Aim: Questionnaire research can be used as a teaching instrument and to measure the impacts of education for sustainable development. This paper presents a case study of a teaching intervention regarding students’ perception of operations and (supply) management fragilities, such as dependency on few customers or suppliers; difficult to find employees; and low probability, high impact events for business sustainability. The teaching intervention focused on side effects of innovations, leading to vulnerabilities that can threaten the existence of an enterprise. This research was carried out in the context of the capacity for creating an Early Warning System for small probability, high impact events. The following issues are addressed in the paper: 1). The impact of the teaching intervention on students’ perceptions; 2). Differences in perception between non-attending (N = 128) and attending students (pre-test N = 139; post-test N = 119).
 Design / Research methods: This paper discusses whether teaching interventions can influence the awareness of fragility issues as well as low probability, high impact events. The case-study is based on an experiment in a marketing course for management students of a large private business school in Wrocław (Poland) in April–May 2019. Before start of classes students filled out a questionnaire (Attending Students). A teaching intervention slide was used in every lecture. At the end of the course, all students (also the students absent during the first classes) filled out the repeat questionnaire. Statistical analysis was carried out whether there were differences between Attending Students filling out both questionnaires, and students only filling out the repeat questionnaire (Non Attending Students).
 Conclusions / findings: The findings show that students struggle to grasp the complexities and uncertainties surrounding sustainability and fragility issues in relation to the business context. The teaching interventions had limited impact on the ability of students to engage in these issues, albeit significant differences between attending and non-attending students were observed. A limitation of the results is that this study only concerned a case study of a specific group of students. An implication requiring deeper research is that while teachers can do in-depth exercises and provide lectures, a part of the students, being less motivated to obtain knowledge, is unlikely to grasp sustainability issues, when not included in assignments, examination preparation, or compulsory rather than elective courses.
 JEL: I21, O31, Q01

Long-duration Gamma-Ray Burst and Associated Kilonova Emission from Fast-spinning Black Hole–Neutron Star Mergers

Gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) have been phenomenologically divided into long- and short-duration populations, generally corresponding to collapsar and compact merger origins, respectively. Here, we collect three unique bursts, GRBs 060614, 211211A, and 211227A, all of which are characterized by a long-duration main emission (ME) phase and a rebrightening extended emission (EE) phase, to study their observed properties and their potential origins as neutron star–black hole (NSBH) mergers. NS-first-born (BH-first-born) NSBH mergers tend to contain fast-spinning (nonspinning) BHs that more easily (hardly) allow tidal disruption to occur, while (without) forming electromagnetic signals. We find that NS-first-born NSBH mergers can well interpret the origins of these three GRBs, supported by the following. (1) Their X-ray MEs and EEs show unambiguous fallback accretion signatures, decreasing as ∝ t −5/3, which might account for their long durations. The EEs could result from the fallback accretion of r-process heating materials, which is predicted to occur after NSBH mergers. (2) The beaming-corrected local event-rate density for these types of merger-origin long-duration GRBs is , consistent with that of NS-first-born NSBH mergers. (3) Our detailed analysis of the EE, afterglow, and kilonova of the recent high-impact event GRB 211211A reveals that it could be a merger between a NS and a BH, with an aligned spin of , supporting an NS-first-born NSBH formation channel. A long-duration burst, with a rebrightening fallback accretion signature after the ME, and a bright kilonova, might be commonly observed features for on-axis NSBH mergers. We estimate the multimessenger detection rate between gravitational waves, GRBs, and kilonova emissions from NSBH mergers in O4 (O5) to be ∼0.1 yr−1 (∼1 yr−1).

Improvement of the Resilience of a Microgrid Using Fragility Modeling and Simulation

The modern microgrid is designed to withstand various disruptive events that have a high probability of occurrence but have a low impact on the system. This improves the reliability of the system but does not take into consideration the disruptive events that have a low probability of occurrence but have a large impact on the system, such as extreme weather or natural disasters. Redesigning a microgrid to withstand low probability high impact events is very costly and is not a feasible solution to existing microgrids. This paper proposes a method to improve the resilience of an existing microgrid to quickly recover from low probability high impact events. The method used for this purpose is a combination of Monte Carlo simulation and prioritization of load of the microgrid. The efficacy of the method is examined by modeling microgrids using a fragility model. Using the proposed novel resilience index, the resilience of the IEEE 5-Bus system and IEEE 14-Bus system and the effect of load shedding on the resilience of the microgrid are analyzed and presented. The effect on smaller and larger grids and their resilience is examined. A novel resilience index is used to quantify the improvement of resilience of the proposed method when compared to other methods available in the literature.

Simulation of the impact of parameter manipulations due to cyber-attacks and severe electrical faults on Offshore Wind Farms

Motivated by the transition to renewable energies in the context of ongoing climate change, offshore wind energy is of rising importance for the energy provision on national and international level. This trend, though, puts pressure on the safety and security community to provide appropriate analyses and solutions in regard to safety and security threats. Based on this motivation, this work investigates the internal disturbances in Offshore Wind Farms (OWF) provoked by cyber-attacks and severe electrical faults that might lead to high impact events. Therefore, the influences of these disturbances are quantified using a simulation model that represents electrical and mechanical aspects as well as the protection and control system. Furthermore, the dependence of the system response on to the disturbance characteristics is determined and the critical values of the disturbance characteristics leading to the OWF service interruption or even physical damage are identified. The results indicate in quantitative manner processes in the electrical and mechanical systems during parameter manipulations due to cyber-attacks and severe electrical faults. This, together with the quantitative signatures of the disturbances, enable future improvements of the security and stability of OWF systems.

Two-stage resilience-constrained planning of coupled multi-energy microgrids in the presence of battery energy storages

In recent years, severe weather-related catastrophes have caused irreparable damages to the body of power systems, which has attracted the attention of planners to increase the resilience of power systems. In line with the goals of this issue, this paper introduces a two-stage programming on the basis of resilience oriented model to design solar panels, micro-turbines, and mobile batteries within the multi energy carrier microgrid to increase the resilience of the system against high-impact events. The propounded framework is formulated as mixed-integer quadratic programming that takes investment decisions at the first stage while optimizing operation variables at the second stage in order to reinforce the resilience of the system. An integrated power and gas model is used to increase the perception of readers about the mutual interactions between electricity and heat energy. Therefore, the availability of fuel and the price of the micro turbine are explicitly formulated and evaluated. One-line diagram of 14-bus coupled micro energy grids is used to investigate the efficiency and proficiency of the proposed model. Comparative studies numerically show that the suggested method helps the microgrid operator in identifying optimal solutions to reinforce the resilience of power system against severe events.

Developing disruptive mobility scenarios for rural areas. Participatory mobility scenario building in a Belgian village for the year 2050

BackgroundHistorically, quantitative forecasting methods have been used in transport planning. As forecasts can be unreliable to plan for the medium- and long-term, scenario building has recently been increasingly used. However, scenario building methods often fail to take disruptions and wild cards into account, i.e., low probability but high impact events. When unaccounted for, wild card events, like the COVID-19 pandemic, lower the efficacy of scenario building in policy making, as these events may completely disturb the developed scenarios of the future.MethodsIn this paper, we develop and apply a creative and participatory methodology to develop visions and disrupted scenarios for rural mobility. Our research was carried out in the Belgian village of Oetingen, where inhabitants developed more resilient views of the future by creating disrupted mobility scenarios and a preferred mobility vision for their village for the year 2050 in a participatory scenario building exercise. Wild cards related to mobility were collected from mobility experts and inhabitants in three workshops. Inhabitants were engaged to define their mobility vision on a postcard that was distributed to all houses in the village as well as on a project website. Respondents were invited for a follow-up interview in which their preferred mobility vision was subjected to the wild cards, and participants described how these wild cards would change their preferred vision. As children tend to have more creative ideas, they were engaged via workshops at school.ResultsThis process resulted in mobility scenarios for the village for the year 2050 based on the different wild cards, as well as an overall desired vision. We found that the use of wild cards did not significantly change the scenarios when compared to the vision, although it did make the interviewees step outside of their comfort zones. We also found that the citizens did not have more original and less path-dependent ideas in developing wild cards when compared to experts. Lastly, we found that children have many outside-of-the-box suggestions when it comes to the future. Although some of their ideas can be judged as impractical by today’s standards, many ideas had an indirect implication for mobility in the village and gave insights into children’s priorities, as potential future residents of the village.