Hicks Model Research Articles

Application of the Samuelson — Hicks model in the conditions of modern economy Case of Bhutan

In modern conditions, the problem of determining the factors infl uencing such indicators of economic growth as the volume of consumption, the volume of investments in the economy, government spending and GDP can be solved by applying economic, mathematical, econometric modeling. In this article, to solve this problem of determining the key factors, it was decided to use the Samuelson — Hicks econometric model for a closed economy. This allows not only to identify the key factors that have a signifi cant impact on the development of the economy of the country under study, but also to make forecasts of such development. The article discusses the application of the Samuelson — Hicks model in modern conditions on the example of the economic indicators of Bhutan. After conducting this study, we concluded that although this model is not an ideal one for further investigation of the closed economy of Bhutan, the quality of the specifi cation of this model should be recognized as high. In this regard, the Samuelson — Hicks model can be used to make managerial decisions at the macroeconomic level. The conclusions obtained in the course of this study can be used to modernize this econometric model, as well as to make eff ective decisions to stimulate the development of a certain share of a closed economy.

On the Behavior of Solutions of a Modified Samuelson–Hicks Model with Two Accelerators

We show that solutions of a modified Samuelson–Hicks model with two accelerators contain a damping sign-alternating oscillation mode.

Determining and ranking dimensions of knowledge management implementation using Hicks model and fuzzy TOPSIS Technique

Article history: Received July 18, 2012 Received in revised format 10 November 2012 Accepted 15 November 2012 Available online November 19 2012 The 20 century was the age of an industry-based as well as knowledge-based economy. In a knowledge-based economy, knowledge plays an essential role to produce wealth compared with other tangible and physical assets. The purpose of this research is to identify and rank different aspects of knowledge management based on the Hicks model using the fuzzy TOPSIS technique for one of the most prestigious universities in Iran. The proposed model considers four main criteria of knowledge including creation, distribution, storage, and application along with 17 sub-criteria. The Chi-square correlation test indicates a positive and meaningful correlation between four mentioned criteria and knowledge management implementation. Using the fuzzy TOPSIS technique, the results also indicate that “Need for new and updated information and knowledge” was selected as the most important sub-criterion and “Sharing or distribution of knowledge” was selected as the most important main criterion on Hicks model. © 2013 Growing Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimating a modified nonlinear Hicks model: evidence from the Chinese economy (1970‐2007)

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to present a non‐linear Hicks model of the cycle, based on Keynesian theory and economic dynamics.Design/methodology/approachUsing the proposed approach, the paper puts forward a simple method for its empirical estimation based on nonlinear least squares and other relevant techniques.FindingsAn example is given to prove the feasibility and the increased validity of the non‐linear dynamic Hicks model. Analytically, an empirical application for the Chinese economy (1970‐2007) demonstrates the almost ideal performance of the modified model and of the proposed method.Research limitations/implicationsIf research is reported on in the paper, this section must be completed and should include suggestions for future research and any identified limitations in the research process.Practical implicationsWhat outcomes and implications for practice, applications and consequences are identified? Not all papers will have practical implications but most will. What changes to practice should be made as a result of this research/paper?Social implicationsWhat will be the impact on society of this research? How will it influence public attitudes? How will it influence (corporate) social responsibility or environmental issues? How could it inform public or industry policy? How might it affect quality of life? Not all papers will have social implications.Originality/valueTo the best of the authors' knowledge, there has not been any attempt in the literature to formally estimate the famous nonlinear Hicks model of the cycle because of a lack of the appropriate methodology.

수중폭발 충격파와 가스구체 압력파를 함께 고려한 구조물의 동적응답해석

Two typical impact loadings, shock wave and gas bubble pulse, due to UNDEX(UNDerwater EXplosion), should be considered together for the closest response analysis of structure subjected to UNDEX to a reality. Since these two impact loadings have different response time bands, however, their response characteristics of structure are different from each other. It is impossible to consider these effectively under the current computational environment and the mathematical model has not yet been developed. Whereas Hicks model approximates the fluid-structure interaction due to gas bubble pulse as virtual mass effect, treating the flow by the response of gas bubble after shock wave as incompressible ideal fluid contrary to the compressible flow due to shock wave, Geers-Hunter model could make the closest response analysis of structure under UNDEX to a real one as a mathematical model considering the fluid-structure interaction due to shock wave and gas bubble pulse together using acoustic wave theory and DAA(Doubly Asymptotic Approximation). In this study, the application and effectiveness of integrated dynamic response analysis of submerged structure was examined with the analysis of the shock wave and gas bubble pulse together.

Surface tension effect on stability of two-phase stratified flow

In this paper, the effect of wavelength on the disturbed interface of a two-phase stratified regime will be discussed. It is assumed that the two phases are completely separated and are flowing parallel to each other along the duct. In order to analyze the stability of the two-phase stratified flow, a small disturbance is considered at the interface. Growth or decline of the interface disturbance, relative velocity and surface tension in time will be discussed analytically and numerically. Numerical analysis is applied using the finite difference method. The results of the numerical method are compared with the analytical results of prior investigators. The results of the present paper show that the non-linear conservation equations model discussed is capable of predicting two-phase stratified flow behavior. The surface tension increases the physics of the model and has a positive effect on the convergence of the numerical result of the two-phase flow model. The convergence of the numerical results was obtained and is presented in the results section of the paper. This conclusion is unique to this paper and the Ransom and Hicks model [Ransom, V.H., Hicks, D.L., 1984. Hyperbolic two-pressure models for two-phase flow. J. Comput. Phys. 53, 124–151].

A feedback policy for a modified Samuelson–Hicks model

Under the assumption that the income Yt follows a Samuelson–Hicks type of model, we calculate a policy variable Gt , in closed form, so that Yt satisfies an ideal law being an influence variable. The approach uses some recently developed tools of non-linear feedback design; it is fully parameterized and allows the dynamic change of the influence variable . From the control theory point of view, we solve a non-linear model matching problem and produce a policy instrument that shapes the income Yt within a desired family of behaviours.

British Waterways: a study in the search for sustaihnability

This paper applies the Hicks model of sustainable income to that part of the UK waterways system administered by British Waterways. The model stresses the need to maintain intact the overall capital stock and examines the implications of this principle for the funding of the system and for its administration. A case study of a critical component in the system, the Bittell Reservoirs in North Worcestershire, demonstrates the implications of lack of funding for future sustainability, both in terms of ‘keeping the boats moving’ and in terms of the ecological, recreational and heritage value of the site. The Hicksian model is particularly apposite to the application of an admittedly loose concept (sustainability) to a situation where there is a reasonably clearly defined capital stock. Where such a stock is under threat, the focus placed on to translating ‘income’ into ‘revenue’ highlights key issues of policy in preventing further deterioration of an important national asset. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment.

A reconsideration of Hicks' non-linear trade cycle model

The dynamics of Hicks' classical non-linear trade cycle model is reconsidered. The model is an unstable multiplier-accelerator model with an ‘income ceiling’ and an ‘investment floor’. In the simplest two-dimensional version of the model (the basic Hicks model), all consumption lags one period behind income, while all investment outlays are concentrated in the period immediately following the originating change in income. We show that, in addition to stable cycles, so-called ‘quasi-periodic attractors’ can occur in the basic Hicks model. However, in the simplest version of the model, the dynamics are always regular and chaotic income fluctuations do not occur. When consumption and/or investment is distributed over several time periods, higher dimensional versions of the Hicks model are obtained, and the dynamic behaviour can be much more complicated. We show that in the simplest version, the three-dimensional Hicks model, strange-chaotic attractors can occur. The three-dimensional Hicks model also exhibits coexistence of different attractors.

Periodic, almost periodic and chaotic behaviour in Hicks' non-linear trade cycle model

Hicks' non-linear trade cycle model is an unstable multiplier-accelerator model together with an ‘income ceiling’ and an ‘investment floor’. We show that in the simplest, two-dimensional version of the model the income time paths are always regular: either periodic or almost periodic (quasi-periodic) behaviour occurs. When consumption and/or investment is distributed over several time periods, higher dimensional versions of the model are obtained. We show that in the three-dimensional Hicks model irregular, chaotic income time paths may occur.

A test of uncertainty, expectations, and error response in two strike models

An information-uncertainty form of the Hicks strike model is used to test earlier work on the role of forecasts and uncertainty in determining strike activity. The expected zero coefficients for economic forecasts appear in preferred equations, but the expected positive coefficient for inflation uncertainty often appears as significantly negative. Alternative formulations and reasoning make the results appear somewhat more plausible. The performance of the Hicks model is contrasted with an updated Ashenfelter and Johnson model, which performs and predicts well without any untidy coefficients. Both models predict better than naive forecasting. Certain data and concept refinements are added to the testing of both analyses to bring them closer to the spirit of their models and to established research in wage determination and macroeconomics.

A Model of Chinese National Income Determination

A model consisting of a consumption function and an investment function is used to explain Chinese annual data in constant prices from 1953 to 1982. The data confirm Robert Hall's version of the permanent income hypothesis and the accelerations principle. Deviations of the observations from predictions of this model are attributed to political factors, including the Great Leap Forward in 195962, the Cultural Revolution in 1967-68, and the special government policies in 1978 and 1981.

A Hicksian Model of Labour Turnover and Local Wage Determination

Employers have a variety of reasons for attempting to stabilize turnover in their labour force. For example, specific skill requirements, the added costs of training inherent in hiring new workers, and the absolute demand for labour may stimulate firms to minimize labour turnover. One way of reducing turnover is for the individual firm to raise its wage rates. However, depending upon the relative tightness of the local labour market (reflected in the rates of hiring and unemployment), this could result in widespread wage competition amongst employers and general increases in the aggregate local wage rate. The significance of quits, hires, and unemployment are explored, in an attempt to explain differential urban wage inflation in the United States. Emphasis is placed on Hicks's model of labour turnover which emphasizes the firm's management of its labour needs. This model is analysed in a time-series framework over the period 1970–1979; a decade of rapid inflation and general stagnation in the United States.

Models of Capital Accumulation and Economic Instability

T HE object of this paper is to demonstrate that it is exceedingly difficult, if not impossible, to develop a theory of the business cycle on the basis of a simple multiplier-accelerator model. Such theories have experienced considerable popularity during the postwar years, even though it can be shown that they do not constitute internally consistent systems useful in describing the economic instability encountered in capitalistic economies. The particular cycle models under discussion here assume a relatively high capital-output coefficient which implies an excessive degree of income instability. To avoid unrealistically high or low levels of income, exogenous ceilings and floors are introduced into the model which limit income changes in either direction. Here it will be demonstrated that the subsidiary assumption of floors and ceilings represents a curiously round-about method of avoiding most implications of the assumption of the fixed capital-output ratio which underlies the whole model. It is necessary to substitute a more flexible production function for the postulated constant accelerator in order to avoid these unrealistic implications within a fairly simple theoretical model. The nonlinear accelerator model, which was developed by Hicks and Goodwin, is probably the most sophisticated model built upon the interaction of constant multiplier and acceleration coefficients.' Here we shall use the Hicks model as an example. Already in his review of Harrod's Towards a Dynamic Economics, Hicks presented an outline of his later theory and stated what he conceived to be the central problem of a theory of economic instability:

Oscillation et croissance

Oscillation and growth. The world economy exhibits both a trend and oscillations. These phenomena have traditionally been dissociated and studied separately. The trend-oscillation dichotomy has given rise to an exogenous-endogenous dichotomy, a long-term — short-term dichotomy and a strudural-conjundural dichotomy. The cycle dissociated from its trend is, to use Kaldor's expression, a static cycle. It derives from physics and has given rise to many models with either an implicit oscillator (Aftalion, Hawtrey) or an explicit one (Kaldor, Samuelson, Metzler). All show that a trendless cycle is possible. The trend without cycles is the older approach : Smith, Ricardo, Malthus considered secular movements fundamental, oscillations negligible. The trend may, first, merely be expressed as an annual rale of growth (Harrod’s growth coefficient) based on observable data. It is, secondly, a phenomenon to be explained : growth is governed by increasing population and productivity, and institutional rigidities. The 'Kondratieff wave is however a problem case in the trend-oscillation dichotomy : is it due to exogenous (or structural ) causes, or endogenous (or confunclural) ones ? The dissociation of trend and cycle is, in fact, dangerous ; they must be studied jointly. Two approaches are possible. According to the first, growth is a succession of open cycles, i. e. is generated by cyclical forces. According to the second, cycles are a by-product of growth (Harrod's and Domar’s view) ; it is well-known that a change in the rale of growth of one series can change the direction of another : a crisis is thus equated to a change in the rale of growth. (An intermediate case is Hicks's model : cycles are sandwiched between a rising floor and ceiling. But these limits, as Goodwin has shown, remain unexplained). The first approach (cycles determining growth) is by far the most frequently adopted. The second approach should now be developed. This would entail, in particular, the study of economic structures — a vague term which needs expliciting — the importance of which has been stressed by Akerman.