Changing Trends in Drought Patterns over the Northeastern United States Using Multiple Large Ensemble Datasets

Abstract

Abstract Since the infamous extreme drought of the 1960s, the climate of the northeastern United States (NEUS) has generally trended toward warmer and wetter conditions. Nonetheless, there is mounting evidence that short-term droughts will continue to pose a significant risk for this region. To better explore the processes governing events such as these, climate models have adopted more complex representations of the fully coupled atmosphere–land–ocean–sea ice system; however, large uncertainties in future projections still persist, with internal variability necessitating large ensembles to understand trends in both rare and high-impact extreme events such as rapidly developing droughts (a term here that includes flash droughts developing on monthly scales). In this study, seven large ensemble (LE) models are employed to answer the outstanding question: How are the frequency and character of drought in the NEUS changing under a warming climate? We find that most LE models indicate the NEUS will experience a long-term wetting trend with more “extremely wet” months, but also more frequent short-term extreme droughts. These changes are associated with increasing precipitation, atmospheric water demand, and climate variability. We also conclude that discrepant trends in precipitation and evapotranspiration variability will lead to increasing anticorrelation of these variables, which is relevant to the intensification of rapidly developing drought, particularly in the spring season. These changes are associated with an increase in evapotranspiration from plants, brought by an earlier emergence of the growing season and denser vegetation. Significance Statement Droughts are extreme events with the potential to produce considerable social and economic damage. Because droughts emerge slowly and are relatively infrequent, large datasets are needed to study these features. Using multiple climate models, each producing multiple long-duration simulations, along with a novel drought index, we characterize rapidly developing droughts (those flash droughts identifiable from monthly data) and understand their drivers in the northeastern United States. We find that short-term extreme droughts are projected to be more frequent, while rapidly developing droughts will become more intense in the spring season. Intensification of rapidly developing droughts is attributed to differences in patterns of precipitation and evapotranspiration (soil evaporation and plant transpiration), which will be magnified by an extended growing season and an increase in vegetation.