Incidence Rate Of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Research Articles

Incidence and predictors of hepatocellular carcinoma in NAFLD without diagnosed cirrhosis: a nationwide real-world U.S. study.

A substantial proportion of patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD)-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) do not have cirrhosis. Data regarding the incidence and predictors of HCC development in NAFLD without cirrhosis are limited. We conducted a large, national study of NAFLD patients without documented cirrhosis to examine the incidence and predictors for HCC development. This retrospective study included 751,603 NAFLD patients (54% female) without documented cirrhosis derived from the deidentified Optum Clinformatics® Data Mart Database. Patients with cirrhosis, platelets < 120,000/µL or FIB-4 values > 2.67 were excluded. The mean age was 53.7 ± 15.0years, 45.9% were male, 39.5% had diabetes, 57.6% were White, 18.4% Hispanic, 8.2% Black and 4.9% were Asian. The mean platelet count was 264,000 ± 72,000/µL, and 96.3% of patients had a FIB-4 < 1.30. Over 1,686,607 person-years of follow-up, there were 76 incident cases of HCC, resulting in an HCC incidence rate of 0.05 per 1000 person-years. There was a higher HCC incidence rate among patients with platelets ≤ 150,000/µL, versus those with platelets > 150,000/µL (0.23 per 1000 person-years, vs. 0.04 per 1000 person-years, p = 0.02) but not in subgroup analyses for age, sex, race/ethnicity or diabetes. Using multivariable Cox proportional hazards model adjusted multiple confounders, platelet count ≤ 150,000/µL remained an independent predictor of HCC development (adjusted HR 5.80, 95% CI 1.67-20.1, p = 0.006). HCC incidence in NAFLD without documented cirrhosis was below the threshold for cost-effective HCC surveillance in overall and multiple subgroup analyses. Platelet count < 150,000/µL may be a useful predictor of HCC development in this population.

Predictive models for hepatocellular carcinoma development after sustained virological response in advanced hepatitis C

Background & aimsLife-long hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance is recommended after sustained virological response (SVR) in patients with advanced hepatitis C. Since the identification of patients who could be safely discontinued for surveillance is essential, we aimed to identify subsets of patients with low-risk HCC. Methods491 patients with advanced and compensated fibrosis (≥F3) were prospectively followed after achieving SVR with interferon-free therapies. Clinical–biological parameters and liver stiffness measurement (LSM) were performed before starting treatment (ST) and at SVR, and HCC surveillance was carried out. ResultsDuring a median follow-up of 49.8 months, 29 (5.9%) patients developed HCC [incidence rate: 1.6/100 patient-years (PYs)]. Two predictive models based on LSM (Model-A) or FIB-4 score (Model-B) were proposed. Only SVR parameters were included in the models, because they showed a higher accuracy for predicting HCC than ST measurements. Variables independently associated with HCC were LSM (HR, 1.03; 95% CI, 1.01–1.05), age (HR, 1.04; 95% CI, 1.01–1.08) and albumin levels (HR, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.84–0.97) in Model-A, and FIB-4 (HR, 1.22; 95% CI, 1.08–1.37) and albumin (HR, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.84–0.97) in model-B. Both models allow HCC risk stratification, identifying low-risk groups with an HCC incidence rate of 0.16/100 and 0.25/100 PYs, respectively. An overall increased hazard of HCC was observed over time. ConclusionSimple models based on non-invasive markers of liver fibrosis, LSM or FIB-4, together with age and albumin levels at SVR permit to identify subsets of patients with HCC risk clearly <1%/year, for whom HCC surveillance might not be cost-effective.

Race/ethnicity and sex differences in the association between area-level arsenic exposure concentration and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) incidence rates in Texas. An ecological study

IntroductionTexas has the highest rates of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in the United States. Exposure to toxicants may play a role in liver disease. Several mechanisms of arsenic carcinogenesis have been proposed, however, the evidence in human populations is limited to associations between HCC and ingestion of arsenic-contaminated drinking water. Through an ecological study, we examined associations between ambient arsenic and HCC incidence rates. MethodsPrimary outcome was HCC incidence rates based on Texas Cancer Registry (TCR) data. Primary exposure of interest was the simulated census-tract level estimate of arsenic exposure concentration (EC) from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 2011 National Air Toxics Assessment (NATA). We analyzed the association between the arsenic EC and HCC using the negative binomial Poisson regression model separately for six study groups that were based on race/ethnicity and sex. We adjusted the main analyses for selected characteristics. ResultsTexas has 5265 census tracts and TCR reported 18,235 new ≥20 years old HCC diagnoses between 2007 and 2015. We observed significant differences along racial-ethnic and sex groups while accounting for socioeconomic deprivation, urban/rural residency, and senior residents’ health insurance status. Census tracts with the highest arsenic EC had elevated rates of HCC among NH black men (Quintile 5 vs. Quintile 1: IRR = 2.18, 95% CI: 1.66–2.86), NH black women (Quintile 5 vs. Quintile 1: IRR = 1.72, 95% CI: 1.33–2.22) and NH white men (Quintile 5 vs. Quintile 1: IRR = 1.38, 95% CI: 1.24–1.54). The associations in the remaining study groups were either inconsistent or attenuated. ConclusionsOur finding suggests a potential inhalation pathway for the Arsenic-HCC association; however, the ecological nature of our study precludes the interpretation of a causal link between exposure to aerial arsenic and HCC. This finding needs to be further examined in cohort studies.

Statin use and the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma among patients with chronic hepatitis B: an emulated target trial using longitudinal nationwide population cohort data

BackgroundNo randomized controlled trials have been completed to see whether statin can decrease hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients. We used large-scale, population-based, observational data to emulate a target trial with two groups, statin user and statin non-user.MethodsAmong 1,379,708 nonunique individuals from the Korean National Health Insurance Service data, 2,915 CHB patients with serum cholesterol level of 200 mg/dL or higher who started statin therapy and 8,525 propensity-score matched CHB patients with serum cholesterol level of 200 mg/dL or higher who did not start statin therapy were analyzed for the development of HCC. In addition, liver cancer or liver-related mortality and all-cause mortality were assessed.ResultsDuring follow-up, 207 participants developed HCC. Incidence rate of HCC was 0.2 per 1,000 person-years in the statin user group and 0.3 per 1,000 person-years in the statin non-user group. Fully adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for incident HCC comparing statin user group to statin nonuser group was 0.56 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.39 to 0.80). The association between statin use and decreased HCC risk was consistent in all subgroups analyzed. Fully adjusted HR comparing statin user to statin nonuser was 0.59 (95% CI: 0.35 to 0.99) for liver cancer or liver-related mortality and 0.93 (95% CI: 0.78 to 1.11) for all-cause mortality.ConclusionsStatin might have a benefit for preventing HCC in CHB patients with elevated cholesterol levels. Statin should be actively considered for CHB patients with dyslipidemia.

How the Underlying Etiology of Cirrhosis Impacts Response to SBRT

In the US, incidence rates of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) have more than tripled and death rates have doubled since 1980. In 2022, it is expected for 41,260 new cases to be diagnosed with 30,520 deaths. Many etiologies contribute to the development of HCC including alcoholic cirrhosis, cryptogenic cirrhosis, HCV, HBV, NASH, and genetic disorders like hereditary hemochromatosis. An increasing number of patients are not candidates for curative options such as resection or transplant and the role of alternative liver directed as therapies has increased. SBRT has emerged as a safe and effective option, but there is little known about the outcomes related to the etiology of the HCC. The purpose of this study is to characterize the rates of toxicity and efficacy between different HCC etiologies in patients who were treated with SBRT. A single institutional database was compiled of all patients with HCC who were treated with SBRT. Patients with HCC etiologies of HCV, alcoholic cirrhosis, or NASH cirrhosis who received SBRT and monitored with liver function tests and imaging (MRI or CT) and were not transplanted were included Demographic information, disease etiology, all treatment courses, lab values, radiologic response, and follow-up were collected on all patients. SPSS was used to analyze the data. Consecutive patients (n = 37, 43 courses of radiation) who received SBRT between 2013- January 2022 were included. Most patients were male (n = 32, 86.5%) and average age was 64.73 ± 7.42 years (range: 50-82 years). A majority of patients had either HCV or HCV and alcoholic cirrhosis (n = 28, 75.7%) and there were no baseline difference in child Pugh score, tumor size, or number of prior treatments. Most patients were treated with 50Gy/5 fx (n = 26, 70.3%) with 5 others being treated with 45Gy/5fx to meet mean liver constraints. Most patients had a decrease in ALT (n = 22, 59.5%) while almost half of patients had a decrease in AFP (n = 14, 48.3%) at average follow-up of 11.84 ± 5.35 months. There was a significant correlation between HCC etiology and change in bilirubin with patients with HCV being more likely to have increases in total bilirubin (χ2 (6) = 17.5, p < 0.01). Patients with HCV induced cirrhosis may be more fragile and have a significant increased risk of toxicity after SBRT based on total bilirubin changes. Most patients did have a decrease in ALT showing potential for some improvement in liver function with SBRT. However, almost half of patients have some biologic efficacy with SBRT independent of HCC etiology. Further studies should include looking at the biologic differences in the etiologies and what treatment liver-directed therapies may be best for each population.

A novel formula used for predicting hepatocellular carcinoma after the achievement of sustained virologic response by direct-acting antivirals in patients with chronic hepatitis C.

Although eliminating HCV can prevent hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), some patients develop HCC even after obtaining sustained virologic response (SVR). Previously, we developed a new formula to predict advanced liver fibrosis. This study aimed to clarify the usefulness of this formula for predicting HCC after achieving SVR. Among 351 consecutive patients who had been treated with direct-acting antivirals, 299 were included in this study. New formula scores were used as a marker for predicting liver fibrosis and as a predictive model for HCC incidence. The participants were 172 men and 127 women with a median age of 68 years. The median new formula score was -1.291. The cumulative HCC incidence rates were 4.3%, 9.7%, and 12.5% at 1, 3, and 5 years, respectively. The cumulative incidence of HCC was significantly higher in patients with a history of HCC than in those without treatment history of HCC (P = 2.52×10-26). Multivariate analysis revealed that male (HR = 6.584, 95% CI = 1.291-33.573, P = 0.023) and new formula score (HR = 1.741, 95% CI = 1.041-2.911, P = 0.035) were independent factors associated with the development of HCC in patients without a treatment history of HCC. The optimal cutoff value for predicting the development of HCC was -0.214. The cumulative incidence rates of HCC in patients with new formula scores ≥-0.214 were 5.4%, 15.3%, and 15.3% at 1, 3, and 5 years, respectively, whereas the incidence rates of HCC in patients with new formula scores <-0.214 were 0.0%, 0.6%, and 4.8%, respectively (P = 2.12×10-4). In conclusion, this study demonstrated the usefulness of new formula scores as a predictor of HCC after achieving SVR, especially in patients without past treatment history of treatment for HCC.

Fuzheng Huayu capsules reducing development of hepatocellular carcinoma in cirrhotic patients with chronic hepatitis B based on the ratio of neutrophils/lymphocytes

Objective: To explore the advantage of Fuzheng Huayu capsule in patients with hepatitis B cirrhosis based on neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio (NLR) risk stratification in reducing the incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Methods: 916 cases diagnosed with hepatitis B cirrhosis and followed up for five years from January 2011 to January 2016 at Beijing Ditan Hospital Affiliated with Capital Medical University were included, and clinical data were collected. Patients were divided into a combination group and an antiviral group according to whether they were treated with anti-fibrosis for≥6 months. The antiviral group was treated with entecavir or tenofovir disoproxil, while the combination group was treated with Fuzheng Huayu capsules based on the antiviral therapy. The incidence of HCC was compared between the two groups of patients within five years. The advantaged groups treated with Fuzheng Huayu capsule were explored based on NLR risk stratification. The independent sample t-test and Mann-Whitney U test were used to compare measurement data between two groups. Categorical variable data were compared using either the χ(2) test or Fisher's exact probability method. The incidence of HCC in the two groups of patients was analyzed through the Kalplan-Merier curve and compared using the log-rank method. Results: There were 299 (32.6%) and 617 (67.4%) cases in the combined group and the antiviral group, respectively. A total of 154 (16.8%) patients developed HCC during the follow-up period. The five-year cumulative incidence of HCC in the combination group was lower than that in the antiviral group (10.7% vs. 19.8%, χ(2) = 11.848, P = 0.000 4). Patients with baseline NLR>3 had an increased risk of HCC. According to NLR risk stratification, there were 191 cases in the low-risk group (NLR<1.4), 462 cases in the medium-risk group (NLR1.4 ~ 3.0), and 263 cases in the high-risk group (NLR>3). Among medium to high-risk patients, the incidence of HCC was significantly reduced in the combination group (11.5% vs. 19.4%, χ(2) = 4.519, P = 0.029; 13.2% vs. 26.2%, χ(2) = 5.258, P = 0.019), while there was no statistically significant difference in the incidence of HCC among the low-risk group (P = 0.38). Conclusion: Compared with antiviral treatment alone, Fuzheng Huayu capsules combined with antiviral treatment can better reduce the five-year HCC incidence rate in patients with hepatitis B cirrhosis. Medium-and high-risk patients with NLR stratification are the most advantageous population to be treated with Fuzheng Huayu capsules.

The incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma and clearance of hepatitis B surface for CHB patients in the indeterminate phase: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Nearly 30%-40% of patients with chronic hepatitis B do not fall into any of the traditional natural history classification and thus are classified as indeterminate. However, it is unclear whether patients in the indeterminate phase (IP) are at a higher risk for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) than those in the defined phases (DP) and would benefit from antiviral therapy. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of HCC incidence and HBsAg clearance among patients in the IP versus DP. We defined the clinical phases as per the AASLD 2018 hepatitis B guidance. We searched PubMed, Embase, Medline, and Web of Science for relevant studies that reported HCC incidence or HBsAg clearance in IP versus DP patients published between January 2007 and March 2023. Annual HCC incidence and HBsAg clearance rates were pooled using a random/common-effects model. We analyzed data from 14 studies, comprising 7798 IP patients (222 patients developed HCC and 239 achieved HBsAg clearance) and 10,725 DP patients. The pooled annual HCC incidence was 2.54 cases per 1,000 person-years (95% CI, 1.14-4.39) and HBsAg clearance rate was 12.36 cases per 1,000 person-years (95% CI, 10.70-14.13) for the IP patients. IP patients were associated with significantly higher HCC incidence risk (RR = 1.64, 95% CI, 1.34-2.00) and slightly lower annual HBsAg clearance rate (RR = 0.83, 95% CI, 0.70-0.99) than the DP patients. In addition, HBeAg-negative IP patients (2.31%; 95% CI, 0.87-4.45) showed a significantly higher HCC incidence than those who were HBeAg positive (0.00%; 95% CI, 0.00-0.99) (p< 0.001). The Asia-Pacific region IP patients (4.30%; 95% CI, 2.07-7.27) were also associated with a higher HCC incidence versus Europe (0.05%; 95% CI, 0.00-1.39) (p< 0.001). However, there were no significant differences between different strategies (treated vs. untreated: 2.56%; 95% CI, 1.01-4.63 vs. 1.61%; 95% CI, 0.00-5.81, p = 0.09), and heterogeneity was substantial across the studies (I2 = 89%). The systematic review and meta-analysis showed a high HCC incidence and low HBsAg clearance among patients in the IP, especially for HBeAg-negative patients and the Asian population. We emphasize that future multicenter prospective cohort studies or randomized trials are needed to verify if expanding antiviral therapy for patients in the IP is associated with reduced HCC risk or good treatment outcomes.

Incidence of Etiology-specific Hepatocellular Carcinoma: Diverging Trends and Significant Heterogeneity by Race and Ethnicity

The main causes of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) include chronic hepatitis C and B viral infections (HCV, HBV), nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), and alcohol-related disease (ALD). Etiology-specific HCC incidence rates and temporal trends on a population-basis are needed to improve HCC control and prevention. All 14,420 HCC cases from the Florida statewide cancer registry were individually linked to data from the hospital discharge agency and the viral hepatitis department to determine the predominant etiology of each case diagnosed during 2010 to 2018. Age-adjusted incidence rates (AAIRs) were used to assess the intersection between etiology and detailed race-ethnicity. Etiology-specific temporal trends based on diagnosis year were assessed using Joinpoint regression. HCV remains the leading cause of HCC among men, but since 2017 NAFLD-HCC is the leading cause among women. HCV-HCC AAIRs are particularly high among U.S.-born minority men, including Puerto Rican (10.9 per 100,000), African American (8.0 per 100,000), and U.S.-born Mexican American men (7.6 per 100,000). NAFLD is more common among all Hispanics and Filipinos and HBV-HCC among Asian and Haitian black men. HCV-HCC surpasses HBV-HCC in Asian women. ALD-HCC is high among specific Hispanic male groups. Population-based HCV-HCC rates experienced a rapid decline since 2015 (-9.6% annually), whereas ALD-HCC (+6.0%) and NAFLD-HCC (+4.3%) are rising (P < .05). New direct acting anti-viral drugs have impacted rates of HCV-HCC, offsetting important increases in both ALD- and NAFLD-HCC. Hispanics may be a group of concern because of higher rates for ALD- and NAFLD-HCC. HCC etiology varies remarkably and may warrant specific interventions by detailed race-ethnicity.

Analysis of genetic factors associated with fatty liver disease-related hepatocellular carcinoma.

Single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in PNPLA3 and hydroxysteroid 17-beta dehydrogenase 13 (HSD17B13) genes are associated with fatty liver disease (FLD) progression and carcinogenesis. In the present study, we evaluated the characteristics of Japanese FLD patients according to HSD17B13 polymorphisms. We enrolled 402 patients who were clinically and pathologically diagnosed with FLD (alcoholic: 63 cases, nonalcoholic: 339 cases) at our hospital in 1990-2018 (228 males; median age: 54.9 [14.6-83.6] years). FLD patients with HSD17B13 A/A (212 cases) and others (A/AA or AA/AA; 190 cases) were compared. Compared to patients with HSD17B13 A/A and others, those with the A/A genotype showed increased incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) (A/A vs. others; 18.4% vs. 9.5%, p = 0.01), cardiovascular diseases (14.2% vs. 4.2%, p < 0.01), and hypertension (56.6% vs. 47.4%, p = 0.06). In patients without A/A, the HCC incidence was significantly reduced in those with alcohol-related FLD, fibrosis-4 index <2.67, and the PNPLA3 CC genotype; however, there was no significant difference in nonalcoholic-FLD. Patients without HSD17B13 A/A showed severe steatosis (77% vs. 88.6%, p < 0.01). New HCC developed in 11 cases and the 5-year incidence rate of HCC was 3.3% in patients with both PNPLA3 GG/GC and HSD17B13 A/A, which was significantly higher than the rate for those with other SNP profiles (0.6%, p = 0.03). Inhibiting HSD17B13 activity may prevent HCC development, particularly in alcohol-related FLD and low-risk patients. Therefore, combinations of SNPs and other risk factors can be used for screening FLD-HCC.

Clinico-histological and molecular features of hepatocellular carcinoma from nonalcoholic fatty liver disease.

Patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) continue to increase with the epidemics of obesity, and NAFLD is estimated to become the most prevalent etiology of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Recently, NAFLD-HCC has been recognized to have clinico-histologically and molecularly distinct features from those from other etiologies, including a lower incidence rate of HCC and less therapeutic efficacy to immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs). Consistent with the clinical observations that up to 50% of NAFLD-HCC occurs in the absence of cirrhosis, the imbalance of pro- and antitumorigenic hepatic stellate cells termed as myHSC and cyHSC can contribute to the creation of an HCC-prone hepatic environment, independent of the absolute fibrosis abundance. Immune deregulations by accumulated metabolites in NAFLD-affected livers, such as a fatty-acid-induced loss of cytotoxic CD4 T cells serving for immune surveillance and "auto-aggressive" CXCR6+ CD8 T cells, may promote hepatocarcinogenesis and diminish therapeutic response to ICIs. Steatohepatitic HCC (SH-HCC), characterized by the presence of fat accumulation in tumor cells, ballooned tumor cells, Mallory-Denk body, interstitial fibrosis, and intratumor immune cell infiltration, may represent a metabolic reprogramming for adapting to a lipid-rich tumor microenvironment by downregulating CPT2 and leveraging its intermediates as an "oncometabolite." Genome-wide analyses suggested that SH-HCC may be more responsive to ICIs given its mutual exclusiveness with β-catenin mutation/activation that promotes immune evasion. Thus, further understanding of NAFLD-specific hepatocarcinogenesis and HCC would enable us to improve the current daily practice and eventually the prognoses of patients with NAFLD.

Trends in hepatocellular carcinoma stage by racial/ethnic group in the United States, 1992–2019

Background & AimsAlthough incidence rates of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) began to decline in the United States in the past decade, disparities in rates among racial/ethnic groups have persisted. Whether disparities in stage at diagnosis have remained over time, however, is unclear. MethodsNational Cancer Institute’s Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) program has created a new staging-over-time variable that facilitates the examination of trends in HCC stage. Thus, the proportions of HCCs diagnosed by stage between 1992 and 2019 were examined among non-Hispanic White, non-Hispanic Black (NHB), Hispanic, Asian/Pacific Islander, and American Indian/Alaska Native (AI/AN) individuals. HCC incidence between 1992 and 2019 was also analysed using Joinpoint regression. ResultsBetween 1992 and 2019, the proportion of stage 1 HCCs increased and the proportion of stage 4 HCCs decreased among non-Hispanic White, NHB, Hispanic, and Asian/Pacific Islander individuals. Among AI/AN persons, the proportion of stage 1 tumours remained stable, and the proportion of stage 4 tumours declined. In the most recent time period, NHB individuals had the lowest proportions of stage 1 HCCs (32%) and the highest proportion of stage 4 HCCs (20%) of any group. Joinpoint analysis found that HCC incidence began to decline by 2013 among all groups except AI/AN individuals, the only group that had an increase in incidence. ConclusionsDespite generally favourable trends in HCC stage and incidence rates, disparities remain. NHB persons continue to have less favourable stages at diagnosis, and incidence rates continue to increase among AI/AN persons. Impact and implicationsHCC incidence rates among most United States racial/ethnic groups began to decline in recent years, but whether stage at diagnosis also improved was unclear. As a result, a new SEER stage variable was used to examine stage trends by race/ethnicity. Although the finding of generally favourable trends in stage as well as incidence is encouraging, continuity disparities in both stage and incidence require serious attention.

Medico-social aspects of hepatocellular carcinoma

Oncological diseases are one of the leading health problems both in the world and in Kazakhstan, second only to cardiovascular diseases. Hepatocellular carcinoma occupies the 8th place in the structure of oncopathologies, has an unfavorable prognosis and an unfavorable course. According to the WHO, more than 1.3 million people die each year from hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The incidence rate of HCC in Kazakhstan is up to 5.5 cases per 100 thousand of the population, and the mortality rate remains high (about 1000 people annually). In 2017, 82.3% of HCC patients died before the end of the year. Five-year survival in HCC does not exceed 18%, and postoperative recurrence is about 50%.

Hepatocellular Carcinoma Incidence Threshold for Surveillance in Virologically Cured Hepatitis C Individuals

Guidelines recommend biannual surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in hepatitis C individuals with cirrhosis if the HCC incidence rate is above 1.5 per 100 person-years (PY). However, the incidence threshold for surveillance in individuals who achieve a virologic cure is unknown. We estimated the HCC incidence rate above which routine HCC surveillance is cost-effective in this growing population of virologically cured hepatitis C individuals with cirrhosis or advanced fibrosis. We developed a Markov-based microsimulation model of the natural history of HCC in individuals with hepatitis C who achieved virologic cure with oral direct-acting antivirals. We used published data on the natural history of hepatitis C, competing risk post virologic cure, HCC tumor progression, real-world HCC surveillance adherence, contemporary HCC treatment options and associated costs, and utilities of different health states. We estimated the HCC incidence above which biannual HCC surveillance using ultrasound and alpha-fetoprotein would be cost-effective. In virologically cured hepatitis C individuals with cirrhosis or advanced fibrosis, HCC surveillance is cost-effective if HCC incidence exceeds 0.7 per 100 PY using $100,000 per quality-adjusted life year willingness-to-pay. At this HCC incidence, routine HCC surveillance would result in 2650 and 5700 additional life years per 100,000 cirrhosis and advanced fibrosis persons, respectively, compared with no surveillance. At $150,000 willingness-to-pay, surveillance is cost-effective if HCC incidence exceeds 0.4 per 100 PY. Sensitivity analysis showed that the threshold mostly remained below 1.5 per 100 PY. The contemporary HCC incidence threshold is much lower than the previous 1.5% incidence value used to guide HCC surveillance decisions. Updating clinical guidelines could improve the early diagnosis of HCC.

Simple new clinical score to predict hepatocellular carcinoma after sustained viral response with direct-acting antivirals

The time point of the most precise predictor of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development after viral eradication with direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapy is unclear. In this study we developed a scoring system that can accurately predict the occurrence of HCC using data from the optimal time point. A total of 1683 chronic hepatitis C patients without HCC who achieved sustained virological response (SVR) with DAA therapy were split into a training set (999 patients) and a validation set (684 patients). The most accurate predictive scoring system to estimate HCC incidence was developed using each of the factors at baseline, end of treatment, and SVR at 12 weeks (SVR12). Multivariate analysis identified diabetes, the fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index, and the α-fetoprotein level as independent factors at SVR12 that contributed to HCC development. A prediction model was constructed with these factors that ranged from 0 to 6 points. No HCC was observed in the low-risk group. Five-year cumulative incidence rates of HCC were 1.9% in the intermediate-risk group and 15.3% in the high-risk group. The prediction model at SVR12 most accurately predicted HCC development compared with other time points. This simple scoring system combining factors at SVR12 can accurately evaluate HCC risk after DAA treatment.

Trends in hepatocellular carcinoma rates by age, region, race, and ethnicity: A SEER database population study 2000-2019.

e16179 Background: Liver cancer (LC) incidence has tripled over the past four decades, with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) being the most common type (72%). Further, LC mortality often coincides with incidence, as the disease is often fatal. To illustrate, the five-year survival rate (2012-2018) for LC is 21% at all stages, compared to lung cancer at 23% and colon cancer at 65%. While incidence and death rates of LC have stabilized in the past 5 years, troubling disparities have been identified when rates are stratified by region, age, race, and ethnicity. For example, HCC incidence in rural areas has increased by 5.7% annually, with rates approaching that of urban ones, despite a historically lower incidence. Consequently, as several inequalities in HCC have been established, the study herein aims to identify whether recognition of these disparities has helped to reduce their growth. Methods: We identified incidence rates of HCC from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results Program database at 4-year time intervals from 2000-2019, stratified by age above (&gt;) and below (&lt;) 60, metropolitan (M) vs nonmetropolitan (NM) counties, race, and ethnicity. Next, we calculated percent change and percent difference in HCC rates across time intervals and groups to evaluate trends. Results: Percent change in rates of HCC has increased since 2000 in those &gt;60 in both M and NM areas with larger growth observed in NM counties. Conversely, between 2010 and 2019 HCC rates have declined in those &lt;60, with a steeper decline observed in M (-18.2%) vs NM (-10.0%) counties. Alarmingly, when 2015-2019 HCC rates are stratified by race/ethnicity, each minority group studied exhibited considerably higher rates of HCC when compared to whites and non-Latinos of the same age group and region (percent difference = &gt;60 M; &gt;60 NM; &lt;60 M; &lt;60 NM): Black (50.3%; 37.2%; 24.1%; 26.6%), American Indian (21.2%; 85.8%; 7.6%; 77.5%), Asian (17.3%; 17.8%; 21.1%; 28.1%), and Latino (39.0%; 45.6%; 40.0%; 36.1%). [Reference: white rates = 35.4; 31.7; 5.1; 4.9 and non-Latino rates = 36.5; 33; 2.4; 2.5, respectively, per 100,000 and age adjusted to the 2000 US Standard Population]. Conclusions: Recent data describes a stabilization in LC incidence and death rates over the past 5 years. However, when HCC incidence is stratified by age, region, race, and ethnicity, disconcerting trends continue to be revealed. As such, interventions should be targeted at those &gt;60, living in NM areas, and in the minority groups studied to combat these disparities. [Table: see text]

Hepatocellular Carcinoma: a Narrative Review on Current Knowledge and Future Prospects.

Hepatocellular carcinoma is the fourth leading cause of cancer-related deaths worldwide and its associated mortality rate is expected to rise within the next decade. The incidence rate of hepatocellular carcinoma varies significantly across countries and the latter can be attributed to the differences in risk factors that are prevalent across different countries. Some of the risk factors associated with hepatocellular carcinoma include hepatitis B and C infections, non-alcoholic fatty liver disease, and alcoholic liver disease. Regardless of the underlying aetiology, the end result is liver fibrosis and cirrhosis that ultimately progress into carcinoma. The treatment and management of hepatocellular carcinoma is complicated by treatment resistance and high tumor recurrence rates. Early stages of hepatocellular carcinoma are treated with liver resection and other forms of surgical therapy. Advanced stages of hepatocellular carcinoma can be treated with chemotherapy, immunotherapy, and the use of oncolytic viruses and these treatment options can be combined with nanotechnology to improve efficacy and reduce side effects. Moreover, chemotherapy and immunotherapy can be combined to further improve treatment efficacy and overcome resistance. Despite the treatment options available, the high mortality rates provide evidence that current treatment options for advanced-stage hepatocellular carcinoma are not achieving the desired therapeutic goals. Various clinical trials are ongoing to improve treatment efficacy, reduce recurrence rates, and ultimately prolong survival. This narrative review aims to provide an update on our current knowledge and future direction of research on hepatocellular carcinoma.

Prevention of Hepatocellular Carcinoma (HCC). White Paper of the Texas Collaborative Center for Hepatocellular Cancer (TeCH) Multi-stakeholder Conference

Texas has the highest age-adjusted incidence rate of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in the United States. The Cancer Prevention and Research Institute of Texas has funded the Texas Collaborative Center for Hepatocellular Cancer (TeCH) to facilitate HCC research, education, and advocacy activities with the overall goal of reducing HCC mortality in Texas through coordination, collaboration, and advocacy. On September 17, 2022, TeCH co-sponsored a multi-stakeholder conference on HCC with the Baker Institute Center for Health and Biosciences. This conference was attended by HCC researchers, policy makers, payers, members from pharmaceutical industry and patient advocacy groups in and outside of Texas. This report summarizes the results of the conference. The goal of this meeting was to identify different strategies for preventing HCC and evaluate their readiness for implementation. We call for a statewide (1) viral hepatitis elimination program; (2) program to increase nonalcoholic steatohepatitis and obesity awareness; (3) research program to develop health care models that integrate alcohol associated liver disease treatment and treatment for alcohol use disorder; and (4) demonstration projects to evaluate the effectiveness of identifying and linking patient with advanced fibrosis and cirrhosis to clinical care.

Different mutation rates in the basal core promoter and precore regions between hepatitis B virus subgenotype F1b clusters.

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) is the main etiological agent of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) worldwide. It has been classified into nine genotypes and several subgenotypes, with uneven global distribution. There is growing evidence that the viral genotype influences the course and outcome of chronic hepatitis B infection. Two evolutionarily different clusters of the subgenotype F1b, called basal and cosmopolitan, have been described. The two clusters have constrained geographical distribution, with the particular feature that the basal cluster is present in regions of high HCC incidence, while the Cosmopolitan cluster is found in regions of low HCC incidence. The BCP/pC region was sequenced in 68 cases chronically infected with the F1b subgenotype to determine if there was a differential pattern of pathogenic-associated mutations between both clusters. Twenty-two of the 68 cases belonged to the subgenotype F1b basal cluster and 46 to the cosmopolitan cluster. Among the HBeAg-negative patients the A1762T/G1764A and G1896A mutations were more frequently found in the basal samples (85.7 and 92.9%) compared to the cosmopolitan ones (50 and 18.2%). Interestingly, no HBeAg loss-associated mutations were observed in 7.1 and 36.4% of the basal and cosmopolitan cases, respectively. The different rate of mutations associated with a more severe course of chronic hepatitis in the basal cluster would support the difference in the HCC incidence rate in the geographical regions where the basal cluster is restricted.

Comparison of acknowledged hepatocellular carcinoma risk scores in high-risk hepatitis C patients with sustained virological response.

Hepatitis C patients with advanced fibrosis or cirrhosis are at high risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) even after sustained virological response (SVR). Several HCC risk scores have been developed but which one is most suitable for this population is unclear. In this study, we compared the prediction ability of the aMAP model, THRI model, PAGE-B model and Models of HCV in a prospective hepatitis C cohort in order to propose better model(s) to clinical practice. Adult hepatitis C patients with baseline advanced fibrosis (141 cases), compensated cirrhosis (330 cases) and decompensated cirrhosis (80 cases) were included and followed up every 6 months for about 7 years or until HCC development. Demographic data, medical history and laboratory results were recorded. HCCs were diagnosed by radiography, AFP or liver histology. The median follow-up period was 69.93(60.99-74.93) months, during which 53 (9.62%) patients developed HCC. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve of aMAP, THRI, PAGE-B and Models of HCV scores were 0.74, 0.72, 0.70 and 0.63 respectively. The predictive power of the aMAP model score was comparable to that of THRI, PAGE-Band higher than that of Models of HCV (p < 0.05). Dividing patients into non-high-risk and high-risk groups, the cumulative incidence rates of HCC based on aMAP, THRI, PAGE-B and Models of HCV was 5.57% vs. 24.17%, 1.10% vs. 13.90%, 5.80% vs. 15.90% and 6.41% vs. 13.81% (all p < 0.05). The AUC of the four models were all below 0.7 in male while all were higher than 0.7 in female. The performance of all the models was not influenced by fibrosis stage. aMAP, THRI model and PAGE-B model were all performed well while THRI model and PAGE-B model were easier to calculate. There was no need to select score according to fibrosis stage but should be caution when explain the results in male patients.