PurposeCareer plateau and employee silence are negative employee management phenomena that should be overcome but are challenging. However, relatively speaking, when employees reach a particular career stage, it is inevitable that the hierarchical plateau in the career plateau will occur, while the phenomena of employee silence have the chance to improve. This paper aims to study the influence mechanism of the career plateau on employee silence in an uncertain environment and then provides theoretical support for enhancing the organizational phenomenon of employee silence.Design/methodology/approachAfter considering the effects of career plateau and social desirability of employee silence, this paper obtained 313 samples based on the pilot survey, which were collected anonymously online and offline. Based on passing the data quality test, this experiment uses hierarchical regression, Bootstrap method, interaction graph and slope test to test the mediating variableFindings The results show a significant positive correlation between career plateau and employees' silent behavior. Affective commitment plays a partial mediating role between career plateau and employees' silent behavior. Organizational justice not only negatively moderated the relationship between career plateau and affective commitment but also negatively moderated the indirect effect of career plateau on silent behavior through affective commitment.Originality/valueFirst, based on the theory of uncertainty management and social exchange theory, this paper develops a behavioral response to the organizational environment based on the principle of fair exchange when employees perceive an uncertain environment. This study innovatively applied the two theories together in one study, establishing a link between the two theories. Second, this study explores the influence of career plateau on employee silence and empirically tests the silent behavior based on the previous division of three dimensions of career plateau. The third study explores affective commitment, the black box of the relationship between career plateau and employee silence. This research also enriches the related research on affective commitment.